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☆ All eyes are on TSMC earnings as the chipmaker industry faces slowdown worries
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors are awaiting TSMC earnings for signs of what's to come for the chip sector. The chipmaker will report its full third-quarter earnings in the early hours on Thursday. The stock is up 84% year-to-date, thanks partly to the firm's strong financial results so far in 2024. Traders are waiting for guidance from TSMC executives on the firm's earnings call regarding demand in the current quarter as well as the coming year. Fears about demand were ignited recently when Nvidia reported results for the second quarter in August.

Persons: —, Jensen Huang, Blackwell, Huang Organizations: Service, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, Apple, P Semiconductor, Traders Locations: Taiwan

☆ The stock market is in a 'mania' that will push it higher before a potential 26% drop in 2025, Stifel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 could lose a quarter of its value next year, according to Stifel. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 looks like it's in the midst of another "mania," and investors could see a steep drop in the benchmark index sometime next year, according to Stifel. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 looks like the fifth stock mania, according to a Stifel analysis spanning the last 139 years. Stocks could be challenged next year due to the uncertain outlook for Fed rate cuts, the strategists suggested. Investors could be impacted for the long-term, they added, pointing to previous manias, which historically led to weak stock returns over the following decade.

Persons: it's, —, manias Organizations: Service, Bloomberg

☆ China could raise nearly $1 trillion of fresh debt in the next 3 years to revive its economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Chinese media reported that China could rack up $850 billion in debt to help revive its economy. China has vowed to roll out more fiscal stimulus, but key details were missing in a recent update. AdvertisementChina's fiscal stimulus efforts could include racking up almost $1 trillion in fresh debt over the next several years, according to local media. The money could be used as fiscal stimulus and to help "off-the-books debt" in local governments, the people added. One researcher recently estimated that the direct effects of China's latest stimulus package may not be felt until 2025, mainly because more fiscal stimulus needs to be unlocked before the policies can bolster the nation's economy.

Persons: —, Lan Fo'an Organizations: Service, China's, Finance, CNBC, Bloomberg, CSI Locations: China, Beijing, Hong Kong

☆ Stock market today: Dow jumps 337 points to fresh record as US stocks rise on solid earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks rose on Wednesday after traders took in a handful of strong corporate earnings reports. Chip stocks wavered after Tuesday's selloff, with eyes on TSMC ahead of earnings. AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Wednesday as traders took in strong earnings results to bounce back from a sell-off in the chip sector in the previous session. Stocks, though, are on par for another strong quarter of earnings results. The S&P 500 is on track to report 7% year-per-year earnings growth for the third quarter, according to estimates from FactSet.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Tuesday's selloff, —, ASML Organizations: United Airlines, Service, Dow Jones, Micro Devices, Investors, Nvidia Locations: FactSet, Here's

☆ Stock market today: Indexes mixed as traders look to recover from chip sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks wavered on Wednesday as traders looked to recover from a sell-off in the chip sector. Morgan Stanley beat estimates on strong investment banking activity. AdvertisementUS stocks wavered on Wednesday as traders looked to recover from a sell-off in the chip sector and waited for another round of corporate earnings reports. The Nasdaq was down slightly as chip stocks struggled to recover from Tuesday's sell-off. Chip stocks stumbled in the previous session after ASML cut its sales guidance for 2025.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, —, Wall Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, AMD, Nvidia

☆ There are 2 things that could go wrong for the US economy and spark a recession, Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

There are two things that could go wrong in the economy that could lead to a recession, Morgan Stanley said. AdvertisementThe US economy appears on track to keep growing, but there are two things that could spoil the no-recession forecast on Wall Street, according to Morgan Stanley. A slowdown, then people get laid off, laid off people spend less, the economy slows down more, and it snowballs," he added. "So that's another place where I think we could be wrong," Carpenter said of his recession forecast, though he reiterated that a downturn wasn't his baseline view. And if anything, where we were wrong with our forecast so far is that things have turned out even better than we dare hoped," Carpenter added.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, —, Seth Carpenter, Carpenter, Trump, Morgan, we've Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New York Fed

