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Dollar licks wounds as China data looms
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The euro , which jumped 2.4% last week to a 16-month high, held just below that peak at $1.1228. The yen , also up 2.4% last week, held at 138.69 per dollar. "The FX market is front running possible normalisation of Fed policy in 2024," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone in Melbourne. "The question then is whether the dollar sell-off has gone too far and we are at risk of mean reversion early this week." The Swedish and Norwegian crowns made gains of more than 5% on the dollar last week.
Persons: Chris Weston, Sharp, Jane Foley, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes Organizations: SYDNEY, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Pepperstone, U.S, New Zealand, dovish Bank of Japan, ECB, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, Melbourne, Asia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession risks are 'very prevalent' in the euro zone right now, strategist saysJane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, discusses Europe's economic outlook for the rest of the year.
Persons: Jane Foley Organizations: Rabobank
An old British £1 note is pictured with a one Dollar bill note on January 07, 2023 in Bath, England. U.S. inflation data is due later on Wednesday, with expectations core consumer prices rose 5% on an annual basis in June. The figures should also provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve's progress in its fight against inflation. "We're already seeing markets move in anticipation of a softer U.S. inflation report," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. "Speculation of a possible tweak could allow the yen some support ahead of the BOJ meeting this month."
Persons: BoE, Matt Simpson, Simpson, YCC, Jane Foley, that's, Susan Kilsby Organizations: Bank of England, U.S ., Fed, Bank of Japan, Rabobank, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, ANZ Locations: Bath, England, U.S, Tuesday's, Asia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Dollar slumps ahead of US inflation data, sterling rises
  + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
"The (RBNZ) statement and minutes retained their dovish undertone overall, but they can't not warn that inflation is still 'too high' as they need to contain inflation expectations," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. The broader market focus remained on U.S. inflation data due later on Wednesday, with expectations for core consumer prices to have risen 5% on an annual basis in June. "We're already seeing markets move in anticipation of a softer U.S. inflation report," said City Index's Simpson. U.S. Treasury yields came under pressure on Wednesday, with the two-year yield and benchmark 10-year yield settling below 5% and 4%, respectively. "Speculation of a possible tweak could allow the (yen) some support ahead of the BOJ meeting this month."
Persons: BoE, Matt Simpson, we've, Index's Simpson, Sterling, YCC, Jane Foley, Rae Wee, Jamie Freed, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Bank of England, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S ., Fed, BoE . U.S, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, BoE .
LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The dollar fell slightly on Tuesday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data, while China’s yuan slipped to a six-month low after the central bank lowered a short-term lending rate to boost the economy. That helped push the dollar index, which measures the currency against six peers, down 0.26% to 103.32. The onshore yuan bottomed at 7.168 per dollar, its lowest since last November, and last traded at 7.152. Its offshore counterpart weakened to a new six-month low of 7.178, before paring its losses slightly. The Aussie dollar rose more than 0.4% to its highest since May 11 at $0.679, and was last at $0.678.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jane Foley, “ What’s, ” Foley, Julian Evans, Pritchard, ” Sterling Organizations: LONDON, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Rabobank, Fed, Capital Economics, of England, Bank of Japan Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, China
Dollar dips ahead of U.S. inflation data, central bank meetings
  + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Those expectations kept risk sentiment buoyant, pinning the U.S. dollar near multi-week lows against the risk-sensitive Australia and New Zealand dollars. The euro gained 0.04% to $1.0760, with traders also focused on Thursday's interest rate decision from the European Central Bank, following its policy meeting. The U.S. dollar index edged marginally higher to 103.59, after falling to 103.24 on Monday, its lowest since May 23. "The central bank will likely continue to send a dovish message or one of no intention of policy change until it changes direction." In Asia, China's central bank cut its seven-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 1.90% from 2.00% on Tuesday, sending the yuan falling in the offshore market.
