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European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. "It's such a close call between the pause and the rate hike," said ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski. Traders are torn but favour an ECB pause, pricing in around a 40% chance of a hike. For many economists, one thing is clear: if the ECB has further tightening to deliver, September is likely its last chance. Even the hawks, keeping a hike on the table, say fresh ECB projections on Thursday are key to the decision.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Reinhard Cluse, Mario Centeno, Isabel Schnabel, Austria's Robert Holzmann, Iain Stealey, Philip Lane, Kaspar Hense, Yoruk Bahceli, Stefano Rebaudo, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Central Bank, Traders, UBS, JPMorgan Asset Management, Reuters, ING, BlueBay Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy

But speaking on Wednesday, the last day before the ECB's self-imposed quiet period, the Dutch, French, German and Slovak central bank chiefs all said the Governing Council's decision was still open. France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau hinted that a fresh rate hike could still come at a later date and argued that the slowdown is not a recession and that the ECB needed to persevere in its fight with inflation. Slovakia's Peter Kazimir, an outspoken policy hawk, was more explicit, arguing that another hike was still needed to tame inflation. He said the ECB could delay a rate rise to one of its autumn meetings or pull the trigger next week. "It would be wrong to bet on a rapid decrease in interest rates after the peak," Nagel told German business daily Handelsblatt.

Persons: Nagel, France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Peter Kazimir, Kazimir, Klaas Knot, Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, " Nagel, Robert Holzmann, Mario Centeno, Akanksha Khushi, Catherine Evans Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, Bloomberg, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, PARIS, Slovak

☆ Euro zone growth risks materialising, warranting ECB caution: Centeno
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The ECB is debating whether to raise rates again in September to combat stubborn underlying price growth or pause given the weakening outlook that is now raising recession fears. "We need to be very cautious about our decisions, because a lot has been done," Centeno told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. "The labour market in Europe is performing in a novel way... I see a degree of flexibility in the European labour market that we were not used to see in the past," Centeno said. "This will ease wage pressures in our labour market, contrary to what we have [been used to] in the past."

Persons: Mario Centeno, Pedro Nunes, Centeno, Mehnaz Yasmin, Balazs Koranyi, Alison Williams, Mike Harrison Organizations: Bank of Portugal, European Central Bank, Bank of, REUTERS, Rights, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson Locations: Bank of Portugal, Carregado, Alenquer, Portugal, Europe

☆ The ECB is getting close to the terminal rate, says Governing Council member
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe ECB is getting close to the terminal rate, says Governing Council memberThe ECB should be predictable on the path for rates after the summer break, says Bank of Portugal Governor Mario Centeno, who discussed when the central bank might stop hiking — or reach the so called terminal rate.

Persons: Mario Centeno Organizations: ECB, Bank, Portugal

☆ Stocks rise as U.S. inflation trends lower, bond yields slide
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The odds of the Fed cutting rates later this year also increased. Consumer prices decelerated to 4.9% year-on-year, the 10th straight month of slowdown as prices react to the Fed's rate-tightening cycle. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with rate expectations, slid from 4.05% before the CPI news and dropped to 3.908%. The dollar index eased 0.20% and equity markets rose as the CPI data suggested the Fed's most aggressive rate hikes in four decades were yielding results. U.S. crude futures fell 1.6% to settle at $72.56 a barrel, and Brent settled down 1.3% at $76.41 a barrel.

The likelihood the Fed cuts rates later this year also increased. "The Fed does not aim get rate policy right just in time, they aim to get it right over time." Consumer prices decelerated to 4.9% year-on-year, the 10th straight month of slowdown as prices react to the Fed's rate-tightening cycle. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with rate expectations, slid from 4.05% before the CPI news and dropped to 3.904%. Gold prices slipped as the CPI data was viewed as mixed and triggered profit-taking by some investors.

☆ 'We can achieve more with less,' ECB's Centeno says on monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'We can achieve more with less,' ECB's Centeno says on monetary policyMario Centeno, governor of the Bank of Portugal, tells CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche that the ECB will be watching the data before deciding its next steps, but also says he has one key message: "We can achieve more with less."

☆ ECB confronts a cold reality: companies are cashing in on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

"It's clear that profit expansion has played a larger role in the European inflation story in the last six months or so," said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. "The ECB has failed to justify what it's doing in the context of a more profit-focused inflation story." Instead, national accounts and earnings reports from listed companies are being used as proxies to paint the inflation picture. "The main story of the risks going forward is still that there's a looming wage-price spiral which should make the central bank even more aggressive in hiking interest rates." loadingloadingEven inside the ECB, labour representatives demanding higher pay for central bank staff have distanced themselves from what they described as the institution's "anti-worker bias".

