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download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. He believes that the rise of the US trade deficit over the past year will likely make it a key issue for both political parties. AdvertisementAlthough the Trump administration has traditionally been linked to trade wars and more protectionist measures, Biden's administration maintained the Chinese tariffs. It will create more manufacturing jobs and boost demand for domestic companies with in the logistics and supply chain process. A September 19 research note from Bank of America suggests that this shift is set to benefit domestic small- and mid-cap stocks most.
Persons: , Trump, Manish Kabra, Kabra, Jill Carey Hall Organizations: Service, Business, US, of, Tax, Bank of America Locations: China, Red
By 2017, he decided he had to pivot and elected to give stock trading a try. "You're going to panic-sell at the lows; you're going to panic-buy at the highs. You're going to trade when the stock is zigging and zagging and get chopped up. Related storiesOn a chart, it can often look like a wide space between two candles after the stock's price opens significantly higher than where it was in premarket hours. AdvertisementOn January 19, during pre-market hours, the stock's price spiked, causing a gap up on the opening.
Persons: Christian Flanders, Flanders, Norman Zadeh, it's Organizations: Service, Business, US, IT Solutions Locations: Flanders, he's
Read previewThe popularity of exchange-traded funds has skyrocketed over the past decade as more Americans have opted for them over mutual funds. Further, between 2014 and 2024, assets under management in ETFs were at 16%, versus 84% for mutual funds. Related storiesAn increased number of money managers are choosing to offer so-called model portfolios using ETFs as the main vehicles. This means managers opting for the ETF model portfolios have a range of active funds and expertise to choose from. It's a combination of ETFs, mutual funds, and separate accounts that are merged into a strategy.
Persons: , Matt Barry, Jon Maier, It's, Maier, Barry, Merrill Lynch's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Touchstone Investments, Morgan, Management
It's also common to draw parallels between the dot-com bubble and today's hype, leading investors to wonder if there's an AI bubble that's about to pop, too. Goldman Sachs' big AI headline of the month is "To buy, or not to buy, that is the question." The note from September 5, led by Peter Oppenheimer, suggests the answer is "to buy" but also to diversify. And the third is the application providers, which are the companies creating services for end users to harness AI. It comes from machine learning or big data workloads that various companies and governments use, Belton noted.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Peter Oppenheimer, John Belton, doesn't, Brian Colello, Nancy Tengler, that's, it's, Tengler, Wall, Larry Ellison, Colello, Belton Organizations: Service, Business, Gabelli Funds, Morningstar Equity Research, Investments, Nvidia, Companies, Microsoft, Intel, Oracle, IBM, Broadcom, AMD, Cadence Design Systems, Google, AWS, Eaton Corporation Locations: GenAI, Belton
The top 1% aren't the only ones with a target on their backs: Those in the $400,000 to $1 million income bracket could see their capital gains tax rise under her. There has also been concern about whether the step-up in basis, a provision that adjusts capital gains taxes for inherited assets, could be repealed. A 1031 Exchange is popularly used to sell and buy investment property while deferring capital gains tax until future generations inherit it. Once they do, a step-up basis can be used to dismiss those previous capital gains taxes. AdvertisementAs for any impacts from the Trump administration, unilateral trade sanctions and tariffs would hurt the economy and be depressive to the market, Malek said.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Kent Smetters, it's Harris, Smetters, Harris, Mark Malek, Siebert, Malek, Mike Reynolds, Reynolds, Harris hasn't, Trump, Sandi Bragar Organizations: Service, Democratic, Penn Wharton Budget, Business, Biden, Nvidia, Fund Locations: Wall, Washington, Rhode Island , New York , California, Nebraska , Indiana , Wyoming, China
Financial planner Nadine Burns says with the right strategy, you can reach your retirement goals. Below, Burns shares the strategy she uses to help her clients achieve their retirement goals. Understand your net worthBurns says understanding your net worth — and tracking it throughout your working years — is the first step to retiring comfortably. Your net worth should rise throughout your working years and allow you to retire with more assets than debts. To find your net worth, add up all of your assets then subtract your debts.
Persons: Nadine Burns, It's, , Burns, you've, doesn't Organizations: Service, Social Security, Invest, IRA
Leo and Faith Jean-Louis were paying about $2,200 in minimum monthly payments towards their debt. In order to maintain their debt payments, the couple had a minimum monthly payment of $2,200 between the two of them. At that rate, it would take them 15 years and cost them $125,000 in additional interest to pay off their debt. After returning from their honeymoon in Greece, they decided to tackle their debt and pay it off as soon as possible. Leo and Faith didn't want their kids to start their lives off financially behind or in debt like they did.
