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Investors looking to participate in a new growth phase for electricity demand by purchasing the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) might be discouraged by its massive run over the past year. We'll review a way to play it with options that adds a buffer of protection. XLU .SPX mountain 2023-10-23 Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund since October low Despite this strong performance, the utilities select sector index still trades at just over 19 times forward earnings, a much cheaper multiple than the S & P's 23.5 times, and typically trades with significantly lower volatility as well. Spurring the economy will likely increase demand, but lowering rates improves the relative attractiveness of utilities for fixed-income investors as well. The trade XLU has an annual dividend yield of 2.8% and would make a fine addition to one's portfolio.
Persons: EVs Organizations: Utilities, Fund, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S
Gold is at a new record around $2,610 per ounce — more than ten times the low of just over $253 per ounce in 1999. @GC.1 ALL mountain Gold futures, long term Physical gold holders typically retain their assets through market fluctuations. The fundamental case A notable exception has been Saudi Arabia, which has historically acted as a liquidity source by buying gold when prices fell and selling as prices rose. In 2023, central banks purchased 1,037 metric tons of gold, with China buying nearly 225 tons, the largest amount since 1977. The trade As an alternative to buying gold directly, one could consider purchasing a longer-dated call option and selling a nearer-dated strangle to offset decay on the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) , which tracks the price of gold.
Persons: Carter Braxton Worth Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S, Saudi Arabia, China, Central
The Technology Select Sector Index, which the ETF 'XLK ' tracks, is down about 9% since the all-time high on July 10. This is even though the technology sector earnings have experienced a compound annual growth rate 2.7% greater than the S & P 500. The chart below reflects the earnings growth of the Technology Sector vs. the S & P 500 over the past 20 years in a log scale. Not only has the technology sector grown earnings faster, but earnings growth has also been more stable. While technology stocks are down almost 9% from their all-time highs, those all-time highs also reflected all-time high valuations.
Persons: we've, it's Organizations: Technology, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
How to trade Adobe's upcoming earnings using options
  + stars: | 2024-09-09 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
I'll break down various option trade scenarios into the earnings, focusing on one that will benefit from a big move in any direction. Adobe's Creative Cloud subscription model generates recurring revenue and maintains a solid customer base, from freelancers to large enterprises. Adobe's Document Cloud, featuring Acrobat and PDF solutions, is critical in digital document management and e-signatures. Of course, any bears out there could also use a calendar to bet on a downside move, using a $500 Sep/Jan put calendar. Combining the call and put calendar is a trade I usually refer to as a strangle swap.
Persons: Adobe Sensei, Jan, I've Organizations: Adobe, Labor, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPro Talks: Mike Khouw breaks down how he uses options to boost returnsCNBC's Mike Santoli and Mike Khouw, chief strategist at Openinterest.PRO, discuss how investors can use options trading to minimize risk and avoid chasing the stock market. Plus, he takes stock-specific questions from Pro subscribers.
Persons: Mike Khouw, Mike Santoli
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Pro Talks: Mike Khouw on getting the most out of options and how to trade market turbulenceCNBC Pro Talks features one-on-one interviews with Wall Street's top investors, smartest traders and rising stars. CNBC's Dominic Chu finds out what makes them tick, what makes them money, and how you can follow in their footsteps.
Persons: Mike Khouw, Wall, CNBC's Dominic Chu Organizations: CNBC
Deere (DE) , headquartered in Moline, Illinois, manufactures agricultural machinery, heavy equipment, forestry machinery, diesel engines, and related components. One of the oldest companies in the United States, Deere traces its history back to John Deere's "self-scouring plow" in 1837. However, even assuming 50 bushels per acre and a $5/bushel average price increase, the revenue per acre would have risen by ~$250/acre. However, while Deere & Company stock has underperformed the S & P this year, its enterprise value is nearly $100 Billion, almost double the company's valuation in January 2020, just before the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, DE options are pricing in a larger-than-average 6% move when the company reports earnings on Thursday.
Persons: John Deere's, John Deere, outperforming, Massey Ferguson Organizations: Deere, Caterpillar, Deere & Company, Nasdaq, Farmers, CNH Industry, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, ~$, ~ $ $ Locations: Moline , Illinois, United States, Mexico, Holland
Market Navigator: Playing Deere to the downside
  + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket Navigator: Playing Deere to the downsideMike Khouw, OpenInterest.Pro chief strategist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss playing the downside of Deere.
Persons: Deere, Khouw Organizations: Deere
The S & P 500 5,350 puts I discussed are trading nearly $170 as I write this, up ~ $12,000 per contract. This is even though the S & P 500 is down only 2.3% since I wrote that article over a month ago. One could roll those options down and out to the September 5200/4500 S & P 500 put spread which costs about $100. If you didn't read the earlier article, here are the components of a long put spread, sometimes referred to as a "Bear Put Spread." In periods of high implied volatility, option premiums are generally higher because the market anticipates larger price movements.
