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☆ Stock futures rise slightly ahead of key inflation data and the kickoff of earnings season: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S equity futures rose slightly Sunday evening as investors looked ahead to key inflation data and the start of first-quarter earnings season. Futures tied to the broad market S&P 500 rose 0.2% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged up 62 points, or 0.2%. The market was volatile as economic data showed signs of a weakening labor market. The March jobs report on Friday showed a resilient economy and moderate inflation, however, which pushed stock futures and Treasury yields higher. "It's still probably a toss-up as to whether the Fed hikes by another 25 basis points at its next meeting and stands pat; the next set of inflation data will probably be the deciding factor."

While money funds are not strictly gauranteed or insured, the 85% invested heavily in government securities put up some stark competition for bank deposits that have lagged central bank policy rate rises over the past 18 months - causing much political ire in countries such as Britain. But, in contrast to money funds, the average rate across all of them, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, is still just 0.37%. That's now changing due to safety and insurance fears at smaller banks stateside - as well as the compelling alternative at money funds that appear safer against that backdrop. Of this trillion, half went to government money market funds and the other half to larger banks, they reckoned. Noting that some $7 trillion of U.S. bank deposits remained uninsured, the JPM team concluded: "A FDIC guarantee of all U.S. bank deposits would certainly help, but it might not be enough to completely stop this deposit shift."

☆ First Republic shares fall on fresh liquidity fears as peers rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Medha Singh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

March 20 (Reuters) - Shares of First Republic Bank (FRC.N) slumped 13.1% on Monday, after a report the regional bank could raise more money fanned worries about its liquidity despite a $30 billion rescue last week. Shares of some of the big banks involved in the unprecedented support rose, reversing premarket losses. "Even though First Republic Bank says that they have the financial backing to survive, investors are concerned that they too will have to be taken over," said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede. The S&P 1500 regional banks index (.SPCOMBNKS) added nearly 4%, outperforming S&P 500 banks' (.SPXBK) 2.6% rise. A U.S. official told Reuters on Sunday that the deposit outflows that left many regional banks reeling in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank's failure had slowed and in some cases reversed.

Over the weekend, UBS (UBS.N) agreed to buy rival Credit Suisse for $3.23 billion, in a shotgun merger engineered by Swiss authorities to avoid more market-shaking turmoil in global banking. U.S.-listed shares of Credit Suisse were down 58.4% in premarket trading and set to open at a fresh record low, while those of UBS were down 3.6%, as focus shifted to the hit to some Credit Suisse bondholders from the acquisition. "Investors are still worried about the banking industry, even though UBS has agreed to take over Credit Suisse. Regional bank First Republic Bank (FRC.N) was down 19.1% after paring some declines, while peer Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N) edged 0.7% lower. The S&P Banking index (.SPXBK) and the KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) on Friday logged their largest two-week drop since March 2020.

Two-year Treasury yields hit their highest in three months at 4.65%, now on par with the current Fed policy rate. Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach described the payrolls as a "mood changing" print that's seen markets chase rates higher as if gripped by a sort of reverse FOMO - fear of missing out. Reports circulated last week of swaps and options market activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that bet on market rates touching 6%, or at least hedging against that possibility. If that's true, the battle over the terminal rate may now be overtaken by how long the Fed can keep rates higher to achieve its goals. BofA chart on peak rates from fund manager surveyInflationThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ Stocks up, yields dip after U.S. data with Fed eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Other data showed consumer confidence eased in January, with inflation expectations over the next twelve months climbing to 6.8% from 6.6% last month. Investors will also closely monitor comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell following the announcement for clues on the path of monetary policy. Markets will also grapple with a host of U.S. economic data this week, culminating in Friday's payrolls report for January. Economic data for the euro zone showed slight growth for the fourth quarter, but further weakness is expected this year. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.22% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.20%.

☆ Stocks, euro gain as Fed, ECB rate hike outlooks diverge
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] A new 100-euro banknote is presented at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, September 17, 2018. In Europe, technology firms also spearheaded gains as optimism about Europe likely avoiding a steep recession overshadowed recent hawkish remarks from ECB officials. Investors are waiting for euro zone and U.S. flash PMI data on Tuesday, which are expected to show less severe economic contractions than the previous month, according to analysts polled by Reuters. The difference in expectations for Fed and ECB policy led the euro to hit $1.0927 as it climbs from a two-decade low of $0.953 set in September. Euro zone bonds were little changed, with the benchmark 10-year German yield at 2.209% .

