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Where in the World Are People Back in the Office?
  + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
In London, a politician wrote not-so-subtle notes to remote workers last year, hoping to persuade them to spend more time in the office: “Sorry you were out when I visited,” Jacob Rees-Mogg, then a government minister, recalled writing in messages left on the desks of Cabinet Office staff members who were working from home. When the coronavirus pandemic took hold in 2020, many industries across the world shifted to remote or hybrid work. It was an immense experiment that yielded different results for different cities — with long-term standoffs between executives and workers in some cases, and a sweeping return to the office in others. Whether a person is more likely to do work at a cubicle in a big office tower or on the living room couch now depends on where in the world those cubicles and couches are. Many Asian countries have lower levels of remote work than countries in Europe and North America.
Persons: ” Jacob Rees, Mogg, Jem Kim, videoconference, Autónomo, México Organizations: Sequoia, Stanford, Instituto, Ifo Institute Locations: London, Seoul, San Mateo, Calif, Europe, North America, Britain, Canada, United States
German exports fall less-than-expected 0.9% in July
  + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Phil Noble/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Sept 4 (Reuters) - German exports fell a less-than-expected 0.9% in July from a month earlier as global demand continued to falter, data from the federal statistics office showed on Monday. "Trade is no longer the strong resilient growth driver of the German economy that it used to be, but rather a drag," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomics at ING. Imports rose 1.4% on the month, the data showed. German export expectations have deteriorated slightly due to weak foreign demand, an Ifo survey showed in August. "As long as the global economic environment remains weak, German exports will also remain depressed," said Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank.
Persons: Phil Noble, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Bastian Hepperle, Hauck Aufhaeuser Lampe, Thomas Gitzel, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine, Alex Richardson, Christopher Cushing Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, ING . Supply, European Union, VP Bank, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Germany, China, Hauck
The "sick man of Europe" moniker has resurfaced in recent weeks as manufacturing output continues to stutter in the region's largest economy and the country grapples with high energy prices. It "has to do with the automobile industry, which is the heart of the German industry and many things hinge on that," he said. Germany reported a foreign trade deficit for the first time in decades in May 2022, totaling 1 billion euros ($1.03 billion). Plunge in business sentimentSinn said investor doubts about the feasibility of Germany's sustainability goals also play into the description of the country as the "sick man of Europe." Uncertainty about energy prices has likely contributed to a "plunge" in business sentiment, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, wrote in the note.
Persons: Hans, Werner Sinn, Sinn, CNBC's Steve Sedgwick, Thomas Lohnes, Berenberg, Holger Schmieding Organizations: European Central Bank, Getty, Ambrosetti, Berenberg Locations: Germany, Europe, Italy, Ukraine, Frankfurt, Saudi Arabia
Europe stocks open mixed as investors eye global data
  + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
European stock markets were mixed at the open on Friday, as investors await a key U.S. jobs report. The regional Stoxx 600 index opened 0.06% lower, with sectors spread between losses and gains. Oil and gas stocks moved 1.6% higher after analysts raised oil price forecasts for the first time in four months in a Reuters poll released Thursday. Autos stocks fell 1.26%, however, after a survey from Germany's ifo Institute flagged a deterioration in sentiment among automakers; almost half said a lack of orders was impeding production.
Organizations: ifo Locations: U.S
Germany is the sick man of Europe, Ifo institute says
  + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGermany is the sick man of Europe, Ifo institute saysHans-Werner Sinn, president emeritus of the Ifo institute, discusses the German economy and explains how the energy transition must be managed to support the country's manufacturing sector.
Persons: Hans, Werner Sinn Locations: Europe
The Ifo institute said on Friday that its business climate index stood at 85.7, down from 87.4 in July. Reuters Graphics"The German economy is not out of the woods yet," Ifo president Clemens Fuest said. The economy then posted zero growth in the second quarter compared to the previous three months, separate data from the statistics office showed on Friday. The Ifo survey showed sentiment among German managers had become more pessimistic across all sectors in August. The Ifo survey chimed with flash PMI data released on Wednesday, which showed that German business activity contracted at the fastest pace for more than three years in August.
