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☆ 'Buckle up': A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns stocks remain near their highest valuation levels in history — and that the market is ripe for steep and abrupt losses
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-21 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

High valuations, despite their little influence on short-term returns, often mean devastating outcomes for investors over a longer period. There's also what he calls "poor market internals," which he tracks through a proprietary measure that monitors the breadth of individual stock performance. Hussman FundsThe combination of poor internals and high valuations are why Hussman says losses could come out of nowhere, and quickly. "Historically, the combination of extreme valuations and unfavorable market action has created a 'trap door' situation for the market," Hussman said. Rather, the steepest market losses have generally emerged from that combination of market conditions, and these losses tend to emerge abruptly, without additional warning."

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Irving Fisher catastrophically, Here's, There's, they've, Buckle, Hussman bullish Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust

☆ Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman says the S&P 500 won't hit a new high for years – and house prices will probably fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The billionaire investor said he didn't expect the S&P 500 to hit a fresh high for a long time. Cooperman said a "rolling correction" was underway and house prices were likely to drop. AdvertisementAdvertisementLeon Cooperman said stocks were overpriced, and the S&P 500 wouldn't notch a fresh high for a very long time. AdvertisementAdvertisementA handful of Big Tech names, including Tesla, Nvidia, and Microsoft, have pulled the major indexes higher this year, but excluding the so-called Magnificent Seven, stocks are virtually flat. He said in February that the S&P 500 was likely to bottom around 3,100 points, or 35% below its January 2022 peak.

Persons: Leon Cooperman, Cooperman, —, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Goldman Sachs, Tesla Organizations: Service, Omega Advisors, Big Tech, Nvidia, Microsoft, Wall, Finance, Philanthropy Locations: Bronx

☆ The S&P 500 is in a historic bubble and could crash by 63%, markets guru John Hussman warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are in a historic bubble and could crash by over 60%, John Hussman says. The markets guru says the S&P 500 looks very expensive and is priced to yield negative returns. He cautioned that virtually every market cycle in history has ended with projected S&P 500 total returns returning to historical norms. Hussman noted the S&P 500 is priced today for a negative return over the next 10 to 12 years. The markets guru said stocks won't necessarily crash, but "when the bough breaks, my sense is that it may break abruptly."

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Jeremy Grantham, —, Buckle, GMO's Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Service, Investment, Federal

☆ A legendary economist who called the 2008 recession says another downturn is knocking on the door — and warns stocks will end up falling 40% by the end of this market cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Legendary economist Gary Shilling says the US economy is headed toward a recession — that is, if we're not already in one. "The Fed wants to make sure they've killed inflation," Shilling said. Shilling, who called the 2008 recession, pointed out that recessions sometimes don't start until the Fed has already begun to cut rates. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTrusted recession indicators are also signaling that a downturn is coming, Shilling said. The Conference BoardAs a result of the recession, Shilling expects stocks to fall significantly.

Persons: Gary Shilling, we're, It's, Shilling, Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, Louis, they're, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Conference, Societe Generale Locations: there's

☆ 'Far deeper market losses will emerge': A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns the S&P 500's losses are only just beginning as stock valuations remain near their 1929 and 2
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-09 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

John Hussman says stocks are due for substantial losses amid high valuations. Here's Hussman's favorite measure of valuation: total market cap of non-financial-sector stocks-to-total revenues of those stocks. Hussman FundsAnother valuation measure Hussman likes is the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. Hussman Funds"Current market conditions create what we continue to view as a 'trap door' situation for the equity market. Another reason Hussman's outlook is so dire is that stock valuations remain high relative to where risk-free Treasury yields are.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Here's, Warren Buffett Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Hussman, Fed, Treasury, America, Bank of America, Reserve

☆ Wall Street keeps booming, but not everyone's convinced the bull market will last. Here's 6 voices of doom and gloom on US equities.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Here's six bearish views on the sizzling rally in equities, from Warren Buffett to David Rosenberg. From Warren Buffett to David Rosenberg, there's a chorus of market commentators throwing cold water on the fiery stock rally. That's given investors even more incentive to pile into equities, adding fuel to the stock rally. Here's 6 bearish stock market calls amid the stock market's breathless climb. Yet too many signs point to a severe stock market crash.

