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June 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The Bank of Japan, the most dovish major central bank in the world, announces its latest policy decision on Friday, with markets highly sensitive to signs of when and to what degree it will ditch its super-loose policy. The BOJ follows surprisingly aggressive interest rate increases and guidance recently from policymakers in Canada and Australia, and this week's hawkish signals from the European Central Bank and, to a lesser extent, the U.S. Federal Reserve. The BOJ remains the outlier among major central banks, promising to maintain its loose policy until it is sure inflation meets the 2% target. If Japanese assets are any indication, investors expect Ueda and his colleagues to err on the dovish side.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, Fed's Bullard, Waller, Barkin Organizations: The Bank of Japan, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of America, ECB, Nikkei, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Canada, Australia, Japan

☆ Japan will stop yen decline beyond USD/JPY 145, most economists say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Satoshi Sugiyama | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, June 15 (Reuters) - Japan's government and central bank will act to stop the yen's decline if it depreciates to the 145 per U.S. dollar level, more than half of economists polled by Reuters said. Fifteen of 28 economists (54%) said the government and the BOJ will take steps such as issuing a warning or intervening into the currency market once the yen weakens beyond 145 per greenback, the June 8-13 poll found. In a separate question on the weak yen's impact on BOJ policy, nine economists (31%) said the central bank's decisions could be swayed by a yen depreciation beyond 145 per dollar. In the poll, all but one - JP Morgan - out of 28 economists corroborated the view, citing an improved bond market functionality and Governor Kazuo Ueda's accommodative remarks so far. BOJ's Ueda has said an end to easy policy would depend on the economy achieving 2% inflation coupled with pay growth.

Persons: Harumi Taguchi, Morgan, Kazuo Ueda's accommodative, Hiroshi Watanabe, BOJ's Ueda, Satoshi Sugiyama, Kantaro Komiya, Veronica Khongwir, Anant Chandak, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: Reuters, Bank of Japan, P, Financial Services Agency, Sony Financial Group, Thomson Locations: TOKYO

☆ Factbox: BOJ's next steps and triggers for policy shift
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

While Ueda has stressed the BOJ will be in no rush to dial back stimulus, the central bank is dropping clues on possible triggers of a policy shift. ABANDON OR TWEAK YIELD TARGETIn ending YCC, the first step will be to abandon or modify the 10-year yield target. One idea would be to widen the band around the yield target, now set at 50 basis points on either side. TWEAKING FORWARD GUIDANCEBefore tweaking the yield cap, the BOJ could drop more hints of a policy shift such as by modifying forward guidance. Big upward revisions to its inflation forecasts at a July quarterly review would signal the BOJ's conviction that conditions for a policy shift are falling into place.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, YCC, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan

☆ 'Foreign investors are back': Japan stocks surge to their highest since 1990
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The firm noted that foreign investors bought a net 2.1 trillion yen ($15.4 billion) worth of Japanese stocks in April – adding that Japan's corporate sector remains the largest net buyer of Japanese stocks, with a volume of 1.1 trillion yen year-to-date. Central bank focusSociete Generale strategists added that their overweight position on Japanese equities remains unchanged. The Japanese yen traded at slightly weaker levels to 136.43 against the greenback on Wednesday. "Keep an overweight position on Japan equities, unhedged, and biased to banks, financials, and value," they wrote. "Specifically, we note the solid fundamentals compared with stocks on overseas markets, and we also think that expectations for structural changes/reforms could push Japanese equities up even further," wrote Japan equity strategist Kazunori Tatebe.

A flood of inflation data releases were also mixed. The International Monetary Fund called on the ECB on Friday to keep raising interest rates until the middle of 2024 to help bring down high inflation. Versus the yen , the euro briefly rose to its highest level since December 2014 at 149.50. It was last up 1.2% at 149.35 yen after the BOJ left its ultra-easy monetary policy unchanged even as it scrapped a pledge to keep interest rates low. However, the central bank removed a pledge to keep interest rates at "current or lower levels" and said it would "conduct a broad-perspective review of monetary policy".

☆ New BOJ chief's first task may be to tweak forward guidance
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A shift to a less dovish bias could signal a near-term tweak to YCC, analysts say. GUIDANCE QUESTIONSUeda left few clues on how soon the guidance could change, telling an inaugural news conference on April 10 that the board will "discuss all options at each of our policy meetings." Under current projections made in January, the BOJ expects core consumer inflation to hit 1.6% this year and 1.8% in fiscal 2024. Many analysts expect the BOJ to project inflation to hover near, but stay slightly below, the bank's 2% target for both fiscal 2024 and 2025. Ueda is expected to hold a news conference after the policy meeting on Friday to explain the bank's decision.

