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☆ Here are the 9 smartest ways to invest in artificial intelligence right now, according to Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Here's how Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UBS recommend investing in AI. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UBS are more optimistic about AI stocks after each expressed hesitations earlier this year as shares of companies tied to the technology exploded higher. In contrast, Morgan Stanley has dismissed concerns that AI stocks are in a bubble. "Inevitably, the market will compare AI to the dot-com boom," wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Shawn Kim in a July report. As for chipmakers, Morgan Stanley agreed with Bank of America that the path forward is bifurcated.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Marcelli, Art Cashin, Michael Hartnett, Shawn Kim, Mike Wilson, Morgan, Vivek Arya, Wilson Organizations: Wall, Bank of America, UBS, Americas, Nvidia, Marvell Technology, Broadcom, Cadence Design Systems, Bank of, Accenture, Microsoft, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Consumer Locations: California, Snowflake, OpenAI

☆ Stick with Treasurys even after Fitch downgrades U.S., UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Government bonds are still a sound investment, according to UBS. Fitch attributed the downgrade Tuesday to an "erosion of governance," referring to political standoffs around the debt limit, as well as growing debt levels. The firm expects government debt to reach 118.4% of gross domestic product by 2025. US10Y US2Y YTD line U.S. 2 year and 10 year yields Bond yields move opposite to their prices. She noted that the added benefit of having U.S. Treasurys is they offer the potential for capital appreciation if investors become concerned about slowing growth.

Persons: Fitch, Marcelli, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, ., AAA, UBS Global Wealth Management, Treasury, Federal Locations: Americas

There are two likely scenarios: The Fed raises its fed funds rate, but Powell signals the inflation fight is far from over. Market rates are likely to shoot higher, benefiting a select group of stocks highlighted below, while causing the broader market to decline. In order to do this, we used the short-term bond fund, the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF, as our proxy for the bond market. Since rates increase when bond prices fall this gives us the stocks that could win today if rates increase. If rates move higher on the Fed, Primerica can charge higher rates for its insurance and financial products.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Marcelli Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, UBS Global Wealth Management, Reserve, CNBC, Russell, Treasury Bond ETF, Primerica, PayPal

☆ Eurozone Inflation Slows, but Underlying Price Pressures Persist
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Patricia Cohen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

Growth is expected to pick up, but further increases in interest rates could act as a brake on the economy. France’s annual inflation rate fell to 5.3 percent in June, from 6 percent in May. Germany, the largest economy in Europe, saw a rise in its annual inflation rate to 6.8 percent, up from 6.3 percent in May. Inflation rates in Germany are expected to resume their fall in September. After adjusting for inflation, profits were above their prepandemic level while workers’ compensation was 2 percent below the trend in the first quarter of this year.

Persons: Gita Gopinath, Christine Lagarde, ’, Giorgia, “, Lucrezia Reichlin, Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani, Price, Lagarde Organizations: International Monetary Fund, London Business School, Oxford Economics, Ukraine — Locations: Sintra , Portugal, France, Italy, Russia, Ukraine, Germany, Europe

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks are set to suffer 'profound' losses as valuations remain at historic extremes — and dismisses the current rally as a 'narrow an
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

It also doesn't offer a fair characterization of the entire S&P 500's performance. Hussman's preferred valuation measure is total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of non-financial stocks. According to Bank of America, 80% of the S&P 500's returns over a 10-year period can be attributed to valuations. The red line in the chart below shows the gauge, while the blue is the S&P 500's price action. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, hasn't, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, David Rosenberg, Solita, 18.5x, it's, Jeremy Grantham, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, UBS, University of Pennsylvania, Housing

☆ Market momentum wanes heading into the final week of June after monster rally in the first half
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Against this backdrop, investors will head into the final week of June with a relatively light economic calendar. However, those few data sets could provide investors with clues on how the market will fare going into the second half. Key inflation data ahead Of note next week is the core personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Reports to watch out for include Tuesday's new home sales and Thursday's pending home sales data, both for May. Elsewhere, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky warned this week the downside for tech names could be as "equally impressive" as their rally.

