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Rather, asset managers increasingly position these as now a feature of global investing choices rather than all-consuming shocks per se. Likely for the same reason, geopolitical risk monitors are at their highest in over 18 months too. Ebbing demand from a Chinese economy hobbled by property busts and a foreign investment withdrawal due to U.S. investment curbs also hurts. The VIX (.VIX) index of U.S. stock volatility is currently five points below its historic average 19 - and even July VIX futures hover on that mean. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for ReutersReporting by Mike Dolan Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: there's, Washington's, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, What's, Melissa Brown, Axioma, Andrew McCaffery, Mike Dolan, Mark Potter Organizations: Bank of, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Barclays, Global CIO, Fidelity, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Israel, United States, India, Taiwan, Mexico, Britain, Gaza, Russia, China, Wall

☆ If you want to be the ultimate contrarian next year, bet on these things happening
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Based on the bank's monthly Global Fund Manager Survey, strategist Michael Hartnett created a list of "contrarian" outcomes and hedging opportunities. As of now, high-quality assets are expected to outperform in 2024, with only 6% of fund managers predicting otherwise, said Hartnett. Close to 90% of surveyed fund managers see elevated geopolitical risks in the coming year. For a contrarian outcome, Harnett says to trade as if oil prices will move lower still by shorting crude. Only 6% of fund managers are predicting inflation moves higher next year, according to BofA.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Harnett, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: of America, Global Fund, Survey, Bank of America's, Nasdaq, Treasury, Securities

☆ Welcome to the (almost) red-hot bond market
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Surging mortgage rates over the past few years have sent home loan applications and home sales down sharply. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was also advancing towards 8% — a level not seen since the dot-com bubble popped in 2000. Those raging Treasury yields brought pain to investors and also increased how much American companies had to pay to service their debts. In fact, Wall Street is struggling to figure out what it means for the timing and scale of future rate cuts.

Persons: ”, Michael Hartnett, Gina Bolvin, “ We’re, Phillip Wool, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Federal, Treasury, Dow, Bank of America, Bolvin Wealth Management, Mortgage News, Mortgage, Association, Financial, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Goldman, Fed, UBS, Airlines for America, AAA Locations: New York

☆ Investors are the most overweight bonds in 14 years, expecting rates to decline, survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Professional investors are flocking to bonds in a stampede not seen since the end of the financial crisis, according to the latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey. "The big change in the November FMS was not the macro outlook, but rather the conviction in lower inflation, rates, and yields," Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a summary of the results. The move was "evidenced by the 3rd largest overweight in bonds in the last two decades (only in Mar'09 and Dec'08 were investors more overweight bonds)." Expectations for a bond reversal dominated the November survey, with a record 61% saying they expect lower yields over the next 12 months. The "investor playbook for 2024 is soft landing, lower rates, weaker US$, large cap tech and pharma bull continues, avoid China and leverage," Hartnett said.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, playbook, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, Wall Street, Bank of America, Mar, Federal Reserve, pharma Locations: China

The 40-year bond bull market - a slow-inflating bubble like any other to some people - has crashed. Bank of America chart on survey of global funds' bond positioningBond Multiverse Returns Flip Positive2008... OR 2000? Of course, bond bubbles and bursts - at least for top-rated sovereigns - are not same as their equity counterparts, even if the short-term performance of bond funds seems to ape them. But for bond funds praying for a shorter-term price performance pickup, the situation looks nervier. With such an ephemeral variable at work, picking a durable turn in the battered bond market may prove fiendishly difficult.