Persons: Warren Buffett, David Rosenberg, it's, there's, Dow Jones, Oppenheimer, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Rosenberg, Tom Lee, Lee, Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Poor, John Hussman, Hussman, Danielle DiMartino Booth, We're, DiMartino Booth Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Buffett, Rosenberg Research, Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks face the same 3 negative conditions they did in November 2021— and warns the 25% drop that followed will prove to be a 'small o
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman warns that valuations, investor sentiment, and market technicals are poor right now. A recipe for stock market disasterOn valuations, Hussman likes to compare total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of non-financial stocks. His criteria for technical overextension include an S&P 500 14-day relative strength index above 70, at least a 4% rate-of-change for the S&P 500 in the last 14-day period, and the S&P 500 at least 4.5% above its 50-day average. The chart below shows advances and declines for the S&P 500 in the 40 trading sessions after these criteria have been met. Piper SandlerOutside of technicals, however, macroeconomic fundamentals will likely be a main driver of market returns in the months ahead.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, John Hussman —, —, there's, he's, they've, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler Organizations: Street, Reserve Locations: technicals

☆ The extreme bubble in stocks 'will end in tears' with the S&P 500 plunging 64%, a long-time bear who called the 2000, 2008 crashes has warned. Here are his 6 best quotes.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

John Hussman, an asset-bubble expert, forecasts the ongoing rally in US stocks will "end in tears." The S&P 500 risks a 64% collapse given extreme valuations and "unfavourable market internals," he said. "There is a particular 'setup" that we've historically found to be associated with abrupt 'air pockets' and 'free falls' in the S&P 500. It combines hostile conditions in all three features most central to our investment disciple: rich valuations, unfavourable market internals, and extreme overextension." "At present, the valuation extremes we observe imply that a -64% loss in the S&P 500 would be required to restore run-of-the-mill long term prospective returns.

Persons: John Hussman, I've Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Locations: Wall, Silicon, macrotrends.net

☆ The stock market's gains are almost entirely concentrated in the 'Magnificent 7' - and that could mean a crash is coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Have you heard of the Magnificent Seven? This handful of Big Tech stocks have accounted for nearly all the market's gains in 2023. The names that make up the so-called Magnificent Seven are now the seven biggest US-listed stocks. Are you buying or selling the Magnificent Seven? Strategists from Goldman Sachs made the case for names they think will be low in volatility and high in returns.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, It's, you'll, let's, Tesla, there's, Minerva, Kathleen Brooks, John Hussman, Hussman, ANGELA WEISS, Goldman Sachs, Russell, Xi Jinping, Everyone's, Cleo Capital's Sarah Kunst, Phil Rosen, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Twitter, LinkedIn, Lionsgate, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft, Big Tech, Apple, Hussman Investment Trust, Getty, PLC, Costco Locations: New York, London

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks are set to suffer 'profound' losses as valuations remain at historic extremes — and dismisses the current rally as a 'narrow an
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

It also doesn't offer a fair characterization of the entire S&P 500's performance. Hussman's preferred valuation measure is total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of non-financial stocks. According to Bank of America, 80% of the S&P 500's returns over a 10-year period can be attributed to valuations. The red line in the chart below shows the gauge, while the blue is the S&P 500's price action. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, hasn't, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, David Rosenberg, Solita, 18.5x, it's, Jeremy Grantham, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, UBS, University of Pennsylvania, Housing

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns the S&P 500's 17% surge since October is a bear market rally — and that stocks are ripe for a decline of up to 60%
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Since October 2022, the S&P 500 is up 17% following a 25% decline as the Fed embarked on its rate-hiking cycle. The median S&P 500 price target for the end of the year is 4,000. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 1.1% over the past year.

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market warns an impending credit crunch and recession will sink stocks by 45% as valuations remain higher than dot-com bubble levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Indicators like initial and continuing unemployment claims and loan demand show weakness. A recession paired with high valuations spells trouble for stocks, he said. For example, the number of initial unemployment claims is starting to jump at a recessionary pace, Wolfenbarger said. The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims has risen 29% over the last eight months. Hussman FundsWhat others are sayingMany market onlookers have highlighted high stock market valuations in recent weeks.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says a 60% decline in the S&P 500 is likely as high valuations and weak investor sentiment create a 'trap door' scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The chart below shows how far the S&P 500 would have to fall to provide either a 10% return or 2% premium over Treasury bonds. He sees the S&P 500 finishing 2023 at around 3,150, he told YouTube channel Wealthion. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 0.8% over the past year.

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market says the S&P 500 has another 45% downside as investors remain blind to signs that a recession is hurtling toward the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Yet, stock market investors remain bullish, he said. He's been warning of a significant stock market decline since late 2021,"People are ignoring all the lessons of history," Wolfenbarger told Insider on Friday. His bearish outlook stems from how high stock valuations are relative to 10-year Treasury yields. Wolfenbarger also has company in thinking that stock market investors aren't heeding the warnings of a coming downturn. Yet, the stock market doesn't seem to reflect this uncertainty, he said.

