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Police officers work outside the rally site where Ecuadorean presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was killed at a campaign event in Quito, Ecuador August 9, 2023. REUTERS/Karen ToroQUITO, Aug 10 (Reuters) - The murder of Ecuadorean presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio has made some voters more wary of going to the polls on Aug. 20, making an unsettled election even harder to forecast. Voters said they were afraid of more bloodshed, with some weighing whether to comply with mandatory voting rules. "I am scared and I'm thinking about whether to go vote," said Quito manicurist Margarita Alvarado, 45. "The assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio complicates what is already an atypical and complex political crisis in Ecuador," said Verisk Maplecroft chief analyst Jimena Blanco and lead Americas analyst Eileen Gavin in a note.

Persons: Fernando Villavicencio, Karen Toro QUITO, Margarita Alvarado, couldn't, Alvarado, pollster Cedatos, Verisk, Jimena Blanco, Eileen Gavin, Villavicencio's, Villavicencio, Luisa Gonzalez, Teneo, Rafael Correa, Gonzalez, Correa, Guillermo Lasso, Lasso, Paulina Recalde, Perfiles, Recalde, Fernando, Santiago Avilez, Alexandra Valencia, Tito Correa, Julia Symmes Cobb, Brad Haynes, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Voters, Twitter, Albanian mafia, Thomson Locations: Quito, Ecuador, Americas

☆ West Africa bloc pins hopes on Niger coup mediation ahead of summit
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Members of a military council that staged a coup in Niger attend a rally at a stadium in Niamey, Niger, August 6, 2023. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has scheduled the summit to discuss its standoff with the Niger junta, which seized power on July 26 and ignored an Aug. 6 deadline to stand down. In a sign of the United States' interest in the country, U.S. acting deputy secretary of state Victoria Nuland flew to Niamey on Monday. MILITARY ACTION PLANThe 15-nation ECOWAS bloc has taken a harder stance on the Niger coup than it did on other recent government overthrows. "It is fundamentally not in the interests of regional states."

Persons: Mahamadou, Mohamed Bazoum, Antony Blinken, Victoria Nuland, Bazoum, Ben Hunter, Alessandra Prentice, Nellie Peyton, Alexander Winning, Gareth Jones, Nick Macfie Organizations: REUTERS, West African States, French, RFI, ACTION, ECOWAS, Thomson Locations: Niger, Niamey, NIAMEY, West, Central Africa, United States, Europe, China, Russia, Africa

☆ Analysis: Israel's judicial reform turmoil threatens economic growth, investment
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Libgeorge Marc Jones | Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Nir Elias/Illustration//File PhotoLONDON, July 30 (Reuters) - Israel's economy may face ratings downgrades, falling foreign investment and a weaker tech sector if turmoil arising from the government's contentious judicial reforms continues, investors and analysts warn. Reuters GraphicsMaplecroft's Kinnear said comparatively low inflation versus similar countries had buoyed investment, but more civil unrest could derail incoming cash. The reform backlash "threatens to push the economy onto a permanently lower growth path," Nicholas Farr, emerging Europe economist with Capital Economics wrote in a note. Moody's cut Israel's sovereign credit to a "dislike" stance, while S&P said on Thursday the unprecedented protests would lower economic growth this year. S&P warned in May that it could lower its AA- Israel rating "if regional or domestic political risks escalated sharply, depressing Israel's economic, fiscal, and balance-of-payments metrics."

Persons: Nir Elias, Benjamin, Hamish Kinnear, Reuters Graphics Maplecroft's Kinnear, Morgan Stanley, Roger Mark, Mark, Kinnear, Nicholas Farr, Moody's, Fitch, Natalia Gurushina, VanEck, Libby George, Marc Jones, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Middle East, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Copley Fund Research, Reuters Graphics, Gross, TECH, Israeli Innovation Authority, Capital Economics, P, Fitch, AA, Thomson Locations: Israel, North Africa, Europe

☆ Outcome of Spanish elections 'still unpredictable,' analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOutcome of Spanish elections 'still unpredictable,' analyst saysJimena Blanco of Verisk Maplecroft says "we shouldn't discount a potential comeback from the incumbent government."