Persons: Jason Lee, That's, Fed's, Olivier Davanne, midyear, Davanne, Mike Dolan Organizations: Hong, REUTERS, Treasury, U.S, Bank of America's, Federal Reserve, of America, Bloomberg, Invest, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, Paris

If U.S. and Chinese growth holds up, the investment landscape will need to be redrawn too. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBut what if peak bond bearishness is already upon us? As Societe Generale's Albert Edwards points out, once the quarterly deflator is factored in, nominal GDP growth in the third quarter was actually only 3.5%. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsEqually, U.S. stocks look expensive if high yields start to choke the economy. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing Rights(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

Persons: Florence Lo, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Chris Iggo, Jamie McGeever, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Societe Generale's, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, of America's, HSBC, Reuters, AXA Investment, Bank of America's, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, United States, China, Atlanta, Beijing, Europe, U.S, Bank

☆ In a world of competing stock market narratives, only one is holding true
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

No trend in market direction Try to find evidence that the market supports any of these narratives. The ETF to watch is Vanguard Megacap Growth . By contrast, the other 493 stocks in the S & P 500 are seeing earnings projections lower (Q3) or flat (Q4). Apple Q3: up 7% Q4: up 12% Microsoft Q3: up 13% Q4: up 14% Amazon Q3: up 107% Q4: up 2,091% (!) Nvidia Q3: up 471% Q4: up 316% Meta Q3: up 122% Q4: up 176% Tesla Q3: down 30% Q4: down 28% Source: Factset

Persons: Tomas Lee, There's, Russell, Tesla Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla

☆ A widely followed Wall Street survey shows investors turning bearish again, raising cash levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Professional investors are turning more bearish again amid the current macro backdrop, according to a closely watched Wall Street survey from Bank of America. The bank's Global Fund Manager survey showed investors have upped their cash levels and are maintaining a pessimistic outlook on growth and the economy. Specifically, strategist Michael Hartnett said the cash allocation among those surveyed increased to 5.3% from 4.9%, while staying neutral on stocks. "1 out of 4 [fund manager survey] investors expect that there will be no recession in the next 18 months," Hartnett said. A record number of respondents also indicated that monetary policy remains too tight, while fiscal policy is too easy.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, —, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Global, Reserve

☆ Column-Bonds eye Q4 salvation in another year to forget: McGeever
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jamie Mcgeever | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Treasury bond indexes are down as much as 2.5% this year, not a huge move and most of it has come since Federal Reserve policymakers published their upwardly revised median policy projections on Sept. 20. For an investor with a typical portfolio weighted 60% stocks and 40% bonds, these losses are more than offset by double-digit equity returns. Their base case is for a 14% return on 10-year Treasuries, rising to 20% in the event of recession. Even in their upside scenario of a more resilient economy, 10-year Treasuries should return around 10% over the coming year, they estimate. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, meanwhile, showed that asset managers had built up a then record net long position in 10-year Treasuries futures of 1.26 million contracts by mid-January.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, ”, Keith Lerner, Jonathan Duensing Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, U.S, Treasuries, U.S ., Bank of America, Treasury, Bloomberg U.S, ICE, Advisory, Fed, UBS, Bank of, Futures, Amundi, Reuters Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Washington , U.S, U.S . Republic, Treasuries

☆ Bonds eye Q4 salvation in another year to forget: McGeever
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jamie Mcgeever | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

☆ What could break under higher-for-longer interest rates?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Yet, the strain from interest rate hikes has just started to come through and with central banks signalling that rates will likely stay higher for longer, the notion of something "breaking" remains strong. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics1/ PROPERTY PAINNowhere is the impact of higher rates being felt more acutely than in real estate, still reeling from COVID-19. "We have many zombie companies in the United States and Europe from the low interest rates era, and I cannot imagine how they can survive now with high interest rates." Still, big question marks remain over their future, not least from a global property rout. Miller noted that European banks are also vulnerable given their bigger size relative to the economy that leaves them more exposed to risks from various pockets.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Heimstaden, Markus Allenspach, Julius Baer, Guy Miller, Miller Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, Reuters Graphics Reuters, SBB, China Evergrande, HK, Federal, European Central Bank, Zurich Insurance, The Bank of Japan, Capital, Thomson Locations: Washington, Sweden, Europe, Stockholm, Berlin, CHINA, China, United States, Big U.S

But the essence of the argument is that lower bond volatility ups the amount of cash liquidity flowing around world markets, and vice versa. But it is the incremental movement in this giant pool that arguably matters most for stock markets and asset prices. Even though global liquidity is shrinking as you might expect in the face of rising Western interest rates, central bank balance sheet reduction and a higher dollar, other offsets are significant. But falling bond volatility has likely played a big part in softening the blow too. "The two together have helped overall liquidity conditions - but we are mindful that bond markets are likely to remain volatile and need to be monitored carefully."

