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☆ The last, best hope for homebuyers
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

But there may be one last hope for salvation for these hard-pressed homebuyers: brand-spanking new houses. Many builders are even dangling perks like cheaper loans or other discounts to ease the pain of higher mortgage rates. Homebuilding is typically a cyclical industry, following the ups and downs of the broader housing market. Of course, people will always move for reasons that have nothing to do with mortgage rates. Even if buyers get some relief from new housing construction, builders are still a long way off from bridging the housing shortfall.

Persons: Richard de Chazal, William Blair, de Chazal, Realtor.com, bottoming, John Burns, Black Knight, Mike Simonsen, Simonsen, bode, it's, Sheryl Palmer, Taylor Morrison, Palmer, Cristian deRitis, Jay Parsons, Matthew Walsh, Walsh, Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun, They're, production's, James Rodriguez Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, John Burns Research, Consulting, Altos Research, National Association of Homebuilders, Builders, Moody's

☆ Arizona governor slams the brakes on Phoenix development because it doesn't have enough water
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-04 | by ( ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Arizona will halt approvals of new developments that don't plan for alternate water sources. The new rule applies to the Phoenix area, whose population just topped 5 million in 2022. The state is also under federal pressure to use less water from the Colorado River. But regulators won't be approving new developments in areas around Phoenix that depend solely on groundwater supplies. Hobbs said a study of the project showed that it will require water sources other than groundwater.

Persons: Katie Hobbs, Hobbs, Phoenix, John Burns Organizations: Service, Los Angeles Times, Democrat, LA Times, Developers, Census, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Gov Locations: Arizona, Phoenix, Colorado, Arizona , California, Nevada, Chandler, Houston, John Burns Real Estate Consulting . Arizona

☆ Wall Street landlords with billions in their coffers have gone silent, patiently waiting for cheaper homes to buy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-21 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

For the first two or so years of the pandemic, it looked like big, corporate landlords would buy up so many rental homes that they'd soon control the market that had been the purview of mom-and-pop owners. But five months in, the lull that started the year persists, said analysts at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a purveyor of real-estate data. According to JT Graham, a John Burns analyst who attended an April conference of the SFR lobbying group National Home Rental Council, the buzzword there was "patience." For those that do make the trip, they can console themselves that the industry's fundamentals are strong enough to offset headwinds such as soaring taxes and slowing rent growth, John Burns analysts said. They're also able to absorb defaults and vacancies in the way small landlords can't as their costs increase.

☆ The biggest home buyers in America are now selling more property than they're buying
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Commercial property headwinds aside, today we're looking at the residential housing market, which is undergoing its own shifts, but not exactly in the same direction. Tell someone that the housing market is so unfavorable right now that the biggest home buyers in the country are actually net sellers now. American Homes 4 Rent, for example, bought 312 single-family homes and sold 666 to start the year. Similarly, Invitation Homes, the largest owner of single-family rentals in the US, bought 194 homes and sold 297 in the first quarter of 2o23. Naturally, the housing market has slowed down for everyday Americans, too, given the steep mortgage rates and lack of affordability.

☆ Housing market shifts are driving out some of the biggest home buyers in the country
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Institutional investors bought 90% fewer homes in the first two months of 2023 compared to a year ago. High rates and home prices have turned some big buyers into net sellers this year. That trend accelerated from the fourth quarter, when institutional home-buying activity slumped 79% from a year ago, according to Fortune. Among the institutional investors, American Homes 4 Rent was a net seller of homes in the first quarter, buying 312 single-family homes and shedding 666, per Fortune. Similarly, Invitation Homes — the largest owner of single-family rentals in the US — was a net seller in the first quarter.

☆ The Real Reason Rent Costs Are Sky High: People Left Their Roommates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

Though rent growth has slowed in recent months, renters in large cities are still feeling the effects of the 2021-22 rent boom. Residents of these places are now asking the question: If so many people left, why is my rent still so expensive? The first was outbound migration, which led to weaker housing demand in city centers. "High house prices, high rents, and rising interest rates are probably pushing back against household formation," Ozimek told me. If more employees keep adopting remote work — which, I'll admit, is a big "if" — that indicates housing demand is bound to increase.