☆ Analysis: China's rapid reopening brings joy and woe for world markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The impact of the reopening of the world's second largest economy on financial markets, hit by double-digit losses last year as inflation and interest rates jumped, is critical. Being touted among the top buying bets on recovery hopes are emerging markets, commodity currencies, oil, travel and European luxury companies. The boost to world growth from China's reopening was expected to hurt the safe-haven dollar but benefit the euro. INFLATION CAUTIONBut a boost from China's reopening raises some concerns about inflation. China is the world's leading importer of oil and many other commodities -- oil prices have risen 10% since mid-December to almost $84 .

"I think that this is going to be the most contentious debt ceiling debate in memory," Winograd said. "It would suggest that there's some type of premium being allocated to bills in that space where the risk of the debt ceiling starts to grow," Norris said. Some investors also believe lawmakers will be able to reach a deal on raising the debt ceiling without severely unsettling markets. Edward Al Hussainy, senior interest rate and currency analyst at Columbia Threadneedle, thinks any debt ceiling tensions would eventually be resolved, calling the issue "a well rehearsed storyline." However, the heightened concerns about the debt ceiling are "an extra little justification on top" for the firm's positioning, Pride said.

☆ Analysis: Investors count on bonds to rescue battered 60/40 portfolio in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A 60/40 portfolio, which typically allocates 60% of assets into stocks and 40% into bonds, counts on moves in the two asset classes to offset one another, with stocks strengthening amid economic optimism and bonds rising during uncertain times. So-called 60/40 portfolios, which mix stocks and bonds, are on place for their first down year since 2018. Though market participants tend to avoid bonds during inflationary times, they are a popular destination for haven-seeking investors when the economy wobbles. Consecutive annual declines in the 60/40 portfolio have been rare. Higher-than-expected borrowing costs or rebounding inflation could deal another blow to investors in both stocks and bonds.

☆ 'People need to temper their expectations': A former top TD Ameritrade technical analyst says stocks have another 19% to fall before bottoming as recession looms and investors wrongly anticipate a Fed
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Year-to-date the S&P 500 is down 17% as the Fed tightens policy to rein in inflation. Bierman is the chief market technician at TheoTrade, and held the same position at TD Ameritrade between 2007-2015. The Fed has been tightening policy this year at the fastest pace in decades in an effort to cool the highest inflation rates since the early 1980s. The second problem is that the US economy is already in a recession, Bierman says. But the number one indicator for Bierman that the US economy is in recession is the yield curve.

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 29, 2022. "From the bigger picture, the Fed has hiked rates to a point where markets are expecting monetary policy to be restrictive enough to cause a mild recession." The CBOE volatility index (.VIX), also known as Wall Street's fear gauge, rose to a two-week high at 23.01 points amid increased investor anxiety. Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) slumped 2.9%, down for a third straight session over production loss worries at its Shanghai plant. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and six new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 25 new highs and 149 new lows.

SummarySummary Companies Apple down, Morgan Stanley cuts Dec shipment estimateCarvana tumbles, Wedbush slashes PT to Street lowFutures down: Dow 0.25%, S&P 0.48%, Nasdaq 0.82%Dec 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stock indexes were set to open lower on Wednesday after warnings of a looming recession from major Wall Street bankers offset optimism around China relaxing its strict zero-COVID rules. Fears of a recession due to the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes to curb inflation pulled the S&P 500 (.SPX) lower for a fourth straight session on Tuesday, with all major Wall Street indexes ending down 1%-2%. "From the bigger picture, the Fed has hiked rates to a point where markets are expecting monetary policy to be restrictive enough to cause a mild recession." The CBOE volatility index (.VIX), also known as Wall Street's fear gauge, rose to a two-week high at 23.01 points amid increased investor anxiety. ET, Dow e-minis were down 85 points, or 0.25%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 19 points, or 0.48%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 94.75 points, or 0.82%.

☆ 'Another bear market rally': $38 billion Glenmede shares 3 reasons why the stock market's recent run is due to fail — including the track record for every bear market since World War II
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Investors hoping that the stock market's rally since mid-October is sustainable are bound for disappointment, according to top investors at wealth management firm Glenmede. The current bear market (highlighted below in green) is 11 months in, and the S&P 500 is down 18% over that time. Glenmede"The current bear market appears to be close to 2/3rds of the way through the typical bear-market decline. The current market appears to be following a similar trajectory of an average historical bear market so far," they said. "We've had a nice little run here in the stock market — it's the third double-digit percentage gain since the bear market started," Doll said.

