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Analysts pick winners from China stimulus measures
  + stars: | 2024-10-20 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Now that China's key ministers have spoken on stimulus, analysts have narrowed down the stocks likely to benefit. Chinese stocks have tempered their recent rally as investors await more policy details. Beyond interest rate cuts, the most tangible Chinese stimulus policies include subsidies to boost consumption with a trade-in program, along with incremental property market support. They screened for mainland-traded Chinese stocks with relatively high dividend yields and strong cash flow. While Chinese property developers may not bounce back right away, HSBC analysts expect construction software company Glodon, listed in Shenzhen, can benefit from property market stabilization.
Persons: David Chao, Morgan Stanley, Morgan, Ni Hong, Edward Chan Organizations: Asia Pacific, Aluminum Corp, Cement, HSBC, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Japan, Invesco, Hong Kong, Anhui, Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai
Tom Lee, Fundstrat's head of research, said in an Oct. 17 note to clients that the firm is opening a six-month "tactical overweight" on the homebuilding sector. The six-month timeline counts on a strong seasonal pattern where homebuilders tend to rally from late October to late April. While the reason for the historical trend is not clear, the fact that it currently coincides with a rate-cutting cycle for the Federal Reserve should lend homebuilders' stocks even more support, Lee said. "The Fed is cutting interest rates, at a time when U.S. housing has been in a recession. The sector exchange-traded funds highlighted by Lee include the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) , the SPDR S & P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) and the Invesco Building & Construction ETF (PKB) .
Persons: Tom Lee, Fundstrat's, Lee Organizations: Federal, Home, Construction Locations: U.S
Semiconductor stocks are rebounding in reaction to a beat-and-raise earnings report from Taiwan Semiconductor . NEXTracke r: Shares of solar stock Nextracker are having another rough day, dropping roughly 3%. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. A logo of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is seen during the TSMC global RnD Center opening ceremony in Hsinchu on July 28, 2023.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, there's, we've, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Amber Wang Organizations: CNBC, Semiconductor, Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, Apple, Taiwan Semi, ASML Holdings, Treasury, Atlanta, JPMorgan, Nextracker, Microsoft, Republican, Netflix, Procter, Gamble, American Express, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Center, Afp, Getty Locations: Taiwan, Hsinchu, AFP
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso, Invesco’s Kristina Hooper and Citi’s Scott ChronertiCapital's Anastasia Amoroso, Invesco’s Kristina Hooper and Citi’s Scott Chronert, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss markets, earnings revisions, and the likelihood of a soft landing.
Persons: iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso, Invesco’s Kristina Hooper, Citi’s Scott Chronert iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso, Citi’s Scott Chronert
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. economy potentially moving away from recession, Invesco saysBen Gutteridge, director of model portfolio services at Invesco, says resilient growth and monetary easing is a helpful backdrop for equities.
Persons: Ben Gutteridge Organizations: U.S Locations: Invesco
The tech trade lost some of its steam over the summer, and that could create opportunities for tactical trading in the fourth quarter, several investors told CNBC. The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.6% during the third quarter, lagging behind both the broader S & P 500 's gain of 5.5% and the small Russell 2000's jump of 8.9%. Still, many investors are cautious of abandoning the tech trade completely even after a few bumpy months. Even after the recent slump, those stocks still account for about 31% of the S & P 500, and even more in many funds focused on tech or growth. RSP 6M mountain This equal weight version of the S & P 500 outperformed the regular S & P 500, the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the third quarter.
Persons: Russell, James Ragan, DA Davidson, We're, Frank Tedesco, Ragan, Jason Browne, Alexis, We've, we've, Browne, LEXI Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft, DA, Astoria, RSP, Dow Jones, Quality, Alexis Investment Partners, Big Tech Locations: Astoria
U.S. economy is on a 'decelerating trend,' Invesco says
  + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. economy is on a 'decelerating trend,' Invesco saysPaul Jackson, global head of asset allocation research at Invesco, discusses the U.S. stock market.