ECB President Christine Lagarde, speaking in Davos recently, stressed the need for monetary policy to "stay the course." "There were questions recently about why markets don't understand what the ECB will do next," said ING's Brzeski. With updated ECB projections not out until March, Lagarde is likely to be pressed on how the ECB views core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. The ECB targets headline inflation at 2%, but officials are focused on a core measure. Reuters Graphics5/ Is the ECB more upbeat on the growth outlook?

☆ China's reopening fuels global growth optimism, Davos panel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Arnd WiegmannFRANKFURT, Jan 17 (Reuters) - China's reopening from pandemic restrictions could drive global growth beyond expectations and help avoid a broader recession even as some of the world's largest economies struggle to overcome a downturn, top finance officials at the World Economic Forum said. 'STRONG LABOUR MARKETS'Peterson said he still expected a "very mild" recession in the United States, Europe and the Britain, but full year net growth was still going to be positive. "Strong labour markets are not consistent with what we see with a recession and the labour markets are strong almost everywhere in the world," he added. Credit Suisse Chairman Axel Lehmann said he even hoped the United States could avoid a recession, but he too put his bets on China. "I also think that the economy has been surprising us quarter after quarter; the fourth quarter in Europe will be most likely still positive," Centeno said.

☆ Profit margin growth 'unsustainable' -ECB's Centeno
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Evidence from Portugal suggests some companies in the euro zone have been able to increase profit margins at a rate that risks hampering efforts to bring inflation down, Portuguese central bank governor Mario Centeno said on Wednesday. "The numbers for Portugal are very clear: profit margins increased quite a bit in 2022," Centeno, who sits on the European Central Bank's rate-setting council, told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. "That is not sustainable, not only because that will have an impact on prices, but also on demand. However, Centeno said it was clear that company margin increases had as much potential as wage gains to force monetary policy to react if they were fueling inflationary pressures. "1% point of extra margins or 1% of wages will prevent inflation from coming down.

☆ Profit margin growth 'unsustainable,' ECB's Centeno says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

☆ ECB’s Centeno says all forecasts show growth picking up in the second half of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB’s Centeno says all forecasts show growth picking up in the second half of 2023European Central Bank board member and Bank of Portugal Governor Mario Centeno discusses the growth outlook for the euro zone and the likelihood of further interest rate hikes.

☆ ECB's Centeno projects 'a few' more rate hikes in the next couple of meetings 'at least'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

DAVOS, Switzerland — There will be "at least" a few more rate hikes in the next couple of meetings, an ECB member told CNBC Tuesday. December inflation came in at 9.2% in the euro zone, according to preliminary numbers. "We have and can expect a few more rate hikes in the next couple of meetings at least," Mario Centeno, Governor of the Bank of Portugal, said in Davos. The latest ECB projections suggest a growth rate of 0.5% for the euro zone in 2023, followed by 1.9% in 2024. Economists have become more positive on the euro zone outlook in recent weeks.

☆ Morning Bid: Ugly duckling
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaWhile Chinese economic data didn't come in worse than markets had feared, investors still couldn't come to terms with the scale of the economic pain being felt in the world's second-largest economy. Asian stock markets dipped and the broad-based MSCI's Asia Pacific share index outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) retreated away from seven-month highs, and Chinese equities stocks also retreated. European and UK stock futures, however, pointed to a steady start. The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) is just a whisker away from its record high of 7,903.5 points. Tuesday's batch of economic data coming up include UK jobs numbers, German inflation and Germany's ZEW economic sentiment survey.

☆ Davos: No recession after all? Business leaders more hopeful as China reopens
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Davos, Switzerland CNN —Bullishness about the global economy has been in short supply among business leaders in recent months, with fears of recession clouding the outlook and restraining investment. That’s thanks in large part to China, whose sudden removal of strict coronavirus restrictions late last year is expected to unleash a wave of spending that may offset economic weakness in the United States and Europe. Near term, China is in the grip of its worst coronavirus outbreak, keeping many people indoors and emptying shops and restaurants in recent weeks. “I’m expecting a solid growth number for China in 2023,” said Kevin Rudd, president of the Asia Society and a former prime minister of Australia. “Maybe we will be surprised also in the first half of the year.”Averting a global recession is not a done deal, however.

☆ Euro zone economy may avoid recession, Centeno says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

FRANKFURT, Jan 17 (Reuters) - The euro zone economy may have outperformed expectations last quarter and ended 2022 with positive growth, European Central Bank policymaker Mario Centeno told the World Economic Forum in Davos. "I also think that the economy has been surprising us quarter after quarter; the fourth quarter in Europe will be most likely still positive," Centeno said. "Maybe we'll be surprised also in the first half of the year." The ECB predicted negative growth in both the fourth and first quarters before a rebound, so a positive outcome in the final months of 2022 would mean the bloc would avoid a recession, normally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Andrew HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB's Kazaks pushes back on rate cut bets as core prices rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Euro zone inflation tumbled to 9.2% last month, largely thanks to lower energy prices and a one-off subsidy in Germany, but underlying price pressures continued to rise. Kazaks said core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was the measure to watch. "It is possible for core inflation to continue trending up even as headline inflation is coming down, for instance, due to swings in energy prices," he said. "In my view, core inflation currently is a key gauge for inflation persistence and policy decisions." Finnish central bank chief Olli Rehn and Spain's Pablo Hernandez de Dos have also called on the ECB to raise rates "significantly" over its coming meetings.

