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☆ Top Wall Street analysts are boosting stock market forecasts as the bull market charges on
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A number of bank research desks have raised their S&P 500 price targets in recent weeks. AdvertisementThe bull market hasn't weakened in the fourth quarter, and top bank research desks have been rushing to raise their S&P 500 price targets into year-end. AdvertisementBelski said his upgrade was based on strong market gains so far this year, which he says typically leads to stronger-than-normal gains in the fourth quarter. Lakos-Bujas kept his 4,200 price target for the S&P 500 unchanged, though. AdvertisementThe more upbeat 2024 forecasts come as the bull market charges on, with the S&P 500 up 3.2% in the last month and 22.6% this year.

Persons: —, hasn't, Goldman Sachs, Jonathan Golub, Patrick Palfrey, David Kostin, Kostin, Brian Belski, Belski, Dubravko Lakos, Bujas Organizations: Service, UBS, BMO, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, Reserve

☆ Chipmakers tumble as ASML forecast cut issues a growth warning to the sector
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Chip stocks tumbled Tuesday, with NVDA and AMD down 5% and ASML plunging 16%. The sector was also rattled by reports that the US is weighing a cap on chip exports. Other chip stocks followed, with NVDA dipping almost 5%, AMD falling 5.3%, and Broadcom tumbling 3.5% around midday Tuesday. Flows into AI stocks slowed over the summer as investors expressed worries about returns on huge spending on AI. AdvertisementReports that the US is weighing a cap on chip exports from American chipmakers only compounded the industry's tumultuous start to the week.

Persons: —, ASML, SMCI, Christophe Fouquet, Biden, Nvidia — Organizations: NVDA, AMD, Service, Semiconductor, Broadcom, Bloomberg, Investment, Nvidia Locations: Dutch, €, American, East, Africa, Asia, China

☆ Stocks beat bonds as risk-on returns amid Fed easing and strong economic data, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should favor stocks over bonds as the economy supports risk-on sentiment, Goldman analysts say. The US economy is in a pro-risk, late-cycle environment due to Fed easing and a strong economy. AdvertisementRisk-on sentiment is back after a brief flight to safety over the summer, and that should support stocks over bonds in the coming months, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note Tuesday. AdvertisementFed cutting cycles in general tend to support risky assets as long as the economy avoids a recession, the analysts say. This risk-on, late-cycle backdrop means stocks will benefit from higher earnings growth and valuations as bonds face downside risks, the analysts say.

Persons: Goldman, —, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service Locations: China

☆ Fed Governor Waller says 'more caution' needed on rate cuts after data showing a hot economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fed Governor Christopher Waller says recent data shows the Fed should ease more cautiously. The Fed cut rates by a50-basis points last month and is expected to make a smaller cut next month. AdvertisementWaller said recent data, though, shows an economy that's still hot. He pointed to recent data on employment, inflation, income and gross domestic product. Waller said he will be watching closely for any further data that shows the Fed should ease less aggressively.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, —, Waller's Organizations: Service, Stanford University, Fed

☆ Why small stocks are 'ripe' for gains ahead of the November election, according to Cantor Fitzgerald
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Small stocks historically see big upward moves near presidential elections, Cantor Fitzgerald says. AdvertisementSmall-cap stocks are set for a catch-up amid a confluence of perfectly aligned factors ahead of the presidential election, Cantor Fitzgerald says. Johnston also forecasts increasingly higher odds of a Trump win, which would benefit small stocks even more. Those factors would increase investors' confidence and encourage more rotation into riskier, underperforming small stocks. AdvertisementJohnston's comments come as others have warned of uncertainty looming over markets ahead of the upcoming presidential election.

Persons: Cantor Fitzgerald, —, Russell, Donald Trump, Stocks, Eric Johnston, Johnston, Kamala Harris, Harris, Trump Organizations: Trump, Service, Democratic Locations: The Russell, RealClearPolitics, China

☆ Goldman Sachs raises China growth outlook on optimism over Beijing's fresh push to revive struggling economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Goldman Sachs analysts upgraded their growth forecast for China from 4.7% to 4.9% for this year. AdvertisementChina may not fall too short of its growth targets this year after all, Goldman Sachs analysts said. The analysts also upgraded their growth forecast for next year, from 4.3% to 4.7%. Advertisement"The '3D' challenges - deteriorating demographics, a multi-year debt deleveraging trend, and the global supply chain de-risking push are unlikely to be reversed by the latest round of policy easing," they added. China's recent stimulus pushes have aimed to prop up its weak economy, which has been plagued by a struggling property sector and weak domestic demand.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Goldman, China's Organizations: Service, Ministry of Finance, National Development, Reform Locations: China, Beijing

☆ Here's how natural disasters are shaping the buy-versus-rent decision in vulnerable states like Florida
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-13 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Owning a home in high-climate risk states like Florida is becoming tougher amid rising costs. Experts say the next few years will be crucial for housing policy in the wake of severe climate disasters. On the one hand, buyers are facing rising costs as insurance premiums skyrocket. Still, a big advantage to owning a home is the ability to lock in housing costs. That's especially true after climate disasters, according to one study that looked at rent prices following hurricanes in US coastal states.

