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Former President Donald Trump's universal tariff proposals could cause prices to skyrocket on clothing, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear and travel goods, according to a new report from the National Retail Federation. Trump has said he would impose a 10% or 20% tariff on all imports across the board. In both cases, the NRF found that the impact of Trump's tariffs would be "dramatic" double-digit percentage price spikes in nearly all six retail categories that the trade group examined. The report found that the greatest price spikes could occur for toys: between 36.3% and 55.8%. The report found that the more expensive retail goods would lead to a $46 billion decrease in purchasing power, if Trump imposes both universal tariffs and especially high China rates.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, Mark Zandi Organizations: Abercrombie, Fitch, National Retail Federation, Republican, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC Locations: Manhattan, New York City, China, Mexico, Raleigh , North Carolina
CNBC Daily Open: Eve of Election Day
  + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Voters cast their votes during early voting in the U.S. presidential election at a polling station in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. November 3, 2024. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Asia markets climb ahead of China's parliament meetingU.S. stocks rallied Friday to kick off November, as traders shrugged off a disappointing jobs report. Asia-Pacific markets rose Monday as investors watch the U.S. election, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and China's monetary policy meeting starting Monday.
Persons: Dow Jones, shrugged, Harris, Ting Lu, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: U.S, CNBC, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Boeing, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal, National People's, Trump, Nomura, Democratic, Des Moines Register, Iowa Locations: Detroit , Michigan, U.S, Asia, Pacific, China, Beijing, Iowa Iowa, Iowa
CNBC Daily Open: One day more to elections
  + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Markets shrug off weak jobs reportStocks rallied Friday to kick off November, led by Amazon and as traders shrugged off a disappointing jobs report. Harris gains ground in IowaIowa is not a state that many pollsters predicted will break for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. That, instead of the sitting president, could hold the key to how stocks perform going forward.
Persons: Blythe Andrews , Jr, Dow Jones, Stocks, shrugged, Warren Buffett, Harris, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: Public, CNBC, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Boeing, Amazon, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Berkshire, Bank of America, Democratic, Des Moines Register, Iowa Locations: Tampa , Florida, U.S, Berkshire, Omaha, Apple, Iowa Iowa, Iowa
More than 750 job seekers shared their frustrations trying to find work recently. AdvertisementMore than 750 Americans between the ages of 18 and 76 who have recently struggled to find work shared their experiences with Business Insider. Through emails and an online form, readers shared stories of fierce competition for white-collar roles and lower-paying gigs alike. Over three dozen respondents said they pulled from their 401(k) or IRAs to stay afloat. Meanwhile, some executives with 30 years of experience said their credentials may have prevented them from getting interviews for lower-paying white-collar roles.
Persons: , Zers, millennials, Scott Fite, he'll, Fritz Boyle, he's, hasn't, Boyle, haven't, Aaron Terrazas, they're, Chris Jorgensen, it's, Stephanie Allen, they've, Sean Tetpon, Tetpon, I'm Organizations: Service, Business, SNAP, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, didn't, IBM, University of Idaho Locations: Americas, Pennsylvania, Portland , Oregon, Utah, Maryland
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict relatively muted S&P 500 returns over the next decade. AdvertisementMuch has been said about the gloomy outlook for the S&P 500 that some of Wall Street's largest investment banks conveyed in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs said in October that the S&P 500 would return 3% annually, on average, over the next 10 years, underperforming current 10-year Treasury yields. Goldman Sachs"There is little argument that U.S. stock market valuations are elevated compared to historical averages. Investors appeared to do that, with the S&P 500 rising 0.4% on Friday to 5,728, 2.3% below all-time highs.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lance Roberts, Roberts, , It's, Goldman, Sam Kuhn Organizations: JPMorgan, RIA, Service, Bank of America, RIA Advisors, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Wall
As the Fed lowers rates, mortgage rates are expected to go down, though next week's cut is already priced in and is unlikely to have an impact. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowWhat Are Today's Mortgage Refinance Rates? See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates are hovering around 6.50%, according to Zillow data. But now that inflation has decelerated and the Fed has started cutting rates, mortgage rates have trended down.