Persons: Invesco, Paul Jackson Organizations: U.S
The strategy is meant to minimize interest rate risks, explained Saraja Samant, a manager research analyst at Morningstar. Wisdom Tree has two Treasury ladder ETFs: a one- to three-year fund and a seven- to 10-year fund. Schwab has Treasury bond ladder strategies in separately managed accounts operated by its Wasmer Schroeder Strategies' team. "They can add to or take from the entire bond ladder all at once, which is challenging to do with an individual bond ladder." The 'comfort' of a ladder To build a Treasury ladder, investors can go to Treasury Direct or use a broker dealer and tailor it to their needs, Samant said.
Persons: you'll, Saraja Samant, Robert Scrudato, Schwab, Schroeder, Barry Glassman, Morningstar's Samant, Samant, Michael Kessler, Glassman, Kessler, he's Organizations: Federal, Morningstar, Treasury, BlackRock, Securities and Exchange Commission, Wealth, Albion Financial, AAA Locations: Vienna , Virginia, Salt Lake City
Yet investors remain unrelentingly bullish, bidding the US stock market further into uncharted territory. That’s the strongest start to a year since 1997, according to FactSet, when the US economy was surging during the dotcom boom under President Bill Clinton. Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, said the “very impressive” market performance has been driven by “continued resilience” in the US economy and enthusiasm over Fed rate cuts. US stocks retreated Tuesday after the White House warned that Iran is preparing to launch an imminent ballistic missile attack on Iran. “The Iran report is the thing scaring everyone right now,” said Michael Block, co-founder and chief operating officer at AgentSmyth.
Persons: Bill Clinton, Kristina Hooper, , , Michael Block, hasn’t, Block Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, White, House, Tech, Nvidia, CNN Locations: New York, Iran, Taiwan
The S&P 500 is up about 1.5% in September. Below are our investors of the month for September. AdvertisementStocks had a tough first week of September, with the S&P 500 tumbling more than 4%, thanks partly to a mediocre August jobs report. As of Friday, the S&P 500 was up around 1.5% in September, bucking the month's historical downward trend. Below are our investors of the month for September, including managers of the top US-focused and international-focused funds, as well as the "Holy Shit" fund of the month, which is the best-performing overall fund.
Persons: , Stocks, Dow Jones, Malcolm R, Fobes, Peter Hubbard, Benoit Autier, Jeff Klearman Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Google Finance, Investor, Focus, Nvidia, Broadcom Investor, Invesco, Dragon China Locations: Lipper, China
As a result of that excitement, China ETFs are dominating the list of top performing funds in September, according to FactSet. The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) was up about 22% on the month, while the KraneSharesCSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) was up more than 32%. Other top performers include the Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF (CHIQ) and the Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF (PGJ) , with September gains of roughly 32% and 30%, respectively. The MSCI China Index's total annualized return during that period is under 1%. The average here is a gain of +78% over 176 trading days vs. a decline of -42% over 165 trading days," the note continued.
Persons: Todd Sohn, David Tepper, there's Organizations: People's Bank of, CSI, China Internet, Dragon China Locations: People's Bank of China, China, U.S
China needs more than rate cuts to boost economic growth
  + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's slowing economy needs more than interest rate cuts to boost growth, analysts said. He expects Beijing will likely ramp up fiscal stimulus due to weak growth, despite reluctance so far. "The market is forming a medium to long-term expectation on the U.S. growth rate, the inflation rate. As for Chinese government bonds, Ding said the firm has a "neutral" view and expects the Chinese yields to remain relatively low. He pointed out that monetary easing still requires fiscal stimulus "to achieve the effect of expanding credit and transmitting money to the real economy."