Persons: Hurricane Milton, homebuyers, Chen Zhao, Jung Hyun Choi, Choi, Katrina, Zhao Organizations: Service, Institute's, Finance Policy Center Locations: Florida, Hurricane, Texas, Georgia, Louisiana, it's

☆ These stocks are best-positioned to gain in the next wave of AI investment, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

In the next wave of investment, Goldman Sachs analysts recommend "platform" stocks like Microsoft and Datadog. In the next round of AI investment, Goldman Sachs analysts say investors should look past the obvious picks—Nvidia and AI infrastructure companies—and toward a select set of platforms set to build out a direct application of AI. "Our equity analysts believe 'platform' stocks, including databases and development tools, are set to be the primary beneficiaries of the next wave of generative AI investments. AdvertisementThe analysts name Microsoft, DataDog, MongoDB, Elastic, and Snowflake as the best-positioned platform stocks as they roll out AI-integrated applications. AdvertisementThe analysts' comments come after flows into AI stocks dwindled over the summer as traders expressed worries over returns on big AI spending.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, — Organizations: Microsoft, Service, Nvidia, Federal Reserve Locations: Snowflake

☆ Stock market today: Indexes close lower after CPI shows sticky inflation in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Indexes slipped Thursday as investors priced in a higher-than-expected inflation reading. The data raises the possibility of a "no landing" scenario for the US economy. AdvertisementStocks fell on Thursday from records reached in the previous session, as traders took in a sticky inflation reading for September. September consumer price index data released on Thursday showed inflation rose 2.4% year-over-year, slightly above consensus forecasts of a 2.3% rise. AdvertisementThe core CPI reading, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, was up 3.3% year-over-year and just above forecasts of 3.2%.

Persons: —, Stocks, Hurricane Milton, Jamie Dimon, Buffett Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, CPI, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Investors, Labor Department, Here's, Insurance Locations: Hurricane

☆ Here's the next data point to watch as Wall Street eyes a 'no landing' scenario for the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A big jump in retail spending would be the next data point indicating a "no landing" of the economy. A no-landing scenario occurs when strong economic growth fuels inflation and hinders rate cuts. Bank of America analysts expect September retail sales data, set for release on October 17, to show a 0.8% surge. "Monthly retail sales data can be volatile. If retail sales accelerate considerably, in our view, the narrative may shift further toward 'no landing' or even re-acceleration," they said.

Persons: —, Helene Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Bank, America

☆ US sting operation catches crypto firms 'wash trading' to boost token values
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A tip from the SEC led federal prosecutors to set up a fake company to bust crypto market manipulators. The firms are charged with "wash trading," artificially increasing trade volume to boost token prices. The case marks the first such charges against crypto firms, prosecutors say. The charges are the first in the crypto industry related to "wash trading." The sting charged ZM Quant, CLS Global, and MyTrade with wash trading related to their communications with NexFundAI.

Persons: —, Jodi Cohen, cryptocurrency –, Joshua Levy Organizations: SEC, Service, Securities and Exchange Commission, FBI, CLS Global, NexFundAI, Boston, United Locations: Boston, Saitama

☆ Stock market today: Indexes decline after inflation comes in hotter than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Indexes dipped Thursday as investors took in hotter-than-expected inflation data. Traders see the latest data solidifying odds of a 25 basis point rate cut next month. AdvertisementUS stocks edged lower on Thursday as investors took in slightly hotter-than-expected inflation data after last week's blockbuster jobs report. The core CPI reading, which excludes food and energy costs, came in at 3.3% year-over-year, slightly above forecasts of 3.2% and 0.3% higher than the August reading. JPMorgan's top strategist, one of Wall Street's biggest bears, is turning upbeat on the stock market for the first time in two years.

Persons: —, Milton, Bill Gross Organizations: Traders, Service, CPI, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Labor Department, FEMA, Hurricanes Locations: Here's

☆ A new HBO documentary suggests bitcoin's creator is Canadian programmer Peter Todd
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A new HBO documentary says that Canadian programmer Peter Todd is the creator of bitcoin. It points to several things to back the claim, but Todd denies he is the token's creator. The true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, who wrote the bitcoin white paper, has been hotly debated. AdvertisementA new HBO documentary suggests the identity of bitcoin's inventor is a Canadian programmer named Peter Todd. "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery," which premiered on HBO on Tuesday, names Todd as bitcoin's pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.