☆ 5 must-see charts that show why the economy is barreling toward disaster — putting stocks at risk for massive declines
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening in labor market conditions," Powell said. "Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run." A large enough pullback in lending will send the economy into a downward spiral, he said. "If you get a credit crunch, you could have an immediate downturn in the economy, a very quick downturn," he said. Credit spreads are the gap between high-risk bond yields and yields on risk-free bonds.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns that the stock sell-off is 'not over by a long shot' — and that the S&P 500 could sink by more than 50%
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hussman called the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. Sure, the S&P 500 is down 17% from its peak on the first day of trading in 2022, 15 months ago. But the numbers don't lie, says Hussman, who called the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. Wilson sees the S&P 500 bottoming between 3,000-3,300, making him one of the more bearish strategists on the Street. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did.

☆ The chief investment strategist at a $540 billion firm explains why the stock market may have already bottomed for the year — and why he sees opportunity in the market's most beaten-down names
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Wes Crill believes the stock market may have already bottomed, according to historical precedence. In the long term, he's bullish on value stocks once again taking the reigns as market leaders. "In fact, the average return for value stocks was a little bit higher in periods where the overall stock market was positive." Across Wall Street, Crill's not the only one with a longer-term overweight towards value stocks. Instead, he says investors should stick to what history dictates works best: value stocks over a long time horizon.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks still have 60% further downside as sky-high valuations remain more inflated than every other crash over the last 100 years exce
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

John Hussman says stocks remain more overvalued than nearly every bubble over the last century. This week, Mike Wilson and Albert Edwards also said stocks remain highly overvalued. Right now, that risk-reward ratio for stocks is abysmal, says John Hussman, the president of the Hussman Investment Trust who called the 2000 and 2008 market crashes. Hussman FundsTo illustrate how out-of-whack stocks are relative to Treasury rates, Hussman compiled the below chart. This would mean around 60% further downside from levels seen earlier this week, when Hussman published the commentary.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns that stocks will face losses rivaling 1929, 2000, and 2007 as high valuations and poor investor sentiment create a "trap door" scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

There are two major driving forces of stock-market returns, according to John Hussman: valuations and investor sentiment. "Put simply, we estimate that the S&P 500 faces the same prospect of full-cycle loss and return-free risk as it did in 1929, 2000, and 2007. The S&P 500, in its current form since 1957, fell more than 46% from 2000-2002 and more than 52% from 2007-2009. Hussman FundsAs for investors sentiment — or what Hussman calls "market internals" — he uses a proprietary measure of the uniformity of investor behavior. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009.

☆ A 30-year investing vet who called the latest bear market warns that stocks have another 41% downside with US economy already in recession and the Fed continuing to ratchet up rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks the US economy is already in recession. With growth slowing and the Fed still tightening, Wolfenbarger thinks stocks are due for big losses. The S&P 500 is already down around 20% year-to-date. All of that spells further trouble ahead for stocks, Wolfenbarger said, despite the fact that the S&P 500 has already fallen about 20% in 2022. In a recessionary scenario, Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said the S&P 500 could fall to 3,150, though that is not his base case.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns stocks are still as overvalued as they were in 1929 and 2000, setting up the S&P 500 for a 'far deeper retreat' and a decade of negative ret
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman expects a "far deeper retreat" in stocks, despite the S&P 500's 20% loss in 2022. The 20% loss the S&P 500 has suffered this year has most investors searching for a bottom. "Though recent market losses have removed the most extreme speculative froth, our most reliable valuation measures remain near their 1929 and 2000 extremes." He also said he expects -6% returns over the next 10-12 years for the S&P 500. The chart below shows actual market returns (vertical axis) over 12 years when considering market capitalization of non-financial stock-to-gross value added valuations.

☆ Stock Market Crash: Expert Warns 58% Drop Still to Come
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The S&P 500 is down 16% on the year as the Fed tightens policy to fight inflation. The S&P 500 fell as much as 25% this year as the Federal Reserve pulled its support for the US economy. To return to normal valuation levels, the market would have to fall 58% further from where it sits currently, he said. The most bearish strategists among major Wall Street institutions see the S&P 500 falling to around the 3,000, about -25% assuming a recession plays out. He's more bearish than Wilson in the short term, however, with a three-month price target of 3,600 for the S&P 500.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks would still need to fall more than 50% just to reach valuation norms — and warns of an 'avalanche of earnings disappointments'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman says stocks would have to fall more than 50% further to hit valuation norms. Stocks have staged an impressive rally in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 up 9% since October 12. For Hussman, valuations are still too high, even though the benchmark index has fallen as much as 25% this year. Still, valuations are nowhere near levels that we associate with satisfactory long-term market returns, so I suspect that more shoes will drop." The earnings disappointments Hussman sees will be caused by restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve that weigh on demand.

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