☆ The housing market is showing signs of a rebound as cancellations for homes under construction drop to levels last seen during the pandemic buying boom
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rate of cancellations has dropped nearly to what was seen during the peak of the pandemic housing boom. A March survey by John Burns Research and Consulting found that builders reported an aggregate cancellation rate of 9% for purchases of new homes under construction. KB Home, for example, said its cancellation rate for the first three months of 2023 stood at 36%, down from 68% the quarter prior. "As we entered the spring selling season during the quarter, we began to see an increase in [housing] demand," Jeffrey Mezger, chief executive of KB Home said in March. "This reflected in part the targeted sales strategies we deployed, together with a stabilizing mortgage interest rate environment.

☆ The housing market’s still in limbo - but homebuyers could pile back into the market if mortgage rates hit this key level
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"Home sales are trying to recover and are highly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates," NAR economist Lawrence Yun said. He added that home prices are still climbing in regions where jobs are being added and housing is relatively affordable. cutting rates) in the next 12 months, which will again sway the housing sector. With that outlook in mind, the economist said "home sales will steadily rebound despite several months of fluctuations." Even in a tight market, this home expert still sees potential to save money on interest rates.

☆ 5.5% may be a magic number for mortgage rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Mortgage rates more than doubled over the past year, reaching as high as 7.08% in November, according to Freddie Mac’s average weekly mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed rate loan. The survey found that 5.5% mortgage rates seem to be the tipping point. A majority of respondents — 71% — said they are not willing to accept a mortgage rate above 5.5%. Looking at forecasts of mortgage rates for the rest of the second quarter of 2023, no major forecast is even predicting rates under 6%. Furthermore, 5.5% is lower than the historical average for mortgage rates.

☆ How Severe Is the Housing Shortage? It Depends on How You Define ‘Shortage’
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Josh Zumbrun | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

How many new homes does the U.S. need to build to restore normalcy to the housing market? While everyone seems to agree there’s a housing shortage, there’s little agreement on its magnitude. The National Low Income Housing Coalition says the U.S. has a shortage of 7.3 million units, Realtor.com says 6.5 million, mortgage-finance company Fannie Mae says 4.4 million and Up for Growth, a policy group focused on the housing shortage, says 3.8 million units. John Burns Research & Consulting, a real-estate industry consultant, puts it at just 1.7 million.

☆ Today's homebuyers have their mortgage rate tipping point, and it's artificially low
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Today's homebuyers are exceptionally sensitive to mortgage rates with house prices so high — and they've found their tipping point. After years of government intervention following the great recession and the first years of the Covid-19 pandemic that kept mortgage rates artificially low, today's buyers have a skewed view of what "normal" mortgage rates are. In addition, 62% of buyers said they believed that a "historically normal mortgage rate" was below 5.5%. "Today's homebuyers are extremely sensitive to fluctuating interest rates, and a significant drop in mortgage rates would likely make the market more competitive." Nearly two-thirds of respondents said they've had to reduce their housing budgets due to the current level of mortgage rates.

☆ Mortgage demand rises despite volatile interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Demand for mortgages increased for the second straight week, despite some volatility in mortgage rates. That was the average, but mortgage rates were largely higher for most of the week before dropping sharply Friday on news of the Silicon Valley Bank failure. Despite rates being higher, mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 7% for the week but were still 38% lower than the same week a year ago. "That always happens when rates surge and it only lasts a few weeks," said John Burns of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, who said he saw an increase in sales of newly built homes in February despite higher rates. Mortgage rates dropped further Monday, according to a separate survey from Mortgage News Daily, but bounced higher again Tuesday after the February consumer price index was released, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again next week despite recent banking industry turmoil.