Persons: Leo, Faith Jean, Louis, , Leo Jean, Roth, Faith didn't, Faith, hadn't, doesn't, Faith babysat, couldn't Organizations: Service, Ramsey Locations: Greece
But even when her income rose, she still felt broke until she changed the way she managed money. At that time, she was working as a hairstylist in Minneapolis, making little more than minimum wage and struggling to pay her bills. One of the first things that a lot of business owners don't realize is how important it can be to have a set salary. Their overall goal was to have enough of an emergency fund that could cover both their living expenses and their business expenses for a year. But once all the amounts owed became clear, they were able to set goals to pay off each debt.
Persons: Rachel Pedersen, , Pedersen, " Pedersen, Poul Pedersen, doesn't, there's Organizations: Service Locations: Dakota, Minneapolis
Cooling global growth, continued geopolitical risks, and uncertainty around US election outcomes mean it could be a choppy ride for the next few months. But if US economic data stabilizes while global growth slows, as Bharadwaj expects, European currencies could be set for a violent snapback. "I do think that global growth right now is not holding up from our data trackers. "And in fact, we actually track global growth upgrades versus downgrades. And after a very long time, global growth downgrades are outpacing global growth upgrades, which indicates to me that even the global growth is not as rosy as markets are currently pricing it to be."
Persons: Jayati Bharadwaj, it's, Bharadwaj, you've Organizations: Service, TD Securities, Business, International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve, Securities Locations: China, Europe, India
Japan's low interest rates made its currency a cheap option to borrow and fund other trades in the US and worldwide. So there's $6 trillion sitting in money market funds that is being held hostage to politics, he added. Advertisement"We've had these episodes of market volatility in the past, and the only path was in and out of equities," Quinlan said. Remember, as interest rates come down, you lock in two-, five-, or 10-year yields. Those money market funds are going to come down as the interest rates come down."
Persons: , Joe Quinlan, Quinlan, it's, There's, You've, capex, Donald Trump, We've, Russell, We're Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Dow, Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, Business, Reserve, Big Tech, Labor Locations: China, Israel, Iran
Social media keeps catching Wall Street off guard
  + stars: | 2024-08-11 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +11 min
In 2015, he created TickerTags, a social media data aggregator that tracks company mentions, and sold it to Jefferies' M Science. To be fair…Speculating and making decisions based on social media trends is a risky wager. Wall Street doesn't always respond to social media trends that could negatively drive fundamentals because there aren't tools to understand the impacts, McKeown noted. In the event a social media trend is mentioned, it's not factored into their valuation model, Ober added. How social media sentiment plays into a thesis should depend on an investor's time horizon.
Persons: It's, Bud Light's, influencer Dylan Mulvaney, BUD, Kirk McKeown, Chris Camillo, Jefferies, Camillo, Bud, didn't, Paul Johnson, Laxman Narasimhan, misperception, Sara Senatore, I've, Senatore, Chipotle, Keith Lee, dollies, Brian Niccol, Goldman Sachs, They're, Matt Ober, they're, I'd, McKeown, it's, Ober Organizations: Service, Business, Anheuser, Busch, Wall Street, Pew Research Center, Molson, TAP, Starbucks, Nicusa Investment, Columbia Business School, of America Locations: Palestine, Gaza, SBUX
The third pattern he looks for, which he picked up from Minervini, is the volatility contraction pattern (VCP). AdvertisementIntraday VCPThe VCP pattern can be spotted over multiple days or weeks. The spike in green volume bars parallel to the first price spike demonstrates this in the chart below. AdvertisementFor Gajjala, it's an easier pattern to trade because the contraction period is longer than other patterns he watches for. Below is an example of a trade Gajjala took on Syntec Optics Holdings (OPTX) on November 17.
Persons: aren't, Gajjala, Mark Minervini, Norman Zadeh Organizations: Service, US, Business, Syntec Optics Holdings Locations: Dallas, Minervini
Thursday brought more negative news from the jobs market: unemployment insurance claims for the week ending July 27 were up by 14,000 from the previous week to 249,000. Stepping back from last week's weak data, chief investment officers and top strategists say the market is overreacting, and they're using this as a buying opportunity. Related storiesSimilarly, the manufacturing data is not as foreshadowing as it seems on the surface. "But the ISM manufacturing data can be a leading indicator of S&P earnings, particularly the new order number." "If you look at non-US stocks and you look at their valuations, they're trading at about 13 times earnings," Calcagni said.
