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But much more must be done and, as with most change, it’s important to start by admitting there’s a problem. The phenomenon of Democrats dismissing the polls in favor of misplaced optimism has been termed “hopium” by data journalist Nate Silver. Polling denial is not unanimous in the party, as many Democrats are reportedly in a full-blown “freakout” over Biden’s chances. It’s essential they admit the polling is correct, because if Biden is winning, there is little need to change course. This means these groups likely share top concerns with moderate voters generally.
Persons: Liam Kerr, Joe Biden’s, Liam Kerr Liam Kerr, there’s, Nate Silver, Simon Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Biden, it’s, Trump, Biden’s, Harry Enten, , , , Hilary Clinton, Tom Suozzi, George Santos ’ Organizations: GOP, CNN, Democratic, Trump, Biden, Gallup, Black Democrats, White Democrats, Harvard Youth, Gaza, “ Biden, New York Times, Trump Republicans, Republican, NBC, Twitter, Facebook, Chicago Democratic National Convention Locations: Pennsylvania , Wisconsin, Michigan, Siena, New York,
RFK Jr. may have already peaked in the presidential race
  + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
CNN —Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is perhaps the biggest X factor remaining in the presidential race. That’s better than any third-party or independent candidate has polled in an individual survey at this stage in the cycle since Ross Perot in 1996. Biden is likely aware that Kennedy voters tend to skew younger – a demographic that traditionally leans Democratic. Perhaps more concerning for the independent candidate is what’s going on under the hood. He’d previously never had a net negative favorable rating in the double digits.
Persons: Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kennedy –, Republicans –, Kennedy, Ross Perot, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden, Jill Stein, isn’t, He’d, Marquette, Kevin Mohatt, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson, Perot, Johnson, Kennedy aren’t Organizations: CNN — Independent, Republicans, White House, Quinnipiac University, Marquette University Law School, Democratic, Fox News, Quinnipiac, Reuters, Green Party, Democrat, Republican, May’s, Biden, Trump, Marquette, Libertarian, Electoral Locations: Marquette, May’s Quinnipiac, Quinnipiac, he’s, Aurora , Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada
Read the full story on Biden’s announcement from CNN’s White House team. Trump and Biden remain very far apartIt’s still very true that their rhetoric on immigrants remains very different. “I’ll never refer to immigrants as poisoning the blood of a country,” Biden said at the White House. Expect challengesThe American Civil Liberties Union, which challenged Trump’s border actions when he was president, now plans to challenge Biden. “We continue to work closely with our Mexican neighbors instead of attacking Mexico,” Biden said at the White House, drawing a distinction between his approach and Trump’s.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump’s, Trump, Biden, Donald Trump, Go Nakamura, Reuters Biden, , ” Biden, ” Lee Gelernt, CNN’s Rosa Flores, Flores, Richard Cortez, ” Cortez, Priscilla Alvarez, Trump’s, Mexico’s, Harry Enten Organizations: CNN, White, Republicans, CNN’s White House, Trump, Reuters, Republican, American Civil Liberties Union, Immigrants, Rights, CNBC, Biden, Congressional Research Service, Department of Homeland Security Locations: Mexico, Eagle, , Texas, Piedras Negras, Hidalgo , Texas, Springs , California, Hidalgo County, United States, Iran
Why the Negro League stats belong in the MLB record books
  + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +12 min
Fortunately, we got to see other NLB players join an integrated MLB a short time into their careers. Bettmann Archive/Getty ImagesFormer NLB players who joined the integrated MLB got on base more frequently (.361) than the average (.324). Hulton Archive/Getty Images Robinson was a formidable athlete in college, lettering in four sports at UCLA. Bettmann Archive/Getty Images Robinson poses in the dugout with Dodgers teammates as he makes his historic debut on April 15, 1947. Rogers Photo Archive/Getty Images Robinson leaps into the air to try to turn a double play in 1952.
Persons: , Major League Baseball’s, Neil Paine, , Todd Peterson, White, Satchel Paige, Dizzy Dean, Mark Rucker, of Famer Dizzy Dean, , Dean, Paige, Willie Mays, Mays, Henry “ Hank ” Aaron, Aaron didn’t, Wes Westrum's, It’s, Don Newcombe, Jackie Robinson, Robinson, Rachel Isum, Johnny, Jorgensen, Harold, Pee Wee, Reese, Eddie Stanky, Rickey, Rogers, Richard Nixon, Paul Schutzer, Edd Roush, Bob Feller, Bill McKechnie, Cliff Welch, Ed Sullivan, Rachel, — Jackie Jr, David, Sharon —, Robert Riger, Jackie Robinson's, Larry Doby –, Hall, Hall of Famer –, Josh Gibson, Gibson’s, Gibson, Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Ruth, We’ll, Larry Doby, Stanley Weston, Doby, Cobb, Grover Cleveland Alexander, Walter Johnson, they’ll Organizations: CNN, Negro League Baseball, Major League, MLB, Negro League, Wrigley Field, White MLB, of Famer, White, Birmingham Black Barons, Indianapolis, National Leagues, New York Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, Polo, Bettmann, Getty, National League, Brooklyn Dodgers, Hulton, UCLA, US Army, Kansas City Monarchs, Negro Leagues, Sporting, Montreal Royals, Dodgers, New York Yankees, GOP, Republican, Hall of Fame, CBS, Freedom, American League, Hall of Famer, Baseball, Cleveland Indians, NL, AL Locations: Chicago, , New York, Cairo , Georgia, Pasadena , California, Los Angeles, New York, Stamford , Connecticut, Williamston , North Carolina, Bettmann, Anaheim , California
But the idea of simply placing Kennedy atop the Libertarian Party ticket to marry his momentum with their organization left Kennedy with an embarrassing loss at the Libertarian Party convention in Washington. About half – 51% – said they would support Trump in a two-way matchup, compared with 37% who said they would pick Biden. The last third-party candidate to win a state and get Electoral Votes was George Wallace, who won Southern states in 1968. The only third-party candidate to outperform a major party candidate was former President Teddy Roosevelt, who outpolled Republicans after he failed to get their nomination in 1912 and then ran as a third-party candidate. But rather than focus on the relatively few people who turn out for a third-party candidate, why not look at the large number of people who don’t take part in elections at all?