Persons: Jerome Powell, annualized, Dow Jones, Terry Sandven, Sandven, that's, Megan Horneman, Stephen Suttmeier, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, Art Hogan, Hogan, Mills, Paychex Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Bank of England, Global Wealth Management, Americas, UBS, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Verdence Capital Advisors, Bank of America, Dow, Riley Wealth Management, Fed, Walgreens, Micron, Nike, Constellation Brands

☆ Wall Street is worried the stock market is already overvalued
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Even as the stock market is just trying to claw its way out of a bear market, multiple Wall Street firms on Thursday raised concerns that equities are already overvalued. Following a breakout in the past month, the S & P 500 is up more than 20% from its October low and is at a 13-month high. But while an official bull market is not yet confirmed (S & P 500 needs to hit a new all-time high for that), the stock market may already be overvalued, some major strategists said. .SPX ALL mountain S & P 500 long term The S & P 500 is trading at forward price-earnings ratio of 18.8, compared to the average valuation of 15.4 times the last four decades, according to UBS. Nevertheless, normally uber-bullish Wall Street is having trouble seeing boom times ahead for equity investors with valuations already so high.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, annualized, Jonathan Golub, Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Global Wealth Management, Americas, JPMorgan, Credit Suisse

☆ 'Fundamentals still matter': A portfolio manager at a firm managing $17 billion warns stocks are due to sink 15% as AI hype fuels the current rally and drowns out recession alarm bells
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Stocks are once again in a bull market, with the S&P 500 now up more than 20% since October's lows. Nearly all of the recent rally can also be attributed to the index's top 10 stocks, he said. "During the late-90s tech bubble, over one-third of returns came from these mega-cap stocks," Wool said. "In the recent bull run, by contrast, almost the entire market return was accounted for by just ten companies' performance." A 15% decline would put the S&P 500 at 3,800.

Persons: Stocks, Rayliant's Phillip Wool, Wool, Phillip Wool, Solita, Louis, …, Lauren Goodwin, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, it's, Morgan Stanley's Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: UBS, LPL Financial, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis The Conference, Wool, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Life Investments, CME Group

☆ Stocks are up big this year. But top Wall Street strategists are warning that trouble is brewing under the surface of the market — threatening to sink it.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Six months into 2023, the S&P 500 is having an impressive year, returning more than 11% so far since January. Only 44% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, according to LPL Financial. Technology and consumer are the only sectors up on the year, and even they are exhibiting narrow breadth," he said. Bank of AmericaOf course, market breadth could improve if the fundamental economic outlook improves along with investor sentiment. If the labor market stays sturdy, a stock market rally could become more sustainable.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Mike Wilson, Here's David Rosenberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Adam Turnquist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, LPL, Savita Subramanian Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, North, UBS, NYSE, Technology, of America's Locations: North American, China

☆ Investors would be wise to heed these lessons from the 'retail apocalypse' as office values reset
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Still, it is also true that a lot of disruption occurred in between the events that prompted the "apocalypse" chatter and the firmer ground where retail real estate stands today. Recalling how these events played out is helpful in understanding the situation facing U.S. office properties. For office buildings, the pandemic knocked things out of whack. The same idea is being discussed for office buildings, but one-size will not fit all. There may be no surprise that there has been a huge drop-off in the number of loans with office properties as collateral since March.

☆ Commercial real estate loan defaults will rise in a credit crunch but a crisis like 2008 is unlikely, says UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Defaults on commercial real estate loans will likely rise from a potential credit crunch, says UBS Global Wealth Management. Data from Trepp shows the delinquency rate for loans in the office market climbed in March. After the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month, investors searching for signs of further stress in the banking system are seeing problems brewing in the commercial real estate market. Roughly $5.4 trillion in CRE debt is outstanding, with $1.2 trillion set to mature this year and in 2024, said UBS, noting the figures exclude multifamily commercial real estate. The office segment among commercial real estatement sectors only represents about 15% of the total value of commercial real estate, she said.

☆ How to invest in the ChatGPT-driven AI boom: Credit Suisse shares 6 stocks they're labeling as "top picks" as their exposure to AI development opens them up to new revenue streams
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Badri's price 12-month price target for shares of Microsoft is $285. The analysts said that growing AI use cases will help Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and their high performance computing business, which has already doubled since 2016. Credit Suisse's 12-month price target for the stock is $330, which is upside of 16%. Chou has a price target of NT$1,100 for the stock, meaning 13.5% upside. Both Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Baidu are traded on US exchanges, while Accton and Wiwynn are traded in Taiwan.

☆ Artificial intelligence is on the brink of an 'iPhone moment' and can boost the world economy by $15.7 trillion in 7 years, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America strategists predicted artificial intelligence will revolutionize everything as it teeters on its "iPhone moment." Bank of AmericaLarge language models like ChatGPT make massive amounts of information accessible to everyone, without high barrier to entry or required training. In addition, the exponential rate of technological development suggests that, within a decade, AI models could be a million times more powerful than they are today. Meanwhile, UBS is forecasting that the artificial intelligence hardware and services market will reach $90 billion by 2025. In 2020, it was worth about $36 billion, per IDC and Bloomberg Intelligence data.