Persons: they've, Freddie Mac, it's, Fannie Mae Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Boeing, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Fed, Mortgage, Association, ARM, . Government Locations: U.S, Chevron, Government
The DOJ and FBI are preparing to combat election lies but have limited authority. Affordable Care Act coverage is available for DACA recipients for the first time. For the DOJ that means setting up an Election Threats Task force, focusing on the prosecutions of people who threaten election officials. To understand how that might play out, NBC News interviewed current and former Justice Department and FBI officials, as well as legal experts. For many DACA recipients who are unable to get job-based health insurance, a lack of access to government-funded programs meant their insurance options were limited or too expensive.
Persons: Donald Trump, , , , Trump, don’t, Read, Helene, Milton, Sarahi, Young Thug, Georgia’s, Sean “ Diddy ” Combs, Nicole MacDonald, isn’t, Biden, they’d, — Rich Bellis, Elizabeth Robinson Organizations: DOJ, FBI, Affordable, Trump, Justice Department, NBC News, Boeing, of Labor Statistics ’, University of Washington, Republican, Atlanta, NFL, NBC Locations: U.S, Swedish
Expect a “noisy” jobs report Friday that will be heavily affected by storms and a labor strike, economists say. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report that the U.S. economy gained 110,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%. “Unfortunately, it won’t be easy to interpret the October jobs report,” Chris Waller, a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors, said earlier this month. At 4.1%, the unemployment rate is still historically low, while the rate of inflation has effectively returned to the Fed’s 2% annual target. “Without an increase in hiring, even moderate levels of job losses will likely cause the unemployment rate to pick up.”
Persons: ” Chris Waller, Helene, Milton, Jason Redmond, , Julia Pollak, Pollak, Biden Organizations: Labor Statistics, Boeing, Fed’s, of Governors, International Association of Machinists, Aerospace Workers, Getty, ZipRecruiter, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S . Department of Labor, Citi Locations: U.S, Tuesday’s, Seattle, AFP
Treasury yields rise as investors look to key jobs data
  + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by over one basis point to 4.2947%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 4.1806% after rising by more than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Friday as investors awaited the all-important October jobs report and digested key economic data released throughout the week. Investors weighed a series of key economic reports published throughout the week, including Thursday's personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge. It is also some of the last key economic data before the U.S. election next week.
Persons: Dow Jones, nonfarm payrolls, payrolls Organizations: Treasury, Federal, PCE, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Expect the unexpected in the jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +11 min
In any other month, the finishing touch would be a clean reading on the labor market from the official jobs report. However, a common thread among economists is that the strikes and hurricanes could take a 100,000-job bite out of the October jobs report. The last time there were back-to-back major hurricanes — Harvey and Irma in 2017 — the forecasts for the following month’s jobs report were for a loss of 33,000 positions. And each contribute to two of the biggest numbers in the monthly jobs report. A key date to keep in mind for the jobs report is October 12, as it anchors the “reference period” for both surveys.
Persons: , Claudia Sahm, “ It’s, That’s, aren’t, FactSet, Joe Brusuelas, — Harvey, Irma, Sahm, Oliver Allen, Milton, , Harris, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump’s, We’re, Biden, Jared Bernstein, Joe Biden’s, Organizations: CNN, Boeing, Reserve, New Century Advisors, Labor, Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics, of Labor, Challenger, ADP, BLS, RSM, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Republicans, The New York Times, Siena College, Associated Press Locations: Washington and Oregon
Soda is making a comeback
  + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( Nathaniel Meyersohn | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
Cans of Dr Pepper soda are displayed on June 3, 2024 in San Anselmo, California. While consumers are drinking more Coke, Coke Zero, Dr Pepper and Canada Dry, Pepsi’s soda sales are struggling. ‘Diet Coke Break’“Dirty soda,” a popular TikTok trend that combines soda with syrup and cream, has also driven interest in soda brands among younger consumers interested in creating their own soda concoctions. TikTok has also recently become filled with “Dirty Diet Coke,” “Crispy Diet Coke” and “DietCokeBreak” recipe videos where people leave cans of Diet Coke in the fridge for weeks and then pour them into a glass, sometimes with citrus powder, to get the most fizziness. Singer Dua Lipa gave Coke its latest viral hit this month when she posted a video sharing her Diet Coke recipe, which combines Diet Coke, pickle juice and jalapeño sauce.
