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However, most Crop Watch fields no longer benefit from rain as far as yield is concerned. Most Crop Watch producers have either not yet started corn or bean harvesting or are in the beginning stages. About 30% of the Crop Watch corn in southeast Illinois was completed on Sunday, and the early results would suggest downside to yield expectations rather than upside. Average Crop Watch soybean yield rose slightly to 3.59 from 3.57 a week earlier after a quarter-point bump in North Dakota. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: corn's, Karen Braun, David Evans Organizations: Crop, Crop Watch, U.S, Watch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, Ohio, North Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

In the week ended Sept. 12, money managers expanded their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 134,909 contracts from 93,913 a week earlier. That marked funds’ most bearish corn stance since mid-August 2020, when CBOT corn was trading below $3.50 per bushel. Most-active corn futures have traded below $5 since Aug. 21, and they fell 2% in the week ended Sept. 12. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCorn dropped to $4.73-1/2 per bushel on Sept. 12, tying mid-August for the lowest price since December 2020. Most-active CBOT wheat shed 2% in the week ended Sept. 12, dropping to the lowest price since December 2020.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Corn, Bean, soyoil, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: Carbon Solutions, REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Department, Agriculture, Futures, Funds, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Defiance, Shelby County , Iowa, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, U.S, soymeal, Ukraine, Russia

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures this week hit their lowest levels in almost three years, yet relative to demand, exportable global wheat supplies are expected to approach historic minimums by mid-2024. Russia’s early 2022 invasion of Ukraine sent wheat prices to new highs as the two countries account for nearly 30% of global exports. Wheat stocks-to-use in major global exportersThe distinction between global stocks and stocks among exporting countries is important because top wheat grower China carries about half the world’s supply but trades a relatively small amount. A 13.5% stocks-to-use is the second lowest on record behind 13.1% in 2007-08, another extremely volatile time for wheat prices. A year ago, exportable wheat stocks-to-use were predicted to reach 15-year lows by mid-2023, and two years ago, mid-2022 was expected to feature all-time lows.

Persons: Karen Braun Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, European Union, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Ukraine, China, Argentina, Australia, Canada, UKRAINE, Russia, Black

Versus the June survey, a corn harvested area increase of 774,000 acres in the fall is the largest ever back to at least the mid-1990s. Only 2012's increase of 890,000 acres (0.9%) was larger, though final corn acres usually come in lower than in June (15 of last 20 years). USDA was not the only entity too low on U.S. corn acres this year. The March planting survey came in more than a million acres above the trade estimate, then June corn acres blew out the highest trade guess by more than a million acres, topping the average guess by more than 2 million acres. That is the opposite of what happened in 2021, the last time USDA’s fall area review substantially boosted corn acres.

Persons: NASS, Karen Braun, Sam Holmes Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA's Farm Service Agency, Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA, Analysts, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S

Final Crop Watch soy yield across the Iowa and Illinois locations averaged 4.625 in 2021 and 4.375 in 2022. CORNThe 11-field, average Crop Watch corn yield fell to a season-low of 3.61 from 3.7 last week, an equal decline as in the previous two weeks. Crop Watch corn yield was 3.68 this week last year and 3.82 in 2021. Six of the 11 Crop Watch corn fields carry a yield score of 4 or better with a high of 4.5 in Ohio. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Dane Rhys Acquire, Karen Braun, Aurora Ellis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Crop Watch, Crop, Iowa, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Deerfield , Ohio, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Iowa, Illinois, Corn, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Ohio . North Dakota , Nebraska, Ohio . Minnesota, North Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Analysts' corn yields span from 171.5 to 175 bpa, meaning all 18 analysts polled by Reuters expect a lower number than in August. Since 2004, corn yield landed outside the range of trade estimates only twice in September: 2018 and 2005. Those increases would account for less than 0.2% of each crop's total harvested area, seen at 86.4 million acres for corn and 82.8 million acres for soybeans. Final harvested corn acres have been lower than in August in eight of the last 10 years. Since the mid-1990s, the largest increase in harvested corn area from August to final was 1.1 million acres (1.3%) in 2007.

