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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to a news conference following the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on September 18, 2024 in Washington, DC. This week's inflation data provided more evidence that the Federal Reserve is nearing its objective, fresh on the heels of the central bank's dramatic interest rate cut just a few weeks ago. Consumer and producer price indexes for September both came in around expectations, showing that inflation is drifting down to the central bank's 2% target. The Wall Street investment bank on Friday projected that the Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures price index for September will show a 12-month inflation rate of 2.04% when it is released later this month. The Fed prefers the PCE as its inflation gauge though it uses a variety of inputs to make decisions.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Washington , DC, Commerce, Fed, PCE, Chicago Fed, CNBC Locations: Washington ,
SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. "I am totally comfortable with skipping [rate cuts for] a meeting if the data suggests that's appropriate," Bostic told The Wall Street Journal in an interview Thursday. The data suggests so. "This choppiness to me is along the lines of maybe we should take a pause in November," said Bostic, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee.
Persons: SeongJoon Cho, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Joseph Brusuelas, Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Hakyung Kim Organizations: AMD, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Federal, Market, RSM Locations: Pike, Seattle , Washington, US
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. "I am totally comfortable with skipping [rate cuts for] a meeting if the data suggests that's appropriate," Bostic told The Wall Street Journal in an interview Thursday. The data suggests so. But Bostic acknowledged it's important to see whether individual data points cohere into a larger pattern, or if they're just "janky," as Bostic put it.
Persons: Justin Sullivan, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Joseph Brusuelas, Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Hakyung Kim Organizations: Getty, CNBC, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Federal, Market, RSM Locations: San Rafael , California
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., September 18, 2024. REUTERS/Tom BrennerFalling interest rates are usually good news for banks, especially when the cuts aren't a harbinger of recession. That's because lower rates will slow the migration of money that's happened over the past two years as customers shifted cash out of checking accounts and into higher-yielding options like CDs and money market funds. When the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point last month, it signaled a turning point in its stewardship of the economy and telegraphed its intention to cut rates by another two full percentage points, according to the central bank's projections, boosting prospects for banks. The bank is expected to report $4.01 per share in earnings, a 7.4% drop from the year-earlier period.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Tom Brenner, Chris Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Locations: Washington , U.S
In today's big story, we got our first interest-rate cut, but it doesn't feel like it for many consumers . We finally got an interest-rate cut, but borrowing costs are still high. First off, last month's interest-rate cut wasn't going to provide immediate relief. Yes, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has gone up 47 basis points since the Fed cut rates , writes BI's Matthew Fox. So the Fed cut rates but borrowing costs went up?
Persons: , Milton, Alyssa Powell, isn't materializing, Jennifer Sor, Let's, BI's Matthew Fox, I'm, It's, BI's James Rodriguez, who's, Warren Faidley, Hurricane Milton, Hindenburg, Chelsea Jia Feng, Vinod Khosla, OpenAI, Mark Zuckerbergs, Gen Zers, haven't, Rebecca Zisser, Elon Musk's, Tesla, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi, Amanda Yen Organizations: Business, Service, Gas, Hindenburg, Tech, DOJ, Google, Walt Disney World, Hurricane Milton, Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, Hurricane, Energy, Futures, Bank of America, Disney Locations: Florida, Warren, Tampa, Chelsea, Robotaxi, Hurricane, New York, London
Last month, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by a half point – the first time the central bank cut rates since 2020. Since the Sept. 18 meeting, the market has moved even higher, with all three major averages gaining between 1% and 3%. The bank noted that several of the companies in the screen have lagged the cyclical recovery, making the stocks likely to benefit from the market's ongoing rotation. JPMorgan rates Alaska Air overweight. Wall Street is rather bullish on the name, as 10 of the 14 analysts covering the stock have a buy or strong buy rating.
