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☆ Individual investors are so bearish it’s a contrarian buy signal that should mean a 15% gain, RBC says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Sentiment among retail investors has been almost as bad as it was during the Great Financial Crisis, and that has triggered a reliable contrarian buy signal that points to a double-digit rally ahead, according to RBC. The weekly American Association of Individual Investor survey, which polled individual investors of their thoughts on where the market is heading in the next six months, has indicated a level of bearishness that's close to the level during 2008, RBC said. "Depressed levels of retail investor sentiment are sending a strong buy signal for US equities again," Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC, said in a note. Retail investors have been dumping equities in the face of raging recession fears that have been stoked by rate hikes and a banking crisis. The selling among individual investors reached a new milestone as of late.

☆ Bank stress likely to lead to tighter lending, corporate defaults - BofA credit survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - Bank stress will likely be limited to a small number of banks but lead to tighter lending conditions and a pick-up in corporate defaults, a Bank of America April credit investor survey released on Wednesday showed. The gap between high-yield bonds and government debt has tightened on 63% of days so far in 2023, an all-time record, signalling that credit markets are faring well in face of recent market turmoil, BofA said. The biggest share of respondents to its latest survey, some 36%, said they expected bank stress to remain confined to small banks with challenged business models, with the United States more vulnerable than Europe given different regulatory supervisions. However, over 20% said they believed that a credit crunch resulting from the bank stress would lead to a noticeable pick-up in corporate defaults. As banks may withdraw from lending to high-risk assets, credit investors did not believe that private credit markets would step in and replace it.

☆ Bank stress likely to lead to tighter lending, corporate defaults, Bank of America credit survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

German specialised property lenders such as Aareal Bank (ARLG.DE), Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (PBBG.DE) and Berlin Hyp, have a bigger concentration of real estate exposure, analysts added. Blackstone (BX.N) recently blocked withdrawals from its $70 billion real estate income trust after facing a flurry of redemption requests. Open-ended real estate funds in Britain have also battled to meet strong demand for redemptions. In Europe, CRE exposure for smaller banks, more at risk of deposit flight, is estimated at under 30% of all loans, Capital Economics said. "On the other, real estate owners themselves are going to face quite material increase in costs."

☆ As Wall Street turns bearish on the U.S., here's where the pros say to invest
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Within Europe, Goldman prefers companies in value sectors that pay dividends , as well as select defensive and growth stocks in the market. Emerging markets Several Wall Street analysts are putting their money on emerging markets, with most bullish on China, the world's second-largest economy. While the bank expects just 1% earnings growth for emerging market stocks, it said the sector's valuation looks attractive at a 23% discount to global peers. Philip Blancato, CEO at Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, is also bullish on emerging markets. He added that the case for adding to emerging market allocations is growing, particularly given the "near guarantee" of a softer dollar in the short- to medium-term.

☆ Play defense with these fortress stocks in the second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Bahnsen's investment philosophy focuses specifically on high-quality stocks that have a high dividend yield, along with consistent increases. One of his favorite plays is Procter & Gamble , which currently has a dividend yield of 2.5%. EOG has a 2.9% dividend yield and also has been paying a special dividend. Health-care names Names in the health-care sector are generally considered defensive. Quanta Services has a dividend yield on the lower end, at 0.2%.

The majority of Wall Street investors now favor stocks that pay big dividends for a relatively stable source of income, according to the new CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey. We polled about 400 chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers and CNBC contributors who manage money about where they stood on the markets for the second quarter and forward. Asked which area to concentrate on to start the second quarter, 34% of respondents said high dividend stocks. Stocks with high dividend payouts can provide a reliable stream of income during times of uncertainty. Some of the most popular exchange-traded funds that focus on high dividend stocks include the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF , the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF and the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF .

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, March 28, 2023. Brendan McDermid | ReutersWall Street investors believe the stock market is headed for losses after a positive first quarter, seeing cash as the best safe haven right now, according to the new CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwardsThe Fed enacted a quarter percentage point interest rate increase last week, while signaling one more rate hike coming this year. Many investors believe the central bank should reverse course immediately as more rate hikes will exacerbate banking problems and cause a severe economic slowdown. With an overall bearish view on the market, 60% of the investors said cash is their safe haven right now.

As it stands, a frantic Fed tightening campaign that supercharged the buck looks to be nearing an end amid evidence of steady disinflation. Taken in isolation, that would appears to have lopped more than 10% off the buck over the past three months. "Global growth is showing signs of buoyancy, macro and inflation uncertainty are waning, and the dollar is rapidly losing its carry advantage." DXY halves gainsU.S. import price inflation and the dollarReal yields, inflation and the dollarLESS CROWDEDTo what extent investors are already positioned for this ongoing slide is less clear. Policy pushback from the Fed always has the power to check prevailing dollar moves - but the flipside of dollar strength overseas could be even more powerful as European economies and Japan have to cope with volatility in dollar-priced energy and commodities.