Persons: Dow, we've, Philip Straehl, Morningstar, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Alicia Levine, Levine, it's, what's, Morningstar's Straehl, Simeon Hyman, Hyman, Donald Calcagni's, Calcagni Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Institute for Supply, Business, BNY, Big Tech, Mercer Advisors Locations: Americas
Advertisement"I had a full-time job at the time, and I even had a property manager managing the properties," Cabrera said. Dutton, who has dealt with sellers wanting out, says even property owners trying to offload the problem can lose money in the process. This way, if one unit loses money for whatever reason, the other units will continue to cash flow. In terms of considerations when thinking about the location of an investment property, Dutton noted that one of the biggest expenses buyers often miss, especially in places like South Florida, is property taxes. Another tax mistake buyers make is checking the current property tax and assuming they will pay the same amount.
Persons: it's, Whitney Dutton, Daniel Cabrera, Cabrera, Cabrera isn't, Shelby Johnson, Johnson, Dutton, Chrissy Grigoropoulus, Grigoropoulus Organizations: Service, Native Realty, US Army Locations: South Florida, San Antonio, North Carolina, Florida, New York's Nassau County, New York
Either way, fiscal spending or tax cuts will increase the deficit. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementIt will be a guessing game from now until November as investors try to forecast which party will soon take Washington. Fiscal spending from policies passed during President Joe Biden's administration, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), CHIPS Act, and Jobs Act, means more money out. On the other hand, the potential for widened tax cuts from Republican-favored policies would mean less money in.
Persons: , Joe Biden's Organizations: Washington, Service, Jobs, Republican, Business Locations: Washington
Bitcoin's price has surged by more than 500% over the past five years. According to TipRanks, the 10 stocks below are buy-rated and score well on other metrics. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The round of spot bitcoin ETFs approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission in January helped increase flows into the asset. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: TipRanks, , bitcoin, Franklin Templeton Organizations: Service, Securities and Exchange Commission, Wall, Fidelity, Business Locations: BlackRock, bitcoin
The put is OTM because the strike price is below the spot price. Related storiesIf you have a bullish outlook on the IWM, you expect the share price to continue rising or at least not drop below the strike price. Picking the appropriate strike price is subjective and based on a trader's risk tolerance and the premium they're looking for. Tastylive, options chainSince options contracts are purchased in lots of 100, it could seem nerve-racking to think you may need to accept delivery of those shares. Worst-case scenario, you end up owning IWM shares at a cost below what you would have bought them for on the spot market, Dierking said.
Persons: Russell, Liz Dierking, Dierking, IWM, That's Organizations: Service, Nasdaq Locations: IWM
AdvertisementThe chart below shows a Trump lead based on how users are betting money on an outcome on Predictit's platform. So there's not really any change to tax policy and Trump has been looking to cut taxes further on companies and potentially on individuals as well." AdvertisementInflationWhere inflation is concerned, under a second Trump administration, expect a 10% import tariff on all goods. BondsAdvertisementExpectations for increased deficits, higher inflation, and slower growth have put upward pressure on interest rates over the last few weeks, Goldberg noted. And going forward, it's going to continue to put downward pressure on bond prices and upward pressure on yields, he added.
Persons: We've, Gennadiy Goldberg, Kamala Harris, — Goldberg, Goldberg, there's, Trump, Trump's, it's, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, TD Securities, Business, Republican, Trump, Predictit, Republican House, Democratic, Republicans, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Pew Research Center Trump, Washington, Federal Reserve, Investors Locations: Washington, Mexico, Canada
Elliot has observed hedge funds expressing bullishness on the dollar in two main ways. Hedge funds are also taking long positions in exchange-traded funds specific to sectors likely to benefit from a loosening of regulatory constraints. In response, Elliot says hedge funds are moving into short positions on long-duration bonds, which is five years or more. Finally, given the rising uncertainty around inflation and deficit spending, hedge funds have shifted to increasing their positions in gold by buying gold futures contracts, he said. These contracts set up agreements on the purchase of a predetermined amount of gold at a set price by a set date.