Persons: CrossBorder, Mike Dolan, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal Reserve, coy, Treasury, Fed, Bank, People's Bank of, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, punchbowl, People's Bank of China, United States

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: Chinese growth expectations fall to 'lockdown lows,' fund manager survey says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

BofA's survey of fund managers found that a net 0% expect a stronger Chinese economy in the next 12 months. Investors noted that China's real estate sector is the most likely source of any future credit event risk. Describing expectations as back to "lockdown lows," BofA noted that's a whopping plummet from February, when a net 78% of respondents anticipated a stronger economy. But China's economy has slowed sharply in subsequent months, with rapid cooldowns seen in retail sales, industrial output, exports, and investment. In fact, fund managers responding to BofA's survey placed China's real estate as the most likely source of a future systemic credit event.

Persons: BofA, China's Organizations: Investors, Service, Bank of America Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Beijing

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's trip to China last month had promised some economic and trade detente between the two superpowers now at loggerheads. And none of the 222 funds polled expected China economic growth to be any higher next year than this - mirroring a recent Reuters survey of domestic and overseas banks and investors. As these sorts of surveys go, there's an awful lot in there that could spell "peak gloom". Indeed, shorting China equities was deemed the second "most crowded trade" behind long exposure to supercharged Big Tech stocks. Even if the economy turns, political catalysts for a return to China may be slow in coming.

Persons: Aly, Gina Raimondo's, it's, Jamie Dimon, Jay Clayton, Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton, Willem Sels, Mike Dolan, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, . Commerce, Bank of, Big Tech, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, JPMorgan, Investments, The Ontario Teachers, Caisse, Franklin, HSBC Private Banking, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, loggerheads, Wall, Asia, Silicon Valley, Hong Kong, Temasek, Bridgewater, Blackrock, India, Indonesia, Washington, United States

Giant cranes are seen at the Hanjin Shipping container terminal at Incheon New Port in Incheon, South Korea, September 7, 2016. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji Acquire Licensing RightsSept 13 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The real fireworks will come after Asian markets close, with the release of U.S. CPI for August. Annual core inflation is expected to ease to 4.3% from 4.7%, but headline inflation is predicted to rise to 3.6% from 3.2%. Year-on-year oil prices are now turning positive for the first time this year, something investors and policymakers could do without.

Persons: Kim Hong, Jamie McGeever, Brent, Kazuo Ueda, Josie Kao Organizations: Hanjin Shipping, Incheon New, REUTERS, U.S, CPI, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Bank of America's, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Incheon, Incheon New Port, South Korea, Japan, China, Korea

☆ Top fund managers flee emerging markets in fear of a potential global crisis, new survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Top investors are dumping emerging market equities and buying U.S. stocks at a record pace due to concerns about a potential global crisis, according to Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett. The BofA Global Fund Manager Survey showed that September saw a record jump in investor allocation to the U.S., and out of emerging market securities. The shift in asset allocation stemmed from a significant decline in China growth expectations. Bank of America's survey showed none of the respondents now expect a stronger economy in China, versus 78% when polled in February. Bank of America's survey showed investors see China real estate as the No.1 source of the next global credit event.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Global, Survey, Bank of, People's Bank of Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, People's Bank of China

☆ Bounce in European property stocks: false start or turning point?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Danilo Masoni | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

MILAN, Aug 24 (Reuters) - It's hard to be bullish about real estate in an environment of sharply higher interest rates. Two years of steep falls have made European property a short-seller favourite as sector valuations and investor positioning plunged to levels last seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. A gauge of European real estate shares (.SX86P) has halved in value to about $131 billion since 2021, but the mood shifted in July as earnings expectations improved. "Things aren't great for real estate companies and that's why they are trading at a huge discount. Meanwhile, BlackRock's iShares European Property ETF (IPRP.L) has seen a 10% surge in inflows from late February, according to data on its website.

