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This year’s climb in Treasury yields is changing that calculus, as government bonds offer income that is viewed as risk-free to investors who hold them to term. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed about a full percentage point since then. The term premium is the added compensation investors expect for owning longer-term debt and is measured using financial models. Stocks have averaged a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 over the last 10 years, while the term premium has averaged -0.3%. That compares with a historical average forward P/E of 15.6 and a term premium of 1.4% since 1985.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, , Quincy Krosby, Elon Musk, John Lynch, Lynch, LSEG, Matthew Miskin, Keith Lerner, ” Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Dan Burns, Ira Iosebashvili, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Soaring U.S, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, . Treasury, BofA Global Research, LPL, Comerica Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, John Hancock Investment Management, UBS Global Wealth Management, Advisory, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Bonds are starting to make a lot of sense for investors, Forrest said. Even after pulling back somewhat from those levels, the benchmark yield remains within striking distance of the key 5% threshold. The potential unwinding of what BofA recently called the "greatest bond bear market in history" has more investors trying to lock in higher yields ahead of potential rate cuts next year from the Federal Reserve. 'A lot for us to love bonds' Other investors are building out their bond exposure. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) is off by more than 2% in 2023, but greater than 1% on the week.
Persons: Kim Forrest, she's, Forrest, Bonds, Treasurys, Forrest isn't, Nancy Tengler, She's, , Tengler, Bryce Doty, Emily Roland, CNBC's, I've, Roland, we've, Lawrence Gillum, Bokeh Capital's Forrest, Sit Investment's Doty, LPL Financial's Gillum, Gillum, Sit's Doty, Doty Organizations: Bokeh Capital Partners, Bank of America, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Laffer, Sit Investment, John Hancock Investment Management, LPL, Bloomberg, Bond, Aggregate Bond, Bond Market, Corporations Locations: U.S, Israel
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Trivariate's Adam Parker and John Hancock's Emily RolandAdam Parker, Trivariate Research CEO, and Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the stock outlook ahead of earnings.
Persons: Trivariate's Adam Parker, John Hancock's Emily Roland Adam Parker, Emily Roland, John Organizations: Trivariate, John Hancock Investment Management
S&P 500 (.SPX) companies overall are expected to have increased earnings by 1.3% from a year ago, according to LSEG IBES. After a rough September for stocks, "we need some good news" from earnings season, said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. Inflation dampened company earnings in the first half, after consumer prices surged in 2022 to their highest levels in decades. Investors will also scrutinize company fourth-quarter outlooks, with S&P 500 earnings for the fourth quarter currently expected to rise 10.8% from a year earlier. One clue could come from the consumer discretionary sector (.SPLRCD), where earnings are expected to have jumped by 23.1% from the year-ago period.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, LSEG, Matthew Miskin, You've, you've, Miskin, Rick Meckler, John Hancock, J.P, Morgan Chase, James Ragan, Davidson, Ragan, , Oliver Pursche, Caroline Valetkevitch, Lewis Krauskopf, Megan Davies, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, John Hancock Investment Management, Cherry, Investments, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo, UnitedHealth, Wealthspire Advisors, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Westport , Connecticut
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTrivariate's Adam Parker on markets: Financial conditions are tighteningAdam Parker, Trivariate Research CEO, and Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the stock outlook ahead of earnings.
Persons: Trivariate's Adam Parker, Adam Parker, Emily Roland, John Organizations: Trivariate, John Hancock Investment Management
The surprisingly strong economy has led investors to worry that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, which, in turn, drove US Treasury yields higher. As stocks have declined and bond yields have soared, bond prices have tanked, causing pain for investors who bet that the Fed would curtail its rate-hiking campaign earlier this year. Treasury yields rose to their highest level in over a decade earlier this week, before edging lower on a cooldown in employment data on Wednesday. Bond prices cratered in 2022 after the Fed began drastically raising near-zero rates to tame runaway inflation. US Treasury bond prices jumped earlier this year after the collapse of several regional lenders led traders to bet that the Fed would soon ease its aggressive pace of interest rate hikes.
Persons: , Noah Wise, Matt Miskin, FactSet, Miskin, Wise, doesn’t, you’re, ” Wise, Sam Bankman, Nathan Rehn, Allison Morrow, , ” Rehn, Read, Samantha Murphy Kelly Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Treasury, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Allspring Global Investments, John Hancock Investment Management, Fed, US Treasury, Google Locations: Manhattan, Bahamas, New York City
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe expect a lot of value unlocked from high-quality bonds, says John Hancock's Emily RolandEmily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's inflation fight, why she believes the Fed will keep rates high until something breaks, and more.
Persons: John Hancock's Emily Roland Emily Roland, John Organizations: John Hancock Investment Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHigh-quality industrials in the midwest are one of the best places to look: John Hancock's MiskinMatt Miskin, John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, why he believes there are parts of the market that are relatively cheap right now, rest of year outlook, and more.
Persons: John Hancock's Miskin Matt Miskin, John Organizations: John Hancock Investment Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Brian Belski, Bryn Talkington, and Emily RolandBrian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, Bryn Talkington, Requisite Capital Management managing partner, and Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the state of the markets.