Persons: Dubravko, Bujas, E.l.f, Tarang Amin, CNBC's, Brian Niccol, Elliott Hill Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve, Federal, Fed, Alaska Air, Hawaiian Airlines, U.S . Department, Starbucks, Nike
"A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization." Since the meeting, economic indicators have showed that the labor market is perhaps stronger than officials favoring the 50 basis point move had expected. The minutes noted that the vote to approve the 50 basis point cut came "in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks" against the labor market. Though the document was more detailed about the debate over whether to approve the 25 basis point cut, there was not as much information about why voters supported the larger move. Since the Fed meeting, both the 10- and 2-year Treasury yields have surged about 40 basis points.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Market, Treasury Locations: WASHINGTON
A television broadcasts the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Sept. 18, 2024. Roche said the figures made the Fed's "jumbo interest rate cut look silly, populist and panicky." 1 is that [it gives the impression that] the economy is more fragile than it is ... and the economy is fine, thank you very much, and doesn't need jumbo rate cuts," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." And headline and core inflation will stay above the Fed target of 2%, so the case for aggressive rate cuts [is not there]," he said. "Yes there is a case for modest rate cuts, there is a case for 25 to 50 basis point cuts by January next year, but a case for 50 basis point cut at the next meeting just does not exist," Parker said.
Persons: Michael Nagle, David Roche, Roche, CNBC's, " Roche, Bob Parker, Parker, Dave Pierce Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Quantum, Federal, Market, International Capital Markets Association, Fed, Global, Capital, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Israel, U.S
CNBC's Jim Cramer reviewed next week's top market-moving action, highlighting new consumer price index data and a slew of earnings reports as the season begins, including ones from Delta , Domino's and several major banks. The labor department will release September's CPI report on Thursday, and Cramer said investors who want a rate cut are hoping for a cool number. Friday brings the producer price index report, and like the CPI, this data will be a metric for the Fed's next decision, Cramer said. Big ticket financial earnings will also come out that day, including Wells Fargo , JPMorgan and Blackrock . He said banks represent the least expensive group on the market, and investors should use any weakness to buy them.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, he's, Delta, Tesla Organizations: Wall, PepsiCo, General Motors, Federal, Big Tech, AMD, HP Enterprise, Big, JPMorgan, Blackrock Locations: Delta, Domino's, Wells Fargo
"It also increases the possibility of a no-landing as well, meaning even stronger economic data for 2025 than we currently expect." watch nowBeyond that, it virtually eliminated any chance that the Federal Reserve would be repeating its half percentage point interest rate cut from September anytime soon. But broadly speaking, the news was very good and raised questions over just how aggressive the Fed will need to be. Jones said the Fed will have a dilemma on its hand as it figures out the proper policy response. "In an election year, passions run high and every economic report or event can garner intense reaction.
Persons: Anna Rose Layden, We've, Beth Ann Bovino, Friday's nonfarm, Dow Jones, Bovino, David Royal, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Jones, they're, Elizabeth Renter Organizations: Outfitters, Getty, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Fed, Fed Bank of America, Wall, U.S Locations: Tysons , Virginia, U.S
Great news for Club stocks Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley : The rebound in investment banking isn't over yet. We'll find out to what extent when Wells Fargo reports earnings on Oct. 11 and Morgan Stanley delivers quarterly results on Oct. 16. MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley (MS) year-to-date performance For Morgan Stanley, a resurgence in its investment banking division is crucial to our investment thesis and why we stuck with it. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date Morgan Stanley's IB business is much larger than Wells Fargo's. Wells Fargo, which has a strong wealth management franchise, is branching out to take a slice of the IB pie.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, We'll, Wells, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rebecca Brokmeier, Brokmeier, Morgan, Jim Cramer, Goldman Sachs, underperformance, Dan Simkowitz, Jim, We've, Charlie Scharf, Jim Cramer's, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker Organizations: Club, Wells, Federal Reserve, Wall, P Global Market Intelligence, KPMG, Global, Fed, National Association for Business, CNBC, Morgan Stanley's IB, IB, Bloomberg News, Federal, Getty Locations: U.S, Nashville , Tennessee, Wells, Wells Fargo, Washington , DC
