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Slower, still strong US job growth expected in June
  + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The economy needs to create 70,000-100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. A Conference Board survey last month showed consumers' perceptions of the labor market more upbeat in June relative to May. But first-time applications for unemployment benefits jumped to a 20-month high during the week that the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm payrolls count. "They are going to opt to cut hours worked, that is something we need to pay very close attention to, rather than the net gain in nonfarm payrolls." The slowdown in wage growth is being driven by the loss of high-paying technology and finance jobs among others.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Sung Won Sohn, Payrolls, Ryan Sweet, Milton Ezrati, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Labor, Federal Reserve, U.S, Loyola Marymount University, Institute for Supply, Board, Oxford Economics, West Chester Pennsylvania, BNP, Thomson Locations: y WASHINGTON, Los Angeles, payrolls, West Chester, nonfarm, New York
In 2017, with Mr. Connors’ help, Mr. Maichle started his own company, Precision Compliance Consulting. ‘Boss Man’Mr. Connors, Mr. Lewis and Mr. Maichle were all active in college conservative politics in Wisconsin about 15 years ago, when Mr. Connors was the leader of campus Republicans at Marquette University. Of that, about $102,000 went to Campaign Now, the firm started by Mr. Connors, and another $112,000 to companies where Mr. Connors, Mr. Maichle or Mr. Lewis was either the owner or a partner, tax records show. Most of the money — more than $4.4 million — went to fund-raising companies via tens of thousands of small payments. Most of the money — more than $4.4 million — went to fund-raising companies via tens of thousands of small payments.
TV and film writers at the picket line in New York on the first day of the WGA strike, May 2, 2023. Every three years, the Writers Guild of America, the TV and film writers' union, negotiates a contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers. "You go from job to job," and each contract can look different from writer to writer depending on their experience, for instance. TV writer Sheri Holman on strike in New York. TV and film writer Chisa Hutchinson.
A California man got a year in prison over threats to Merriam-Webster and other businesses. Jeremy Hanson made threats related to gender, including some related to the definition of "female". Hanson used an anonymous account to post threatening responses to new definitions added to words like "female" on Merriam-Webster's website. "It is absolutely sickening that Merriam-Webster now tells blatant lies and promotes anti-science propaganda," Hanson wrote. "You [sic] headquarters should be shot up and bombed," Hanson wrote in a message on the site's Contact Us page.
The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is also expected to show wage gains maintaining their upward trend, underscoring a persistently tight jobs market. Estimates for February payrolls growth ranged from as low as 78,000 to as high as 325,000. "This would indicate the anticipated normalization in the labor market is taking longer than expected," said Jan Groen, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities in New York. There's locational and skills mismatches, which basically means the labor market is not functioning efficiently," said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College. The Fed has to be careful about how they interpret what's going on in the labor market."
Yet US manufacturing has likely already contracted into a recession, housing sales have plummeted, tech layoffs keep coming and corporate earnings growth is souring. “We continue to think the economy will suffer from rolling recessions, evidenced by the fact that corporate earnings growth is now entering its downturn,” wrote Sonders in a note on Wednesday. For five straight weeks, the bank’s clients have been big buyers of individual stocks and sellers of ETFs, she wrote. Disney revenue in the quarter rose 8% to $23.5 billion, edging past estimates of $23.4 billion from analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. The company reported revenue of $8.6 billion for the quarter, beating Wall Street’s estimates and marking a 49% increase from the prior year.
It's time to chill with al the recession talk
  + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
New York CNN —In 2021, a bunch of economists and policy makers underestimated the inflation that was taking root around the world. In 2022, as inflation hit 40-year-highs and the Fed ramped up interest rates, many of those commentators went full-on gloomy — predicting a recession was all but inevitable. And that makes it hard, if not impossible, to imagine a recession anytime soon. “Any concern the economy is in recession or close to a recession should be completely dashed by these numbers,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told CNN on Friday. “The economy is further away from recession than ever,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds.
But the tech, housing, and manufacturing industries might be already. "We have a manufacturing recession, a housing recession, a tech recession," she said in a Bloomberg post last week. In this scenario, parts of the economy would "take turns suffering rather than simultaneously" — and the broader economy would never reach recession status. There were over 55,000 reported tech layoffs during the first 20 days of January, more than the entire first half of 2022. It's led some to declare that a "tech recession" is already upon us.
