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Lilly's shares are up more than 7% on the news. LLY YTD mountain Eli Lilly shares year to date. The first followed positive reports from rivals that showed they were making progress in developing their own weight loss drugs . However, sales rose 59% for Mounjaro quarter over quarter and were up 140% for Zepbound as Lilly saw better pricing. Meanwhile, analysts see several events on the horizon that could further boost Lilly's shares in coming months.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Bansal, Lilly, Carter Gould, Lilly's headwinds, Novo's, Wells Fargo's Bansal, Evan David Seigerman, Chris Schott, Schott, Lilly's Organizations: Novo Nordisk, Wells, Barclays, Nordisk, BMO Capital Markets, Food and Drug Administration Locations: Wells Fargo, Lilly's, Wednesday's
Financial-services firms risk the wrath of the Securities and Exchange Commission if their employees make campaign contributions to state or local officials such as Walz. Donating to the campaign would violate the regulator's "pay-to-play" rule, which keeps firms from trying to sway politicians for favors such as managing their state's pension fund. Those employees are also required to get permission to donate to the Harris-Walz campaign. It is possible to sidestep the pay-to-play rule by donating to PACs or Super PACs that aren't directly tied to the relevant candidate. "The Pay-to-Play Rule, although well-intentioned, imposes unique, unquantifiable costs on individuals by impeding their ability to participate in the political process."
Persons: , Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, Walz, Harris, Donald Trump's, Wells, Mike Pence, Pershing, Patricia Crouse, Crouse, aren't, Hester Peirce Organizations: Service, Street, for Responsive, Democrat, Minnesota Gov, Financial, Securities and Exchange Commission, Business, Citigroup, Citi, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Trump, Pershing, SEC, University of New Locations: Wells Fargo, Indiana, Massachusetts, Tallahassee , Florida, University of New Haven
JPMorgan raises 2024 recession odds to 35%
  + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The bank raised its probability for a U.S. or global recession to 35% by year end, chief global economist Bruce Kasman told clients in a Wednesday note. Meanwhile, JPMorgan kept its odds for a recessionary period by the second half of 2025 at 45%. But traders got better news on the labor market front on Thursday, with the volume of weekly jobless claims coming in lower than economists expected. To be sure, despite raising his odds, Kasman said investors should not assume all signs point to a recession. In fact, Kasman described his increase to near-term recession risk as modest.
Persons: Bruce Kasman, Kasman, Goldman Sachs Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal, Fed Locations: U.S
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is eyeing a potential interest rate cut in September. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon thinks those two events aren't as significant as many think. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy .
Persons: Jamie Dimon, , CNBC's Organizations: Federal, JPMorgan, Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Business
Consumers and small businesses sent $806 billion across 2.9 billion Zelle transactions in 2023, both up 28% from 2022. Consumers reported losing $210 million to scams across all payment apps in 2023, according to data from the Federal Trade Commission. The new bill aims to amend the law to make banks more liable for all financial transactions, whether they're authorized or unauthorized. AdvertisementOver 99.95% of all Zelle transactions in 2023 were completed without instances of fraud, according to Zelle. In the meantime, the Protecting Consumers from Payment Scams Act will go to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs for review.