Persons: Jimena Blanco, Verisk Maplecroft

☆ Analysis: Pakistan and Argentina bonds' surge belies bigger reform hurdles
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Libgeorge Jorgelina Do Rosario | Jorgelina Do Rosario | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Reuters GraphicsBut the boost in the bonds belies the difficulties both nations face implementing major reforms once new leaders arrive after upcoming elections. Pakistan's 11th hour deal for $3 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after months of talks got official approval this week. Saudi Arabia and the UAE followed with $2 billion and $1 billion infusions. This fresh cash means Pakistan is unlikely to default on its debt in the next six to nine months, said de Sousa. Investors and pollsters said the tough times could force Pakistan and Argentina's leaders to reckon with needed fiscal reforms.

Persons: Carlos de Sousa, de Sousa, JPMorgan, Roberto H, Sifon Arevalo, refinance, Jimena Blanco, pollsters, Alejandro Catterberg, Sergio Massa, Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, Patricia Bullrich, Javier Milei, Shamaila Khan, Libby George, Jorgelina, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker, Toby Chopra Organizations: JPMorgan, Vontobel Asset Management, International Monetary Fund, UAE, Elections, Pakistan, P, Reuters, Peronist, Asia Pacific, UBS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Pakistan, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Washington, Beijing, Buenos Aires, Asia, Rosario

☆ Water wars: Afghanistan and Iran's deadly border flare-up spotlights scarcity crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Kajaki Hydroelectric Dam in Kajaki, Afghanistan in the Helmand province on June 4, 2018 in Kajaki, Afghanistan. Iranian and Afghan border guards clashed on May 27, exchanging heavy gunfire that killed two Iranian guards and one Taliban soldier and wounded several others. A dangerous borderThe 580-mile border between Afghanistan and Iran is porous and crawling with crime, predominantly coming from the Afghan side into Iran. "Iran's Afghan border has always been its most vulnerable," said Kamal Alam, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center. In the 1950s, Afghanistan built two major dams that limited the flow of water from the Helmand river into Iran.

Persons: Maplecroft, Wakil Kohsar, Soltvedt, Kamal Alam, Alam, Ryan Bohl, Rane, Ebrahim Raisi, Yamil Lage Organizations: Orbital, Copernicus Sentinel, Getty Images, CNBC, Taliban, Afp, Getty, Asia Center, East Locations: Kajaki, Afghanistan, Helmand, Getty Images Iran, Iran, Tehran, destabilization, East, North Africa, Afghan, Zaranj, Iran's, Khuzestan, Nimruz, Helmand Province, Sistan, Baluchistan, Havana, Cuba

☆ Turkey votes in runoff election after candidates double down on nationalism and fear
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

People walk past an election campaign poster for Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on May 25, 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey. The country is holding its first presidential runoff election after neither candidate earned more than 50% of the vote in the May 14 election. Still, no candidate surpassed the 50% threshold required to win; and with Erdogan at 49.5% and Kilicdaroglu at 44.7%, a runoff election was set for two weeks after the first vote on May 14. "Kilicdaroglu has adopted a harder line on immigration and security ahead of the run-off … is unlikely to be enough," Kinnear said. Already, though, his anti-refugee rhetoric has angered many of his supporters and prompted resignations from some of his campaign allies.

☆ Sudan one month on: Why cease-fires are failing, and what global leaders are missing
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

KHARTOUM, Sudan - May 6, 2023: Sudanese Army sodliers walk near armoured vehicles stationed on a street in southern Khartoum, amid ongoing fighting against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. AFP via Getty ImagesOne month after fighting between Sudan's two military factions broke out in the capital, Khartoum, internationally-brokered peace talks in Saudi Arabia have yielded no solution. Almost a million people have fled their homes, both to locations within Sudan and across the border to neighboring countries. The World Bank and several global powers froze aid to the country after the military takeover, honoring calls from civilians not to legitimize its leadership. Targeted and collaborative efforts by the international community to exert pressure on the countries supporting Sudan's military factions were needed, Abdel-Magied said.