Persons: guzzling Coke, Dr Pepper, It’s, , Robert Ottenstein, “ There’s, Coke, Pepper, Justin Sullivan, ” Timothy Cofer, Duane Stanford, Noam Galai, Laura Schmidt, Pepper’s, Cofer, Angus Mordant, Singer Dua Lipa, Gordon Ramsay, ” Kristen Hollingshaus, , Diet Coke, CNN’s Ramishah Maruf Organizations: New, New York CNN, Consumers, Heineken, ISI, Centers for Disease Control, Evercore ISI, World Health Organization, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Companies, Pepsi, Beverage Digest, New York, Wine, Food Festival, Stanford, University of California, PepsiCo Inc, Bloomberg, Getty, PepsiCo, Gatorade, Netflix, Dirty, Singer Dua, Coke, CNN, Diet Locations: New York, San Anselmo , California, America, Canada, Latham , New York, United States, TikTok
The jobs report for October came in much weaker than expected, and employment growth across different industries painted a mixed picture for the U.S. economy. The biggest contribution last month came from health care and social assistance, with 51,300 new positions added in that area, per data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If private education is included with the health care group, like some economists do, the category would have shown even more growth at 57,000. Government had the second-highest gains in the period, seeing jobs surge by 40,000. Meanwhile, wholesale trade and construction also saw some gains, recording growth of 10,400 and 8,000, respectively.
Persons: That's Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Government Locations: U.S
The US economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, way under the forecast of 106,000. Labor market watchers expected cooler job growth than September's, partly because of recent hurricanes and strikes. AdvertisementThe US economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, falling way short of the forecast of 106,000. AdvertisementThe mixed results in the jobs report could complicate the Fed's interest rate plans into next year. The new jobs report is the last US employment report before the presidential election on November 5.
Persons: , Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton, Milton, Lydia Boussour, NORC, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: Labor, Service, Hurricanes, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Statistics, Boeing, Reserve, AP Locations: Hurricane, United States
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 for the month, down sharply from September and below the Dow Jones estimate for 100,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. In what had already been expected to be a downbeat report, October posted the smallest gain since December 2020. A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons also was unchanged at 7.7%. In the report narrative, the BLS noted that the Boeing strike likely subtracted 44,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, which lost 46,000 positions overall. The meager jobs numbers along with wages about in line with expectations help cement another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.
Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Helene, Milton, Cory Stahle, Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, Lisa Sturtevant Organizations: of Labor Statistics, BLS, Boeing, Federal Reserve, Republican, Bright MLS Locations: U.S
Inflation increased slightly in September and moved closer to the Federal Reserve’s target, according to a Commerce Department report Thursday. The personal consumption expenditures price index showed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% increase for the month, with the 12-month inflation rate at 2.1%, both in line with Dow Jones estimates. Fed officials target inflation at a 2% annual rate, a level it has not achieved since February 2021. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast but the same as in August. Consumer spending rose 0.5%, topping the outlook by 0.1 percentage point.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Commerce Department, Fed, Energy, Labor Department, of Labor Statistics
But they may ditch their argument Friday morning, when the October jobs report is set to be released — just days before Election Day. Groshen disagreed, saying that initial estimates of the monthly change in hiring are “noisier than they used to be” because of the lower response. However, that gets smoothed out in later revisions as response rates improve with the additional time. That exacerbates the funding shortfall at the BLS, where inflation-adjusted funding has steadily declined over the past decade, she said. That would help improve, for instance, Federal Reserve officials’ ability to make interest rate decisions that hinge on the latest labor market data, Groshen told CNN.