Persons: Brian Belski, Bryn Talkington, Emily Roland Brian Belski, Emily Roland, John Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, Bryn, Capital Management, John Hancock Investment Management
U.S. stocks are the best place for investors compared to their international counterparts, according to Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. "The U.S. is simply holding in better than the rest of the world," Roland said in an interview from the conference in Huntington Beach, California. "I would call it the cleanest shirt in dirty laundry today." Roland said part of her reasoning stems from her outlook that quality stocks will perform better in a late-cycle environment. But Roland said investors need to act quickly, as bond yields will likely "come down in a meaningful way" into the next recession.
Persons: Emily Roland, Roland, CNBC's Bob Pisani, Organizations: John Hancock Investment Management Locations: Huntington Beach , California, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Pro at Future Proof: Finding quality stocks in an uncertain marketCNBC Senior Markets Correspondent Bob Pisani sits down for an interview with John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist Emily Roland from the Future Proof conference in Huntington Beach, California to discuss finding quality American stocks in an uncertain market and why bond yields could be headed for a decline
Persons: Bob Pisani, Emily Roland Organizations: CNBC, John Hancock Investment Management Locations: Huntington Beach , California
Surf City USA —for a financial conference. A financial conference on a beach? Reinventing the financial conferenceWelcome to FutureProof, billed as "the largest gathering of top-tier wealth management professionals, CEOs, CTOs, COOs, and fast-growing financial advisors." It's the brainchild of Barry Ritholtz, co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, and CEO Josh Brown. "Coming out of the pandemic, it was obvious to us that the traditional financial conference was past its sell-by date," Ritholtz told me.
Persons: Tang, Redman, They're, Jeremy Siegel, Jeff Kleintop, Charles Schwab, Emily Roland, John Hancock, Cliff Asness, Jeff Gundlach, maven Jan van Eck, Barry Ritholtz, Josh Brown, Ritholtz, FutureProof, You'll, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, RIAs, Dan Ives, Scott Wapner, Siegel, Morningstar, Christine Benz, Jeffrey Ptak, Ben Johnson, podcasters Michael Batnick, Ben Carlson, Wu, Tang Clan Organizations: Wharton, Ritholtz Wealth Management, Chiropractic, Health, Investment Advisors, CNBC, Financial Locations: Huntington Beach , CA, Huntington Beach , California, Surf, Huntington Beach, AQR, DoubleLine, FutureProof, COOs, Wells, Wedbush, Young
Many view healthcare as a defensive sector because it has constant demand and is somewhat insulated from the economy. In the latest week, investors pulled a net $1.4 billion from the sector, the biggest weekly outflow since May 2022. Overall, the healthcare sector - which ranges from health insurers like UnitedHealth to pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer to small biotechs - has received the third largest inflows of any sector year to date, BofA's data showed. This would weaken the case for loading up on healthcare stocks. Overall, healthcare sector earnings are expected to lag this year as COVID-related revenues decline 13% versus a 1.8% rise for the overall S&P 500.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Bob Kalman, Emily Roland, Dan Lyons, Janus Henderson, you've, Lyons, Kalman, Joe Biden's, Margie Patel, Patel, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, David Gregorio, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Atlanta Federal, BofA Global Research, Pfizer, Miramar Capital, Healthcare, John Hancock Investment Management, Janus Henderson Investors, U.S, Bristol Myers Squibb, Allspring Global Investments, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
"The U.S. consumer is on thin ice coming into the final stretch of 2023," said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. Further declines in the labor market will likely act as a double-edged sword for investors, relieving some inflation pressures while weighing on consumer spending. Overall consumer spending rose slightly more than expected in August, while the savings rate fell to its lowest since November 2022, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Betting against the consumer spending has so far been a losing wager. (This story has been corrected to say BNY Mellon Investment Management, not BNY Mellon, in paragraph 10)Reporting by David Randall; editing by Megan Davies and Andy SullivanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Nordstrom, Macy's, Emily Roland, Jake Jolly, Gregory Daco, Young, Jason Draho, Sandy Villere, Mellon, David Randall, Megan Davies, Andy Sullivan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apollo Group . Department, John Hancock Investment Management, of Labor Statistics, Commerce Department, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Treasury, Ernst, Atlanta Fed's, UBS Global Wealth Management, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Villere, Thomson Locations: New York City, Russia, Ukraine, New York, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Trivariate's Adam Parker and John Hancock's Emily RolandTrivariate's Adam Parker and John Hancock's Emily Roland, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the market vulnerability as stocks for banks slide and China concerns continue to loom.