☆ Here are Tuesday's biggest analyst calls: Apple, Exxon, Amazon, Boeing, Spotify, Microsoft & more
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Morgan Stanley downgrades Boeing to equal weight from overweight Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock mainly on valuation. Morgan Stanley names Taiwan Semiconductor a catalyst driven idea Morgan Stanley said it's bullish heading into the semiconductor company's earnings later this week "Comments on 2023 full-year guidance and semi cycle recovery are keys to watch. Morgan Stanley resumes Virgin Galactic as equal weight Morgan Stanley resumed coverage of the space flight company and says it has first mover advantage. Morgan Stanley reiterates Spotify as overweight Morgan Stanley said Spotify has several levers to pull and that it's a self-help story. JPMorgan reiterates Apple as overweight JPMorgan said it appears that iPhone lead times are moderating for Apple.

Source: NYSE(Click here to subscribe to the new Delivering Alpha newsletter.) Despite this year's market havoc, investors are feeling fairly optimistic going into 2023, according to a new CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey. Notably, when asked about their biggest concern for the market, an overwhelming 73% of the participating money managers said it was Fed policy. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwards CNBC Delivering Alpha investor surveyComing in second place was a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Inflation and the investing environmentAbout four out of five participating money managers predict that inflation will continue to ease in the new year.

Once high-flying mega-cap technology stocks tumbled in 2022, but some investors are willing to bet on Amazon and Alphabet in 2023, a new Delivering Alpha investor survey suggests. Betting on energy Energy stocks rallied in 2022 as the world grappled with supply constraints fueled by the conflict in Ukraine, but some investors aren't giving up on it just yet. When asked which areas they plan to focus on at the beginning of 2023, 41% of respondents highlighted energy stocks. Fundstrat's Tom Lee told CNBC last month that energy stocks can more than double next year even if the market stays flat . As uncertainty lingers, survey respondents also said they plan to look beyond the U.S. in 2023 toward opportunities in emerging markets.

☆ It’s not the most wonderful time of the year for markets. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The holidays are meant to be the most wonderful time of the year. But for investors, this week just might be the most stressful time of the year. Then there’s the anticipated central bank meeting. “Most central banks will be reluctant to cut rates in 2023 given the need to cool wage growth.”It has all given the equity and fixed markets a jolt. Maybe investors will be able to relax and take a deep breath before the Fed announcement and press conference later that day.

☆ Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who's nailed the market this year, says bounce has a bit further to go
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Morgan Stanley equity strategist Mike Wilson, a prominent market bear who called 2022's sell-off, now believes the comeback rally could last longer if the Federal Reserve turns dovish this week. "Until next-12-month EPS estimates come down meaningfully the rally can continue, particularly if the Fed meeting leads to lower rates," Wilson said in a Monday note. "This week's Fed meeting is critical for the rally to continue, pause or even end completely." He set his year-end target at 3,900, compared with an average forecast of 4,023, according to a CNBC market strategist survey that rounds out 15 top strategists' outlooks. A big headwind the market faces right now is deteriorating corporate earnings, especially lower guidance, Wilson said.

☆ Analysis: As U.S. stocks rip higher, investors hunt for signs of market bottom
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The current gain – which has seen the S&P 500 bounce about 6.5% last week's fresh intraday low for 2022 – comes on the heels of several rebounds throughout the year that eventually crumbled. However, the index has not been above that level since March even as the S&P 500 continued making new lows. The put/call ratio is yet to approach a 10-day average of at least 1.2 that has historically indicated that "you are more in the ballpark of panic and fear and close to a market low," he said. The current bear market has also been less severe than many past downturns. The S&P 500 slid as much as 25.4% this year, while bear markets since 1929 have seen an average decline of 35%, according to BofA.

Oct 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeeverWhisper it, but the rebound underway on Wall Street - which is lifting markets and risk appetite everywhere - may have legs. This should put Asian markets on a positive footing on Wednesday. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterU.S. earnings are rolling in nicely, with some notable beats like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. The issues that crushed markets this year - rapid tightening of policy and financial conditions, growth fears, sticky inflation and messy fiscal policy - haven't gone away. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Investor survey signals start of "policy capitulation" - BofA
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

MILAN, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Investors raised cash levels further in October as sentiment towards the economic outlook remained close to max bearishness, the latest global fund manager survey (FMS) by BofA showed on Tuesday, although expectations of a policy pivot grew. "FMS screams macro capitulation, investor capitulation, start of policy capitulation," BofA said in the survey. The share of investors anticipating lower short-term rates in the next 12 months doubled to 28% in October from 14% in September and versus only 5% in March, it said. BofA polled 371 panelists overseeing $1.1 trillion in assets between October 7 and October 13. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Danilo Masoni, editing by Alun JohnOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, September 26, 2022. (Click here to subscribe to the new Delivering Alpha newsletter.) The Federal Reserve's most aggressive pace of tightening since the 1980s is making the majority of Wall Street investors believe stocks will be underwater for longer, according to the new CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey. We polled about 400 chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers and CNBC contributors who manage money, asking where they stood on the markets for the rest of 2022 and beyond. Fifty-eight percent of respondents said their biggest concern for the markets right now is the Fed being too aggressive.

With the market turmoil raging on, the majority of Wall Street investors are now favoring dividend-paying stocks and value names into the end of the year, according to the new CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey. About a third of the respondents said they are most likely to buy stocks paying high dividends now. Unlike growth stocks, dividend stocks typically don't offer dramatic price appreciation, but they do provide investors with a stable source of income during times of uncertainty. The three most popular dividend exchange-traded funds are the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF , the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF and the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF . The survey also showed that investors' biggest concern right now is the Fed being too aggressive.

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