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☆ S&P sees Indian economy growing by average 6.7% to 2031 amid short-term challenges
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Amit Dave/File PhotoNEW DELHI, Aug 3 (Reuters) - S&P Global on Thursday projected the Indian economy to grow by an average annual rate of 6.7% to March 2031, driven by manufacturing and services exports and consumer demand, despite short-term challenges from rate hikes and a global slowdown. S&P retained its earlier forecast of 6% growth for the current fiscal year ending March 2024, noting even at this rate, India will be the fastest growing economy in the G20. S&P Global expects the size of the economy to reach $6.7 trillion from $3.4 trillion in fiscal 2023, which could see per capita GDP rise to about $4,500. If realised, India would overtake Japan and China to become the third largest economy in the world. "India's ability to become a major global manufacturing hub will be a paramount test for its economic future."

Persons: Shah, Amit Dave, Manoj Kumar, Toby Chopra Organizations: Manubhai, Shah LLP, REUTERS, Global, International Monetary Fund, P Global, Thomson Locations: Ahmedabad, India, Delhi, Japan, China

☆ Canadian pensions funds keen to invest in India, Indian government says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

NEW DELHI, July 16 (Reuters) - Canadian pensions funds would be keen to explore investing in infrastructure funds in India as the country offers a stable investment climate, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Sunday, according to an Indian government statement. Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, meeting Freeland on the sidelines of gathering of Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers in northwest India, discussed progress on bilateral trade negotiations, Sitharaman's office said in a tweet. Reporting by Manoj Kumar; Editing by William MallardOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Chrystia Freeland, Nirmala Sitharaman, Freeland, Manoj Kumar, William Mallard Organizations: Finance, Indian, Thomson Locations: DELHI, India

Reuters GraphicsIndia is among the world's top exporters of services, doubling its share in global services trade to over 4% from 2% in 2005, according to WTO estimates. Sunil Talati, president of government-aided Services Export Promotion Council, said total services exports could overtake goods exports in the next five years to $750 billion. A report by Knight Frank consultancy last week said demand for office space has risen sharply in smaller cities, driven by expanding operations of global accounting and multinationals, pushing up rents by up to 10%. Domestic accounting firms are also moving to smaller towns and raising wages. "With the Big Four and other global firms coming to our cities, we are going even deeper to open offices in smaller cities."

Persons: Ernst & Young, Diksha Mehta, Debasish Mishra, PwC, Padmaja Alaganandan, Narendra Modi, Sunil Talati, Swagatika Parmanik, Knight Frank, Kshitij Patel, Shah, Manoj Kumar, Kripa Jayaram, Sam Holmes Organizations: Business, Diksha, Reuters Graphics India, Deloitte, KPMG, Export Promotion Council, Reuters, PwC, IBM, Manubhai, Shah LLP, Thomson Locations: BHUBANESWAR, India, Mumbai, Delhi, Bengaluru, Jaipur, Vadodara, Kochi, Chandigarh, Patiala, Australian, Europe, New Delhi, Asia, Odisha, Bhubaneswar, Gujarat, Ahmedabad

☆ India puts coastal states on alert amid warning of strengthening cyclonic storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-10 | by ( Sumit Khanna And Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

AHMEDABAD,India/NEW DELHI June 10 (Reuters) - India's western states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa and other coastal regions are on alert after meteorologists warned that a cyclonic storm over the Arabian sea would intensify over the next 24 hours. It warned of heavy rainfall at isolated places in the state of Kerala and coastal Karnataka region in next three days. In Gujarat, the 13 coastal districts of South Gujarat, Saurashtra peninsula and Kutch have been put on alert. "We are fully prepared to deal with any situation," Kamal Dayani, additional chief secretary in the state revenue department, told Reuters. Teams from the National Disaster Response Force and State Disaster Response Force have been deployed in the districts likely to be affected by the storm.