Persons: It's, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, it's, Trump Organizations: Starbucks, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, ~ $, & $ $
Weak jobs report spooks market
  + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWeak jobs report spooks marketMike Khouw, chief strategist at OpenInterest.PRO; Bonawyn Eison CIO and managing partner at Wynsource Partners; Karen Finerman, Metropolitan Capital CEO; and Carter Worth, Worth Charting founder and CEO, join 'Fast Money' to discuss the market after stocks fell sharply Friday due to a weaker-than-expected July jobs report, sparking recession fears.
Persons: Mike Khouw, Bonawyn, Karen Finerman, Carter Worth Organizations: Wynsource Partners, Metropolitan Capital
Over the past couple of weeks, energy stocks have outperformed as investors have moved away from technology, consumer discretionary and, well, everything else. I'll breaking down my market view and then describe a possible trade on a big energy stock into earnings. Several energy companies, including the three largest US-based integrated oil companies, report earnings this week. Exxon is up slightly this week as oil inches higher on Middle East tensions. XOM YTD mountain Exxon, year-to-date Crude prices and energy stocks are, technically, mixed bags.
Persons: I've, Brent, that's Organizations: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Exxon, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
It reports earnings this week and traders are expecting a monster move. Customers can browse a large inventory of used vehicles on Carvana's website, complete with detailed photos, 360-degree views, and vehicle history reports. Their model eliminates most of the negative associations of used car dealers by offering convenience, transparency, and a hassle-free car buying experience without the used car salesman. The company's stock fell more than 80% from February 2020 in the pandemic plunge before rallying 1600% on record used car margins caused by supply constraints due to pandemic shutdowns. CVNA YTD mountain Carvana (YTD) Carvana will report earnings this coming Wednesday after the bell and the 18% earnings-related implied move ranks near the top of the Russell 1000 companies regarding earnings volatility.
Persons: Carvana, Russell, I'm Organizations: Carvana, Machines, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Lamb Weston was the worst-performing stock in the S & P 500 on Wednesday on the back of disappointing quarterly results. The Idaho-based supplier of frozen potato, sweet potato, appetizer and vegetable products to restaurants said fully diluted earnings per share fell more than 70% from the year-earlier period. Consequently, the stock price fell over 28% on Wednesday. At ~ 1.2x price to sales, Lamb Weston is the cheapest it has been in the past ten years. Some of that increase is justifiable; the company demonstrated considerably higher operating volatility than they or investors expected, and the debt-to-equity increase as a function of the stock price decline is also a contributor.
Persons: Lamb Weston, they're, Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger Organizations: Berkshire, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Idaho
A 'Trump trade' hedge using options
  + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The reason this matters to investors is the so-called Trump trade. The stock market did very well following former President Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in November 2016, but smaller businesses, in particular, were beneficiaries. When we listen to some of the policy ideas that Trump has discussed, such as measures intended to protect smaller U.S.-based businesses, companies in the small-cap Russell 2000 index stand to benefit. Since the June 27 debate, the Russell 2000 has outperformed the S & P 500 by more than 6 percentage points. So, investors must acknowledge that if Trump's path to victory against Harris or a potential unknown pinch-hitter is less certain, then uncertainty must, by extension, apply to the Trump trade.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump's, Hillary Clinton, Trump, Russell, Harris, Organizations: Trump, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: IWM
How to trade Netflix using options ahead of earnings
  + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Netflix earnings are out after the bell Thursday. Breaking down Netflix fundamentals Netflix faces much more competition in the streaming industry than it did a few years ago. These concerns were valid, given that Netflix had accumulated over $10 billion in negative cash flow in the decade leading up to the pandemic through December 2019. Over the four fiscal years from 2020 to 2023, Netflix reported over $10 billion in free cash flow, reversing the negative cash flow of the previous decade. These calls, 8% out of the money, traded for $9 each, representing just under 1.4% of the current stock price.
Organizations: Netflix, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Black swans and grey Swans refer to events that profoundly impact markets and economies due to their unpredictability and importantly potential for substantial disruption. Generally, black swans are rare and lie outside regular expectations, but they have a significant impact when they occur. Their rarity is what makes them unique and their impact, when they do occur, is significant. The 2008 "Great Financial Crisis", sometimes abbreviated as "The GFC", the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and the COVID-19 pandemic have been described by some as "black swans". Still, there are ways to maintain some upside exposure without taking all the downside risk other than hedging.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Biden Organizations: Sunday, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Here I'll break down a nuanced options trade for on a transportation stock reporting next week. JB Hunt Transport Services, Inc . Unfortunately, this has been the case for JB Hunt lately. While I'm not prepared to call for a stellar quarter - economic pressures generally don't resolve quickly - much of the near-term damage may be done. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: you've, JB Hunt, Hunt, I'm Organizations: JB, Transport Services, Inc, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: you've, North America's, Lowell , Arkansas
With earnings season kicking off, we'll break down an industrial stock reporting Friday and how to trade it. Historically, Alcoa Inc. marked the start of earnings season, being one of the first major companies to report results. It has underperformed the S & P year-to-date, down nearly 2.5% and declining more than 20% since the late March highs. The company's sales data, reflecting real-time demand for industrial and construction supplies, is closely linked to economic health. The trade Given the expectation that the stock is unlikely to rebound on earnings, a calendar spread could be a suitable trade.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Wells, we're Organizations: Alcoa Inc, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Fastenal, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Wells, U.S, United States, Fastenal
The S & P 500 has yielded an average return of 7.9% since 1928, the year Herbert Hoover was elected. LBJ's presidency was also notable because he chose not to seek reelection in 1968, a year with a modest S & P return of 7.7%. A market correction could be more likely now than it seemed two weeks ago, as suggested by the current pricing of S & P options. Options such as SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) August $535 puts are currently priced around $5.50, about 1% of SPY's price, while S & P 500 5350 puts are around $50. SPY YTD mountain SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust If a correction does occur, investors could monetize, roll, or spread the hedge.