☆ A 'tinderbox' with no easy off-ramps: What the Sudan conflict means for the world
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Smoke rises during clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum, Sudan on April 19, 2023. "We urge the Sudanese army to respect the ceasefire and its conditions to alleviate the suffering of innocent civilians. - | Afp | Getty ImagesNotorious Russian mercenary force Wagner Group has been linked to various commercial and military operations in Sudan. Italian citizens are boarded on an Italian Air Force C130 aircraft during their evacuation from Khartoum, Sudan, in this undated photo obtained by Reuters on April 24, 2023. "The RSF is likely to target oil infrastructure linking South Sudan with Khartoum and the export terminal at Port Sudan," Verisk Maplecroft's Hunter suggested.

☆ Chile’s plan for state control in lithium dismays business
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

A lithium mining machine moves a salt by-product at the mine in the Atacama Desert in Salar de Atacama, Chile on October 25, 2022. Under the plan, all companies wanting to work in Chile's lithium sector will have to take on the yet-to-be created National Lithium Company as a partner and the "state will have control," Boric said Thursday. But Chile's business sector expressed concern. Mewes said business leaders had expected there would be a "great private sector participation" in the lithium sector and now the "state will be the one that will control" the industry. She worries about what message this sends to others in the region that are trying to build up nascent industries, considering Mexico already nationalized its lithium sector.

☆ China's growing influence threatens to undermine global human rights, new research finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Campaigners stand opposite the Chinese embassy in London to protest human rights violations by the Chinese government against its Uyghur community. Mark Kerrison | In Pictures | Getty ImagesChina's growing global influence poses a serious threat to international human rights, according to a new report, which suggests that the United Nations Human Rights Council — the body established to safeguard such international protections — is failing to counter the risks. Beijing's increasingly active role in the international human rights system comes at a precarious period of global democratic deterioration. Sofia Nazalya senior human rights analyst at Verisk MaplecroftThe research, part of the firm's wider annual Human Rights Outlook, is based on quantitative data from sources including the U.N., the U.S. State Department and Human Rights Watch, as well as Verisk Maplecroft's internal qualitative analysis. More than half of members also ranked similarly poorly across the three other metrics the research deemed essential for upholding humanitarian protections: labor rights, human security and human development.

☆ The China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal has big repercussions for the Middle East — and the U.S.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Taking up a specific role that the U.S. could not have fulfilled, this was Beijing's first foray into Middle East mediation, an area that for the past few decades was largely occupied by Washington. "I think China was a good partner to do this. I think they're the right people," he said, noting that China invests heavily in Saudi Arabia and is its top trading partner. Chinese President, Xi Jinping (L) is welcomed by Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (R) at the Palace of Yamamah in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on December 8, 2022. And not just economically, as it already exports an immense amount of goods to the Middle East and is the largest importer of Saudi oil – but politically.

☆ Argentina and Brazil are discussing plans for a common currency — analysts can scarcely believe it
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Argentina President Alberto Fernandez (R) and Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (L) greet each other after signing a series of agreements during a news conference in Buenos Aires. Argentina and Brazil, the two largest economies in South America, are in early talks to create a common currency, as part of a coordinated bid to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. Speaking on his first international visit since taking office, Lula said that the currency would initially be designed for trade and transactions between Brazil and Argentina. Brazil's Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said that the adoption of a common currency was not designed to replace the Brazilian real and the Argentine peso. "Developing and implementing a common South American currency is, therefore, pie in the sky."

REUTERS/Adriano MachadoSAO PAULO/LONDON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Brazilian equities were higher in choppy trade on Monday, a day after thousands of supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed government buildings in the capital, echoing the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection in Washington. On Friday, both had performed better after Lula said the economy may grow while government finances are kept in check. On Monday hundreds of Brazilian police in riot gear and some on horseback amassed at an encampment of Bolsonaro supporters near Brasilia's army headquarters. "I think the situation will quickly normalize," said Cristian Maggio, head of portfolio strategy at TD Securities in London. "Yet, it is an event worth keeping an eye on, as it may not be fully over just yet."

☆ Lula’s response to attack on Brazil's Congress will be crucial, political analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLula’s response to attack on Brazil's Congress will be crucial, political analyst saysJimena Blanco, head of Americas at Verisk Maplecroft, discusses the ramifications of Sunday’s riots on prominent government buildings in Brazil’s capital.