Persons: Biparjoy, Kamal Dayani, Manoj Kumar, Mike Harrison Organizations: Authorities, Cyclone, Indian Meteorological Department, IMD, Reuters, Force, Thomson Locations: AHMEDABAD, India, DELHI, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Kutch, Mumbai, Kerala, Karnataka, South Gujarat, Saurashtra

☆ India's economy likely gained pace in March quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW DELHI, May 31 (Reuters) - India is set to release data on Wednesday that is expected to show the economy grew by 5% in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from 4.4% in the previous quarter due to steady urban demand and government spending. Some private economists reckoned growth in the year to March 31 could turn out around 6.8%. During the March quarter, high frequency indicators showed that a rise in urban incomes had boosted sales of expensive cars, Apple mobile phones, and air travel. The performance looks less impressive considering that the economy was still working through the tail-end of the pandemic during the previous year. Modi must call for a national election by early 2024, and there a several more state polls due before then.

Persons: Narendra Modi, Modi, Manoj Kumar, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, Apple, Bharatiya Janata Party, Monitoring, Thomson Locations: DELHI, India, Karnataka, Mumbai

The government expects growth could remain around 6.5% in the current fiscal year, despite risks emerging from a global slowdown. Asia's third-largest economy expanded faster than the forecast of 5.0% by economists in a Reuters poll in the last quarter of the 2022/23 fiscal year through March, up from a revised 4.5% in the previous quarter. She added growth numbers, however, reflected optimism for the Indian economy despite global headwinds. Reuters GraphicsFederal government spending, constituting about 10% of GDP, rose 2.3% year-on-year in the latest quarter, compared with a revised 0.6% contraction in the previous quarter. Currently, 45% of India's workforce is employed in the farm sector, which contributes just 15% to the economy.

Persons: Anantha Nageswaran, Sakshi Gupta, Narendra Modi, Economists, Sarita Chaganti Singh, Shivangi Acharya, Nishit Navin, Emelia Sithole, David Holmes Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Federal, Monitoring, Thomson Locations: DELHI, India, HDFC, Mumbai, New Delhi, Bengaluru

☆ India's exports likely to touch $900 bln in 2023/24 -exporters
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Shailesh AndradeNEW DELHI, May 4 (Reuters) - India’s exports of goods and services could touch $900 billion in the current financial year, up from $770 billion in the previous year, keeping resilient despite global headwinds, a top official of a grouping of exporters said. India’s exports have increased by more than $200 billion in the last two years, led by a surge in exports of software, mobile exports, and agricultural and petroleum products. Exports of agricultural, petroleum, and electronic goods remained strong in the Western markets due to pricing factors while exports to Asian and Middle east countries have grown substantially, exporters said. "Indian exporters are hopeful that both countries would soon work out a mechanism allowing payments in local currencies that would facilitate the shipments of Indian goods to Russia," Sahai said. But Indian officials have said Russia was reluctant to accept payments in the rupee currency for its oil exports.