Persons: , JPMorgan Chase, PayPal —, Maxine Waters, Sen, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, Waters, Zelle, Blumenthal, Wells Fargo, Wells, Cameron Fowler Organizations: Service, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Business, PayPal, Consumers, Federal Trade Commission, Rep, Homeland Security, Governmental Affairs, Investigations, Blumenthal, Services, Warning Services, SEC, Consumer Financial, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs Locations: Zelle, Wells Fargo, jtowfighi@businessinsider.com
Jamie Dimon says he still sees a recession on the horizon
  + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes that the odds of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind. When CNBC's Leslie Picker asked Dimon if he had changed his view from February that markets were too optimistic on recession risks, he said the odds were "about the same" as his earlier call. Dimon, leader of the biggest U.S. bank by assets and one of the most respected voices on Wall Street, has warned of an economic "hurricane" since 2022. But the economy has held up better than he expected, and Dimon said Wednesday that while credit-card borrower defaults are rising, America is not in a recession right now. "I'm fully optimistic that if we have a mild recession, even a harder one, we would be okay.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, CNBC's Leslie Picker, Dimon, I've Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S, America
Novo Nordisk shocked investors on Wednesday when its latest results fell short of Wall Street's expectations. While Eli Lilly's stock remains up about 32% year to date, concerns about increasing competition in the category have resulted in a nearly 16% decline for Lilly shares over the past month. Eli Lilly is making similar attempts with Zepbound, but its launch is at an earlier stage than Wegovy. Second-quarter sales of Ozempic, Novo's diabetes treatment, rose 4% from the first quarter, while Wegovy revenue grew 24% quarter over quarter. Barclays analyst Emily Field told clients in a research note that she would be a buyer of Novo Nordisk shares on the weakness.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Eli, Lilly, Wells, Mohit Bansal, Ozempic, Bansal, Emily Field, David Song, Song, Chris Schott, Schott Organizations: Novo Nordisk, LSEG, Lilly's, Management, Food and Drug Administration, Barclays, Tema, JPMorgan Locations: Wells Fargo, IQVIA, Amgen, MariTide, Novo, CagriSema
When you hear commentators talking this week about the “yen carry trade” or the “great unwind,” they’re referring to a popular trading strategy that is, suddenly, blowing up in investors’ faces. The carry trade, explainedPut simply: A carry trade is when you borrow money in a place where interest rates are low and use it to invest elsewhere in assets that generate some kind of return. “That is bonkers.”The yen carry trade proved especially popular in the last four years, because Japan was the only major economy in the world offering essentially free money. The carry trade relies on borrowing, which means it’s a leveraged position. “The carry trade unwind… is somewhere between 50%-60% complete.”In other words: Buckle up, and don’t panic.
Persons: CNN Business ’, , John Authers, , it’s, John Sedunov, Kit Juckes, ” Sedunov, Arindam Sandilya, JPMorgan Chase, Buckle Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wall, ” Bloomberg, Treasury, Villanova School of Business, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale, JPMorgan, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Japan, Europe
Markets around the world are getting some relief after the steep declines suffered Monday. Japan's Nikkei 225 surged more than 10% overnight — its biggest one-day gain since 2008 — clawing back some of its losses from the previous session. In the U.S., stock futures pointed to slight gains at the open. It might be an easier call if it was October, but we frankly struggle to think of many markets that have put in their corrective lows in early-August," Verrone wrote. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) , Wall Street's preferred fear gauge, remained elevated around 32, though it was down 16% in morning trade.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Trump, Thomas Salopek, Chris Verrone, Verrone, Wall Street's Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, Dow Jones Industrial, Taiwan Semiconductor Locations: U.S, Coinbase
The S & P 500 was higher Tuesday, one day after the broad market index posted its worst day in nearly two years amid revived fears of a recession. The current pullback has all the hallmarks of a market correction, the strategist said. So, don't rush to try to catch a falling knife," Malek said. The S & P 500 on Tuesday traded about 7% below a record high reached last month. Besides, he said, it is hard to think of a market correction occurring in August, when a bottom is historically more likely to happen in the month of October.
Persons: Thomas Salopek, Salopek, Mark Malek, Siebert, Malek, CFRA's Sam Stovall, Stovall, Strategas, Chris Verrone, Verrone Organizations: Nasdaq, JPMorgan
The unwinding of the carry trade that's battered stocks in recent days isn't done, JPMorgan says. It says that trade is probably only half over, as Japan looks poised to continue raising rates. AdvertisementThe "carry trade" unwind that helped spark the bloodbath in US stocks over the past few days likely isn't close to over, a JPMorgan strategist says. Market commentators say that's been partly stoked by a surprise 15-basis-point interest-rate hike in Japan, which triggered some investors to unwind a trade that's become popular in recent years. In this trade, investors borrow cheap yen and deploy the cash into higher-yielding assets elsewhere, like US stocks.