☆ Fed hikes and a stronger dollar are fueling risks of political instability in Africa
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

ACCRA, GHANA - NOVEMBER 05: Ghanaians march during the 'Ku Me Preko' demonstration on November 5, 2022, in Accra, Ghana. "Exposure to international interest rate changes is exacerbated by the large proportion of African public debt that is held in dollars." watch now"High public debt levels and elevated borrowing costs will constrain public spending, which will likely result in a deteriorating ESG and political risk landscape across the continent," Hunter added. Spotlight on Ghana Hunter pointed to Ghana as among the most affected by this negative feedback loop between a deepening public debt burden, a constrained fiscal position and a deteriorating ESG and political landscape. ACCRA, GHANA - NOVEMBER 05: Ghanaians march during the 'Ku Me Preko' demonstration on November 5, 2022, in Accra, Ghana.

☆ South Africa's economy at a pivotal point as outlook improves but political, energy risks remain
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

South Africa's long-awaited economic reforms have begun to improve the country's outlook, but the age-old problems of political uncertainty and a failing power system still pose significant risks. But deep divisions within the ruling African National Congress (ANC) and his own cabinet have made for sluggish progress. However, political frailties and persistent issues at a state-owned utility continue to pose present economic risks. Montana said that in order to secure sustained economic growth, the South African government will need to prioritize energy sustainability. "Energy will require financial assistance from international players, but they will also need to ensure that it doesn't have a negative impact on South African society," he said.

☆ Economic recovery in South Africa exposed to civil unrest, Verisk Maplecroft analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomic recovery in South Africa exposed to civil unrest, Verisk Maplecroft analyst saysAleix Montana from Verisk Maplecroft discusses the latest on South Africa, a country facing inflation, corruption accusations and electricity cuts.

☆ Equatorial Guinea: World's longest-ruling leader looks set to secure new term after 43 years in power
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Story Reuters | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —Preliminary election results released by Equatorial Guinea’s government on Monday showed the ruling party winning over 99% of votes counted so far in presidential, legislative, and municipal elections held on Sunday. The tiny, authoritarian, oil-producing Central African state is run by President Teodoro Obiang, the world’s longest-ruling head of state, who is seeking to extend his 43 years in office. Early, partial results showed Obiang’s ruling Democratic Party of Equatorial Guinea (PDGE) and coalition with 67,012 votes out of 67,196 counted so far. “It is a total fraud,” Esono Ondo told Reuters by phone, saying his party would challenge the result in court. Government and officials of Equatorial Guinea’s election directorate could not be reached for comment.

☆ World's longest-standing president seeks to extend 43-year rule
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

DAKAR, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Equatorial Guinea votes on Sunday in a general election in which President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, the world's longest-standing president, is expected to extend his 43-year rule at the helm of the tiny oil-producing West African nation. Voters will also cast ballots to elect 100 members of parliament for the lower house, 55 of the country's 70 senators, and local mayors. "The presidential election is completely devoid of suspense," said Maja Bovcon, a senior Africa analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft. "The closure of the borders and the harassment and arrests of opposition supporters have been paving the way for the extension of Obiang's 43-year rule," she said. Reporting by Bate Felix; Editing by Cooper Inveen and Frances KerryOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Iran blamed for a drone attack on an Israel-linked oil tanker off the coast of Oman
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Bethany Dawson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A drone armed with a bomb hit an oil tanker off the coast of Oman on Tuesday evening. An Israeli government official has said that they believe Iran is responsible for the strike. The company said there had been "minor damage to the vessel's hull," but there was no "spillage of cargo," referring to the gas oil the tanker was carrying. However, no one has claimed responsibility for the Oman drone attack. Due to tensions between Iran and Israel, Tehran's possible involvement in the attack is suspected.

☆ Biden threatens 'consequences' for Saudi Arabia after OPEC cut, but his options are limited
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Washington has since the 1940s provided billions of dollars in military and security aid to Saudi Arabia. A file photo of cannisters containing Patriot missiles to intercept missiles fired at Saudi Arabia or its neighboring countries. We must pull all US troops out of Saudi Arabia, stop selling them weapons & end its price-fixing oil cartel." "The White House has few good options despite Biden's warning of 'consequences' after the cut," he said, noting U.S. lawmakers' threats of anti-trust legislation and removal of U.S. military assets from Saudi Arabia. While both courses of action would send a clear message, this could backfire for both the U.S. and for crude prices.

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