Persons: Annegret, Clemens Fuest, Christian Lindner, Klaus Wohlrabe, Claus Niegsch, Niegsch, Andrew Kenningham, Carsten Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine, Mark Potter, John Stonestreet Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, . Finance, DZ Bank, Reuters Graphics, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, BERLIN, Europe
German business sentiment is 'going down and down,' Ifo says
  + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGerman business sentiment is 'going down and down,' Ifo saysKlaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys at Ifo, says there's "a lot of bad news" when it comes to incoming orders in the manufacturing and services sectors.
Persons: Ifo, Klaus Wohlrabe
Morning Bid: Dollar rockets as Powell trumps AI
  + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to deliver a keynote address to the annual central banking symposium in Jackson Hole at 1405 GMT. And given increasingly contrasting fortunes of economies on either side of the Atlantic, Powell's words are expected to contain a different message to the one from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde later in the day at 1900 GMT. Turkey's lira gave back only some of Thursday's gains after its central bank shocked with a 750 basis point interest rate to 25%. Events to watch for on Friday:* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gives keynote speech at annual Fed symposium in Jackson Hole. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde also speaks at Jackson Hole.
Persons: Mike Segar, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Ifo, Jackson, Powell, Patrick Harker, Susan Collins, Collins, Harker, BoE, China's bourses, Christina Fincher Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, European Central Bank, Philadelphia Fed, Boston Fed, ECB, Bank of, Treasury, Reuters, Authorities, University of Michigan's, Marvell, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Jackson, Bank of England, Asia, Jackson Hole, Jakarta
London CNN —It’s been nearly two decades since Germany shrugged off its “sick man of Europe” label with a series of labor market reforms that ushered in years of economic outperformance. Sticky inflation and three straight quarters of falling or stagnating output have put Europe’s biggest economy in the doldrums. “Sticky” inflation is eroding Germans’ purchasing power, fueling “pessimism among households,” according to Thomas Obst, senior economist at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research. “[German] industrial order books have emptied over the last 12 months,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomic research at ING, told CNN. “Germany is in a very singular position.”Bright spotsHolger Schmieding, the economist who first called Germany the “sick man of Europe” in 1998, thinks the “current wave of pessimism” over its economy is overdone.
Persons: London CNN — It’s, Stefan Kooths, Europe ”, Kooths, Thomas Obst, Obst, , Klaus Wohlrabe, Frank Soellner, ” Carsten Brzeski, Sam Reeves, Brzeski, David Hecker, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, Kiehl Institute, Cologne Institute, Economic Research, CNN, European Central Bank, ifo, Volkswagen, Siemens, Global, ING, Getty, China Locations: Germany, Europe, Berlin, ifo, Bad, China, Duisburg, AFP, Ukraine, Australia, France
Morning Bid: Bonds burn on as China rate cut underwhelms
  + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A sign is seen outside the 11 Wall St. entrance of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 1, 2021. Although prompted by a deepening property sector bust and worrying economic activity undershoot, China's latest widely expected interest rate cut on Monday was surprisingly small - underscoring concerns that official efforts to shore up the economic malaise are still just piecemeal. The People's Bank of China lowered its one-year lending rate by only 10 basis points to 3.45% - less than the 15bp cut forecast - and it left five-year rates unchanged. UBS became the latest global bank to slash China's annual economic growth forecast for this year - down to 4.8% from 5.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields hovered below last week's highs on Monday, however, and Wall St stock futures were firmer ahead of the open.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan There's, China's, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, disinflation, Germany's, Crest Nicholson, Mike Dolan, Bernadette Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, People's Bank of, Stock Connect, HK, UBS, Treasury, Federal, Jackson, Wall St, BRICS Summit, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, China, People's Bank of China, South Africa, Brazil, Russia, India, Ukraine, Wall, Johannesburg
The findings come as support for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his coalition slumps and the AfD capitalises on voter insecurity. German inflation has been on a downward trend, but is still much higher than the European Union's 2% target. Low and middle income households have been generally hit harder by inflation, Florian Dorn, a researcher at Ifo told Reuters. Although higher energy import prices initially drove inflation in Europe and Germany, companies were also putting up prices beyond their cost inflation, WSI analysis showed. Companies' profit inflation rose by 7% in 2022 compared to an only 3.3% rise in labour costs.
Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Florian Dorn, Ulrich Schneider, Der, Riham, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: REUTERS, Kantar Public, Ifo, Reuters, Workers, Companies, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Germany, Russia, Ukraine, Europe's, Europe
You can actually finish work at five, rather than finishing at five spending 45 minutes trying to get home." When you have a jolt, you never return to the way the world was," said John Buchanan, head of the University of Sydney's Health and Work Research Network. That same week, the public sector union struck a deal the which lets Australia's 120,000 federal employees request work-from-home an unlimited number of days. By comparison, Canada's federal workers ended a two-week strike in May with a wages agreement that came without the WFH protections they wanted. Among employees with WFH experience, 19% wanted to return to the office full-time, the survey found.
Persons: David Gray, SYDNEY, Nicholas Coomber, Coomber, Jamie Dimon, Elon Musk, John Buchanan, We're, Jones Lang Lasalle, Melissa Donnelly, WFH, Mathias Dolls, Jim Stanford, Stanford, Byron Kaye, Miral Organizations: REUTERS, JPMorgan Chase, Twitter, University of Sydney's Health, Work Research, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank, NAB, European Union, Community, Public Sector Union, CBA, ifo, Macroeconomics, Stanford University, Workers, Centre, Australia Institute, Thomson Locations: Melbourne, Southbank, Australia, New Zealand, Tokyo, New York, JLL.N, Hamburg
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGermany is finding it difficult to get out of a recession, economist saysClemens Fuest, economist and president of IFO, says it "looks like general conditions are worsening" and "restrictive monetary policy is having its effect on demand."
Persons: Clemens Fuest, IFO
It found that Canadians and Brits spend the most time working from home. US workers are in third place, despite both staff and employers wanting to spend the most time. It found Americans were in third place for the number of days spent working from home, at an average of 1.4 per week. That's only narrowly behind the UK's 1.5, and Canada, whose workers spend an average of 1.7 days working from home each week. Globally, workers spend an average of 0.9 days working from home, despite employers planning for 1.1 days, and staff wanting two days.
Persons: That's, Mathias Dolls Organizations: Brits, Service, IFO, Macroeconomics, McKinsey Locations: Wall, Silicon, German, Canada, Koreans
Back then one idea was to aggressively push for companies to disclose details of their China business, and even to stress-test their exposure, according to a draft seen by Reuters. The compromise likely stems from the realisation that China is simply too strategic to quit quickly without inflicting significant pain. A survey conducted by the ifo Institute showed that half of German firms in the manufacturing sector currently depend on important intermediate inputs from China. Even so, executives will be relieved they can for the most part undertake China de-risking at their own pace. Follow @ywchen1 on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSGermany’s first China strategy, published on July 13, outlined possible responses to an "increasingly assertive" Beijing, such as adjusting export controls and outbound investment restrictions.
Persons: Martin, Thomas Schäfer, Brudermüller, , Li Qiang, George Hay, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, BASF, Volkswagen, Greens, Reuters Breakingviews, BASF ”, ifo, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Union, VW, European Union, Thomson Locations: China, Berlin, People’s Republic, Brussels, Washington, Taiwan, Republic, Germany, Beijing
Germany’s China policy caps pain for its companies
  + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Back then one idea was to aggressively push for companies to disclose details of their China business, and even to stress-test their exposure, according to a draft seen by Reuters. The compromise likely stems from the realisation that China is simply too strategic to quit quickly without inflicting significant pain. The People’s Republic is also Volkswagen's largest market, accounting for around 40% of Volkswagen's global unit sales in 2022. Even so, executives will be relieved they can for the most part undertake China de-risking at their own pace. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsFollow @ywchen1 on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSGermany’s first China strategy, published on July 13, outlined possible responses to an "increasingly assertive" Beijing, such as adjusting export controls and outbound investment restrictions.