Persons: Donald Trump, Hurricanes Helene, Milton, Republican Sen, Marco Rubio, , Harris, ” Rubio, Rubio, Erica Groshen, Trump, Karoline Leavitt, Kamala Harris “, Laura Kelter, Groshen, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Hurricanes, Republican, Biden, Trump, Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Department of Labor, Census Bureau, Management, CNN, Biden Administration, Employment, Federal Locations: New York, Florida, America
Goldman Sachs estimates that Helene could shave as much as 50,000 off the payrolls count, though Hurricane Milton probably happened too late to impact the October count. The Boeing strike, meanwhile, could lower the total by 41,000, added Goldman, which is forecasting total payrolls growth of 95,000. Data has been solidYet indicators leading up to the much-watched jobs report show that hiring has continued apace and layoffs are low, despite the damage done from the storms and the strikes. Still, the White House is estimating that the events cumulatively may hit the payrolls count by as many as 100,000. The "disruptions will make interpreting this month's jobs report harder than usual," Jared Bernstein, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, said Wednesday.
Persons: Angus Mordant, Dow Jones, Milton, Michael Arone, Arone, Goldman Sachs, Helene, Hurricane Milton, Goldman, Jared Bernstein Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, of Labor Statistics, Hurricanes, Boeing, State Street Global Advisors, of Economic Advisers Locations: Catskill , New York, U.S, Hurricane
Key Fed inflation rate hits 2.1% in September, as expected
  + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Inflation increased slightly in September and moved closer to the Federal Reserve's target, according to a Commerce Department report Thursday. The personal consumption expenditures price index showed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% increase for the month, with the 12-month inflation rate at 2.1%, both in line with Dow Jones estimates. Fed officials target inflation at a 2% annual rate, a level it has not achieved since February 2021. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast but the same as in August. In September, the Fed slashed the rate by a half percentage point, a move virtually unprecedented during an economic expansion.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Commerce Department, Fed, Energy, Labor Department, of Labor Statistics
Although sentiment is improving (more on that soon), poll after poll suggests that Americans hold largely negative views about the US economy. And the US economy remains a job-creation machine, adding 368,000 jobs per month on average during the Biden administration, a record high. But they’re still growing at a 3.9% adjusted rate, according to the Department of Labor. A recent study from the Brookings Institution, released last week, found a correlation between economic sentiment and political affiliation with the party in control of the White House. When Trump took office, Republican economic sentiment surged, while Democratic sentiment cratered.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Biden, Trump, Covid, That’s, Donald Trump, they’re Organizations: CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Gross, Economic, International Monetary Fund, Labor, BEA, US Department of Housing, Urban Development, Bank of America, Brookings Institution, White, Democratic, Republican, Democrat
Expect the unexpected in Friday’s jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +10 min
In any other month, the finishing touch would be a clean reading on the labor market from the official jobs report. However, a common thread among economists is that the strikes and hurricanes could take a 100,000-job bite out of the October jobs report. The last time there were back-to-back major hurricanes — Harvey and Irma in 2017 — the forecasts for the following month’s jobs report were for a loss of 33,000 positions. And each contribute to two of the biggest numbers in the monthly jobs report. A key date to keep in mind for the jobs report is October 12, as it anchors the “reference period” for both surveys.
Persons: , Claudia Sahm, “ It’s, That’s, aren’t, FactSet, Joe Brusuelas, — Harvey, Irma, Sahm, Oliver Allen, Milton, , Harris, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump’s, We’re, Biden, Jared Bernstein, Joe Biden’s, Organizations: CNN, Boeing, Reserve, New Century Advisors, Labor, Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics, of Labor, Challenger, ADP, BLS, RSM, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Republicans, The New York Times, Siena College, Associated Press Locations: Washington and Oregon
CNN —Private sector hiring blew past expectations in October, another sign that the US labor market remains on solid footing, payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday. Non-governmental employers added 233,000 jobs in October, a sharp acceleration from the 159,000 net increase reported for September, according to ADP’s latest National Employment Report. Wednesday’s gains throttled economists’ expectations for job growth to slow to a mere 108,000 jobs from the initial estimate of 143,000, FactSet estimates show. Pantheon Macroeconomics is sticking with its forecast of 100,000 payroll gains, according to an investors note sent Wednesday. And while a resurgence in the labor market could raise concerns about a reacceleration in inflation, October’s ADP data showed otherwise, Richardson said.