☆ Indian police arrest radical Sikh preacher
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW DELHI, April 23 (Reuters) - Indian police have arrested Sikh separatist Amritpal Singh after hunting for him for more than a month, a police statement said on Sunday. Police have accused Singh and his supporters of attempted murder, obstruction of law enforcement and creating disharmony and said he had been on the run since mid-March. “Amritpal Singh (has been) arrested in Moga, Punjab. Further details will be shared by Punjab Police,” the state police said on Twitter, urging the public not to spread fake news. Reporting by Manoj Kumar and Shivangi Acharya; Editing by William MallardOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ India home minister challenges account of 2019 deadly attack on military convoy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW DELHI, April 23 (Reuters) - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has nothing to hide concerning a deadly attack on a military convoy in Kashmir in 2019, India's home minister said. Malik informed Modi that the attack was a failure on the government's part but was asked to stay silent, he told local news outlet the Wire. Home Minister Amit Shah, speaking in a roundtable discussion on the India Today TV programme, said the credibility of the comments needed to be questioned. Kashmir is a Muslim-majority region at the heart of decades of hostility between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan. Reporting by Shivangi Acharya and Manoj Kumar; Editing by Edwina GibbsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Japan proposes industrial hub in Bangladesh with supply chains to India
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW DELHI, April 11 Reuters) - Japan has proposed developing an industrial hub in Bangladesh with supply chains to the landlocked northeastern states of India, and to Nepal and Bhutan beyond by developing a port and transport in the region, officials said on Tuesday. It comes after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to India last month in which he touted the idea of a new industrial hub for the Bay of Bengal and northeast India that could bolster development in the impoverished region of 300 million people. "It can be a win-win plan for India and Bangladesh," Hiroshi Suzuki, Japan's ambassador to India, said on Tuesday, citing the industrial hub proposal at a meeting of Indian, Bangladeshi and Japanese officials in Agartala, the Tripura state capital. He said the deep seaport was likely to become operational by 2027 and would be a key to building an industrial hub connecting the Bangladeshui capital Dhaka to landlocked areas of India. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will visit Japan from April 25-28 at Kishida's invitation, a government statement said.

☆ Weak global demand, rate hikes may curtail India growth, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The slowdown in growth seen in last quarter of 2022 could continue and erode the 6.4% growth for the fiscal year through March 2024 estimated by the central bank, economists warned, ahead of the release of India's GDP data on Tuesday. The sharp fall in year-on-year growth rate is partly due to a fading of pandemic-induced base effect which had contributed towards higher growth figures in fiscal 2021/22, economists said. He expects the economy to grow at a weaker-than-consensus 4.3% year-on-year in the quarter through December 2022. At least two members of India's six-member monetary policy committee have called for a pause in rate hikes, citing rising global and local risks to growth. The central bank, however, remains focused on above-target inflation as high-frequency indicators suggests that stronger rural demand may help offset weaker urban consumption.

Summary Oct-Dec GDP at 4.4% vs 4.6% Reuters forecastOct-Dec manufacturing sector down 1.1%Govt maintains 7% growth for 2022/23Economists see slowing consumer demand, possible rate hikeFeb 27 (Reuters) - India's economic growth slowed further in the December quarter as pent up demand eased and weakness in the manufacturing sector continued. Asia's third largest economy recorded year-on-year growth of 4.4% in October-December, down from 6.3% in July-September, data released by the government on Tuesday showed. The sharp fall in the year-on-year growth rate is also partly due to a fading of pandemic-induced base effects and revision to last year's growth, economists said. "We are likely to hit the 7% GDP growth target for the year," said India's chief economic advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran at a press briefing. Government spending declined 0.8% year-on-year in the December quarter compared to revised 4.1% contraction in the previous quarter.

Adani argued the plants were "unviable" at the trucking rates it wanted to slash by around half. Truckers rejoiced, with a union leader in a street address labelling it as a victory after late-night talks with Adani. After the Hindenburg report, Congress has renewed its claims that Modi for years has unduly favoured Adani. The Adani group wanted freight rates to be lowered to around 6 rupees ($0.0725) per tonne per km, from around 11 rupees. "The Hindenburg report was a gift that saved our businesses."

☆ India's Budget 2023 highlights
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] The Indian parliament building is pictured on the opening day of the parliament session in New Delhi, India, June 17, 2019. REUTERS/Adnan AbidiNEW DELHI, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The Indian government on Wednesday unveiled a 45 trillion rupees ($550.7 billion) spending budget for the next fiscal year starting April to boost economic growth, while aiming to lower fiscal deficit before elections due next year. The aim is to have strong public finances and a robust financial sector for the benefit of all sections of society, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said. * Custom duty exemption extended to EV batteriesFor experts' reaction to the budget, click here. ($1 = 81.7620 Indian rupees)Reporting by Manoj Kumar; Editing by Janane Venkatraman, Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ India to focus on growth, jobs in last full budget before 2024 election
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/4] India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman holds up a folder with the Government of India's logo as she leaves her office to present the federal budget in the parliament, in New Delhi, India, February 1, 2023. REUTERS/Adnan AbidiNEW DELHI, Feb 1(Reuters) - India will focus on economic growth and job creation, the finance minister said on Wednesday presenting the government's last full budget in parliament before a general election due next year that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is projected to win. The aim is to have strong public finances and a robust financial sector for the benefit of all sections of the country, Nirmala Sitharaman said. She added that despite a global slowdown because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, the Indian economy was "on the right track". Sitharaman is expected to lower the government's fiscal deficit while announcing spending and other measures to keep India as one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.