Persons: Larry Hu, That's, Edmund Goh, Yifei Ding, Ding, CF40, Pan Gongsheng, Haizhong Chang, Chang Organizations: China Resources, Getty, BEIJING, People's Bank of China, Macquarie, U.S, of Finance, PBOC, Ministry of Finance, Fitch Locations: China, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, abrdn, Beijing, U.S, Invesco
Gold, traditionally perceived as a haven, has climbed roughly 30% this year, outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 index’s 20% gain. Fresh consumer confidence data on Tuesday indicated that Americans are feeling pessimistic about the US economy and future of the job market. JPMorgan Chase researchers said in a note on Monday that they expect the yellow metal to continue running toward their 2025 target price of $2,850 an ounce as the Fed brings down rates. Silver, another precious metal that tends to move in tandem with gold, has jumped roughly 34% this year, outperforming the yellow metal. New moves from China to revive its economy also has the potential to lift precious metals, said Rhind.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Kristina Hooper, JPMorgan Chase, “ There’s, Will Rhind, Rhind Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Traders, JPMorgan, Treasury, GraniteShares, Citi Locations: New York, China, Turkey, India, China’s
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Adam Parker, Lauren Goodwin, & Kristina HooperAdam Parker, Trivariate Research founder and CEO; Lauren Goodwin, New York Life Investments chief market strategist; and Kristina Hooper, Invesco chief global market strategist, join CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss where to find opportunities within the bull market.
Persons: Adam Parker, Lauren Goodwin, Kristina Hooper Adam Parker, Kristina Hooper, CNBC's Organizations: Trivariate Research, New York Life Investments Locations: New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'It's all about growth' to determine where stocks go next, says New York Life Investments' GoodwinAdam Parker, Trivariate Research founder and CEO; Lauren Goodwin, New York Life Investments chief market strategist; and Kristina Hooper, Invesco chief global market strategist, join CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss where to find opportunities within the bull market.
Persons: Goodwin Adam Parker, Lauren Goodwin, Kristina Hooper, CNBC's Organizations: Life Investments, Trivariate Research, New York Life Investments Locations: New York
—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: CTVA, Katie Stockton Organizations: Invesco DB Agriculture Fund, Wheat, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: CTVA
Invesco: Indonesia an 'outsized beneficiary' of Fed rate cut
  + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvesco: Indonesia an 'outsized beneficiary' of Fed rate cutDavid Chao of Invesco shares his playbook for assets that he expects will perform well should the U.S. economy enter a soft landing.
Persons: David Chao, Invesco Locations: Indonesia, U.S
Read previewUS equities are trading near record highs after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, but a long-time chartmaster doesn't believe the euphoria is warranted. Add in an unclear path forward for interest rates and geopolitical risks, and Keller said stocks will struggle to break past today's levels. Homebuilders such as DR Horton (DHI) can be a prime beneficiary of lower interest rates, Keller pointed out. "And when you think about what that means, that usually means: really good setup for homebuilders. Utilities also stand out, not only due to their defensive qualities, but because their yields look more attractive as falling interest rates weigh on bond yields.
Persons: , doesn't, David Keller, Keller, Whoever's, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Jeff Muhlenkamp Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Business, Sierra Alpha Research, Republican, Enphase, Trump, Utilities Locations: StockCharts.com
Watch CNBC's full interview with Marci McGregor & Brian Levitt
  + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Marci McGregor & Brian LevittMarci McGregor, Merrill & Bank of America Private Bank head of CIO portfolio strategy, and Brian Levitt, Invesco global market strategist, join CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss reactions to the Fed's decision to cut rates by 50 basis-points, market outlooks, and more.
Persons: Marci McGregor, Brian Levitt Marci McGregor, Brian Levitt, CNBC's Organizations: Merrill & Bank of America Private Bank
The Federal Reserve has telegraphed the kickoff of their interest rate cutting campaign to begin next week. I believe a quarter-point interest rate cut is their first step but, a half-point interest rate cut (which has the ability to roil markets) has recently been floated strongly. The Nasdaq-100 dropped 6% last week and is now up nearly 5% this week, these are not normal market conditions. QQQ YTD mountain Invesco QQQ Trust, YTD The Cboe Volatility Index , yet elevated, is not showing current signs of panic. The trade The CME Fedwatch tool is narrowly favoring a 25 basis point interest rate cut but, it is oddly closer to a coin toss than it was last week.