Persons: Daniel Acker, Karen Braun, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, USDA's Farm Service Agency, USDA, Thomson Locations: Tiskilwa , Illinois, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois

None of the 22 Crop Watch corn and soybean fields received rain last week, the first such instance since the 22-field format began in 2021. Many of the Crop Watch producers describe this year’s finishing weather as the worst they can remember. The average Crop Watch corn yield also hit a season low this week, falling to 3.7 from 3.8 a week earlier. Eastern Iowa corn was reduced by half a point while western Iowa and Indiana corn were each down by a quarter of a point. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Daniel Acker, Karen Braun, David Goodman Organizations: Ruff, REUTERS, Rights, Crop, Crop Watch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Leonore , Illinois, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Kansas, South Dakota, Iowa, Indiana, Eastern Iowa, North Dakota, Corn, Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana , South Dakota, Both Minnesota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Speculators responded by boosting their bullish Chicago soybean bets, which they have held for more than three years, and easing bearishness in corn futures. Most-active CBOT corn futures rose 1.5% during the period but stayed below $5 per bushel throughout. Last week’s rise in oilseed optimism extended to the soy products, as CBOT soybean meal futures increased more than 4% and soybean oil added 2.5%. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsMost-active CBOT wheat futures lost more than 4% in the week ended Aug. 29. Corn futures dropped 1.1% over the last three sessions, soybeans lost 1.7%, soymeal lost 3% and soyoil was mostly unchanged.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, soymeal, soyoil, Karen Braun, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Funds, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Dixon , Nebraska, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, Mato Grosso

That price difference in 2016 arguably led to the overproduction of U.S. soybeans in the following two years, moderating soybean futures. The bean-corn ratio was also elevated in late 2013, a year which has been frequently compared with 2023, particularly for corn futures. Corn futures were declining at a faster rate than soybeans as U.S. corn supplies recovered significantly from the 2012 drought. 2024 ON HORIZONNext year’s December corn and November soybean futures already indicate heavier U.S. soybean acres for 2024 after declining 4.5% in 2023, hitting a three-year low. Prices were low by early 2015, causing both U.S. corn and soybean acres to contract that year.

Persons: Karen Braun Organizations: U.S ., Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, U.S, China, Brazil, United States

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour has been following the same routes in seven major U.S. corn and soybean producing states for more than three decades. Pro Farmer on Friday pegged U.S. corn yield at 172 bushels per acre, below USDA’s 175.1 bpa and the year-ago 173.3. The advisory firm placed soybean yield at 49.7 bpa, below USDA’s 50.9 but above the 2022 yield of 49.5. For the past four years, Pro Farmer’s corn yield has correctly informed on the direction of USDA’s corn yield from August to September, but it had the wrong lean in the two prior years (2017 and 2018). For example, Pro Farmer’s 2022 corn yield suggested USDA’s September 2022 forecast should come in below that of August, and it did.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Farmer, Pro Farmer, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Carbon Solutions, REUTERS, Rights, Farmer, U.S . Department, Scouts, Iowa, USDA, Versus, Pro, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Defiance, Shelby County , Iowa, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, U.S

Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsAn increase in gross corn shorts was the dominant theme for a third consecutive week, though funds also cut longs in the latest two weeks. Most-active CBOT corn futures had dropped 4.7% in the week ended Aug. 15. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsOpen interest in CBOT corn and soybean futures and options has not fluctuated much in the last couple of months. But open interest in CBOT wheat futures and options has surged 29% over the last seven weeks, directionally seasonal but more than double the recent average rate during the period. Most-active corn futures on Wednesday had hit their lowest levels since Dec. 31, 2020, though soybeans on Friday traded to their highest levels since July 31.

Persons: Daniel Acker, bearishness, ’ bullish, Wheat, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tiskilwa , Illinois, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois

Romulo Lollato, a wheat agronomist for Kansas State University, examines wheat in a field on an annual crop tour, near Washington, Kansas, U.S., May 16, 2023. The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts 2023 corn yield in Illinois will be similar to that of 2021. USDA pegs Iowa’s corn yield just below 2021’s record, which also came amid dry conditions with well-timed showers. The tour uses a rough corn yield calculation, though it does not estimate soybean yield. Final soybean yield across the whole of Nebraska last year was the lowest since 2012 and 18% below the 2019-2021 average.

Persons: Romulo Lollato, Tom Polansek, Pro Farmer, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Kansas State University, REUTERS, Rights, Farmer, U.S . Department, Agriculture, Pro, Farm Journal Media, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , Kansas, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois , Iowa , Nebraska , Minnesota , Indiana , Ohio, South Dakota, Nebraska

USDA’s August corn and soy yields were the season’s highest in three of the last 10 years, most recently in 2022 for both. Looking toward final yields, the August corn yield has a slight tendency to be too high. Final corn yield was lower than in August in six of the last 10 years and in 10 of the last 15 years. The last two times final corn yield was above the August figure were in 2021 and 2017. USDA’s July corn and soy yields were 177.5 and 52 bpa, respectively, and both would be new records.