☆ India raises defence budget to $72.6 bln amid tensions with China
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

She said 2.77 trillion rupees would be devoted to military salaries and benefits in 2023-24, 1.38 trillion on pensions for retired soldiers, and further amounts for miscellaneous items. Sitharaman also revised the defence budget for the current financial year ending in March to 5.85 trillion rupees from earlier estimates of 5.25 trillion. Laxman Behera, a defence expert at government-funded Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, said the hike in the defence budget was "reasonable but not sufficient", considering requirements for military modernisation. India plans to spend near 242 billion rupees ($3 billion) for naval fleet construction and 571.4 billion rupees ($7 billion) for air force procurements including more aircraft, the latest budget document showed. Although the defence budget allocations fell short of military expectations, they are likely to grow as the economy recovers from two years of pandemic curbs, according to Behera.

☆ Despite India's economic growth, few jobs and meagre pay for urban youth
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

He has since remained unemployed, unable to pay back a 100,000 rupee ($1,224) loan he took to buy a two-wheeler scooter. The rising unemployment in India belies other indicators suggesting the economy is undergoing a healthy rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead, the surge in people looking for work, many of them rural migrants, raises concerns about consumption and longer term growth prospects. The urban unemployment rate swelled to 10.1% in December, although the total number of jobs in India touched a pre-pandemic level of 410 million, data compiled by Mumbai-based think-tank Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) showed. Urban unemployment spiked during the pandemic years, largely because of lockdowns, but before that it hovered between 6%-7%, according to CMIE data.

☆ India's December goods and services tax collections up 15% y/y
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

NEW DELHI, Jan 1 (Reuters) - India's goods and services tax receipts in December rose 15% year-on-year to 1.495 trillion rupees ($18.07 billion), a government statement said on Sunday, reflecting strong economic activity during the festive season. Goods and services taxes brought in 1.46 trillion rupees in November. ($1 = 82.7170 Indian rupees)Reporting by Manoj Kumar; Editing by Andrew HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Pakistan says it has provided list of nuclear facilities to India under annual practice
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-01 | by ( Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ISLAMABAD, Jan 1 (Reuters) - Pakistan said it had handed a list of its nuclear installations and facilities to the Indian mission in Islamabad on Sunday under a decades-old agreement between the two nuclear-armed rivals. It said lists are exchanged annually on Jan 1 and that India had simultaneously handed over a list to the Pakistani mission in New Delhi. Pakistan first officially tested nuclear weapons in 1998 and has since developed a significant stockpile of nuclear capable missiles, as has India. The list included 705 Indian prisoners detained in Pakistan, including 51 civilians and 654 fishermen, the statement said. It added that the Indian government also shared with the Pakistani mission in New Delhi a list of 434 Pakistani prisoners in India, including 339 civilians and 95 fishermen.

☆ India's jobless rate rises to 16-month high of 8.30% in Dec - CMIE
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-01 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW DELHI, Jan 1 (Reuters) - India's unemployment rate rose to 8.30% in December, the highest in 16 months, from 8.00% in the previous month, data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) showed on Sunday. The urban unemployment rate rose to 10.09% in December from 8.96% in the previous month, while the rural unemployment rate slipped to 7.44% from 7.55%, the data showed. "Most importantly, the employment rate has increased in December to 37.1%, which again is the highest since January 2022," he told Reuters. The unemployment rate had declined to 7.2% in the July-September quarter compared to 7.6% in the previous quarter, according to separate quarterly data compiled by state run National Statistical Office (NSO) and released in November. In December, the unemployment rate rose to 37.4% in the northern state of Haryana, followed by 28.5% in Rajasthan and 20.8% in Delhi, CMIE data showed.