Persons: Peter Todd, Todd, Satoshi Nakamoto, —, Len Sassaman, Nick Szabo, Adam Back, Cullen Hoback, Nakamoto, Nakamoto's, Hoback, I'm Satoshi, I'm Craig Wright, Satoshi, bettors Organizations: HBO, Service, Nakamoto, New York Times, Polymarket Locations: Canadian

☆ Trump win would hammer growth and send inflation soaring in Europe, ECB official says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A Trump win would pose risks to economic growth and inflation in Europe, ECB member Joachim Nagel says. Officials in Europe, for their part, are warily eyeing what a Donald Trump win would mean. Nagel's comments come just weeks before the US presidential election and follow previous warnings from ECB members about the potential impact of a Trump win. AdvertisementBack in January, ECB president Christine Lagarde said a Trump win is "clearly a threat" to Europe considering the policies he implemented during his first term in office. She pointed to Trump's tariffs, commitment to NATO, and climate change policies, which she said were misaligned with European interests.

Persons: Joachim Nagel, Nagel, —, Donald Trump, Trump, he'd, " Nagel, there's, it's, Harris, Kamala Harris, Christine Lagarde Organizations: Trump, Service, European Central Bank Governing, Tuesday, Bloomberg, Federal, NATO Locations: Europe, Germany, Berlin, Italy, EU

☆ The bar for earnings is low, and stocks should rise as long companies are feeling upbeat about lower rates, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

As long as companies report that they're feeling good about lower interest rates, stocks should rise. That's according to Bank of America, which notes that apart from that dynamic, the bar for third-quarter earnings set by Wall Street is pretty low. The analysts expect 2% earnings growth, below consensus estimates of 4% and second-quarter earnings growth of 11%. As long as companies have managed through macro headwinds and see early signs of improvement from lower rates, stocks should get rewarded," the analysts said in a Tuesday note. The analysts recommend watching those sectors for early signs of improvement from lower rates ahead of earnings.

Persons: — Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Wall, Federal Reserve, Manufacturing

☆ Meme coins tied to the identity of bitcoin's inventor have rallied ahead of a new documentary that could reveal their identity
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The jump in bitcoin creator-themed tokens comes ahead of a new HBO documentary about bitcoin. Crypto watchers believe the film will reveal the true name of bitcoin's pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Coins like LEN, SASHA, and ODIN reference Len Sassaman, an American programmer long suspected of being bitcoin's creator. SZABO, meanwhile, a coin referencing computer scientist Nick Szabo, is up 377%. AdvertisementIn recent days, participants have increasingly bet in favor of Nick Szabo, a computer scientist who published research on bitcoin's precursor "bit gold."

Persons: Satoshi Nakamoto, —, LEN, SASHA, ODIN, Len Sassaman, SASHA —, SZABO, Nick Szabo, ADAM, Adam Back, Nakamoto, Satoshi Nakamotor, Sassaman, Meredith Patterson, Cullen, Szabo Organizations: HBO, Service, CoinMarketCap Locations: American, bettors

☆ China chip stocks are soaring as excitement grows for another round of stimulus from Beijing
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Chinese chip stocks gained $13 billion on Monday, led by a 22% rise in shares of SMIC. The gains come as traders expect Beijing to extend stimulus support to the semiconductor industry. AdvertisementChinese chip stocks soared Monday, fueled by hopes that Beijing's next round of stimulus will boost the country's semiconductor industry. The new round of stimulus could include support for its chip companies. China first announced its stimulus measures last month, pledging to rescue the economy from a struggling property sector and weak domestic demand.

Persons: —, Beijing's Organizations: Service, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, CSI Locations: SMIC, Beijing, China, Hong Kong

☆ Brace for stock-market volatility this week if inflation comes in hot after the September jobs report, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A blockbuster jobs report raises the stakes for upcoming inflation data, BofA analysts say. AdvertisementThe September jobs report was good news, but it gives investors more reason to brace for the next inflation reading, Bank of America analysts say. Economists forecast the CPI report will show inflation continued to cool last month, rising 2.3% year-over-year compared to 2.5% in August. AdvertisementHowever, with the blockbuster September jobs report, some economists say inflation is still a concern. The September jobs report blew past forecasts, with 254,000 nonfarm payrolls added compared to expectations of 150,000.

Persons: —, Brian Rose Organizations: Service, Bank of America, CPI, Fed, UBS

☆ 'I am getting increasingly queasy': JPMorgan's strategy chief on why investors should dial back risk amid market distortions
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Yet, as markets eye a soft landing, potential shocks pose a higher risk to investors, David Kelly says. The firm's chief global strategist says the promise of a soft landing has encouraged Americans to pour into riskier assets at the exact time they shouldn't be. "I will say that although I think this is positive for the equity market, I am getting increasingly queasy about the fact that the equity market keeps on pricing in a soft landing," Kelly told Business Insider. He said that as the market prices in a soft landing, valuations rise, which means any shock to the market could send asset prices tumbling. According to Fed data, the total aggregate wealth of American households grew by about $50 trillion in the last five years.