Persons: maximums, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Agriculture, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Midwest, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa

But the Crop Watch producers are concerned that this heat could challenge the corn in particular as it continues to fill out kernels. Indiana picked up 2.5 inches last week, western Illinois 2.45 inches, Nebraska up to 1.4 inches, and South Dakota got 1 inch. That ties two other weeks out of the last six for the highest Crop Watch soybean yield prospects of the season so far. Crop Watch producers continue rating both crop conditions and yield potential on 1-to-5 scales. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Crop Watch, Indiana, South Dakota, Southeastern, . Minnesota, Watch, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Gideon , Missouri, U.S, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Illinois, Nebraska, South, Southeastern Illinois, North Dakota, Ohio, ., Minnesota, South Dakota, government’s, North Dakota , Nebraska, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

In the week ended Aug. 8, money managers established a net short position in CBOT corn futures and options of 26,656 contracts compared with the previous week’s net long of 16,741 contracts. Money managers’ net long in CBOT soybean futures and options in late July was at a seven-year high for the date, but funds have sold aggressively in the last couple weeks. Most-active CBOT wheat drifted fractionally higher in the week ended Aug. 8. Wheat futures tumbled 4.5% in the last three sessions and finished at $6.26-3/4 per bushel, their lowest settle in two months. Funds reduced their net long in Minneapolis wheat to 4,497 contracts from 7,592 a week earlier, and they slashed their K.C.

Persons: Dane Rhys, Karen Braun, Chris Reese Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Funds, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ravenna , Ohio, U.S, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City

Debates over U.S. corn and soybean yield potential have persisted all summer following one of the driest Junes on record. Soy yield’s range of 1.5 bpa is a six-year low, well below the 2.9-bpa average, raising the risk of surprise. The trade nailed corn yield last August, coming within 0.3% of USDA’s figure, analysts’ best performance since 2001. I posted a Twitter poll midday on Thursday asking which yield surprise could be most likely on Friday: corn high, corn low, soybeans high or soybeans low. After about two hours and 555 votes, corn yield surprising high was the clear leader with 40% of the vote.

Persons: Karl Plume, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Spiritwood , North Dakota, U.S, Karl Plume NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago

Crop Watch corn and soybean fields were stressed last week under mostly dry conditions, but multiple rounds of rain over the weekend prevented yield expectations from declining. Last week’s Crop Watch rain totals were mostly concentrated over the weekend, though not all areas received the needed soaking. More than 3 inches of rain were observed in South Dakota, Nebraska, western Iowa and western Illinois, and Indiana picked up 2 inches. For example, the western Iowa producer this week described his beans as phenomenal while the Ohio field was said to look incredible. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County and the soybeans are in Stutsman County.

Persons: Dane Rhys, dews, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Crop, Crop Watch, Producers, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ravenna , Ohio, U.S, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Illinois, North Dakota, South Dakota , Nebraska, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio , Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota , Nebraska, government’s, Ohio, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

The "twisties," which cut short Biles' Tokyo run, were nowhere in sight on Saturday as the U.S. gymnast appeared back to her previous, top-notch form after taking more than a year off from the sport. During that break she prioritized her mental health, which became a major focus following her abrupt withdrawal from the team finals in Tokyo. "I’m still continuing to work on myself and go to therapy," Biles said, stressing the importance of a mental break. "I think I’m in better shape than I was in 2021," she said. "Who knows, I'm not going to think too far ahead," Biles said when asked about her plans.

Persons: HOFFMAN, Simone Biles, dazzled, Biles, I’m, I'm, Karen Braun, William Mallard Organizations: Tokyo Olympics, Thomson Locations: , Illinois, Chicago, Tokyo, U.S

But the four-times Olympic gold medallist cleared up any confusion this past weekend, proving she is as big a threat as ever one year out from the next Olympics. In addition to the all-around, Biles is favoured on the world stage for the vault and floor exercise golds due to her unmatched difficulty. The Russian women, competing as the Russian Olympic Committee due to a doping ban, captured team gold in Tokyo, leaving the United States to settle for silver. Contenders could include an unprecedented three Olympic all-around champions as 2012 winner Gabby Douglas, 27, recently announced plans to join Biles and 2020 champion Sunisa Lee, 20, on the road to Paris. The Paris squad will be selected at U.S. team trials at the end of June next year, a month before the 2024 Games.

