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Search resuls for: "Joseph LaVorgna"


9 mentions found


☆ Fed needs to see people coming into the labor force, says economist Betsey Stevenson
  + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed needs to see people coming into the labor force, says economist Betsey StevensonJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, and Betsey Stevenson, professor of economics at the University of Michigan, join CNBC's "Squawk Box" discuss Friday’s jobs report.
☆ One year after the first rate hike, the Fed stands at policy crossroads
  + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
"That being said, given the fact the Fed has tightened as aggressively as they have, the economy is still very good." But recent days have shown the Fed has another problem on its hands besides inflation. watch nowBecause prices fall when rates go up, the Fed hikes have cut into the market value of those fixed income holdings. Rate hike expected"If you're waiting for inflation to go back to 2% and that's what's caused you to raise rates, you're making a mistake," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. Since the rate increases started, depositors have pulled $464 billion from banks, according to Fed data.
☆ Markets may be taking the wrong read from January's shocking jobs report
  + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
"The resounding strength of January employment report does not change our view of the labor market. Significant imbalances remain in the labor market due to too much excess demand and limited labor market slack," added Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. That's because they see the jobs report gain of 517,000 as a potential impetus to push the Fed into more aggressive interest rate hikes. He thinks future months will show a slowing labor market that will force the Fed into halting its hikes. "From a data-dependency perspective, the strength of the labor market suggests there might be need to continue to raise interest rates."
☆ Some economists see a 'rolling recession' ahead. Here's what that means
  + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Termed "rolling recessions," the idea is that rather than contract broadly and all at once, the economy could see different sectors decline in succession, one after the other. I think we will see rolling recession in the future." Sonders is a proponent of the "rolling recession" theory and noted that stocks can perform well even in downturns. A traditional recession looms To be sure, there are detractors to the "rolling recession" theory. "Have we ever had a period where both housing and manufacturing were in recession at the same time and we didn't have a recession?"
☆ The worst of inflation is likely over, but the worst for the economy probably isn't
  + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
While the inflation rate is still extraordinarily high, there's widespread agreement that the peak has passed. In fact, the only sector where interest rate increases have seemed to hit so far has been housing. So with lots of policy tightening still in the pipeline, softer inflation's accompanying economic slowdown is yet to come. The Fed's critics worry that the rate increases may have gone too far and could be a severe weight on the economy once inflation wears off. However, following the CPI report traders priced in a lower "terminal rate," or end point for the Fed rate hikes.
☆ The Fed's path to a 'Goldilocks' economy just got a little more complicated
  + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Spencer Platt | Getty ImagesLittle effect from policy movesThe numbers would indicate that 3.75 percentage points worth of rate increases have so far had little impact on labor market conditions. Much of the Street analysis after the report was viewed through the prism of comments Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made Wednesday. Among them were supply chain issues, housing growth, and labor cost, particularly wages. "Wages are rising more than productivity, as labor supply continues to shrink. To restore labor demand and supply, monetary policy must become more restrictive and remain there for an extended period."
☆ Dollar slides, CPI data suggests Fed could slow pace of rate hikes
  + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
"Inflation is clearly moving in the right direction, and that keeps a more hawkish Fed at bay," he said. The spike higher in the yen versus the dollar stirred speculation the Bank of Japan intervened, which analysts doubted. Fed funds futures priced in a drop in expectations for the U.S. central bank's peak target rate, which fell below 5%. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate hike by the Fed instead of a 75-basis-point increase in December rose to 71.5%. CPI rose 7.7% in October on a year-over-year basis, down from 8.2% in the prior month, as headline inflation fell below 8% for the first time since February.
☆ Premarket stocks: Don't be fooled by a strong GDP report
  + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
That’s why it’s so surprising that the US economy is expected to show robust growth in Thursday’s third-quarter GDP report. Economists warn that the report could be a one-hit-wonder that overstates momentum in an economy that is actually slowing. “There is more braking power being inflicted on the US economy than will be at all apparent in the third-quarter GDP report,” wrote Kelly. Central bank officials are going to be looking at underlying metrics in the report, and will likely ignore headline numbers, said Patterson. The bottom line: The rejiggering of trade balances often falsely inflates economic growth calculations ahead of a recession.
☆ An often-overlooked economic measure is signaling serious trouble ahead
  + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
However, Fed officials are stressing that they're far from finished when it comes to raising rates. "When this basket is signaling the weakness that it's showing, what the Fed typically does is not raise rates. But in this case, it's not only raising rates aggressively, but with a commitment to continue raising rates aggressively." In addition to the typical headline metrics such as the consumer price index and the Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditures price index, the Cleveland Fed's "sticky price" CPI rose 8.5% on an annualized basis in September, up from 7.7% in August. The measure looks at items such as rent, the price of food away from home and recreation costs.
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