☆ Russia's imports from China surged in September as Moscow and Beijing deepen economic ties
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russian imports of goods from China surged in September. Russia relies heavily on China for trade due to Western sanctions and isolation from global markets. AdvertisementRussia's imports of goods from China increased sharply last month, a sign that Moscow is leaning more heavily on Beijing after the two countries affirmed their economic ties. The surge of trading activity follows a fresh cooperation agreement Russia and China finalized in late August, which vowed, among other things, to deepen trade ties. Moscow has grown more reliant on Beijing as an economic partner since being targeted by Western sanctions in 2022.

Persons: —, Bejing, Vladimir Putin, Li Qiang Organizations: Service Locations: China, Russia, Moscow, Beijing, India, Ukraine

☆ Collapse risks loom as markets are the most fragile they've been in 20 years, 'Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"The Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb says he's focused on hedging against a market collapse. He said the market is flashing parallels to prior crashes, noting that it is the most fragile in 20 years. He pointed to risks like high debt levels and "crazy" stock prices in an interview with Bloomberg. Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan," the famed treatise on the risks related to improbable events, aired concerns over the state of the market in a recent interview with Bloomberg. Universa Investments is technically "market blind," Taleb said, as the firm employs an investment strategy that disregards short-term market forecasts.

Persons: Swan, Nassim Taleb, he's, —, Taleb, Mark Spitznagel Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Universa

☆ Russia is reportedly making it more painful for businesses to leave by forcing big discounts and raising exit taxes
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia is reportedly tightening the screws on firms looking to exit the country. Companies looking to sell their operations will now do so at a 60% discount, sources told Bloomberg. Foreign firms that left Russia have incurred over $100 billion in losses, a Reuters analysis found. AdvertisementBusinesses trying to leave Russia are facing painful costs in the form of taxes and forced discounts, people familiar with matter told Bloomberg last week. But over 1,700 foreign companies continue to operate in the nation, according to data compiled by the Leave Russia project.

Persons: — Organizations: Companies, Bloomberg, Service, Shell, HSBC, Yale School of Management Locations: Russia, Moscow, Ukraine

☆ America's offices are about to see a wave of distress that could result in a billion square feet of fresh housing supply
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Advertisement"The banks are going to have to dispose of that real estate," Barkham told Business Insider in an interview. John Vavas, a real estate finance attorney at Polsinelli who works with commercial real estate lenders, has worked on a handful of office-to-residential conversion deals this year. There's around 1.2 billion square feet worth of office space that could be spun into residential space, Yardi said in a separate report. Late payments on commercial real estate loans have climbed to 1.42% in the second quarter, the highest rate in nearly 10 years. Commercial real estate prices, meanwhile, dropped another 9% year-over-year in the first quarter, Fed data shows.

Persons: —, Richard Barkham, Barkham, RentCafe, John Vavas, Yardi, Vavas Organizations: Service, Federal, Silverstein Properties, Washington DC Locations: New York, United States, New York City, Dallas, Chicago, Los Angeles

☆ Home prices are down as much as 12% in boomtowns in Florida, Texas, and other popular states
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Metros in Florida, Texas, and other states are seeing prices fall by as much as 12%, per Realtor.com. Miami, FloridaPedro Portal/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty ImagesMedian list price: $525,000Change from last year: -12.4%2. Orlando, FloridaSmithlandia Media/Getty ImagesMedian list price: $429,950Change from last year: -5.6%Advertisement9. Tampa, FloridaJohn Coletti/Getty ImagesMedian list price: $414,948Change from last year: -5.5%10. Nashville, TennesseeJohn Coletti/Getty ImagesMedian list price: $547,865Change from last year: -5.4%

