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☆ Wall St Week Ahead Debt ceiling deal may shift investor focus to further Fed action
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Megacap technology and growth stocks, which benefit from lower interest rates, have led the market's advance. A Congressional package raising the debt ceiling, meanwhile, is expected to cap spending on government programs. The debt ceiling impasse had weighed on stocks in recent days, but for the most part investors had been expecting Washington to reach a deal. At the same time, the equity market has only just begun to start pricing in more Fed hikes, she added. "The ongoing effects of monetary policy now are setting us up for this wall of debt that people aren't talking about with enough vigor," he said.

☆ A U.S. recession would be 'good news' for markets, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. consumer price inflation eased to 4.9% year on year in April, its lowest annual pace since April 2021. Markets took the new data from the Labor Department earlier this month as a sign that the Federal Reserve's efforts to curb inflation are finally bearing fruit. They eventually opted for another 25 basis point increase at the time, taking the target fed funds rate to between 5% and 5.25%. By November 2024, the market is pricing a 24.5% probability — the top of the bell curve distribution — that the target rate is cut to the 2.75%-3% range. "To me, it all really is going to come down to 'is the economy gonna touch near a recession?'

With the end of another earnings season in sight, Wall Street's attention has turned to Washington and the debt ceiling deadline. Republican negotiators on Friday walked out of talks on raising the debt limit , abruptly ending a positive week of discussions that appeared to be leading toward a deal. Democrats and the White House have been pushing for a "clean" hike to the debt limit that would push the next deadline past the 2024 presidential election, while Republicans are pressing for spending cuts. Many investors believe this ongoing game of chicken over the debt limit is largely for show, since the U.S. has never defaulted on its debt obligations. U.S. President Joe Biden hosts debt limit talks with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and other congressional leaders in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 9, 2023.

☆ Asian stocks inch up on US debt ceiling hopes, Nikkei hits 33-year high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) rose 0.66%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) continued its ascent, rising to its highest since August 1990, during the country's so-called bubble era. Futures indicated European stocks were set to open higher, with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.44%, German DAX futures up 0.41% and FTSE futures up 0.23%. China's blue-chip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) rose 0.20%, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) was up 0.13%, having reversed from earlier losses. Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.029% and was wedged near a two-month high.

☆ Asian shares mixed as China growth worries crimp U.S. debt ceiling optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.20% but was set to eke out a gain of 0.19% for the week. Data in the week underscored that China's economy lost momentum at the beginning of the second quarter, stoking worries over the wobbly post-COVID-19 recovery. Investor attention has been firmly on the negotiations over U.S. debt ceiling and increasing hopes that a deal could be reached sent U.S. shares higher overnight . Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. U.S. crude fell 0.14% to $71.76 per barrel and Brent was at $75.78, down 0.11% on the day.

☆ Federal Reserve officials are growing skeptical over suspending rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some officials are concerned inflation isn’t cooling fast enough, which could prompt an 11th consecutive rate hike when policymakers meet in June. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell and former Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke (R) participate in a discussion at the Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, DC, May 19, 2023. Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty ImagesEarlier this month, Fed officials voted unanimously to raise the benchmark lending rate by a quarter point to a range of 5-5.25%, while signaling a possible pause ahead. Of course, Fed officials’ thinking on monetary policy could drastically change if the United States defaults on its debt, which could happen as soon as June 1. Fed officials always mention that their views on interest rates largely depend on what economic indicators show, resisting taking an absolute stance on how they will vote.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Time to exhale and breathe
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A trader walks out of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Wall Street in New York City on May 12, 2023. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, thinks economic data don't support a pause in rate hikes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Morning Bid: Hopeful ahead of the weekend
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Yoruk Bahceli. Markets are heading into the weekend basking in optimism that a debt ceiling deal to avert a catastrophic U.S. Treasury default will be struck soon. His team have reported progress in talks and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said a deal is "doable" by Sunday. The S&P 500 is up 1.8% this week, set for its best week since end-March when markets were in panic mode around a banking crisis dragging down the economy. Fed speakers also sounded the alarm; Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday U.S. inflation doesn't look like it's cooling fast enough to merit a rate hike pause.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Exhale and breathe
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk by the bronze sculpture 'Fearless Girl' outside of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on April 21, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, thinks economic data don't support a pause in rate hikes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 97 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $71.86. A stronger dollar can weigh on oil demand by making the fuel more expensive for holders of other currencies. High interest rates boost borrowing costs, which can slow the economy and reduce oil demand. The strength of April U.S. economic data in addition to optimism about the debt ceiling negotiations have strengthened market expectations of a further hike, ANZ Research said in a note on Thursday. Another factor that could reduce oil demand was a fire in Mexico at the Salina Cruz refinery owned by Mexican state oil company Pemex.