☆ The Phoenix housing bubble spectacularly popped in 2008. Countless signs point towards a similar struggle now. Here's how bad it really is.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-05 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Phoenix's housing market is quickly deteriorating as a pullback in demand triggers home price declines. And as Phoenix's housing market performs an about-face from the dramatic rise it had witnessed from spring 2020 through summer 2022, experts across the country are debating the possibility of the whole market imploding. And as of January 2023, area home sales are down 74% year-over-year, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. The Phoenix Valley — a sprawling desert metropolis that's home to nearly 5 million people — is no stranger to speculative real estate bubbles. Phoenix's housing market could be on track to normalizingDespite the numerous indicators of a weakening housing market, Phoenix may simply be facing a correction versus a crash, several experts told Insider.

☆ A 24-year-old homebuyer whose builder paid for a lower mortgage interest rate said it was what he needed to purchase his first home
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

During the first year of his loan, Ogata will have an interest rate of 6.1% for a 30-year-fixed mortgage rate. Once the year is completed, his interest rate will climb to 7.1%. A study from John Burns Real Estate Consulting shows that as of December, 75% of US homebuilders were offering mortgage rate buydowns. "The biggest thing that triggered it was when interest rates unprecedentedly doubled in a very short amount of time," Todd told Insider. Needing a way to address the decline in affordability, Todd says a mortgage rate buydown program was naturally the best tool in their deck.

☆ Here’s what to expect in the housing market this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —Last year was a wild ride in the US housing market. So what’s in store for the housing market this year? “Mortgage rates are really critical to the path of the housing market in the year ahead,” said Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow. “Yes, things have cooled way down in the housing market, but we don’t have a glut of homes for sale,” said Tucker. A plain, boring, vanilla year in the housing market would be a wonderful surprise.”

Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz said the storm's confirmed death toll climbed to 13 on Sunday, up from three reported overnight in the Buffalo region. The latest victims included some found in cars and some in snow banks, Poloncarz said, adding that the death tally would likely rise further. New York Governor Kathy Hochul called it an "epic, once-in-a-lifetime" weather disaster that ranked as the fiercest winter storm to hit the greater Buffalo area since a crippling 1977 blizzard that killed nearly 30 people. RESCUING THE RESCUERSThe latest blizzard came nearly six weeks after a record-setting but shorter-lived lake-effect storm struck western New York. [1/9] A snow plow is left stranded on the road following a winter storm that hit the Buffalo region on Main St. in Amherst, New York, U.S., December 25, 2022.

☆ Wall Street landlords who've stockpiled $110 billion are lying in wait for their biggest American home-buying spree yet
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( James Rodriguez | Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Institutional investors have earmarked as much as $110 billion to buy or build single-family homes. Institutional investors now own about 3% of the roughly 20 million single-family-rental homes in the US, according to Roofstock, an online marketplace for single-family investment properties. That would be nearly 9% of the roughly 88 million single-family homes in the US, according to the Census Bureau's most recent statistics from 2020. Better deals expected in the years aheadThere are signs the institutional investors won't have to wait long to begin buying. That leaves between roughly $70 billion and $80 billion that could still flow into the sector.

☆ Homebuilders are fronting thousands of dollars in cash to help buyers reduce their mortgage rate and make homes more affordable
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Robert Davis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Mortgage rate buydowns are a home financing tool that provides buyers with a lower interest rate. Homebuilders are employing rate buydowns the most in areas where home prices are falling the fastest. A prevalent trend that builders are leaning into in order to help them sell more homes amid an increasingly tough economic climate is paying for mortgage rate buydowns for prospective buyers. A rate buydown is an upfront payment for "discount points" at closing to reduce the rate on a fixed-rate mortgage term. The company is offering what's known as a 2-1 buydown where a buyer's mortgage rate is decreased by 2% during their first year and 1% in their second year before returning to a fixed rate for the remaining duration of the loan.

☆ Homebuyers are losing out on homes and big deposits as affordability escapes them
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Kelsey Neubauer | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Many people who put thousands down on new homes canceled their contracts and lost money, per NPR. They told NPR they didn't have a choice because the payments had grown since rates rose. That's because home builders are feeling the heat too — Paul Schwinghammer, president of the Indiana Builders Association, told NPR that many home builders can't afford to give back the cash. "The sales guy, he always tells us we're going to lose the deposit if we don't buy the house," Paulo Echeverry, one such person, told NPR. Today, with the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.33%, according to Freddie Mac, the same home would be $1,475 per month, according to Insider's mortgage calculator, a 45% increase in monthly payments.