☆ AI is set to boom into a $90 billion industry by 2025 as ChatGPT generates investment frenzy, UBS Wealth Management CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

UBS predicted that the artificial intelligence hardware and services market will hit $90 billion by 2025. "We think the early success for chatbots could drive attract more technology talent, and drive faster adoption by enterprises and governments," UBS said. "We think the early success for chatbots could drive attract more technology talent, and drive faster adoption by enterprises and governments," Marcelli added. The market forecast predicates itself on AI being a "horizontal technology," meaning that it has important use cases across various industries. Investors are taking advantage of the frenzy, with a boost in share price for certain companies that integrate or use AI.

☆ Morgan Stanley's stock chief says a signal that flashed before the 2000, 2008, and 2020 market crashes is once again glaring red — and that big declines are still ahead for the S&P 500
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Forward earnings growth is now negative, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson points out. In a February 6 note to clients, Morgan Stanley's Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson reiterated his call that the S&P 500 hasn't seen a bottom yet. Wilson highlights this pattern in the chart below, showing forward EPS growth (yellow line) alongside S&P 500 price action (blue line). "History shows price downside is in front of us, not behind us," the chart's title reads. Morgan StanleyWilson said in December that he sees the S&P 500 bottoming between 3,000-3,300 in the first quarter before recovering to 3,900 later this year.

☆ Wall Street's biggest firms are warning their clients not to trust the stock market rally with trouble still on the way for the US economy and corporate earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks have responded positively, with the S&P 500 rising as much as 9.3% since the start of the year. "An improvement in US and global macro data has lifted the S&P 500 by 8% YTD and leads us to lift our 3-month S&P 500 target to 4000 (from 3600). Morgan StanleyMike Wilson, the bank's chief US equity strategist, has been warning of downside in the S&P 500 to fall for weeks now. In other words, this earnings recession is not priced, in our view." Wilson had the most accurate price target for the S&P 500 in 2022 among major Wall Street Strategists.

☆ Why all the big bank equity analysts think the market is going to drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After a stellar start to 2023, many big bank analysts are skeptical that this rally can continue and urge investors to prepare for another leg lower. "We believe investors should fade the YTD rally as recession risks are merely postponed rather than diminished," wrote JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic in a January note to clients. Meanwhile, Barclays' Venu Krishna wrote in a Monday note that equities have "jumped the gun." Several factors, including falling recession risks and a correction in the CBOE Volatility Index and other spreads, also support a long-due fade in the market rally, wrote Credit Suisse's Patrick Palfrey in a January note. "We continue to recommend that equity investors position defensively and be prepared for additional volatility ahead," she said.

But the headline number masked a more malignant trend, with all key components of core inflation accelerating. "Rising core inflation means that not much will sway the European Central Bank from the hawkish path it set out late last year," ING economist Bert Colijn said. The recession was expected to push up unemployment, naturally dampening price pressures. But employment, already at a record high, is actually going up, not down. "The delayed passthrough of high production costs and a still-strong labour market will sustain core inflation," Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani at Oxford Economics said.

☆ Here's how investors should play it safe for 3-6 months to set themselves up for a decade of strong performance, according to UBS
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Marley Jay | Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

UBS Global Wealth Management says the next few months will be rocky for stocks and bonds. In its 2023 outlook, UBS explained how to survive that period intact and prepare for better times. Several of the strongest forces dragging markets down will start to fade in 2023, so investors just need to hang on a little longer and wait them out, according to UBS Global Wealth Management. While this may make for a tough investing backdrop in the interim, markets should return to normal in the latter half of 2023, according to Global Wealth Management Investment Chief Mark Haefele. He says that the next decade should be a good one for diversified investors because stocks, bonds, and alternative assets have all fallen to inexpensive prices.

☆ This midterm election outcome is 'typically good for markets': What investors can expect
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Election workers open mail in ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center in Phoenix on Nov. 11, 2022. "We still effectively have kind of a balanced government, which is actually something markets usually like," Egan said. "This is typically good for markets as it reduces policy and regulatory risk," she said. Keep in mind how little control any given set of politicians has over the stock market or the economy in general. What's more, if you take investment risk off the table in response to the results, you could miss out on the market's upside.

☆ Wall Street breaks down how to trade the 2020 election, from a Trump triumph to a Biden blue wave
▼ + stars: | 2020-07-14 | by ( Business Insider | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Whether or not you're ready, that moment has arrived in the form of the US presidential election. It's less than four months away, and Wall Street has already started turning its sights on what could transpire. Here are the 6 trades it recommends to profit from a Trump triumph — and 10 for a Biden blue wave. Read the full story: GOLDMAN SACHS: Wall Street is bracing for a historically wild stock market as the presidential election nears. Exclusive interviews with Gen Z day-traders throwing Wall Street for a loopReuters / Lucas JacksonA wave of retail investors has flooded the stock market with speculative bets and unexpected picks — and Wall Street is struggling to make sense of the trend.

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