Persons: , Arindam Sandilya, that's, Sandilya Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, FX, Bloomberg, Bank of Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan
CNBC Daily Open: Dow sheds 1,000 points
  + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Abid Ali | Kevin Lim | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Wall Street sinksThe Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 suffered their sharpest declines in nearly two years, as growing concerns about the U.S. economy rocked global stock markets. The Dow plummeted over 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 3% and 3.4%, respectively. Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel urged the Federal Reserve to make an emergency 75-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate following Friday's disappointing jobs data. [PRO] Don't panicDespite a global stock market rout, several investors and strategists advised against panicking at this point.
Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, Amit Mehta, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, CNBC's, cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, bitcoin, Nexo, Antoni Trenchev, panicking Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Nasdaq, Tech, Nvidia, Tesla, Berkshire, Google, Department of Justice, Federal Reserve, Chicago Federal, bitcoin Locations: U.S
Here are Tuesday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Stifel initiates GE Healthcare as buy Stifel said it's bullish on shares of the GE spin-off. Rosenblatt reiterates Nvidia as buy Rosenblatt said concerns about delays in the company's Blackwell chip are overdone. " JPMorgan downgrades Carlyle Group to neutral from overweight JPMorgan said it sees better value elsewhere. Morgan Stanley reiterates Apple as overweight Morgan Stanley said Monday's DOJ ruling on Alphabet is a negative for Apple. JPMorgan upgrades Sonic Automotive to overweight from neutral JPMorgan said investors should buy the dip in the auto company.
Persons: Stifel, it's, Morgan Stanley, Rosenblatt, Blackwell, JPMorgan, Carlyle, Piper Sandler, Piper, Palantir, KeyBanc, D.A, Davidson, Apple, GOOGL, SAH, underperform Macquarie Organizations: GE Healthcare, GE, Taiwan Semiconductor, JPMorgan, Barclays, Nvidia, Blackwell, Royal, JPMorgan downgrades Carlyle Group, Bank of America, Artificial Intelligence, Micron, Apollo, of America, Apollo Global Management, APO, Meta, Retail Media, DOJ, Apple, Aspen, Sonic Automotive, SS, UBS, Walmart, Northland, Honest, Honest Company, Macquarie, underperform Locations: Royal Caribbean, GOOGL, EVs, China
Kelly says the Fed needs to broadcast its confidence in the economy to soothe jittery markets. JPMorgan's David Kelly told Business Insider he sees a possibility for even deeper losses following the big rout. We do stand ready to cut rates as appropriate but we don't think there's a very urgent situation here," Kelly said. More importantly, cutting rates abruptly would potentially instill more fear about the economy among investors, Kelly said. And I don't think the Federal Reserve tells people that, or maybe they don't appreciate it themselves," Kelly said, adding, "It's a drag before it's a stimulus."
Persons: Kelly, JPMorgan's David Kelly, , David Kelly, Monday's, we've, Dow Jones Organizations: Fed, Service, JPMorgan Asset Management, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Reserve Locations: Japan
Why the stock market is freaking out again
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( David Goldman | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The Dow tumbled more than 1,000 points at the open, and the broader market plunged 3% Monday. The Nasdaq, full of risky tech stocks, dropped 3.7%. Although that’s not in and of itself an unhealthy unemployment rate, its sudden march higher is alarming: Last year, the unemployment rate was at its lowest level since the moon landing. Traders are beginning to unwind big trades on Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and other tech stocks that had been surging since the beginning of last year. Monday’s rout, if it ends at current levels, wouldn’t even crack the top 100 worst days in market history.