☆ Bank of Japan's new chief didn't offer a 'tidbit' that moved markets, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of Japan's new chief didn't offer a 'tidbit' that moved markets, analyst saysMichael Makdad of Morningstar says bank stocks did not move after Kazuo Ueda's first press conference as governor of the Bank of Japan as there was no new information.

☆ Factbox: Possible next steps for BOJ policy under new governor
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

ABANDON YIELD TARGETA leadership transition gives the new governor a chance to overhaul his predecessor's policy. Ueda has said YCC was unsuited for minor fine-tuning, suggesting that he could abandon the 10-year yield cap and shift to a policy solely targeting short-term interest rates. One idea would be to widen the band set around the 10-year yield target, now set at 50 basis points on either side. When the BOJ shifted to YCC from a policy targeting the pace of money printing, it used a thorough analysis of its policy framework to justify the shift. Any such move would likely be accompanied by, or come well after, the end of the 10-year yield target.

SummarySummary Companies C.banks responded to risk-aversive moves in markets - MatsunoJapan's banking system stable as a whole - MatsunoFinmin says will keep assessing impact of Credit Suisse buyoutMarket rout may complicate BOJ's exit path from easy policyTOKYO, March 20 (Reuters) - Japan's top government spokesperson said on Monday the banking system was stable, seeking to reassure markets the country won't see a contagion from U.S. and European banking sector woes. "Each country promptly ramped up efforts as risk-aversive moves were seen in financial markets," Matsuno told a regular news conference. "Japan's financial system is stable as a whole," he said, adding that authorities were watching financial market moves "with a strong sense of alarm". For now, financial authorities in Tokyo see the most likely risk for Japan coming from a deterioration in the U.S. economy that would hurt exports, rather than a direct bank contagion. "The failure of two U.S. banks spilled over to a Swiss bank in a seemingly unrelated way," one official said.

"Each country promptly ramped up efforts as risk-aversive moves were seen in financial markets," Matsuno told a regular news conference. "Japan's financial system is stable as a whole," he said, adding that authorities were watching financial market moves "with a strong sense of alarm". The remarks came after Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters on Monday the government would continue to "carefully assess" how a weekend rescue deal for Credit Suisse Group would affect Japan's financial sector. For now, financial authorities in Tokyo see the most likely risk for Japan coming from a deterioration in the U.S. economy that would hurt exports, rather than a direct bank contagion. "The failure of two U.S. banks spilled over to a Swiss bank in a seemingly unrelated way," one official said.

☆ Dollar retreats as investors come to terms with higher-for-longer U.S. rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nearly all Fed policymakers favoured a scale down in the pace of interest rate hikes at the U.S. central bank's last policy meeting, minutes from the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 FOMC meeting showed on Wednesday. However, they also indicated curbing unacceptably high inflation would be the "key factor" in how much further rates need to rise. "Many central banks around the world ... are trying to put an emphasis in their determination to combat inflation expectations," said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC. The kiwi continued to draw some support from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish rate rise on Wednesday, after the central bank signalled further tightening ahead to tame high inflation. "The easy part of the short USD trade is over," said Galvin Chia, emerging markets strategist at NatWest Markets.

☆ Dollar firms as investors brace for higher-for-longer rates scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

However, they also indicated curbing unacceptably high inflation would be the "key factor" in how much further rates need to rise. The dollar paused its ascent on Thursday after gaining broadly on the back of the release. "The meeting minutes were pretty much within expectations ... the markets are now pricing for higher-for-longer rates," said Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets. "The resilience (of the U.S. economy) prompts the Fed to keep raising interest rates ... pushing up the U.S. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index stood at 104.50, and was attempting to break a more than one-month peak of 104.67 hit last week.

☆ Asian Shares track Wall Street's inflation optimism, yen recoups losses
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 1.2%, while the Nasdaq (.IXIC) rallied 1.5% and Dow Jones (.DJI) was up 1.1%. Treasuries rallied a little, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bonds easing 2 basis points to 3.6940%. The two-year bond yields also eased from their three-month highs to hover at 4.5090%, compared with the previous close of 4.5340%. It weakened 0.2% against the Japanese yen to 132.13 yen, after gaining 0.8% the previous day. On Tuesday, the Japanese government is expected to name academic Kazuo Ueda as its pick to become next central bank governor.

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