☆ Fed's hawks make a pitch against a rate-hike pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

On Thursday, rate-futures markets reflected a one-in-three chance of a June rate hike, compared with a one-in-10-chance seen a week ago. The Fed has lifted borrowing costs at each meeting since March 2022, bringing them from near zero to a 5.00-5.25% range as of early this month. Consumer price inflation, for instance, edged down to a 4.9% annual pace in April but is still far above the Fed's 2% goal. However, his embrace of the idea that there is still a lot of policy tightening in the pipeline suggests he could be comfortable with a pause. Dallas Fed's Logan had the opposite presumption.

Indeed a third U.S. central banker speaking early in the day, Governor Michelle Bowman, signaled she feels further policy tightening may yet be appropriate, unless inflation drops more convincingly. The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate five full percentage points over the past 14 months - the fastest pace of tightening in 40 years. Yes," Fed Governor Philip Jefferson said at a monetary policy conference at the Hoover Institution. That's notable from a policymaker who was among the first and most vocal to push for sharp rate hikes to fight inflation, back in mid-2021. But since then, he said, the Fed's rate hikes have helped bring down what had been a worrying rise in inflation expectations that, if left unchecked, could have sent actual inflation spiraling out of control.

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsInvestors and analysts took the Labor Department report on the whole as supporting the prospect that the Fed would pause its rate increases at the June 13-14 meeting. The PCE, which is the Fed's preferred gauge for its 2% inflation target, has been running at more than twice that level. Continued readings like the ones in April could weaken the case for pausing rate hikes. That's how increases in its policy rate influence economic activity. FEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting.

☆ Oil ticks up, but set for third week of losses over demand concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices rose slightly in Asian morning trade on Friday, but were set for a third straight week of losses after markets witnessed dramatic drops on fears of a weakening U.S. economy and slowing Chinese demand. For the week, Brent was set to close down 8.5%, while WTI was set to close 10.3% lower. "It has been a double whammy for oil prices," said Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG in Singapore. In China, factory activity unexpectedly contracted in April as orders fell and poor domestic demand dragged on the sprawling manufacturing sector. Service activity in China grew through April, though the rate of this expansion has slowed, data showed on Friday.

☆ Oil heads for third straight weekly loss as economic worries persist
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 5 (Reuters) - Oil prices held steady in early trading on Friday, but were set for a third straight week of losses after markets witnessed dramatic drops on fears of a weakening U.S. economy and slowing Chinese demand. For the week, Brent was set to close down 8.7%, while WTI was set to close 10.5% lower. Worries of a U.S. regional banking crisis persisted, worrying markets further, after PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) said it planned to explore strategic options. Traders are now focused on the release of U.S. employment data for April later in the day, hoping it could help gauge the health of the economy, as well as comments on monetary policy from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at the Economic Club of Minnesota. Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Apple comforts as payrolls loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Apple upped its dividend and authorized another $90 billion share repurchase program, same as a year ago. Apple's stock has outperformed most of Wall Street in 2023, up 28% year-to-date. After a torrid 2022, that narrow index is up 35% so far this year - far outstripping the Nasdaq 100's (.NDX) 18% gain and accounting for the bulk of the more modest 6% rise in the S&P500 <.S&P500>. And after three hefty daily retreats in a row for the S&P500 this week, futures are up 0.4% ahead of Friday's open. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

The path to the pause will roll out in marquee monthly data on the key topics of jobs and prices, but also weekly series tracking emerging concerns about the financial industry. Here's a guide to what's ahead:JOBS: Next release May 5The data calendar will let the Fed receive two monthly jobs reports, covering April and May, before its June 13-14 policy meeting. For the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the measure used to set the Fed's 2% inflation target, only the April report will be available. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsFEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting. The curtain of silence around the May meeting lifts on Friday, May 5, and Fed officials can speak publicly about their views through Friday, June 2.