But we are not on any preset course,” he told the National Association for Business Economics in prepared remarks. A basis point equals 0.01%. “We do not believe that we need to see further cooling in labor market conditions to achieve 2 percent inflation,” Powell added. For his part, Powell expressed confidence in economic strength and sees inflation continuing to cool. Broader economic conditions also set the table for further disinflation.”Following the speech, Powell was scheduled to sit for a question-and-answer session with Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , ” Powell, Powell, , Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, Committee, Fed Locations: Nashville
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak Monday to the National Association for Business Economists during the organization's annual conference in Nashville. The central bank chair is delivering his assessment on the economy as well as his policy views. Following the speech, Powell will speak in a moderated discussion with Ellen Zentner, global head of thematic and macro investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. The speech comes less than two weeks after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee approved a half-percentage-point reduction in its key overnight borrowing rate, the first rate reduction in more than four years. Markets expect the Fed to follow up with additional cuts this year and in 2025 depending on the path of the economic data.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Ellen Zentner Organizations: National Association for Business Economists, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, CNBC, YouTube Locations: Nashville
The Treasury market, though, hasn’t been paying attention. Officials penciled in another 50 basis points in reductions by the end of the year and another 100 by the end of 2025. That sentiment is evident in the “breakeven” inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. Taken together, the various dynamics in the Treasury market are making it a difficult time for investors.
Persons: hasn’t, , Jonathan Duensing, — haven’t, , Robert Tipp, We’re, Jerome, Powell, ” Duensing, Tom Garretson, “ They’d, There’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation, RBC Wealth Management
The Treasury market, though, hasn't been paying attention. Watching the curveThe difference between the 10- and 2-year notes has widened significantly, increasing by about 12 basis points since the Fed meeting. That sentiment is evident in the "breakeven" inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. watch nowFed officials aim for a 2% inflation rate, and none of the principal gauges are there yet.
Persons: Anna Moneymaker, hasn't, Jonathan Duensing, — haven't, Robert Tipp Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation Locations: Washington , DC
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday she thought her colleagues should have taken a more measured approach to last week’s half percentage point interest rate cut as she worries that inflation could reignite. In explaining her rationale, Bowman said the half percentage point, or 50 basis point, reduction posed a number of risks to the Fed’s twin goals of achieving low inflation and full employment. Though Bowman favored a reduction, she preferred the Fed lower by a quarter percentage point, more in line with the traditional moves at the central bank. In recent statements, Fed officials have cited easing inflation and a softening labor market as justification for the cut. At last week’s meeting, individual policymakers indicated they expect another half percentage point in cuts this year and another full point in 2025.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Organizations: Federal Locations: Kentucky
The Federal Reserve's move to lower interest rates by 50 basis points puts the U.S. economy on track for a soft landing, according to Goldman Sachs ' chief financial officer. His comments come as market participants question whether the U.S. central bank's jumbo rate cut has been delivered in time to bring down inflation without pushing the economy into recession. Some analysts have raised concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy, warning that similar supersized rate cuts couldn't avert the recessions of the early 2000s and the global financial crisis. One basis point equals 0.01%. It was the first time the FOMC had cut by that much since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, and, before that, the global financial crisis in 2008.
Persons: Goldman Sachs Locations: U.S
Citi Private Bank's latest Global Family Office survey showed that family offices had already been moving into risk assets well before the central bank began cutting. Citi Private Bank's latest Global Family Office survey. Related storiesSo far, the move toward equities has translated into a rush for big tech's AI, which remains a favorite among family offices. AdvertisementWhen it comes to real estate, family offices often prefer private investments. AdvertisementFixed incomeThe number one goal for any family office is the preservation of capital.