Persons: Herbert Hoover, Hoover, Carter, George H.W, George H.W . Bush, LBJ's, Trump Organizations: Trump, JFK, FDR, Nvidia, Trust, Democratic National Convention, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: George H.W .
Nike, which reports earnings after the bell Thursday, is trading at less than 24 times forward earnings. That's well below the longer-term average of about 29 times forward earnings. On Wednesday, Nike traded more than two times its average daily options volume. The most active call options were the September 100 calls, 8,000 of which traded at an average price of around $3.22. Declining sales (inflation-adjusted) and market share, leading to declining investor confidence, explain the lower-than-average historical multiple.
Persons: Nike's Organizations: Nike, Wednesday, North, Bloomberg, Dick's Sporting Goods, Olympic, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: , NKE, China, Asia, Pacific, America, Europe, Middle East, Africa
How to trade Carnival before earnings using options
  + stars: | 2024-06-24 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Both the dividend and debt levels have important implications for the stock's volatility, the price of options generally, and the relationship between the price of puts and calls. The trade All else equal, higher levels of corporate debt increase leverage and, therefore, the volatility of a company's equity. Carnival's options are nearly twice as expensive now as they were at the end of 2019, but the higher levels of debt justify higher prices. Typically, we do not recommend selling covered calls into earnings unless options prices are very high, as earnings provide a catalyst that can move a stock. In this case, an 8% implied move is substantial, but due to the high debt levels, it merely represents a fair price for the options.
Persons: Francis Scott Key Organizations: Management, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Baltimore, Norfolk , Virginia
ARM Holdings (ARM) offers several technologies instrumental in AI applications, notably its advanced processor designs and intellectual property. Operationally ARM Holdings is very well positioned. In this case, ARM Holdings is currently valued at about $174 billion, more than 56 times trailing 12 months revenues, and recent price action in particular looks extended. This would provide about $27 worth of upside from here, while providing $40 worth of downside insurance in the event that ARM Holdings pulls back. For example the $140/$175/$200 call spread risk reversal here incurs the risk of owning the stock at $140/share.
Persons: isn't Organizations: ARM Holdings, ARM
I'll review a way to play increased electricity use as electric vehicle adoption progresses around the country. Eversource Energy (ES) , a public utility holding company, operates in the electric distribution, electric transmission, natural gas distribution, and water distribution segments. It is involved in transmitting and distributing electricity, solar power facilities, and natural gas distribution. Eversource Energy was incorporated in 1927 and is headquartered in Springfield, Massachusetts. ES 1Y mountain Eversource Energy, 1-year The stock hasn't traded particularly well recently, but that may present an opportunity.
Persons: I've Organizations: California Air Resources Board, Nvidia, Eversource Energy, Utilities, Energy Locations: California, United States, Los Angeles, Connecticut , Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Springfield , Massachusetts
Geologist M. King Hubbert developed the "peak oil" theory in the 1950s. He famously projected that U.S. oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970, which seemed accurate as U.S. oil production did peak around 1970. Hubbert's prediction about the U.S. oil production peak was largely accurate for conventional oil production. Still, global oil production has not followed Hubbert's anticipated timeline due to discoveries, technological advancements, and new extraction techniques. Hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and deep-water drilling have significantly increased oil production beyond what was initially thought possible.
Persons: M, King Hubbert, Hubbert, Hubbert's, I've, Ford Organizations: Federal Electric Vehicle, ICE, GM, Ford, Trade Locations: United States, California
While most of the S & P 500 has reported first quarter earnings, three notable names — where the options trade quite actively — have yet to report. Signs of improvement in this area showed up with their last earnings report on March 11th. The stock was flat when they reported earnings in June of 2023, but it fell double digits when they reported in September and December last year. ORCL YTD mountain Oracle, Year-to-date A more cautious approach to a bullish bet on Oracle could be to buy call options. One could offset a portion of this cost (and the volatility crush that generally follows an earnings report) by selling a June 14th weekly $130 call.
Persons: aren't Organizations: Oracle, Oracle Corp, Broadcom Inc, Adobe Inc, Broadcom, Adobe, Gamestop, Microsoft, Amazon, AWS, Morningstar
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