The major bourses in Europe also declined as concerns mounted about a global slowdown before a raft of major central bank rate decisions next week. The dollar gained against the euro, yen, British pound and Canadian dollar, among other major currencies. Treasury yields fell, but more at the long end of maturities than the short end, which deepened the inverted yield curve, a market indicator of a looming recession. The dollar rose as investors waited for next week's expected 50 basis points rate hike by the Fed. Euro zone government bond yields fell after two European Central Bank officials signaled inflation and rates may be close to peaking in the run-up to a raft of major central bank decisions.

☆ Is the worst over for bitcoin and the rest of crypto?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-04 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

This is not the first crypto winter, as long-term fans of bitcoin can attest. “It is very clear that we as an industry need to build better products,” said Hany Rashwan, CEO of 21.co, a crypto investment firm. That’s about triple where prices were during the depths of the crypto bear market in the early pandemic days of 2020. Others point out that the underlying blockchain technology behind bitcoin and crypto remains solid. Pride and Reynolds added that it’s erroneous to think that bitcoin can hold up well during stock market volatility.

☆ Wall Street experts are warning that stocks are in for more trouble as a robust November jobs report is crushing investor hopes of a dovish Fed
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-03 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Stocks fell on Friday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a robust November jobs report. But with the economy resilient, the Fed could continue to cause more pain for stocks going forward. November's jobs report, however, puts a pin the hopes of those anticipating easier policy sooner. He added: "Chairman Powell's speech earlier in the week was interpreted with a dovish lens, but that spin is likely to be reassessed based on the jobs report. Even before Friday's jobs report, some Wall Street strategists and money managers have been warning of further trouble ahead.

☆ Consumer will keep spending, they just won't buy as much, says Glenmede's Pride
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumer will keep spending, they just won't buy as much, says Glenmede's PrideJason Pride, Glenmede CIO for private wealth, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Pride's outlook for the consumer this holiday season, whether there's more pain ahead for the equity markets and more.

☆ Wall St climbs as jobs data supports smaller rate hike prospects
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Amruta Khandekar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Powell should also be pleased that the unemployment rate went up from 3.6% to 3.7%. Traders' bets of a 75 basis point rate hike in December briefly rose to 64.5% after the release of the data but swiftly slipped back to around 60%. Meanwhile, CBOE's volatility index VIX, known as Wall Street's fear gauge, hit its lowest level since Sept. 9. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 3.43-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.51-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 14 new 52-week highs and 15 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 40 new highs and 98 new lows.

☆ Instant View: Strong Oct US payrolls do not give Fed much scope to relax
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

ROSS MAYFIELD, INVESTMENT STRATEGY ANALYST, BAIRD, LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY"It's just another data point that proves the labor market is too strong to accommodate what the Fed wants. They're looking for a situation where you don't just have unemployment rate coming up a little bit. You may have it coming up a little bit more." "They may also be looking for lighter jobless claims and a little bit less in the way of average hourly earnings growth. This tightness in the labor market is probably reaching its peak.

☆ Premarket stocks: The strong dollar has an unexpected victim
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN Business —The strong dollar has been a headwind for blue chip US companies in the Dow and S&P 500 this year. And the Russell 2000, another index of mostly smaller companies, is down 25%, too. Also, the dollar is so strong — the US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the euro, pound, yen and several other currencies has soared 18% this year — it’s making foreign imports cheaper. But real estate stocks have been slammed by worries about a housing and office real estate slowdown. And multinational companies and foreign stocks will fare more poorly than smaller companies with little to no international exposure.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2022. Technology (.SPLRCT), communication services (.SPLRCL) and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) sectors led the rise with gains of about 1% each. Concerns about corporate profits coming under pressure from soaring prices, an economic downturn and higher interest rates have roiled Wall Street in the past two weeks. Analysts have cut their S&P 500 earnings estimates for the third and fourth quarters, and for all of 2022. For the third quarter, S&P 500 earnings are seen rising just 4.6% year-over-year, compared with the 11.1% growth expected at the start of July.

The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) has since relinquished the last of its gains made in a summer rally. ET, Dow e-minis were up 333 points, or 1.13%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 52.25 points, or 1.42%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 189.25 points, or 1.67%. Concerns about corporate profits coming under pressure from soaring prices, an economic downturn and higher interest rates have roiled Wall Street in the past two weeks. Analysts have cut their S&P 500 earnings estimates for the third and fourth quarters, and for all of 2022. For the third quarter, overall S&P 500 earnings are seen rising just 4.6% year-over-year, compared with the 11.1% growth expected at the start of July.

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