Persons: Gerry Fowler, Zsolt Kohalmi, BlackRock's, Natixis, Banks, Charles de Boissezon, Kohalmi, UBS's Fowler, Danilo Masoni, Sinead Cruise, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: MILAN, European Equity, UBS, European Central Bank, Pictet, Advisors, P Global Market Intelligence, Property, Bank of, Societe Generale, Equity, Thomson Locations: Europe, London, U.S

And with China's post-COVID recovery running into the ground and suffering a deepening real estate bust, western investment curbs throw more sand in the wheels. A question now is whether a retreat of western money from emerging markets at least partly explains both their recent underperformance and that of western government bonds, in which emerging central banks and sovereign funds are heavily invested. The picture has not been much better in aggregate emerging bond indices, even if they have done marginally better than developed world counterparts, and worries over emerging high-yield and property linked bonds are rising. Have global investors high-tailed it from emerging markets already? If western money grows more wary and is increasingly warned off China and other selective emerging investments, will there be a mutual pullback of official emerging money from western bond markets?

Persons: Aly, Joe Biden, Morgan, Biden, crumb, Mike Dolan, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, U.S ., Bank of, Institute for International Finance, Treasury, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, Ukraine, Washington, Russia, United States, Beijing, Moscow, Taiwan, Brazil, India, South Africa, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, South Korea

☆ What do ‘Big Short’ Michael Burry and Warren Buffett know that we don’t?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Michael Burry, the “Big Short” investor who became famous for correctly predicting the epic collapse of the housing market in 2008, also made a gigantic bet last quarter on a Wall Street crash. Bank of America released its August global fund manager survey on Tuesday and found that money managers are feeling the least pessimistic about markets since February 2022. So what do Buffett and Burry know that the rest of us don’t? Russia and Ukraine: Global inflation is finally coming down, but heightened geopolitical tensions threaten to raise food and oil prices across the globe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to stoke fears of increased commodity prices, global economic instability and uncertainty around security.

Persons: Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, That’s, Michael Burry, Buffett, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, hasn’t, Fitch, ”, Gregory Daco, Catherine Thorbecke, Catherine Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Securities, Exchange, Scion Asset Management, Bank of America, Traders, National Bureau of Statistics, JPMorgan, CNBC, Bank, First Republic Bank, Huntington Bank, PacWest, Western Alliance, Commerce Department Locations: New York, China, Ukraine, Russia, stoke, Huntington, Lahaina , Hawaii, Lahaina, Las Vegas, Maui

☆ Bank of America survey signals investors are overconfident and stocks' ‘strong tailwind’ is over
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"Bear positioning strong tailwind for risk assets in H1…not the case in H2," Hartnett wrote in a summary of the closely watched survey. Cash allocations have dropped to 4.8% of portfolios, below the 5% dividing line that has traditionally been a buy signal. Even if there is a recession, managers expect it to be mild, with 65% expecting a "soft landing." Allocation to stocks is the least underweight as a share of portfolios since April 2022 and up 13 percentage points from July. The survey was taken Aug. 4-10 and entailed 247 panelists with $635 billion in assets under management.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, REITs, Lehman Organizations: Bank of America, Survey, FMS

☆ Morning Bid: Testing the 'Goldilocks' view of the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland. The 'Goldilocks' view that equity investors are taking of the global economy continued into August, as a benchmark of Asian stocks hovered around Monday's 16-month highs. Signs of a peak for European consumer inflation to start the week echoed the narrative in the U.S., where optimism for a soft landing continues to grow. And the Bank of England decision on Thursday could mar the peak rates story for the world's major central banks. The PMI parade continues through the day, with numbers from the euro zone and many of its members, including Germany, as well as from the UK and the U.S.