Persons: David Kelly, —, Kelly, shouldn't, you've, payrolls Organizations: Service, Asset, Business, Federal

☆ Medicare shake-up sends Humana stock down 23% in a week for its worst drop since 2009
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Humana's stock is down 23% in its worst weekly drop since 2020 and biggest two-day decline since 2009. The drop comes as Medicare downgraded ratings on some of Humana's health insurance plans. The health insurer's shares are down 23% since the start of the week, marking its biggest weekly drop since 2020 and its biggest two-day decline in 15 years. Over those days, the stock declined 22%, the biggest two-day drop since the financial crisis in 2009. They said Medicare Advantage plans could see further pressure if Democrats win in the upcoming elections, which would hinder Humana's recovery.

Persons: —, It's, AJ Rice, Humana's downgrades Organizations: Service, Humana, UBS, Bank of America

☆ Investing giants want to offer retail traders access to a booming sector of financial markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

It would give retail investors access to a $1.7 trillion market. It could be tricky, as private credit tends to be illiquid while ETF investors need high liquidity. According to The Wall Street Journal, some of the biggest private equity and investment management giants want to offer retail investors access to exchange-traded funds backed by private credit. The race to launch private credit ETFs has heated up in recent months. Last month, State Street proposed a private debt ETF to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Persons: —, Anna Paglia, Paglia, Eric Mogelof Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Apollo Global Management, BlackRock, Capital Group, KKR, Securities and Exchange Commission, Street's

☆ Stock market today: Indexes fall, oil surges on Middle East turmoil ahead of jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Traders are watching rising risks to oil supplies as tensions in the Middle East escalate. US oil spiked 5.5% to $73.98 a barrel and Brent prices rose more than 5% to trade at $77.86. If the conflict destroys Iran's oil infrastructure, oil prices could surge 161% to over $200 a barrel, according to SEB's chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop. AdvertisementInvestors are eagerly awaiting the September jobs report, due Friday, for further signs of labor market health. Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of a smaller 25 basis point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Friday's nonfarm, Biden, —, Joe Biden, retaliating, Biden's, Brent, Bjarne Schieldrop, Economists, Jensen Huang, Blackwell Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Israel, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Costco Locations: Israel, Iran

☆ Americans are able to bet on the US elections again after a legal fight
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Americans can bet on the outcome of US elections following a legal fight. Last month, Kalshi briefly listed bets on congressional election outcomes before the CFTC shut them down. On Wednesday, prediction market Kalshi got the go-ahead to take bets on congressional elections after a months-long legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That makes it one of the only options for Americans to bet on election outcomes, and the only legal one for Americans to wager large amounts of money. The court's decision comes just five weeks before the elections, and follows years of legal battles between prediction markets and the CFTC.

Persons: Kalshi, —, CoinDesk, Harry Crane Organizations: CFTC, Service, Futures Trading Commission, Federal, Kalshi, Senate, Rutgers University Locations: New York, New Zealand

☆ Stock markets today: Indexes slip as jobless claims rise ahead of highly anticipated jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Indexes edged lower Thursday as investors assessed jobless claims and geopolitical tensions. On Friday, investors will get a fresh labor market update from the September nonfarm payrolls report. AdvertisementUS stocks inched lower on Thursday, fueled by an uptick in jobless claims ahead of a key jobs report and continued tensions in the Middle East. Analysts say the report will likely have a big influence on both markets and the Fed in the coming weeks. Advertisement"We think a soft employment report is likely to generate a larger market response vs a strong labor report," Bank of America analysts said in a Wednesday report.

Persons: —, Israel Organizations: Service, Labor Department, Israel, Federal, Bank of America, Trump, RBC Locations: Iran

☆ These 2 sectors of the stock market are poised to benefit most if Trump wins in November, RBC says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A Trump win would benefit energy and financial stocks the most, RBC analysts say. The analysts see a Trump win as overall bullish for equities, with a Harris win more bearish. AdvertisementA Donald Trump win in November could be the best outcome for stocks, and two sectors in particular would benefit the most, according to RBC Capital Markets. Those sectors would see the most upside from a Trump win, especially if Republicans take both the White House and Congress, the analysts say. EnergyThe analysts say Trump's policies favor domestic fossil fuel production, since they aim to reduce regulatory requirements, which would lower costs.

Persons: Harris, —, Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Financials, Kamala Harris, Trump, fracking, Janet Yellen Organizations: Trump, RBC, Service, RBC Capital Markets, White House, Congress, Energy, Republican, Democratic, Biden

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