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☆ Strong U.S. jobs, wages growth expected in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

However, job growth would far exceed the pace needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population, comfortably in the 150,000-300,000 range that economists associate with tight labor markets. Household employment decreased in October and November, leading some economists to speculate that overall job growth was overstated. Yet the household survey tends to be volatile and most economists expect household employment would be revised toward nonfarm payrolls. "We would not be surprised to see an even larger rebound in household employment in December or over the coming months." But the trend in employment growth could slow significantly by mid-year.

On the heels of Tuesday's lower-than-expected inflation reading, the Federal Reserve is expected to tap the brakes Wednesday on its aggressive rate-raising plan designed to cool price growth in the U.S. economy. In addition to the slower price growth, layoff announcements are mounting. Notably, demand for bonds has increased, reflecting growing interest in more stable returns that are often correlated with slower economic growth. Out with inflation worries, in with recession fearsKey stock market gauges, meanwhile, continue to decline on concerns about flagging corporate earnings. If it was still worried about inflation, then interest rates, energy and banks would all be higher.

The tech industry accounts for about one-quarter of this year's job cuts, Challenger data show. The automotive industry has had 30,669 job cuts announced, compared with 10,277 through November 2021. And real estate has had 7,919 cuts announced this year, compared with 2,762 in 2021 year-to-date. "We've seen a lot of job cuts around mortgage origination and fintech firms in mortgages. U.S.-based employers announced 76,835 cuts in November alone, more than double the 33,843 cuts announced in October and four-times the number of cuts announced last November, Challenger data show.

"Adding to the Fed's problems, monetary conditions have loosened in recent weeks as the dollar and longer-dated Treasury yields have fallen and credit spreads have narrowed. This is undoing the tightening effects of the Fed's recent rate rises." Investors now see an 87% chance that the Fed will increase interest rates by 50 basis points in December, down from 91% before the jobs data was published on Friday. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 5.14-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 3.09-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 15 new highs and 40 new lows.

☆ Inflation could fall back to the Fed's 2% target quicker than the market expects as housing prices are primed for a 20% decline, chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Home prices could crash 20% as housing supply begins to rise, according to ING Economics. But a silver lining of such a steep decline in home prices is that inflation would fall quicker than expected. A decline in home prices could already be seen in the S&P Case Shiller data, which saw a 1.3% month-over-month decline in home prices in August. The housing market hasn't experienced a back-to-back monthly decline in home prices since early 2012. Driving the housing price decline is a number of factors, according to Knightley, including higher mortgage rates, rising supply of homes for sale, and waning demand.

☆ Fed to take rates higher than previously expected; more pain ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But that is unlikely to push the Fed to switch its policy path anytime soon as Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers have remained blunt about the “pain” to come. The survey predicted that would be followed by 50 basis points in December to end the year at 4.25%-4.50%. The real policy mistake is not bringing inflation back down to 2%,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at BofA Securities. All but two of 51 economists who replied to an additional question said the risks were skewed towards a higher terminal rate than they currently expected. “The only way the Fed can do that is to hike rates and keep policy restrictive until that is achieved.”(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:)

☆ Fed to take rates higher than previously expected; more pain ahead - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Fed to take rates higher than previously expected; more pain ahead: Reuters Poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The survey predicted that would be followed by 50 basis points in December to end the year at 4.25%-4.50%. All but two of 51 economists who replied to an additional question said the risks were skewed towards a higher terminal rate than they currently expected. "The short-run pain of recession would be better than the long-run pain of inflation expectations becoming unanchored." Also, unlike most major central banks, the Fed has backing from a strong currency and a relatively strong economy compared with its peers. "The only way the Fed can do that is to hike rates and keep policy restrictive until that is achieved."

☆ Confidence in UK assets on thin ice, investors warn - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Slightly more than half - 55% - of the international banks and research consultancies polled by Reuters last week said there was a high risk confidence in British assets would deteriorate sharply in the coming three months. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterFifteen out of 29 respondents said the risk was high, including three primary dealers of British government bonds. These shifts in part reflect investors' worry that Britain's reliance on imported energy will leave it exposed to higher inflation for longer. "But the new, inexperienced government faces great challenges and could easily make missteps which add to investors' concerns." "If higher inflation becomes a more structural phenomenon... yields could also turn out to be structurally higher," Rabobank's Bas Van Geffen said.

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