Persons: —, Miami , Florida Pedro, Swapan Jha, San Francisco , California Nicholas Klein, Kansas City , Missouri Edwin Remsberg, Austin , Texas RYAN KYTE, Jacksonville , Florida Dan Reynolds, Tampa , Florida John Coletti, Nashville , Tennessee John Coletti Organizations: Metros, Service, metros, Miami Herald, Tribune, Getty, Kansas, Orlando , Florida Smithlandia Locations: Florida , Texas, Realtor.com, Florida, Texas, Miami , Florida, Cincinnati , Ohio, San Francisco , California, Kansas City , Missouri, Austin ,, Jacksonville , Florida, Denver , Colorado, Orlando , Florida, Tampa , Florida, Nashville , Tennessee

☆ Why Chinese stocks will climb another 50% from current levels, research CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Chinese stocks are poised for a huge run-up in the next year, according to Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf. Other notable investors have been looking to buy the dip in Chinese stocks amid continued stimulus efforts. Other traders on Wall Street have shown interest in buying the dip in Chinese equities, despite fear that Beijing's economic slowdown could stick around. Other strategists on Wall Street have made bullish calls on Chinese equities in recent weeks, with eyes on continued stimulus measures in Beijing. Goldman Sachs predicted China's stock market could rally another 20%, thanks to "more substantial policy measures" and Chinese stocks being oversold, strategists said in a note.

Persons: Jeff deGraaf, —, deGraaf, Beijing didn't, Mario Draghi, Michael Hartnett, Yuan Wei, Yuan, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Macro, CSI, Bloomberg, Beijing, Investors, Bank of America, Investment Fund Management Co Locations: —, Beijing, China, Wall, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

☆ Oil oversupply could send prices tumbling in 2025, energy analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Oil could see a decline to a "much, much" lower price, according to crude analyst Tom Kloza. Oversupply will weigh on oil prices in 2025, Kloza predicted. AdvertisementThe oil market is headed into a troubled year in 2025, and crude prices may fall "much, much" lower, according to Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at Oil Price Information Service. The oil analyst said crude prices would experience more downward pressure in 2025 despite concerns that conflict in the Middle East could escalate and send prices higher. "It was pointing lower, and I think it's still pointing lower.

Persons: Tom Kloza, Kloza, —, Goldman Sachs, Brent Organizations: Service, Oil Price Information Service, Traders, CNBC, Energy Information Administration, Giants, Jets Locations: Saudi Arabia, Iraq

☆ Russia's ruble hits the lowest level in a year against the dollar and the yuan
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia's ruble continued to sag against the dollar and the yuan, hitting its lowest level in a year. That drop comes ahead of a key US Treasury license expiring this month. AdvertisementRussia's ruble sank to its lowest level in a year against the US dollar and China's yuan this week. The ruble fell to around 97 against the dollar on Thursday, its lowest level against the greenback since October of 2023. The ruble traded around 13.72 against the yuan, also the lowest level against China's currency in a year.

Persons: — Organizations: Treasury, Reuters, Service, Moscow Exchange, National Clearing Center, US Treasury Locations: Moscow, Russia, Ukraine

☆ Stock market today: US stocks close at all-time highs ahead of key inflation update
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Indexes hit fresh all-time highs ahead of the key inflation report for September due Thursday. AdvertisementUS stocks jumped on Wednesday as traders looked ahead to coming inflation data and took in the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting. The stakes of the next inflation reading have risen after the big September jobs number, and Wall Street could be in for some volatility in the event of an upside surprise, Bank of America said this week. Central bankers predicted inflation would fall to 2% by 2026, while risks to economic strength were "tilted to the downside." According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds for another jumbo-sized rate cut in 2024 have fallen to zero.

Persons: —, Josh Hirt, Oliver Allen Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Investors, Nasdaq, Justice, Treasury, Here's, Fed, Bank of America, Vanguard, Pantheon

☆ Russia has lost another banking partner as more lenders turn their back on Moscow over fear of sanctions
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp will stop processing Russian transactions in November, Bloomberg reported. The Singaporean bank is following lenders in China, which have largely pulled back from Russia. AdvertisementAnother bank has turned its back on Russia as lenders grow worried about doing business with Moscow under threat of Western sanctions. The changes come as more lenders grow hesitant about doing deals with Russian clients after the West threatened to impose secondary sanctions on firms doing business in the country. A Russian state media outlet reported that nearly all Chinese banks have stopped processing payments from Russia out of fear of being targeted.