Persons: Nela Richardson, Hurricane Helene, ADP’s tabulations, ” Richardson, Richardson, , Irma, ” Samuel Tombs, Milton …, Wednesday’s, Organizations: CNN, ADP, Boeing, Labor Department, of Labor Statistics, Pantheon, Companies, Federal Reserve Locations: Hurricane Milton, Carolina, Florida, Milton, South Atlantic
September's payrolls report exceeded expectations, but economists see weak gains for October. Even with lower expectations, a poor print could reset the market's narrative around a soft landing. AdvertisementThe narrative around ongoing labor-market strength revived with September's payrolls report, which topped economists' expectations by over 100,000 jobs. "The October jobs report will likely show a severe but short-lived hit from hurricanes Helene and Milton," Adams said. Another sign that September's jobs numbers may have been overstated is that other employment indicators haven't started to trend upwards.
Persons: September's, , Hurricanes Milton, Helene, Tom Essaye, Ben McMillan, McMillan, Goldman Sachs, there's, Goldman, Claudia Sahm, Michael Cuggino, Bill Adams, Milton, Adams, Neil Dutta, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Dutta Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Hurricanes, Boeing, IDX Advisors, of Labor Statistics, Comerica, Funds, Federal Reserve, Macro, BLS, PMI
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says the Fed will cut rates just once more this year. The market sees two more 25 basis point cuts before the end of the year. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve will disappoint markets by cutting interest rates just one more time in 2024, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said. Fink said the Fed will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year amid a rise in global inflation. The central bank kicked off its easing cycle with a jumbo 50 basis point cut last month.
Persons: Larry Fink, , Fink, " Fink, we're, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Organizations: BlackRock, Fed, Service, Reserve, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs Act, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC Locations: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The first burst on Tuesday — a critical read on activity within the jobs market — showed that the once too-tight labor market is starting to look more like its pre-pandemic days. Economists were expecting the number of job openings to land at around 7.9 million, declining from the prior month’s initial estimate of 8.04 million, according to FactSet estimates. The decline in job openings reflects a labor market that has slowed back to a pre-pandemic pace after experiencing years of blockbuster growth. “Decreasing or subdued job openings, quits and hiring rates last month all point to a cooler labor market compared to one year ago,” Elizabeth Renter, senior economist for NerdWallet, wrote in commentary issued Tuesday. It’s also likely the last clean piece of labor market data: The ongoing Boeing strike and Hurricanes Helene and Milton are expected to heavily distort jobs data starting with the month of October.
Persons: ” Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet, aren’t, It’s, Hurricanes Helene, Milton, Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, “ Employers, Labor, Boeing, Hurricanes
The U.S. Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates as much as markets expect because "embedded inflation" is too high, Blackrock CEO Larry Fink said Tuesday, speaking at a CEO-studded panel in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The Biden administration's legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, have pushed those efforts forward. "Today, I think we have governmental policies that are embedded inflationary, and, with that being said, we're not gonna see interest rates as low as people are forecasting," Fink said. The Fed cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points in September, signaling a turning point in its management of the U.S. economy and in its outlook for inflation. In late-September reports, strategists at J.P. Morgan and Fitch Ratings predicted two additional interest rate cuts by the end of 2024, and expect such reductions to continue into 2025.
Persons: Andrew Ross Sorkin, Larry Fink, Saudi Arabia . Fink, " Fink, onshoring, we're, Fink, Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Carlyle, Morgan Stanley Organizations: BlackRock, New York Times DealBook, Jazz, Lincoln Center, U.S . Federal, Blackrock, Saudi, Future Investment Initiative, Biden, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Fed, Fitch, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Standard Chartered Locations: New York City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, China, U.S
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