Persons: Simone Biles’s, ”, Biles, Gabby Douglas, Sunisa Lee, ’, Clare Fallon Organizations: Tokyo Olympics, Paris, International Gymnastics Federation, Russian Olympic, Paris Games, Biles, U.S, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE, Ill, Chicago, Saturday’s, Tokyo, Rio de Janeiro, Russia, Belarusian, Ukraine, Russian, United States, U.S, Paris

But new-crop export demand has started to pick up and, despite expectations for supportive weather, U.S. soybean production is far from settled given this season’s hardships. Grains have performed significantly worse over that period with December corn and CBOT September wheat down 13% and 17%, respectively. That has lifted soybeans’ price advantage versus corn to the highest August levels in three years. CBOT November soybeans to December corn ratioIn the last decade, November soybeans strengthened throughout August only twice - in 2020 and 2013. U.S. soybean export demand for 2023-24 has recently been lackluster, but U.S. beans are now cheaper than Brazilian ones for shipment to China in the later months of 2023, which should support further U.S. sales.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Chicago, Midwest, Iowa, Illinois, China

Biles, a seven-time Olympic and 25-time world medallist, showed off routines on all four apparatus in podium training on Friday ahead of Saturday’s Core Hydration U.S. Classic in Hoffman Estates, Illinois. All is good.”The 2016 Olympic all-around champion took more than a year off training after the Tokyo Games, but her routines show no signs of a slowdown. “She looks amazing,” fellow Tokyo team mate and Tokyo Olympics all-around champion Sunisa Lee said of Biles after Friday’s training session. Biles is the most decorated gymnast at Saturday’s two-session competition, but the women’s line-up is stacked, sharing a combined 55 Olympic and world medals according to gymnastics podcast Gymcastic. Along with Biles and Lee, other notable competitors include 2020 Olympic floor exercise champion Jade Carey, 2020 Olympic team silver medallist Jordan Chiles, and Leanne Wong, 2021 world all-around runner-up.

Persons: HOFFMAN, Simone Biles, ”, Biles, “, Sunisa Lee, ” Biles, Cecile Landi, Laurent, Lee, Jade Carey, Jordan Chiles, Leanne Wong, Pritha Sarkar Organizations: Tokyo, Tokyo Games, Tokyo Olympics, U.S, National Team Camp, Thomson Locations: , Illinois, Chicago, Hoffman Estates , Illinois, Texas, Tokyo

That includes 2021, 2006 and 2005, where severe drought gripped 18-21% of U.S. corn in late July. U.S. corn in drought July 25This same week in 2006 featured the largest moderate drought expanse in the Corn Belt after 2023 at 46% coverage, followed by 38% in 2005 and 36% in 2021. But it is interesting that corn yields landed close to trend in those five years. Some 4% of spring wheat is in severe drought, the first trace of severe drought since April. North Dakota’s spring wheat yield reached a record 50 bpa in 2022 despite fears that delayed planting would be limiting.

Persons: North, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Drought Monitor, Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, North Dakota, North

Crop Watch corn and soybean fields took a relatively large hit over the last week amid hot, humid weather accompanied by scarce rainfall. SCORE REDUCTIONSThe 11-field, average Crop Watch corn condition fell to 3.95 from 4.16 last week, the largest weekly cut in eight weeks. Average Crop Watch corn yield potential fell to 3.84 from 4.02 last week, also slightly lower than at the same point in the last two years. Crop Watch producers have been rating crop conditions and yield potential on 1-to-5 scales. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Crop, Crop Watch, Watch, Illinois, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Indiana, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, North, South Dakota, Nebraska , Kansas, Illinois, Southeastern Illinois, North Dakota, Kansas, South Dakota , Nebraska, Minnesota , Nebraska, Nebraska . Western Illinois, Nebraska, government’s, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCBOT corn futures had risen almost 6% during the week, though CBOT wheat surged over 13%, including a limit-up move on July 24. Managed money net position in Chicago wheat futures and optionsGrain futures did not sustain their strength last week, and funds may have already abandoned bullish corn bets as of Friday’s close. Corn dropped over 6% in the last three sessions and commodity funds commodity funds were pegged as net sellers of 33,000 futures contracts. CBOT wheat futures still maintain some of their recent Ukraine war premium, having shed 7.4% between Wednesday and Friday. Funds were seen as sellers of 24,000 wheat futures during this period.

Persons: Corn, Karen Braun, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Funds, European Union, Sunday, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Ukrainian, Russian, Ukraine, European, U.S, China, Mexico . U.S, Brazil

Commodity markets closely follow the American (GFS) and the European (EC) weather models, and it is important to understand their variations, especially at this time of year. The four-times-daily GFS forecasts out 15 days while the twice-per-day EC evaluates a 10-day period. Both models’ precipitation output has deviated significantly enough from the actuals to warrant higher levels of uncertainty in precipitation forecasts versus temperature ones. Both the GFS and EC precipitation output for the first half of July was overly optimistic on precipitation, which has generally been the case for the past six months. Despite the GFS’s recent temperature reliability, it has more often leaned too cool versus too warm in the last couple of months.

Persons: Tuesday’s GFS, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: European, Midwest, EC, Crop Watch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Midwest, U.S

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