Persons: —, Oversea, hasn't Organizations: Chinese Banking Corp, Bloomberg, Service, Banking Corp, Business Locations: Russia, China, Moscow, Singapore, Russian

☆ Tesla is approaching its 'most hyped' event in a decade. Here's what Wall Street is expecting from Robotaxi Day.
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Tesla is about to unveil its Robotaxi, the self-driving car Elon Musk has talked about for years. Tesla will host its long-awaited Robotaxi event on Thursday, where the company is set to unveil the self-driving car Musk has teased for years. Tesla shares slumped earlier this year after Musk moved the Robotaxi event from August to October, which fueled concerns about the new technology. Tesla is hosting the Robotaxi event at Warner Bros. That venue may be able to demo the self-driving car with a Hollywood polish, analysts have said.

Persons: Tesla, Elon Musk, —, Elon, Jay Woods, They've, Woods, Musk, UBS Tesla, Wedbush, Garrett Nelson, Nelson, CFRA Organizations: Service, Freedom Capital, Schwab Network, UBS, Warner Bros, Bloomberg, Truist Securities Truist Securities, Optimus, Wedbush, Tesla, CFRA Research Locations: Hollywood

☆ Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed with Fed minutes and rate outlook in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks traded mixed as investors looked ahead to the central bank's meeting minutes. Traders are anticipating a quarter-point rate cut in November. Monetary policy is in focus after an unexpectedly hot job report in September, fueling doubt over whether the Fed will issue another jumbo rate cut this year. "The tone of the Fed minutes should not change expectations of further rate cuts—the Fed is still scrambling to catch up with inflation slowing in the US, and started cutting rates late. AdvertisementAccording to Pantheon Macroeconomics, the Fed is more likely to begin cutting rates in 25-basis-point increments rather than issuing another 50-basis-point rate cut.

Persons: —, Paul Donovan Organizations: Service, Reserve, UBS Global Wealth Management, Pantheon, Fed, US Department of Justice

☆ Why the interest-rate cut isn't delivering the relief consumers were hoping for
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

In today's big story, we got our first interest-rate cut, but it doesn't feel like it for many consumers . We finally got an interest-rate cut, but borrowing costs are still high. First off, last month's interest-rate cut wasn't going to provide immediate relief. Yes, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has gone up 47 basis points since the Fed cut rates , writes BI's Matthew Fox. So the Fed cut rates but borrowing costs went up?

Persons: —, Milton, Alyssa Powell, isn't materializing, Jennifer Sor, Let's, BI's Matthew Fox, I'm, It's, BI's James Rodriguez, who's, Warren Faidley, Hurricane Milton, Hindenburg, Chelsea Jia Feng, Vinod Khosla, OpenAI, Mark Zuckerbergs, Gen Zers, haven't, Rebecca Zisser, Elon Musk's, Tesla, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi, Amanda Yen Organizations: Business, Service, Gas, Hindenburg, Tech, DOJ, Google, Walt Disney World, Hurricane Milton, Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, Hurricane, Energy, Futures, Bank of America, Disney Locations: Florida, Warren, Tampa, Chelsea, Robotaxi, Hurricane, New York, London

☆ The economy is facing a 'no-landing' scenario that undercuts the financial relief many Americans hoped for
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

However, the economy and the job market may be too strong to warrant steep rate cuts in the near term. "September's strong employment report and upward revisions in July and August murdered the hard-landing scenario," Yardeni said in a note to clients this week. The 30-year mortgage rate has crept higher, not lower, since the Fed delivered its big rate cut. As the economy reaccelerates, inflation could become a problem again, solidifying a higher for longer interest rate outlook that many had abandoned after the Fed's jumbo rate cut last month. Advertisement"With benchmark interest rates coming down, most prospective borrowers don't feel relieved of high borrowing costs," according to Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate.