Earlier this week, the consensus estimate among economists was that the US economy likely added about 185,000 jobs in January. But the economy had other ideas, adding more than half a million jobs in January. Here are three key things to take away from Friday’s jobs report. The report shocked Wall Street economistsThe headlines that came at 8:30 am ET Friday left economists stunned: America added 517,000 jobs last month. Much of that speculation centered on the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening, which aimed to wring inflation from the economy.
Retail sales have weakened sharply over the last two months and manufacturing looks to have joined the housing market in recession. While the labor market remains strong, business sentiment continues to sour, which could eventually hurt hiring. According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 2.6% annualized rate last quarter after accelerating at a 3.2% pace in the third quarter. Trade, which accounted for the bulk of GDP growth in the third quarter, was seen either making a small contribution or subtracting from GDP growth. While the labor market thus far has shown remarkable resilience, economists argue that deteriorating business conditions will force companies to slow hiring and lay off workers.
Termed "rolling recessions," the idea is that rather than contract broadly and all at once, the economy could see different sectors decline in succession, one after the other. I think we will see rolling recession in the future." Sonders is a proponent of the "rolling recession" theory and noted that stocks can perform well even in downturns. A traditional recession looms To be sure, there are detractors to the "rolling recession" theory. "Have we ever had a period where both housing and manufacturing were in recession at the same time and we didn't have a recession?"
Cooling inflation could allow the Federal Reserve to further scale back the pace of its interest rate increases next month. "To be sure, the efforts by the Fed have begun to bear fruit, even though it will be a while before the promised land of a 2% inflation rate is here." Food prices climbed 0.3%, the smallest gain in nearly two years, after rising 0.5% in the prior month. Fruit and vegetable prices fell as did those for dairy products, but meat, poultry and fish cost more. The labor market remains tight, with the unemployment rate back at a five-decade low of 3.5% in December, and 1.7 jobs for every unemployed person in November.
The report could allow the Federal Reserve to further scale back the pace of its interest rate increases next month. "To be sure, the efforts by the Federal Reserve have begun to bear fruit, even though it will be a while before the promised land of a 2% inflation rate is here." Food prices climbed 0.3%, the smallest gain since March 2021, after rising 0.5% in the prior month. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI climbed 0.3% last month after rising 0.2% in November. The labor market, which has remained tight, will be key in this regard.
Yeoh's moment was refreshing for Jeon, a self-proclaimed assertive Asian American woman. And for Asian women, who contend with historical pressures from within the community and beyond to make themselves small, Yeoh’s quip had a deeper meaning. She simultaneously represented other Asian women who are more compelled to speak their minds. Jeon, for example, said that she has often been reminded by loved ones to tone down her personality in spaces within the Asian American community. While many women are taught to downplay their strengths, particularly in front of men, Yeoh flexed her might in those five words.
Strong U.S. jobs, wages growth expected in December
  + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
However, job growth would far exceed the pace needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population, comfortably in the 150,000-300,000 range that economists associate with tight labor markets. Household employment decreased in October and November, leading some economists to speculate that overall job growth was overstated. Yet the household survey tends to be volatile and most economists expect household employment would be revised toward nonfarm payrolls. "We would not be surprised to see an even larger rebound in household employment in December or over the coming months." But the trend in employment growth could slow significantly by mid-year.
Zooey Zephyr, the first out transgender woman elected to the Montana Legislature, was inspired to run after her state passed three pieces of legislation targeting the LGBTQ community. 'Real, tangible effects on trans people'State legislatures have increasingly become battlegrounds over LGBTQ rights. Republicans began introducing legislation targeting queer rights at an increased clip in the wake of the 2015 Supreme Court ruling in Obergefell vs. Hodges, which legalized same-sex marriage nationally. In 2017, Republicans introduced 129 bills targeting LGBTQ rights, many of which focused on issues of religious freedom. However, she believes bills targeting LGBTQ rights are ultimately a losing strategy.
A record number of LGBTQ candidates won their midterm races this year, creating what some advocates are calling yet another “rainbow wave.”Many races are still too close or too early to call, but as of Thursday afternoon, at least 400 out LGBTQ candidates had won their elections, according to the LGBTQ Victory Fund, which supports queer people running for office. “With so much at stake this election, from the future of marriage equality to abortion, LGBTQ candidates’ grit and exceptional grassroots support is paying off.”National firstsQueer candidates celebrated a number of notable victories and firsts across the country. Alaska is one of four states with zero out LGBTQ state lawmakers, according to the LGBTQ Victory Institute. Magni said the results prove that LGBTQ candidates can successfully compete in both blue and red states. “This is a powerful message, saying, ‘Hey, LGBTQ candidates can win elections and can win elections in many states and many districts across the country.’” he said.