Persons: Bob Elliott, Elliot Organizations: Service, Federal, Trump, Republican Locations: Washington
Read previewAs we near the November elections, investors are increasingly focused on what a Donald Trump win would mean for global markets and economies. The charts below show how stock sectors moved in the 24 hours after the debate and how a Trump administration might impact sectors with varying regulatory burdens. If Trump wins, investors will need to cut through the noise and at least understand how he might impact different parts of the economy. Where monetary policy is concerned, leading economist Christophe Barraud believes a Trump administration could pressure the Federal Reserve to be very accommodative on rates, in other words, steeper or sooner cuts. It expects a Trump Administration to allow LNG export permits after the Biden Administration attempted to halt them.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Joe Biden, Trump, Solita, Samantha Lamas, Goldman, Goldman's Jan Hatzius, Christophe Barraud, Bloomberg Businessweek Trump, Morgan Stanely, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Trump, Business, Trump Media, Technology, UBS, Americas Global Wealth Management, Morningstar, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Businessweek, Korea, Asia Pacific's, Republican, Trump Administration, Biden Locations: Predictit, Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, Germany, Asia, Goldman Sachs, Washington
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Whether it's the markets or the Federal Open Market Committee, no one seems to be getting their forecasts right. But if you want the closest thing to accuracy, French economist Christophe Barraud may be your best bet. One caveat is that Trump would need 60 seats in the Senate to implement policy changes smoothly, Barraud noted. Where uncertainty in a Trump presidency remains is on the geopolitical front, Barraud noted.
Persons: , Christophe Barraud, haven't, Barraud, it's, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, He's Organizations: Service, Federal, Market, Market Securities Monaco, Bloomberg, Business, Trump, Republican, Fed Locations: China, delinquencies, France, Italy, Ukraine, Russia
Read previewJohn Rodrigues works a full-time 9-to-5 job as an associate manager in operations at PGIM, Prudential's investment management arm. And vice versa, if the index is high, it signals high volatility and fearful investors, indicating that the market may be reaching a low. Here, he can see different metrics for stocks, allowing him to watch for signals he likes to trade on. He also looks at the stock's day's volume; if it rises above 25% of its 50-day volume, it's another likely trade. But perhaps one of the best signals that a breakout is about to really outperform the market is those with very high volume relative to the past two years.
Persons: , John Rodrigues, doesn't, Bob Brinker, Brinker, Rodrigues, Norman Zadeh, " Rodrigues Organizations: Service, New York Stock Exchange, Business, Companies, Nasdaq, Investors Intelligence, IBD, Micro Locations: PGIM, Chicago
But a Republican win yielded a higher return at 15.3%. The S&P 500 fell 9% in 2000 as the tech bubble peaked months before George W. Bush's Republican win. This could increase the chances of a Trump win — at least, that's what the market thinks. The two graphs below from a Goldman Sachs note on July 8 indicate what prediction markets perceive as each candidate's odds of winning following the debate. On that front, consumer discretionary stocks are perceived as riskier under a Trump administration due to the threat of increased tariffs.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, George W, Barack Obama, Biden's, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Organizations: Service, Republican, Democratic, Business, Bush's Republican, Trump, Republican Presidency, Republican House, Senate, Biden
Read previewGoverdhan Gajjala is a day trader who is also a software consultant working from home. The flexibility of his day-to-day schedule opened a doorway to pick up stock trading as a side gig. Too many unknowns, including sudden news headlines, could pop up along the way and impact a stock's price. For him, this meant turning to day trading, where stocks are only held between seconds to hours but not overnight. He joined the course's private access program, a paid educational platform for trading stocks, and spent a year learning the content.
Persons: , it's, Gajjala, Mark Minervini, Norman Zadeh Organizations: Service, Business, US, PSQ
Stocks within the adoption frameworkWhile there could be a few angles one might use to determine where a company fits within AI's development, Goldman Sachs created their version of AI's adoption phases. Additional early winners of AI were mega-cap technology names that had steep earnings growth and attracted a lot of investors. Throughout 2023, there was a 53% gap in annual earnings growth between the top five AI names and the rest of the S&P 500. But as we enter 2025, Goldman estimates that the earnings growth between the big five and the rest of the market will tighten. The graph below demonstrates Goldman's forecast of a slowdown in earnings growth from the concentrated names and a modest pickup for the broader market.
Persons: , It's, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman Organizations: Service, Business, Chief US, Nvidia, Microsoft, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Management
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