Persons: —, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Megan Horneman, Steven Blitz, Mark Hamrick Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Yardeni, Fed, Verdence Capital Advisors, TS Lombard, Philadelphia Fed

☆ Traders are betting Hurricane Milton will knock out electricity and leave power plants idling
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Energy traders are betting that Hurricane Milton will spark power outages in Florida. US natural gas futures have fallen 8% in the last three days. Front-month US natural gas futures have dropped 8% over the last three days, from $2.97 to $2.74 per million British thermal units as of Tuesday morning. The price drop comes as the Southeast prepares for Hurricane Milton, which is expected to hit Florida by Wednesday evening. Energy traders have leaned more bullish on natural gas in recent weeks before the latest bout of extreme weather.

Persons: Hurricane Milton, —, Helene Organizations: Hurricane, Traders, Service, Energy, Southeast, Florida, Gas, New York Mercantile, Intercontinental Exchanges, Reuters Locations: Florida

☆ The job market is in the 'Twilight Zone,' top economist Claudia Sahm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US job market is in a strange quandary, according to Claudia Sahm. The September jobs report was huge, but Sahm said the labor market is still cooling. AdvertisementThe job market is in a weird spot, even after Friday's stunningly strong nonfarm payroll report, Claudia Sahm says. The former Federal Reserve economist and the creator of a highly watched recession indicator pointed to signs that the labor market is cooling, despite September's blowout jobs report. Other forecasters have said the job market remains in uncertain territory, though labor conditions are generally on strong footing.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, —, they're Organizations: Employers, Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Challenger, Atlanta Fed

☆ The Fed is done cutting rates this year as the 'phantom recession' is finally dead, market vet says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed is done cutting interest rates for the rest of the year, according to Ed Yardeni. Fears of a recession have been almost completely eliminated, the market vet said in a note. The no-show Fed-triggered recession will remain a no-show, especially now that the Fed has started to lower the FFR even though it isn't warranted by the performance of the economy," Yardeni wrote. I think it broadens out from the Magnificent Seven to the S&P 493," Yardeni added, speaking to Bloomberg on Monday. "We're going to have another quarter where I think earnings will go to a record-high in the third quarter."

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, —, landers, they're Organizations: Service, Reserve, Yardeni, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Services, Institution of Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Bloomberg, Investor

☆ Falling home prices and fed-up residents show the Texas housing boom is slowing
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

The Texas housing market has cooled after a frenzy of activity during the pandemic. The shift in attitudes is an indicator for the state's housing market, which boomed during the pandemic. Median home prices in Texas have fallen around 7% from their highs in mid-2022, according to data from Redfin. The decline is an outlier compared to the broader US housing market, which is still prices hovering around record highs. But those issues are minor relative to things like economic growth and housing affordability, Fairweather says, which she described as two of the biggest factors that could determine if the Texas housing market picks back up.

Persons: Austin, —, Peter Hoholick, Roe, Wade, Hoholick, it's, James Willoughby, Willoughby, he's, Redfin, William Wheeler, Price, Daryl Fairweather, " Fairweather, Fairweather, they're, Samuel Cobb, couldn't, Cobb, hasn't, We're Organizations: Lone Star, Service, Texas —, Lone Star State, realtors, Texas, Census Bureau, . Texas realtors, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BI Locations: Texas, Austin, California, Dallas, Amarillo, Florida , Texas, LendingTree, Fort Worth, Arlington, East Texas

☆ Russia is facing a 'time bomb' at the heart of its economy, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia is breaking down institutions and "borrowing from the future," Konstantin Sonin says. The economist notes Russia is taking measures to exert more control over its economy. But those actions are hurting Moscow's economic future, Sonin said. Konstantin Sonin, a professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, said he foresaw a dark economic future ahead for Russia. Putin's war not only imposes on today's Russians a worse life than they otherwise would have had.

Persons: Konstantin Sonin, Sonin, — Organizations: Service, University of Chicago Harris School of Public, Syndicate, Heineken, International Monetary Fund Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Moscow

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