Most of the inflation is behind us, and then the biggest threat is recession, not inflation, today. Jeremy Siegel Wharton professorOfficial data, which typically lags by a month, may not immediately show the changes happening in the real economy, he said. "Most of the inflation is behind us, and then the biggest threat is recession, not inflation, today." "I think that that is way, way too high — given the policy lags, that really would force a contraction," he said. "But my feeling is that when I look at sensitive commodity prices, asset prices, housing prices, even rental prices, I see declines, not increases," he said.

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