Persons: Martin, Thomas Schäfer, Brudermüller, , Li Qiang, George Hay, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, BASF, Volkswagen, Greens, Reuters Breakingviews, BASF ”, ifo, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Union, VW, European Union, Thomson Locations: China, Berlin, People’s Republic, Brussels, Washington, Taiwan, Republic, Germany, Beijing
Drop in German business morale points to longer recession
  + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Summary Business climate index fell to 88.5 in June from 91.5 in MayBoth business expectations and current business conditions fellProbability of longer recession risesBERLIN, June 26 (Reuters) - German business morale worsened for the second consecutive month in June, a survey showed on Monday, indicating that Europe's largest economy faces an uphill battle to shake off recession. "Sentiment in the German economy has clouded over noticeably," Ifo's president Clemens Fuest said. Indeed, expectations were much more pessimistic, with the related Ifo index falling to 83.6 from May's 88.3. "The probability has increased that gross domestic product will also shrink in the second quarter," he said. "We feel confirmed in our forecast that the German economy will shrink again in the second half of the year," Commerzbank's chief economist Joerg Kraemer said.
Persons: Clemens Fuest, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Klaus Wohlrabe, Urban, Franziska Palmas, Joerg Kraemer, Maria Martinez, Rene Wagner, Friederike Heine, Matthias Williams, Hugh Lawson Organizations: ING, Companies, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, U.S, Germany, German, Europe
Gold prices edge up on weaker dollar
  + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
June 26 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged higher in early Asian trade on Monday, helped by a weaker U.S. dollar, although chances of more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year to tame sticky inflation weighed on bullion's appeal. FUNDAMENTALS* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,926.29 per ounce by 0051 GMT. U.S. gold futures were up 0.3% at $1,936.10 per ounce* The dollar index was down 0.2%, making gold more attractive for buyers holding other currencies. * In his congressional testimony last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled more rate hikes ahead but vowed the central bank would proceed with caution. DATA/EVENTS (GMT)0500 Japan Leading Indicator Revised April0800 Germany Ifo Business Climate New June0800 Germany Ifo Current Conditions New June0800 Germany Ifo Expectations New JuneReporting by Seher Dareen in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu SahuOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Mary Daly, Masato Kanda, Seher, Subhranshu Sahu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Francisco Fed Bank, Thomson Locations: Japan, Germany, Bengaluru
Morning Bid: World markets calm after Russia drama
  + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
More perplexed by events than anything else, world markets stayed relatively calm on Monday after a dramatic Russian military mutiny at the weekend was uneasily quelled. For Russian markets themselves, the rouble slipped to 15-month lows - but it too had been falling last week as oil prices ebbed. Largely now isolated from western investment, Russian stocks fell about 1%. U.S. Treasury yields slipped lower, perhaps with a smidgen of a safety bid from the weekend events helping too. Turkey's lira slid again to record lows after the central bank took steps to simplify rules governing lenders' holdings and foreign deposits after a sharp but underwhelming interest rate rise last week.
Persons: Mike Dolan, uneasily, Vladimir Putin, Leonardo, Raphael Bostic, James Bullard, Loretta Mester, Ed Osmond Organizations: Wall, Saab, Rheinmetall, Brent, . U.S, Treasury, Bank for International Settlements, HSBC, Dallas Federal, Central Bank, Central Banking, Atlanta Federal Reserve, St Louis Fed, Cleveland Fed, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Ukraine, Moscow, Shanghai, Europe, United States, ., Canary Wharf, London, Sintra, Portugal
Morning Bid: Markets take mutiny in their stride, for now
  + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Mercenaries from the Wagner group were returning to their bases after a deal ended Saturday's mutinous advance on Moscow. Oil moved up as the instability could mean challenges for exporting Russian crude, but moves were only modest. Talk was also that the insurrection in Russian ranks opened an opportunity for Ukraine to press its advantage in battle. The yuan and Chinese stocks slid, catching up with global moves while China was on holiday on Thursday and Friday. Later on Monday Germany's Ifo business survey is due and is expected to show business morale and expectations further souring.