Persons: Dow, that’s, Goldman Sachs, That’s, Jeremy Siegel, , , Siegel, Stocks, it’ll, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: CNN, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Citigroup, JPMorgan, CNBC, Traders, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Berkshire Locations: Wall
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Jason Hunter says there are no signs of a 'tactical bottom' in the markets yetJason Hunter, JPMorgan head of technical strategy, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss technicals of the market sell-off as the Nasdaq 100 hit his downside target zone but shows no signs of a 'tactical bottom.'
Persons: Jason Hunter, JPMorgan Organizations: Nasdaq
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDow tumbles more than 1,000 points, S&P 500 sees worst day in two yearsDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist and Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: David Kelly, Scott Wren Organizations: Dow, JPMorgan Asset Management, Fargo Investment Institute Locations: Fargo
Three years ago, JPMorgan Chase became the first bank with a branch in all 48 contiguous states. "We're still at very low single-digit branch share, and we know that in order for us to really optimize our investment in these communities, we need to be at a higher branch share," Roberts said in an interview with CNBC. Wells Fargo and Bank of America closed the highest net number of branches, while JPMorgan was the most active net opener. According to FDIC research collated by KBW, growth in bank branches peaked right before the financial crisis, in 2007. When it comes to prioritizing locations for new branches, Roberts said it's a "balance of art and science."
Persons: JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Dimon's, Dimon, Jennifer Roberts, We're, Roberts, Wells, KBW, it's Organizations: JPMorgan, Chase Consumer Banking, CNBC, Midwest, P Global Market Intelligence, Bank of America Locations: Iowa, Minnesota , Nebraska , Missouri , Kansas, Arkansas, U.S, Wells Fargo
The Federal Reserve is catching some heat for the historic stock market plunge. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is to blame for the historic stock market plunge since last week, according to a growing chorus of market experts. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said in a Monday note that the lack of Fed rate cuts in the first half of the year will weigh on economic growth in the second half, and that any coming interest rate cuts from the Fed likely won't be enough. AdvertisementRegardless of what the Fed's motivation might be with waiting until September to cut interest rates, the market is taking away a pretty clear message. "There is growing sentiment is that the Fed has waited too long to cut interest rates and is now behind the curve," Comerica Wealth Management CIO John Lynch said.
Persons: , Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Jerome Powell, Powell, they've, we're, Kamala Harris, Mislav Matejka, Matejka, Paul Volcker, Volcker, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, John Lynch Organizations: Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, CNBC, Washington DC, JPMorgan, Fed, Comerica Wealth Management Locations: Iran, Japan, Washington
More than 70 S & P 500 names are slated to report this week, including Disney and Caterpillar . Tuesday Uber Technologies is set to report earnings before the bell. This quarter: The ride-hailing giant is expected to report a 70% year-over-year increase in earnings, LSEG data shows. What history shows: Uber has beaten earnings expectations in six of the last seven quarters, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group. Wednesday Walt Disney is set to report earnings before the open.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Benjamin Black, Uber, Walt Disney, Wells, Steven Cahall, LLY, Eli Lilly's Organizations: Disney, Caterpillar . Pharmaceutical, behemoth, CNBC, Technologies, Investors, Autonomous Vehicle, Deutsche Bank, Investment, Caterpillar, JPMorgan Locations: California
The Federal Reserve now has egg on its face after it kept interest rates near a quarter-century high earlier this week. By now, there’s ample evidence that the job market, a key driver of the US economy, has lost steam. Here are three reasons to be worried about July’s shockingly weak jobs report — and one silver lining. Consumer demand itself also hasn’t weakened just yet, despite the highest interest rates in more than two decades. Generally, the Fed makes its decision congruent with what’s going on with inflation or the job market.