Persons: Joseph Capurso, Jane Foley, Chong Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Labor Department's CPI, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of England, European Central Bank, ECB, Rabobank, Bank of Japan, Standard Chartered Bank Korea Locations: Australia, New Zealand, Korea, Japan, Asia
Those expectations kept risk sentiment buoyant, pinning the U.S. dollar near multi-week lows against the risk-sensitive Australia and New Zealand dollars. The euro gained 0.04% to $1.0760, with traders also focused on Thursday's interest rate decision from the European Central Bank, following its policy meeting. The U.S. dollar index edged marginally higher to 103.59, after falling to 103.24 on Monday, its lowest since May 23. "The central bank will likely continue to send a dovish message or one of no intention of policy change until it changes direction." In Asia, China's central bank cut its seven-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 1.90% from 2.00% on Tuesday, sending the yuan falling in the offshore market .
Persons: Joseph Capurso, Jane Foley, Chong, Rae Wee, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Labor Department's CPI, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of England, European Central Bank, ECB, Rabobank, Bank of Japan, Standard Chartered Bank Korea, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Australia, New Zealand, Korea, Japan, Asia
NEW YORK, June 7 (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher against the yen on Wednesday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data for May and the Fed’s interest rate decision next week, while the Canadian dollar jumped after the Bank of Canada hiked rates. (USCPI=ECI)"We expect a fair degree of consolidation ahead of the Fed decision next week," said Bipan Rai, North American head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto. "That CPI number’s going to be critical for the Fed decision as well. Traders have also priced out most expectations that the Fed will cut rates this year as inflation remains above target. Australia's central bank chief on Wednesday stepped up a warning of more rate hikes ahead to temper rising price pressures.
Persons: Bipan Rai, Jane Foley, they’ll, Lou Brien, Amanda Cooper, Sharon Singleton, Emelia, Nick Macfie Organizations: YORK, Canadian, Bank of Canada, CIBC Capital Markets, Traders, Rabobank, U.S, Fed, ECB, Reserve Bank of, Thomson Locations: U.S, North American, Toronto, Canada, Australia, Chicago, Reserve Bank of Australia, London
Dollar eases as chances for a U.S. rate rise ebb
  + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
LONDON, June 7 (Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Wednesday as chances faded for a rate hike next week by the Federal Reserve, while the Canadian dollar touched one-month highs as traders amped up bets for the country to raise rates and the Turkish lira hit record lows. "Over the last month or so, we've seen the market slowly pricing out the risks of a 2023 interest rate cut. Nonetheless, traders were attaching a higher chance that the BoC would raise Canadian interest rates again later on Wednesday. Against the dollar, sterling rose 0.3% to $1.2456, while the Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 139.40 and the euro rose 0.2% to $1.0718. Elsewhere, the Turkish lira slid as much as 7.6% to a record low of 23.16 per U.S. dollar.
Persons: Philip Lowe, Jane Foley, we've, Foley, Siong Sim, bitcoin, Coinbase, Binance, Zhao, Binance's, Rae Wee, Clarence Fernandez, William Maclean Organizations: Federal Reserve, Australian, Reserve Bank, U.S ., Rabobank, BoC, U.S, Canadian, Fed, Bank of Singapore, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Thomson Locations: U.S, CHINA, China, Turkish, Singapore
[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The yen strengthened on news of the meeting, and held onto those gains, with the dollar last down 0.2% at 140.16 yen having earlier risen as high as 140.93, its highest since November 2022. That helped the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, hit 104.53 in European trading its highest in 10 weeks, though then retreated to 104.02. "It seems to be win-win on almost any scenario for the dollar right now," said Jane Foley head of FX strategy at Rabobank. That, alongside a rethinking of market positioning - people had been dumping a lot of long dollar positioning since the end of last year - was supporting the dollar, she said.