Persons: Westbrook, Wagner, Oil, Vladimir Putin's, toughened, Tom Westbrook, Muralikumar Organizations: Westbrook Investors, Bank of Japan, Reuters Graphics Reuters, CBI, Thomson Locations: Asia, Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, U.S, Japan, China
June 26 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. It is unclear what the immediate impact of Russian mercenaries' advance on Moscow, retreat and apparent deal with President Vladimir Putin will be on risk appetite and demand for traditional 'safe haven' assets like gold, Treasuries, the Japanese yen or the U.S. dollar. These assets would likely have attracted strong investor demand first thing on Monday morning had the Wagner group's march on Moscow continued. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, MSCI World Index, China's major indices and Japan's Nikkei 225 index all posted their biggest losses since March last week. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index, a broad measure of Asian stocks, slumped 4.2%, its worst week since September.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Vladimir Putin, Wagner, Antony Blinken, Diane Craft Organizations: U.S ., Investors, . Stock, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Russia, Moscow, U.S, Beijing, Asia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Germany
German recession will be sharper than expected: Ifo
  + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
BERLIN, June 21 (Reuters) - The German economy will contract more than previously expected this year as sticky inflation takes its toll on private consumption, the Ifo Institute said on Wednesday while presenting its forecasts. "The German economy is only very slowly working its way out of the recession," Ifo's head of economic forecasts, Timo Wollmershaeuser, said. German gross domestic product is expected to fall by 0.4% this year, more than the 0.1% forecast by the Ifo Institute in March. Ifo forecasts eurozone GDP will expand by 0.6% this year and the U.S. by 0.9%. Regarding core inflation, the Ifo Institute forecasts it will increase to 6% this year from 4.9% in the previous year, before falling to 3% in 2024.
Persons: Timo Wollmershaeuser, Wollmershaeuser, Maria Martinez, Matthias Williams, Alex Richardson Organizations: Ifo, Ifo Institute, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, U.S, Germany
German exports rise unexpectedly in April on China reopening
  + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
BERLIN, June 5 (Reuters) - German exports rose unexpectedly in April, boosted by deliveries to China following its post-pandemic reopening, but analysts warned that the momentum could be short-lived. German exports increased by 1.2% on the previous month, the federal statistics office said. Exports to China were up 10.1%, while exports to the U.S. were up 4.7% and exports to the European Union rose 4.5%, the office said. The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 18.4 billion euros ($19.68 billion) in April, up from 14.9 billion euros the previous month. "The temporary push in exports to China will fade with time," ING's global head of macro at ING Carsten Brzeski told Reuters.
Persons: Alexander Krueger, Hauck Aufhaeuser, Claus Vistesen, ING Carsten Brzeski, Holger Schmieding, Klaus Wohlrabe, Rachel More, Maria Martinez, Kirsti Knolle, Gareth Jones Organizations: Reuters, European Union, Macroeconomics, ING, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, China, Hauck Aufhaeuser Lampe, U.S, Ifo
The so-called Joint Economic Forecasts, to be presented in Berlin on Wednesday, expect a 0.1% expansion in gross domestic product in the first quarter. The five economic institutes which prepare the Joint Economic Forecasts predict GDP growth in Germany of 0.3% in 2023, up from a predicted contraction of 0.4% in the autumn, two sources familiar with the data told Reuters. The economics ministry will update its forecasts incorporating the results of the Joint Economic Forecasts this spring. The economic institutes predict inflation of 6.0% in 2023, before slowing to 2.4% in 2024. The Joint Economic Forecasts are prepared by the Ifo Institute, the Halle Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.
BERLIN, April 4 (Reuters) - German exports rose significantly more than expected in February due to strong demand from the United States and China, posting their biggest increase in 10 months, data showed on Tuesday. Exports increased by 4.0% on the previous month, the federal statistics office said. A Reuters poll had predicted a month-on-month rise in exports of 1.6%. In February, exports to European Union countries rose 2.0% on the previous month, while exports to the U.S. and China increased by 9.4% and 10.2% respectively compared with January. Despite the increase, export demand still lacks momentum, Klaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys at Ifo, said.
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