Persons: , Richard Weintraub, Bank's, haven't, Weintraub, REITs Organizations: Service, Citi, Bank's, Business, Treasury Locations: American
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday she thought her colleagues should have taken a more measured approach to last week's half percentage point interest rate cut as she worries that inflation could reignite. In explaining her rationale, Bowman said the half percentage point, or 50 basis point, reduction posed a number of risks to the Fed's twin goals of achieving low inflation and full employment. Though Bowman favored a reduction, she preferred the Fed lower by a quarter percentage point, more in line with the traditional moves at the central bank. In recent statements, Fed officials have cited easing inflation and a softening labor market as justification for the cut. At last week's meeting, individual policymakers indicated they expect another half percentage point in cuts this year and another full point in 2025.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman Organizations: Federal Locations: Kentucky
CNBC Daily Open: Vaguely reassuring Fedspeak
  + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. In an interview with CNBC, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said, "We still have a strong, healthy labor market. But I want to keep it a strong, healthy labor market." Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic was more circumspect.
Persons: IXIC BRBY, Jerome Powell, Michael Nagle, Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, yesterday's Fedspeak, Dow, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Alex Harring Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Market, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Minneapolis, Atlanta Fed, National Association of State, Chicago Fed, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: New York, U.S
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Monday that he expects policymakers to dial down the pace of interest rate cuts after last week's half percentage point reduction. "I think after 50 basis points, we're still in a net tight position," Kashkari said in a CNBC "Squawk Box" interview. "Right now, we still have a strong, healthy labor market. In their latest economic projections, FOMC members indicated that rate is probably around 2.9%; the current fed funds rate is targeted between 4.75% and 5%. Speaking separately Monday morning, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated he expects the Fed to move aggressively in getting back to a neutral rate.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, we're, Kashkari, Kasharki, Raphael Bostic, Bostic Organizations: Minneapolis Federal, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed Locations: Minneapolis
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday he supported a half percentage point rate cut at this week's meeting because inflation is falling even faster than he had expected. A week before the Fed meeting, markets were overwhelmingly pricing in a 25 basis point cut. Along with the decision, individual officials signaled the likelihood of another half point in cuts this year, followed by a full percentage point of reductions in 2025. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman was the only Federal Open Market Committee member to vote against the reduction, instead preferring a smaller quarter percentage point cut. "I was a big advocate of large rate hikes when inflation was moving much, much faster than any of us expected," he said.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Fed, Market, Commerce Department
It also means lots of talk from the experts about "normalizing the yield curve" in the bond market — meaning getting back to a setup where bonds with longer maturities yield higher rates than those with shorter-term maturities. That's referred to as "yield curve inversion," which has historically signaled an upcoming recession. Currently, however, the yield curve looks more like a check mark than a gradually rising hill. An inverted Treasury yield curve messes with that dynamic. Everyone, from private citizens to multinational corporations benefits from a normalized yield curve because normal means less uncertainty, which means more predictability.
Persons: Jerome Powell, shouldn't, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, CNBC, Federal, Getty Locations: U.S, Washington , DC
Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. By contrast, the prevailing sentiment among experts was that a 25-point cut was more likely, according to a CNBC survey. And he was likely aware that a bigger-than-usual cut might connote that the Fed's worried about the economy. "I don't see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession, sorry, of a downturn, is elevated," Powell said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Jeff Cox, Yun Li, Hakyung Kim, Samantha Subin Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Getty, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Washington , DC
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang presents the Nvidia Blackwell platform at an event ahead of the COMPUTEX Forum, in Taipei, Taiwan, on June 2, 2024. Led by a 7.4% gain in shares of Tesla and a 4% jump in Nvidia , the Nasdaq rose 2.5% on Thursday, its fourth-sharpest rally of 2024. Nvidia, whose processors are powering the generative AI boom and services like OpenAI's ChatGPT, gained 4% on Thursday to $117.87. Su said AI is going to make its way into "all aspects of our lives," including education and drug development. Among the other top tech companies, Apple and Meta also closed with big gains, each rising almost 4%.
Persons: Jensen Huang, Nvidia Blackwell, it's, they're, Lisa Su, Jim Cramer, Su, Tesla Organizations: Nvidia, COMPUTEX, Investors, Federal Reserve, Tesla, Nasdaq, Federal, Market, Microsoft, Oracle, Devices, Broadcom, AMD, Apple, Meta Locations: Taipei, Taiwan
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