Persons: , July’s, , , Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Elizabeth Crofoot, Alicia Wallace, Jerome Powell, ” Crofoot, ” Michael Gapen, Matt Egan, weren’t, ” Truist’s Keith Lerner, they’ll, hasn’t, ” Chris Rupkey, Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Investors, Labor, Citigroup, JPMorgan Locations: New York, decelerate, American
Here are JPMorgan's top stock picks for August
  + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Some stocks have been added and others on this month's list. EQT Corp. has been added, while Arista Networks and Coherent Corp. – two names on last month's list – have been removed. Here are some of JPMorgan's top picks for August: EQT was named as part of the bank's value strategy. Of consumer stocks, McDonald's is also viewed as a value play, with shares of the fast-food chain down 7% this year. For growth stocks, Amazon made the cut.
Persons: EQT, McDonald's, Joe Erlinger, Brian Olsavsky, Donald Trump, Olsavsky, Eli Lilly –, Organizations: JPMorgan, Dow Jones, EQT Corp, Arista Networks, Amazon, Paris, Microsoft Locations: EQT, McDonald's U.S
The data also points a spotlight on the economic platform of Vice President Kamala Harris, who is poised to accept the Democratic presidential nomination this month amid signs of a slowing economy. But her economic views are less defined, maintaining broad references to strengthening the middle class, even as her record investigating Wall Street and her farther-left 2019 primary campaign platform have executives and investors on edge. According to those close to Harris, advisers and administration officials, Harris’ economic views were described as “pragmatic,” “centrist,” and even “pro-business,” with a goal of leveraging private-sector friendships for better outcomes at the ground level. Personnel as policyHarris has two staffers who manage economic and domestic policy issues, and she was briefed by staff on the most recent jobs data. “He is as close to Harris and the second gentleman as almost anyone in the administration,” said an official close to Harris.
Persons: Harris, Kamala Harris, , Mike Pyle, Don Graves, David Turk, Wally Adeyemo, Janet Yellen, Pyle, Brian Deese, Rohini Kosoglu –, Brian Nelson, Nelson’s, Nelson, “ That’s, Jason Furman, Barack Obama, Rohit Chopra, Massachusetts Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Biden, Vermont Sen, Bernie Sanders, , , she’s, Tom Vilsack, Vilsack, Ray McGuire, Lazard, Blair Effron, Jamie Dimon, “ She’s, Lina Khan, Harris “, Lina Organizations: CNN, Biden, Federal Reserve, Democratic, National Security Council, National Economic Council, , Commerce, Energy, Consumer Financial, Bureau, Vermont, Democratic Party, White, Commerce Department, Department of Agriculture, Wall Street, Centerview Partners, JPMorgan Chase, Naval Observatory, Meta, Target, Citigroup, eBay, Federal Trade Commission Locations: Massachusetts, Columbus , Ohio, Syracuse , New York, Georgia, Central America, Columbia, California
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFriday's jobs report makes September cut very likely: JPMorgan’s David KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist; David Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist; Stephanie Roth, Wolfe Research chief economist; and Steve Liesman join 'CNBC's Special' to discuss what Friday's weak job reports suggest, their expectation from the Fed, and more.
Persons: JPMorgan’s David Kelly David Kelly, David Zervos, Stephanie Roth, Wolfe, Steve Liesman Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Jefferies, Wolfe Research
Investors may way to consider buying the dip in Amazon , according to some Wall Street analysts. A 'bright spot' in AWS Despite Thursday's disappointing results, many Wall Street analysts are finding the positive in the company's Amazon Web Services division. Many expect this business to continue gaining steam, with Susquehanna Financial Group's Shyam Patil referring to this acceleration as a "bright spot" in the results. Evercore ISI's Mark Mahaney referred to accelerating AWS growth as one of "three fundamental catalysts" for the stock. Bank of America's Justin Post named the stock the firm's top large cap picks, citing the AWS acceleration and opportunity within artificial intelligence.
Persons: Deutsche Bank's Lee Horowitz, Deutsche Bank's Horowitz, Mark Shmulik, Shyam Patil, Patil, Morgan Stanley's Brian Nowak, Evercore, Mark Mahaney, Bank of America's Justin Post, We're, Doug Anmuth, Anmuth Organizations: Deutsche, Wall, Web Services, Susquehanna, Bank of America's
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