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Euro falls after dovish ECB
  + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The ECB eased the pace of its interest rate hikes on Thursday with a 25-basis-point increase to its three policy rates, the smallest since it started lifting them last summer. "The ECB is clearly striking a more balanced tone and the market is pricing a bit of that, the euro is depreciating and pricing for interest rate hikes at future meetings is coming down, but just a little bit." The Fed has guided markets away from the possibility of rate cuts this year, though markets are pricing them in nonetheless. The Norwegian crown took a short trip after Norway's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. It initially softened sharply against the euro and dollar, but recovered.
That would catapult the United States into recession during the second half of 2023 (Europe and the UK will feel it even earlier). It’s possible that the economy sees disinflation in a way that it hasn’t in previous cycles.”Has the gig economy peaked? So is the height of the gig economy behind us? “It hasn’t changed anything about the odds of a recession,” the chief executive said in response to a question from CNN during a press call. “Down the road, rates going way up, real estate, recession — that’s a whole different issue.
First-quarter GDP could be quite strong: BNY Mellon's Meskin
  + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFirst-quarter GDP could be quite strong: BNY Mellon's MeskinSonia Meskin, head of U.S. macro at BNY Mellon Investment Management, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Federal Reserve's next meeting, Friday morning's PMI data, and more.
Watch CNBC's full interview with BNY Mellon IM's Sonia Meskin
  + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with BNY Mellon IM's Sonia MeskinSonia Meskin, head of U.S. macro at BNY Mellon Investment Management, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Federal Reserve's next meeting, Friday morning's PMI data, and more.
REUTERS/Brittany Hosea-Small/File Photo/File PhotoPARIS, April 19 (Reuters) - The biggest threat to the economic outlook is a credit squeeze that has not finished filtering through the financial system, a senior official at Fidelity Investments told a European equities conference on Wednesday. The "biggest threat" to the economy is a "true and visible credit crunch", Romain Boscher, chairman of the board at Fidelity Investments, which has about $4.5 trillion of assets under management, told the conference. Higher rates should be a permanent expectation, he said. Dhar said if credit conditions tightened enough, the U.S. would slip into a recession in the second half of the year. Harsher economic conditions and higher rates have changed priorities for asset manager portfolios, both said.
REUTERS/Brittany Hosea-Small/File Photo/File PhotoPARIS, April 19 (Reuters) - The biggest threat to the economic outlook is a credit squeeze that has not finished filtering through the financial system, two senior asset managers told a European equities conference on Wednesday. For asset managers, hedge funds and traders gathered in Paris for the Tradetech equity trading conference, recession risks were a key talking point. Higher rates should be a permanent expectation, he said. Dhar said if credit conditions tightened enough, the U.S. would slip into a recession in the second half of the year. Harsher economic conditions and higher rates have changed priorities for asset manager portfolios, both said.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSignificant tightening of financial conditions in the months ahead, strategist saysAninda Mitra of BNY Mellon Investment Management says "there's no costless way of reducing inflation."
[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 10, 2023. The annual 5% headline rise for U.S. inflation was the smallest since May 2021 and down from 9.1% last June. The dollar index was down 0.2%, near its lowest in two months, while U.S. stock futures , rose 0.1-0.2%, suggesting a modest rally at the open. The Aussie dollar rose 0.6% on the back of surprise surges in both Chinese exports, which rose 14.8% compared with last March, and domestic Australian jobs. Alibaba shares (9988.HK) fell by as much as 5% at one stage, but later pared losses to close 2% lower.
BNY Mellon also interviewed 100 global asset managers with $60 trillion in assets under management. One is that the investment industry isn't engaging women to the same degree as men, BNY Mellon's research found. Then there is the high hurdle of the disposable income women think they need to have before they invest. On average, women around the world believe they need $4,092 a month before they would consider investing any of it, BNY Mellon found. "Once you control for income, many of those differences between men and women and investing behaviors kind of disappear.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe BoJ doesn't want to deliver a 'rate shock' to the economy: Investment management firmAninda Mitra of BNY Mellon Investment Management says the Bank of Japan has "begun to shift in a direction … where the destination is quite clear."
Fresh projections by Fed policymakers released after next week's meeting are expected to reflect that, along with a forecast for no cuts to the policy rate until 2024. Reuters GraphicsThat could feed into arguments that the economy and labor markets are poised to weaken next year, easing inflation pressures. And those drops came despite the Fed lifting its policy rate by three-quarters-of-a-percentage point, to 3.75%-4% in early November. Meanwhile, unemployment has stayed at a low 3.7%, below where Fed policymakers had thought it would be as tighter policy slowed the economy. Reuters GraphicsPart of the reason the Fed may be more comfortable with easing financial conditions now than in the summer is simply that the Fed has already raised interest rates by nearly 4 percentage points.
Index funds tend to be cheaper. Obviously, index provider S&P Global (SPGI) has a vested interest in promoting passive funds backed to various benchmark indexes. Even legendary investing guru Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) has extolled the virtues of index funds for average investors. He noted that just one of every four active funds beat their passive benchmarks over the ten years ending in June. That’s why some investors aren’t singing a funeral dirge for active stock picking – just yet.
Speculation about a potentially more dovish Fed - despite U.S. inflation remaining hot - was visible in money markets. But they climbed back again, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields up at 4.229% and two-year note yields at 4.498%. On the long end, 30-year Treasury yields rose to an 11-year high of 4.359%. "If the Fed is going to be data dependent, these data points should be a focus point for them. Whether or not that actually happens, is yet to be seen," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.
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