[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON/SINGAPORE, May 30 (Reuters) - The yen strengthened on Tuesday on news of a meeting of Japan's finance ministry and central bank, while elsewhere the dollar rose to a two-month high against a basket of its peers after the U.S. debt ceiling deal. The dollar was last down 0.18% against the Japanese yen at 140.18 after the country's finance ministry said senior officials from the Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan and Financial Services Agency will meet from 5:30 p.m. (0830 GMT). Japanese central bank policy has been a major focus for investors in the past year after the BOJ last year intervened to strengthen the yen. Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research for FX and rates at Societe Generale, said FX intervention at current levels was unlikely.
SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - The dollar rose on Wednesday, benefiting from its status as a safe-haven amid the risk of a U.S. debt default and as traders trimmed bets on imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts following solid consumer spending data in the United States. Against a basket of peers, including the euro, yen and sterling, the dollar index rose 0.3% to 102.96, to its highest since early April. Expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts any time soon were dampened by the solid increase in April consumer spending, and by comments from Fed officials. "A rate hike is possible this year, though the hurdle is high." The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady at $0.6232, with investors looking ahead to a 25 bp interest rate hike next week and perhaps one more after that.
U.S. debt drama and data hoist dollar
  + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar hit a two-week peak of 136.69 yen overnight and hovered just below that at 136.54 in the Asia day. Expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts any time soon were dampened by the solid increase in April consumer spending, and by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. "We expect some modest further increases in the dollar as markets continue to take out pricing for rate cuts," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso. "A rate hike is possible this year, though the hurdle is high." The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady at $0.6244, with investors looking ahead to a 25 bp interest rate hike next week and perhaps one more after that.
Data and debt ceiling hoist dollar
  + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Data showed U.S. consumer spending appeared to have increased solidly in April, which together with hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials weighed on bonds and against expectations that interest rate cuts are coming soon. Interest rate futures pricing implies no chance of a rate cut in June, down from about a 17% chance seen a month ago. "Market participants continue to lower pricing for near term rate cuts by the FOMC," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso. "We expect some modest further increases in the dollar as markets continue to take out pricing for rate cuts. The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady at $0.6239, with investors looking ahead to a 25 bp interest rate next week and perhaps one more after that.
[1/2] British Pound and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six main peers, was down 0.14% at 102.29, having reached 102.75 in early trading on Monday, its highest since April 10. "With all of that, do you really want to buy a lot of risky assets this year?" The weak Chinese data was also weighing on the Australian dollar which dropped as much as 0.5% to $0.6665. The dollar also gained on China's offshore yuan , rising to as much as 6.981, its highest since March 10.
[1/2] British Pound and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. Broader factors are also weighing on the pound as well, said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank: "A lot of the better news for sterling is already in the price. "With all of that, do you really want to buy a lot of risky assets this year?" The weak Chinese data was also weighing on the Australian dollar which dropped as much as 0.5% to $0.6665. The dollar also gained on China's offshore yuan , rising to as much as 6.9795, its highest since March 10.
U.S. Labor Department data showed April inflation cooled to 4.9%, the smallest year-over-year increase in two years. However, so-called core inflation remained sticky at 5.5%, suggesting interest rates may need to stay high for some time to tame it. "The U.S. dollar did soften modestly on the news that core U.S. CPI inflation edges a little lower in April. Economists polled by Reuters expected core U.S. consumer prices to rise 5.5% on a year-on-year basis for April. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a pause before expected rate cuts in September.
SINGAPORE, May 9 (Reuters) - The dollar clung to modest gains against major currencies on Tuesday but remained rangebound as traders awaited U.S. debt ceiling talks and tried to digest how a host of conflicting economic data will influence monetary policy and global growth. Closely-watched U.S. inflation data due on Wednesday is likely to set the tone for markets, after stronger-than-expected jobs data last week. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index edged up 0.25% to 101.68, but remained near recent lows as traders eye a peak in U.S. rates. Sterling was broadly flat and bought $1.2599, ahead of Thursday's central bank policy meeting. ========================================================Currency bid prices at 10:18AM (1418 GMT)Reporting by Rae Wee Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher on Monday after the April survey of business activity in New York state rose for the first time in five months and bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in May. The new orders index rose 47 points to 25.1, while the shipments index added 37 points to 23.9, substantial increases after they had declined in recent months, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. "It's the best reading since last July with a big jump in orders and has taken the dollar higher on this," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. The outlook of U.S. interest rates relative to the monetary policies and economies of other countries can boost or erode the dollar's value. The Mexican peso lost 0.51% versus the dollar to trade at 18.12, while the Canadian dollar fell 0.31% versus the greenback to 1.34 per dollar.
SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed to a one-month high against Japan's yen on Monday as traders eyed up another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, while the Bank of Japan stuck to its easy money policies. Expectations of higher interest rates relative to global peers tend to boost a currency by making investments there look more attractive, and vice versa. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, pricing in derivatives markets shows traders think there's a roughly 84% chance the Fed will hike rates again by 25 basis points in May, up from around 69% last week . It hit a one-year high of $1.108 on Friday, with traders expecting further interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank even as the Fed nears a pause. Foley expects one more 25 basis point rate hike from the Fed in May before it holds rates steady for the rest of the year.
The euro was up 0.52% at $1.0918 and the pound rose a similar amount to $1.2439 as most European markets returned from the long Easter weekend. "Bank earnings will also be important, they don't often reach across to FX markets directly, but they might, given the recent jitters," Foley added. Tuesday's moves were also affected by European markets' reopening after the break, said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe, given the limited liquidity on Friday and Monday with most European markets closed. He said algorithms trading currencies based on the difference between European and U.S. rates might have sold euros for dollars when U.S. Treasury yields rose after the jobs data while European bond markets were closed. European bond yields rose sharply on Tuesday, catching up after the break.
The euro was up 0.4% at $1.0903 and the pound was up 0.5% at $1.2439 as most European markets returned from the long Easter weekend. "Bank earnings will also be important, they don't often reach across to FX markets directly, but they might given the recent jitters," Foley added. Tuesday's moves were also affected by European markets' reopening after the break, said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe, given the limited liquidity on Friday and Monday with most European markets closed. He said algorithms trading currencies based on the difference between European and U.S. rates might have sold euros for dollars when U.S. Treasury yields rose after the jobs data while European bond markets were closed. European bond yields rose sharply on Tuesday catching up after the break.
Dollar soothed by uneasy market calm
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six peers, was flat at 102.42, giving up small gains of up to 0.3% in the European morning. It has fallen for the past two sessions, and is set for a 2.1% monthly fall, a victim of the market ructions induced by problems in the banking industry. "We have returned to a sense of calm right now, but I don't think it's all over. The dollar touched a one-week high on the yen and was last up 0.7% to 131.85 yen , while the euro gained 0.7% against the yen to 143. The dollar had dropped 0.5% against the yen the previous day, when it uncharacteristically moved in the opposite direction to long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which have been rising as calm returns to markets.
The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six peers, gained 0.15% to 102.64. It has fallen for the past two sessions, and is set for a 2.1% monthly fall, a victim of the market ructions induced by problems in the banking industry. The dollar touched a one week high and was last up 0.8% to 131.99 yen , while the euro gained 0.6% against the yen to 142.9. The dollar had dropped 0.5% against the yen the previous day, when it uncharacteristically moved in the opposite direction to long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which have been rising as calm returns to markets. Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Jamie Freed and Angus MacSwanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) - The health of the global banking sector as interest rates rise remained in the spotlight on Tuesday in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). But days of wild swings in global markets and hefty losses in bank shares, left the outlook for the sector in focus. Banks are now faced with the classic problem that has threatened banks throughout history: a mismatch in terms between assets and liabilities." Hopefully we'll go over the next few days, whether or not the financial system is going to calm down or not. "It’s been an indiscriminate sell off in banking stocks, the financial sector repriced everywhere.
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