☆ With the banking crisis on hold, the Fed is back to fighting inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The Federal Reserve's policy pendulum has swung back to inflation fighting. "The view is based on banking sector stress remaining contained, the economic expansion continuing and core inflation remaining stubbornly high." A cooling crisis Indeed, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other central bankers in late February and early March were indicating chances of half-point rate hikes . Watching the banks, and the market To be sure, the banking situation remains in flux and could yet shape Fed policy. At the same time, the two-year Treasury note yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy moves, has jumped about half a percentage point over the past two weeks.

Nearly 90% - 94 of 105 - of the economists who participated in the latest Reuters poll, predicted the U.S. central bank would hike its key policy rate by 25 basis points to the 5.00%-5.25% range at a May 2-3 meeting, in line with market pricing. Beyond that, 59 of 100 economists expected the Fed to keep its policy rate unchanged through at least this year. Only 26 respondents with an end-2023 view forecast a cut, similar to market expectations. "We maintain the first rate cut in March 2024. In an exclusive interview with Reuters this week, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard called for a much higher peak policy rate than currently expected, as inflation remains stubbornly high.

The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.2%, thanks to a broad-based decline in equities around the world. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures , fell between 0.3-0.5%, suggesting a touch of weakness at the opening bell. The Fed's "beige book" of economic conditions is published on Wednesday and appearances are due from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams. In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, St Louis Fed President James Bullard said that, far from pausing, the central bank should keep raising interest rates, based on how persistent inflation has proven to be. UK inflation fell to 10.1% in March, from February's 10.4% - above expectations for a decline to 9.8% and the highest in western Europe, according to data on Wednesday.

☆ Stocks slip as focus falls back on Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed's "beige book" of economic conditions is published later on Wednesday and appearances are due from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams. Markets are pricing an 86% chance the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at the May meeting, and that wasn't swayed terribly much by conflicting outlooks from two non-voting Fed officials on Tuesday. St Louis Fed President James Bullard told Reuters the Fed ought to keep raising rates to subdue persistent inflation. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC he thinks the Fed should hike one more time then pause to consider the next move. The prospect of peak rates has been applying downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

☆ Gold drifts lower on firmer dollar, Fed rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies US dollar up 0.1%Markets pricing in 25 bps rate hike by Fed in MayApril 19 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar regained some ground, while traders assessed chances of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates just once more in May before pausing. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,003.03 per ounce, as of 0337 GMT. The dollar index was up 0.1%, making gold expensive for buyers holding other currencies. "While that may provide an anchor for gold prices, given the recent rally and overextended technical conditions, the possibility of some unwinding (in prices) upon validation of the Fed's rate outlook may still remain on the table." Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates dim the non-yielding asset's appeal.

☆ Gold slips on firmer dollar, Fed rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices fell on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar regained some ground, while investors assessed the chances of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates just once more in May before pausing. Higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal. The Fed should continue raising rates on the back of recent data showing inflation remains persistent, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Tuesday. But Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said one more hike "should be enough" before taking a step back to "see how our policy is flowing through the economy." Markets see a 95% chance of the Bank of England raising interest rates next month.

☆ Debt ceiling drama is back and it's coming for markets. Here's what to know as a deadline looms.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

If the trend returns to the upside, it'll buck many of the gloomiest predictions of a crushing earnings recession and a painful stock market sell-off — at least for now. Last week, markets started showing early signs that investors are stressed about a possible US default as the deadline looms without an agreement in sight. Join us in demanding a reasonable negotiation, a responsible debt ceiling, an agreement that brings spending under control" McCarthy said. Here are the latest market moves. Here's why Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson doesn't believe in the latest stock market rally.

Unlike a growing number of central banks in Asia who have pressed the pause button or are close to doing so, the BoE and ECB are both expected to continue raising rates in their battle to get inflation back down towards target. St Louis Fed president James Bullard is much more hawkish though, as he confirmed in an interview with Reuters. The central banks of Australia, Indonesia, India, Singapore and South Korea have all paused, and the Philippine central bank governor signaled a pause in May. Research from the Bank for International Settlements shows that the global tightening cycle since the start of last year is the most synchronized and strongest over the past 50 years, with more than 95% of central banks raising their policy rates. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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