☆ Those deciding whether to rent or buy in 2023 are stuck: Rents are expected to increase more than home prices, but it will still be costly to buy.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-04 | by ( Jordan Pandy | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Rents are expected to grow more than home prices in 2023, according to Realtor.com. But mortgage rates are also expected to grow, potentially negating any advantages to buying. However, mortgage rates are expected to rise more than they already have this year. A 2023 housing forecast from Realtor.com predicted a 7.4% average for mortgage rates in 2023, which would push homebuyers' monthly payments up and generally make homeownership more costly. According to Realtor.com, mortgage payments will likely increase by 28% in 2023, making the typical monthly payment about $2,430.

☆ JPMorgan is about to spend $1 billion on hundreds of rental homes across the US on the way to becoming a megalandlord
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Robert Davis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Haven Realty Capital and JPMorgan Chase's asset management arm said they will invest up to $1 billion to develop build-to-rent single-family homes across the country, according to a November 15 announcement. It refers to a process where developers construct an entire community of typically detached single-family homes that are later rented out by an operating partner. The trend gained steam during the COVID-19 pandemic as demand for single-family homes and suburban living skyrocketed. Institutional investors like Fundrise as well as pension funds, and public companies have been steadily acquiring single-family homes to rent for a profit. He told Insider in early November that the build-to-rent trend is a "useful response to the market's needs."

☆ Home flippers are having a tough time selling to regular people who need a mortgage, so they're offloading their properties to big investors instead
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

New data reveals that larger real estate businesses are buying flipped homes from smaller investors. This shift in the market has caused these smaller operators to place their faith elsewhere: In big institutional investors. "Flippers may opt to sell to institutional buyers in today's environment since they can usually close quickly and may not be as rate-sensitive," Thomas said. Exacerbating a housing shortage and high rentsAs institutional investors continue to swallow up homes, they are exacerbating housing shortages in the neighborhoods they occupy. "When a hedge fund comes in and buys up a bunch of single-family properties, those houses are gone," Doug Greene, owner of Philadelphia-based Signature Properties, told Bankrate in August.

☆ 2008-level home-price declines are coming for some areas, one of Wall Street's top housing advisors now says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Burns Real Estate Consulting expects price drops of 20% or more for certain housing markets. Higher mortgage rates have wrecked demand for homes, but the firm says prices are still too high. Devyn Bachman, the senior vice president of research for John Burns, told Insider she had begun to expect "GFC-like pricing declines in certain markets." A survey conducted by John Burns last month found roughly 18% of homebuilders were already reporting year-over-year net home-price declines. "It's going to be a challenging one to two years for anyone involved in housing," Bachman said.

☆ The biggest dilemma for homeowners right now: Should I sell or rent my home in 2022?
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-08 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

More owners are now wrestling with the question of whether to sell their home or rent it out. Sellers in today's housing market face a nagging question: Should I just rent out my home instead? He told Insider he's now debating whether to sell or rent out his property. Some property managers are preparing for more homeowners to choose to rent out their homes rather than sell. "As we move into fall here, and more and more properties continue to hit the market, the market becomes weaker and weaker," Linnemann said.

☆ Can you — or should you — buy a house right now? Take our quiz to find out if rising rates and soaring prices will squeeze you out of your dream home.
▼ + stars: | 2022-06-29 | by ( Kelsey Neubauer | Andy Kiersz | Kazi Awal | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Rising mortgage rates, scant inventory, and soaring home prices are hard for house-hunting hopefuls. Take our quiz to find out if you're financially prepared to buy a house, even in this tough market. In 2020 and 2021, record-low mortgage rates and newfound work-from-home flexibility turbocharged demand for housing, resulting in astronomical price increases and seemingly endless bidding wars. Then see whether prevailing personal-finance advice recommends that you buy — and what your monthly mortgage payments would look like if you do. Zillow provides real-time mortgage rates.

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