Persons: pont, QQQ Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Nasdaq, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
New York CNN —For much of the last two years, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded above the 10-year yield. Still, there are plenty of instances when the yield curve uninverted and a recession wasn’t right around the corner. The most recent prior case of the yield curve uninverting was September 2019. (Disinversion and uninversion are both used to refer to a yield curve that returns to being in positive territory.) One reason she isn’t on edge is because the yield curve was inverted for a much longer stretch of time compared to other recent recessions.
Persons: that’s, Marco Giacoletti, ” “, Kristina Hooper, Hooper, ” Kevin Flanagan, , Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Flanagan Organizations: New, New York CNN, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Southern California Marshall School of Business, CNN Locations: New York
But there's another lesser-known S&P 500 index that you might not have heard of: the SPW. In contrast, the conventional S&P 500 allocates more weight to the biggest companies based on market capitalization. Big Tech names carry very little debt on their balance sheets, meaning that they are less affected by elevated interest rates. Bank of AmericaIn contrast, the cap-weight S&P 500 is approaching overvalued territory. Examples of SPW index funds include the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and Goldman Sachs Equal Weight U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF (GSEW).
Persons: , that's, Jack Ablin, LPL, Jeff Buchbinder, Savita Subramanian, Buchbinder, Ablin, haven't, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Big Tech, Business, Bank of America, Cresset, Healthcare, financials, Bank of America's, Equity, RSP
Price action in the stock market suggests markets think Kamala Harris won Tuesday's debate. Investors reacted by selling assets tied to the "Trump trade," with declines in Trump Media stock and bitcoin. AdvertisementThe first Presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is over and markets have named the winner. Following Tuesday night's debate, markets are showing signs that Vice President Harris came out on top, with investors voting with their portfolios and selling assets tied to the so-called Trump trade. On the flipside, assets that could see a boost from a Kamala Harris presidency were up Wednesday.
Persons: Price, Kamala Harris, Trump, Harris, , Donald Trump, Matthew Ryan, Ebury, it's Organizations: Trump Media, Service, Trump, Technology Group, Truth, cryptocurrency, ING, ING Economics
US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris listens to former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speak during a presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024. Solar and clean energy stocks rose Wednesday after Wall Street largely declared Vice President Kamala Harris the winner of the first and likely only debate before the November election. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) and the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) gained more than 3% and more than 2%, respectively, in morning trading. The benchmarks are down 28% and 11% this year as uncertainty over the outcome of the election has clouded the outlook for the clean energy industry. "We expect a near-term bounce towards Vice President Harris following the first debate with former President Trump, but the longer-term impact remains unclear," Raymond James analyst Ed Mills told clients in a note late Wednesday night.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Sunnova, Harris, Trump, Raymond James, Ed Mills Organizations: Democratic, Republican, National Constitution Center, Clean Energy, New York Times, Siena College, White, Citi, White House Locations: Philadelphia , Pennsylvania
Alliance Bernstein is behind the AB US Low Volatility Equity ETF. For comparison, FactSet lists the top holdings for Invesco's Low Volatility ETF as stocks that are traditionally more stable: Berkshire-Hathaway , Coca-Cola and Visa . Archard notes there's still a place for historically less volatile stocks such as consumer staples and financials . For example, FactSet shows that Alliance Bernstein's low-volatility ETF also includes exposure in names including Procter & Gamble and Fiserv . The AB US Low Volatility ETF is up 16% so far this year as of Wednesday's close.
Persons: Bernstein, FactSet, Noel Archard, CNBC's, there's Organizations: Big Tech, Microsoft, Apple, Hathaway, Cola, Visa, Procter & Gamble Locations: Berkshire
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