Persons: Trivariate's Adam Parker, John Hancock's Emily Roland Trivariate's Adam Parker, John Hancock's Emily Roland Locations: China
This year, it’s largely been a different story, with bond yields rising on better-than-expected economic data. The S&P 500 (.SPX) has rallied over 16% from its March lows, despite a roughly 50 basis point increase in the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note over that time. That dynamic has changed in recent days, however, as Treasury yields have approached last year’s high while the S&P 500 has fallen 2% from its July peak. The bank’s analysts called rising yields "an underpriced risk" for the equity market. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% last week, its biggest weekly drop since March.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, it’s, Keith Lerner, Moody's, Peter Tuz, Refinitiv, Lerner, Matthew Miskin, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Grant McCool Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, U.S ., BofA Global Research, Advisory Services, Fitch, Apple, Chase Investment, John Hancock Investment Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, China, Charlottesville , Virginia, Truist
This year, it’s largely been a different story, with bond yields rising on better-than-expected economic data. The S&P 500 (.SPX) has rallied over 16% from its March lows, despite a roughly 50 basis point increase in the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note over that time. That dynamic has changed in recent days, however, as Treasury yields have approached last year’s high while the S&P 500 has fallen 2% from its July peak. The bank’s analysts called rising yields "an underpriced risk" for the equity market. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% last week, its biggest weekly drop since March.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, it’s, Keith Lerner, Moody's, Peter Tuz, Refinitiv, Lerner, Matthew Miskin, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Grant McCool Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, U.S ., BofA Global Research, Advisory Services, Fitch, Apple, Chase Investment, John Hancock Investment Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, China, Charlottesville , Virginia, Truist
Watch CNBC's full interview with the 'Closing Bell' panel
  + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with the 'Closing Bell' panelMeera Pandit, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon, and Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss Levine's thoughts on the current market footing, Rowland's thoughts on inflation and more.
Persons: Meera Pandit, J.P, Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon, Emily Roland, John Organizations: Morgan Asset Management, John Hancock Investment Management
Meanwhile, the John Hancock Preservation Blend and American Funds Target Date Retirement 2055 funds had lower average allocations — 80% and 84%, respectively, Morningstar said. The idea that everyone in a five-year age cohort should have the same asset allocation, it's just not correct. David Blanchett managing director and head of retirement research at PGIMOf course, TDFs can vary in many ways aside from asset allocation. For example, some are known as "through" funds, which continue to get more conservative throughout retirement; others are "to" funds, whose stock-bond proportions stay steady in retirement. Why asset allocation is more important for retireesPaying attention to asset allocation is particularly important for investors in or near retirement, Pacholok said.
Persons: Lourdes Balduque, John Hancock, Morningstar, Rowe Price, that's, Megan Pacholok, David Blanchett, Pacholok Organizations: John, John Hancock Preservation, Morningstar, of America, Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Locations: BlackRock, TDFs
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation will keep moderating so Fed won't raise rates after today, says Moody's Mark ZandiEmily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist, Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, and Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the upcoming decision from the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Mark Zandi Emily Roland, John, Subadra, Mark Zandi Organizations: John Hancock Investment Management, Societe Generale, Federal Reserve
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're seeing the broadening that we've been looking for, says John Hancock’s Emily RolandEmily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, rest of the year outlook, and more.
Persons: John Hancock’s Emily Roland Emily Roland, John Organizations: John Hancock Investment Management
In 2013, he listed some famous figures who were surprisingly young when the American Revolution began. For example, Alexander Hamilton was only 21 years old and James Monroe was just 18. Others were surprisingly young — even teenagers. James Monroe, for example, was 18 and Alexander Hamilton was 21. In 2013, Todd Andrlik, an authority on 18th-century newspapers, compiled a list of the ages of famous people at the start of the American Revolution for the Journal of the American Revolution.
Persons: Todd Andrlik, Alexander Hamilton, James Monroe, , Thomas Jefferson, John Hancock, Benjamin Franklin Organizations: American Revolution, Service, American Revolutionaries, American Locations: American, Britain, Independence
The 15% year-to-date rally in the S&P 500 (.SPX) is pulling once doubtful investors back into the market. Meanwhile, options investors are buying calls - bets on upside in stocks - at levels not seen in years. A record 1.8 million S&P 500 calls traded on Thursday, helping lift the one-month moving average of calls-to-puts to the highest in at least four years, Trade Alert data showed. The S&P 500 has posted a median gain of 18% in the 12 months after clearing the 20% threshold, LPL Financial data showed. One encouraging signal is that a greater number of S&P 500 stocks are heading higher, in addition to the handful of megacap growth names such as Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) that led gains this year.
Persons: you've, Emily Roland, Goldman Sachs, Willie Delwiche, we're, Delwiche, Brent Kochuba, Matt Stucky, Ken Mahoney, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, National Association of Active Investment, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Trade, John Hancock Asset Management, Mount Research, American Association of, Investors, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, Fed, Microsoft, Nvidia, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors want to be 'drafting' right now by limiting risk and trailing, says John Hancock's RowlandEmily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss how the market's rally has made the strategist feel, how investors can 'draft' the market, and more.
Persons: John Hancock's Rowland Emily Roland Organizations: Investors, John Hancock Investment Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTechnology stocks are the poster child for quality, says John Hancock Investment's Emily RolandEmily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist, and Joe Terranova, Virtus Investment Partners chief market strategist, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss market anticipation for a Fed pivot, the ongoing tech rally, and the bullish read of market technicals.
Persons: John Hancock, Emily Roland Emily Roland, John, Joe Terranova Organizations: Technology, John Hancock Investment Management, Virtus Investment Partners
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