Exports, which constitute about 22% of the industry, have fallen for five months in a row - declining over 15% year-on-year in November to $3.1 billion. Domestic sales are sluggish despite strong growth in the overall economy because of high costs and cheap imported garments, manufacturers say. Reuters GraphicsIn the textile industry, manufacturers say higher domestic cotton prices and other costs have hit profit margins, while overseas orders for next summer are down by about one-third and domestic demand remains weak. "The government needs to scrap the 11% import duty on cotton so local textile mills can have a level playing field," Ganatra said. Reuters GraphicsFEAR OF JOB CUTSMany textile manufacturers, who have frozen hiring of workers, have warned of jobs cuts if the government fails to provide relief soon.

☆ India cenbank hikes key policy rate by 35 basis points
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

However, the pace of rate hikes is reducing from 50 bps to 35 bps, in line with expected global hikes." The market needs to keep a close watch on global rate hikes and sticky core inflation." "We expect RBI to go for another 25 bps hike in its next policy, with the terminal rate at 6.5%. ANUJ PURI, CHAIRMAN, ANAROCK GROUP, MUMBAI"The 35 bps rate hike by the RBI - the fifth consecutive rate hike this year - comes as no surprise. We see a possibility of another 25 bps rate hike before a prolonged pause."

☆ World Bank sees India's growth at 6.9% this year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri/FilesNEW DELHI, Dec 6 (Reuters) - India's economy is expected to grow 6.9% in the current fiscal year, the World Bank said on Tuesday, adding that it is well positioned to tackle global headwinds. The World Bank raised its forecast for India's growth to 6.9% for the current fiscal year from 6.5% earlier. However, the World Bank is confident that the global slowdown has a much lower impact on India, compared to other emerging economies. "We have no concerns about India's debt sustainability at this stage," World Bank economist Dhruv Sharma said, adding that public debt had declined. The report sees average retail inflation at 7.1% this year and warns that the fall in commodity prices could dampen inflationary pressures.

☆ Exclusive: India to offer incentives to boost shipbuilding industry - sources
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW DELHI, Dec 1(Reuters) - India plans to offer cash subsidies, lower taxes and other incentives to bolster its shipbuilding industry, two government sources said, as part of an effort to reduce the pain of high freight rates for the nation's manufacturers. RISK TO EXPANDING TRADEThe Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) and the shipbuilding industry have sought the concessions, arguing that India needs to build its shipping industry due to growing risks of expanding trade with sanctions-hit Russia. India could save at least $25 billion annually in foreign exchange if government incentives helped private companies to develop the local shipping industry, he added. India has around 35 shipbuilding companies, including some state-owned firms. Its maritime freight industry consists of about 1,500 vessels with a gross tonnage capacity of around 13 million tonnes.

NEW DELHI, Nov 30 (Reuters) - India posted annual economic growth of 6.3% in its July-September quarter, less than half the 13.5% growth in the previous three months as distortions caused by COVID-19 lockdowns faded in Asia's third-largest economy. Economists warned, however, that growth momentum may ease in the December quarter due to higher interest rates and slowing exports. "Even as domestic growth drivers on services side continue to remain robust, weakening global demand amid tightening financial conditions remains the key risk for growth outlook for India," said Garima Kapoor, economist at Elara Capital. Slowing global growth has also started to hurt exports, which fell 17% over a year ago in October. "Services on the supply side and investments in the demand side would continue to be the main drivers of growth," said Sujan Hazra, chief economist at Anand Rathi.

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