Persons: Kevin Buckland, Muralikumar Organizations: United, Bank of, PMI, BP, Diageo, Caterpillar, PMIs, U.S ., Italy U.S, ISM, Uniper, Daimler, Deutsche Post U.S, Uber, Pfizer, Merck, Starbucks, AMD, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Bank of England, Beijing, Germany, Europe, Sweden, Spain, Italy, France, Tokyo

"The oil market is starting to slowly price in a looming supply crunch," Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said. "Global supplies are starting to tighten and that could accelerate dramatically in the coming weeks. A shutdown of the grain corridor could hit supplies of ethanol and biofuels that are blended with oil products at a time that global grain markets are already tightening, which would lead to refiners using more crude oil, Flynn said. Meanwhile, U.S. energy firms this week reduced the number of oil rigs by seven, their biggest cut since early June, energy services firm Baker Hughes said. At 530, the U.S. oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, is at its lowest since March 2022.

Persons: WTI, Phil Flynn, Flynn, Baker Hughes, Suhail, Mazrouei, Rob Haworth, Shariq Khan, Natalie Grover, Arathy, Andrew Hayley, Marguerita Choy, David Holmes Organizations: Brent, U.S . West Texas, Futures, Energy Information Administration, EIA, UAE Energy, Reuters, P, U.S, Bank Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine, China BENGALURU, U.S, Bengaluru, London, Houston, Beijing

Brent crude futures rose $1.43, or 1.8%, to settle at $81.07 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.42, or 1.9%, to settle at $77.07 a barrel, the highest since April 25. "The oil market is starting to slowly price in a looming supply crunch as it is on track for its fourth week of price gains," Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said. In the U.S., crude inventories (USOILC=ECI) have fallen, amid a jump in crude exports and higher refinery utilisation, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. Data from the world's second-biggest oil consumer suggests the government's 5% annual growth target will be missed.

Persons: Brent, Phil Flynn, Flynn, Suhail, Mazrouei, Jay Hatfield, Rob Haworth, Shariq Khan, Natalie Grover, Arathy, Andrew Hayley, Marguerita Choy, David Holmes Organizations: Friday, Brent, . West Texas, Futures, Energy Information Administration, EIA, UAE Energy, Reuters, Infrastructure Capital Management, P, U.S, Bank Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine, China BENGALURU, U.S, China, Bengaluru, London, Houston, Beijing

☆ The 10 top dividend stocks for payouts that last well into the future, according to Morningstar
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A key consideration before buying dividend-paying stocks is whether they can sustain long-term yields. Adding dividend-paying stocks to a portfolio is one way to navigate the bearish sentiment. Dividend-paying stocks experience less volatility because investors often hold on to them for their yields. A key consideration before buying dividend-paying stocks is whether they can sustain long-term yields. Below is Morningstar's list of the 10 best dividend-paying stocks with strong financials.

Persons: Morningstar's David Harrell, Susan Dziubinski, isn't, David Harrell, Dan Lefkovitz, Harrell Organizations: Bank of America, Morningstar, Verizon, Comcast Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Investment banking sees signs of life
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Banking on Bank of AmericaInvestors pushed Bank of America shares up 4.42% on the bank's earnings and revenue beat for the second quarter. Profit rose 19% to $7.41 billion while revenue increased 11% to $25.33 billion, helped by a 14% jump in net interest income. But fund managers are still cautious, according to the latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey.

Persons: Ocado, Morgan Morgan Stanley's, James Gorman's, we've Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, Microsoft, Revenue, Bank of America Investors, Bank of America, Bank of America Global Fund, Survey

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