☆ Morning Bid: Paging Mr. Powell
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Asian stocks edged lower on Tuesday after recent gains even as Asian tourism-focused businesses geared up for a return of Chinese tourists after the country's borders reopened on Monday. Later on Tuesday, Fed boss Powell is set to make a speech that could give further clarity on the pace of rate hikes while U.S. inflation data out on Thursday will further cement expectations. In Japan, consumer inflation exceeded the central bank's 2% target for a seventh straight month in a sign of broadening inflationary pressure. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, the French need to prepare to work longer than they do now. Reporting by Anshuman Daga; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB's Centeno: we are approaching the end of the interest rate rise process
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LISBON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - European Central Bank's governing council member Mario Centeno said on Tuesday the current process of interest rate increases is approaching its end. "We are approaching the end of the current process of interest rate hikes, I believe that is true," he said. Annual inflation in the euro zone slowed to 9.2% in December from 10.1% in November, data from Eurostat showed on Friday. The ECB forecast a gradual decline in inflation but only approaching its 2% target within three years. Reporting by Sergio Goncalves; Editing by Inti Landauro and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB's Centeno says interest rate close to peaking if no new shocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LISBON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank's key interest rate is nearing its peak amid efforts to bring down inflation, unless new external shocks emerge, ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno said on Friday. He told a conference that interest rates will rise until the ECB considers that the inflation can be brought down to its medium-term target of 2% as quickly as possible. "We are on the way to achieving it...but we cannot hesitate in this process" of controlling inflation, he said. Reporting by Sergio Goncalves, writing by Andrei KhalipOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

LISBON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Further consolidation of Portugal's banking sector is inevitable, European Central Bank member Mario Centeno told Reuters on Wednesday, calling "remarkable" the recent progress the country's banks have made on strengthening capital and reducing risk. Analysts have said that Portuguese banks should bet on M&A operations to achieve better competitive conditions, despite the five largest players' owning 80% to 85% of banking assets. Portugal's banks are still scarred from a debt crisis and a spike in NPLs after the 2010-13 recession. The NPL ratio for Portugal's lenders was 3.4% of total credit in June, versus 17.9% in mid-2016. "Although I am very satisfied with the evolution...there is no point in resting, we have to challenge ourselves," Centeno said.

☆ Morning Bid: COVID blues
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Kirsty Needham | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga:A nationwide spike in COVID-19 cases in China is again the main talking point for weary global markets on Tuesday as Beijing shut parks and museums and more cities resumed mass testing. Last week finance minister Jeremy Hunt announced tax hikes and spending cuts to fix the country's balance sheet and its economic policy reputation after former prime minister Liz Truss's controversial "mini-budget". Brent crude futures steadied at $87.85 a barrel after plunging by more than $5 a barrel to 10-month lows. Still, Brent crude is up 13% so far this year, marking one of the strongest performances in any asset class. Concerns about Genesis follow the collapse of FTX, one of the world's biggest crypto exchanges, which has shattered investor confidence.

☆ ECB can't just mirror Fed moves, Lagarde says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank must be attentive to policy decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which influence global markets, but cannot just mirror its moves, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday after the Fed guided for more rate hikes. But Lagarde said the ECB, which itself raised rates by 75 basis points last week, could not simply mimic the Fed because economic conditions were different in the 19-country euro zone - a point underscored earlier by ECB board member Fabio Panetta. Lagarde conceded the ECB was "influenced by the consequences" of Fed action through financial markets and especially the euro's exchange rate, which was falling against the U.S. dollar on Thursday. "Clearly the exchange rate matters and has to be taken into account in our inflation projections," Lagarde said. He was echoed by Portuguese central bank governor Mario Centeno, who said in an interview the ECB had already completed a large part of the rate hikes it sees as needed.

☆ Delayed, not denied
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Markets have welcomed Sunak's appointment, with sterling creeping towards a one-month high and gilts rallying on the news. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterMeanwhile, the did-they-or-didn't-they question around yen intervention continues. The beaten-down currency traded at 148.81 per dollar following two consecutive days of suspected Bank of Japan intervention straddling the weekend. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki insists the two policy objectives - monetary easing to get wage growth up and intervention to defend the yen - are not contradictory. ($1 = 0.8853 pounds)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Edmund KlamannOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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