Proposition 26, which sought to bring point spreads to Native American casinos, was being rejected by 70.1% to 29.9%, tallies showed Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Proposition 27, the measure that sought to legalize online sports betting, was going down to even greater defeat by 83.3% to 16.7%. Proposition 26 garnered $120.7 million in donor support and $43.8 million in opposition efforts, according to the California secretary of state's contribution records. Meanwhile, Proposition 27 drew $169.5 million in support and $237.8 million in opposition. Proposition 27's backers didn't strongly oppose Proposition 26, whose backers aggressively fought the former measure in hopes of bringing Native American casinos a near-monopoly in sports betting.
In the last leg of what has been a heated midterm election cycle, some conservative groups have ramped up misleading or inflammatory campaign ads targeting transgender rights, which have become an increasingly partisan and divisive issue. Within the last several weeks, the American Principles Project aired campaign ads in six battleground states, the group wrote on Twitter. Justin Unga, the director of strategic initiatives for the Human Rights Campaign, said ads targeting transgender rights can have real-world ramifications. A record 346 anti-LGBTQ bills have been filed in state legislatures around the country this year, including 145 that restrict transgender rights, according to the Human Rights Campaign. Many of the recent campaign ads targeting transgender rights were directed at Black and Latino voters, according to the Human Rights Campaign.
While overall inflation slowed substantially from the second quarter, underlying price pressures continued to bubble. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.6% annualized rate last quarter after contracting at a 0.6% pace in the second quarter. That was the slowest rise in this measure of domestic demand since the second quarter of 2020 and followed a 0.5% rate of increase in the second quarter. A broader measure of inflation in the economy rose at a 4.6% rate, decelerating from a 8.5% pace of increase in the second quarter. Business inventories increased at a rate of $61.9 billion after rising at a pace of $110.2 billion in the second quarter.
"The devil is in the details, and if you strip out trade, GDP will look a lot weaker than the headline number suggests," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely rebounded at a 2.4% annualized rate last quarter after contracting at a 0.6% pace in the second quarter. Wild swings in trade and inventories were behind the contraction in GDP in the first half of the year. A modest rebound in business spending on equipment is predicted after it contracted in the second quarter. Some economists believe inventories, which were the biggest drag on GDP in the second quarter, had a neutral impact on output last quarter.
For the first time in the nation's history, Americans from all 50 states and the District of Columbia will have a chance to elect an LGBTQ person to public office. More than 340 anti-LGBTQ bills have been introduced in state legislatures this year, according to the Human Rights Campaign, the nation’s largest LGBTQ advocacy group. The word “grooming” has long been associated with mischaracterizing LGBTQ people, particularly gay men and transgender women, as child sex abusers. "So, if you're voting against some LGBTQ rights, you're not voting against LGBTQ rights in abstract anymore, but you're voting to deny rights to someone who sits next to you every day at work." Within the record-breaking election year for LGBTQ candidates, dozens of them will also have the chance to make history on their own.
A group of Latino academics and civic leaders are insisting on the resignations of Latino members of the Los Angeles City Council after a recording of racist remarks was leaked, while outlining the need to ensure that the city's Hispanics are represented politically in a way that still strengthens race relations. "It is time to chart a principled path for the role an emerging Latino majority plays in our community." “The City of Los Angeles is overdue for institutional reform, especially reform that depoliticizes the redistricting process,” they said. The City Council is up for election on Nov. 8. In the letter, the group requested the opportunity to meet with City Council leaders.
Workers quit in high numbers over the past few years — sometimes after being at the job under a year. Some employers are demanding that quitting workers reimburse them for their training costs. Most prevalent in the healthcare, trucking, and retail industries, these agreements can cost quitting workers thousands of dollars. England of charging quitters $6,000 for reimbursed training costs if they leave before a certain period of time. Regardless, many companies say they are well within their rights to demand compensation for training costs when employees part ways.
Actor Constance Wu opened up about her suicide attempt in a tearful conversation on Jada Pinkett Smith’s show “Red Table Talk,” divulging what led to the incident. Wu said she felt like she couldn’t speak up about the harassment. Nadia Kim, a professor of sociology and of Asian and Asian American studies at Loyola Marymount University, said on the panel that the lack of Asian American representation makes it harder. “Because there are so few Asian American stars, there is incredible pressure put on these actors, like Constance Wu, to be perfect,” she said. If you or someone you know is in crisis, call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 800-273-8255, text HOME to 741741 or visit SpeakingOfSuicide.com/resources for additional resources.
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