Persons: CNN —, Donald Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Chase Oliver, Kennedy, Trump, Nicole Shanahan, Shanahan, – Kennedy, Biden, CNN’s Harry Enten, , RFK, Ross Perot, George Wallace, Teddy Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Oliver, Jo Jorgensen, Gary Johnson’s, CNN’s Aaron Pellish, Pellish, Kennedy don’t, Bob Barr, Bill Weld, Gary Johnson, Barr, Weld, Ron Paul, Paul, Jill Stein, Ralph Nader, Al Gore, George W, Karl Rove, Stein, Hillary Clinton, Rove, Libertarian’s Jorgensen, Johnson Organizations: CNN, Republican, Libertarian Party, Trump, Google, Biden, SSRS, Quinnipiac University, RFK Jr, Electoral, Southern, Democrat, Libertarian, Federal Reserve, GOP, Republican Massachusetts gov, Green Party, Street Journal, Democratic, Pew Research Center Locations: Washington, Republican Massachusetts, Florida, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona , Georgia
Senate Democrats (including independents who caucus with them) hold 23 seats up for election this year; Republicans hold 11. Positive signs for DemocratsBut is the race for the Senate really over if Republicans just win West Virginia? Democratic Senate candidates seem to be at least tied or ahead in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Of course, Democratic Senate candidates outrunning the top of the ticket is nothing new. For Democrats to have any chance of holding the Senate, Republicans would have to lose all these Senate races.
Persons: we’ve, Donald Trump, Trump, Democratic Sen, Joe Manchin, Simone Pathe, it’s, we’re, Joe Biden, Biden, Sens, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Tammy Baldwin, Kari Lake, Lake, Nevada’s, Missouri’s Todd Akin, Mehmet Oz, Mark Kelly, Larry Hogan, I’m, Organizations: CNN, White, Senate, Republicans, Democratic, Republican, Republican Senate, Democrats, Florida, GOP, West Virginia, New York Times, Siena College, Biden Locations: nonjudicial, West Virginia, Texas, West, Arizona , Michigan, Montana , Nevada , Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Senate, Maine, Arizona , Nevada , Montana and Ohio, Montana, Ohio, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Maryland –
Trump’s lead jumped to 9 points over Biden when Kennedy, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West were included in the ballot test. (To make the debate stage, candidates must also appear on state ballots totaling at least 270 electoral votes. I should point out that third party and independent candidates tend to see their polling decline over the course of the campaign. Now, it’s quite possible that Kennedy voters will stick by him the more they hear about his positions. National polling for the most part has, after all, shown Kennedy voters prefer Trump to Biden, though not uniformly.
Persons: Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kennedy, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Ross Perot, Perot, Biden, Trump’s, Jill Stein, Cornel West, Ralph Nader, Gary Johnson, I’m, , Trump, Kennedy –, Kennedy “, Kennedy’s, we’ve, they’re, Don’t Organizations: CNN, Trump, Biden, Green Party, Cornel, Green, Libertarian Party, NBC, NBC News, Monmouth University, Quinnipiac University Locations: Monmouth
CNN —Joe Biden’s Democratic base has been divided over the Israel-Hamas war. To some, including people within Biden’s own party, the public demonstrations against the war in Gaza remind them of the Vietnam War protests. A mere 2% answered with some version of the Israel-Hamas war (e.g., the Middle East conflict). An unpopular warThis is dramatically different from what we saw in 1968, when the Vietnam War forced President Lyndon Johnson to abandon his reelection bid. Only a small fraction of that polling decline can be attributed to Biden’s war response.
Persons: Joe Biden’s, Biden, That’s, Lyndon Johnson, it’s, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden’s Organizations: CNN, Joe Biden’s Democratic, NBC, Gallup, Republican, Trump, Black South, ABC, Quinnipiac Locations: Israel, Gaza, Vietnam, Africa’s, South Africa
Trump’s success might make you believe that he has turned the conventional wisdom on its head – that somehow, his legal troubles are helping him politically. There isn’t much of a sign that Trump’s legal woes are helping him among the wider electorate, even if they aren’t hurting him necessarily. Consider Trump’s polling against President Joe Biden. You might think that Trump would be gaining against Biden, if the cases against Trump were helping him. It’s not clear whether the money Trump’s raising because of appeals to his base during his legal troubles is offsetting the amount his committees are spending.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Biden, pollster, pollsters, don’t, Trump’s, isn’t, he’s, I’m Organizations: CNN, Republican, Biden, Trump, Marist College, Reuters, New York Times, Siena College, NBC, Quinnipiac University, Marquette University Law School, Times, Financial Times Locations: York, Quinnipiac, New York
It turns out that I undersold Greenberg; he was one of the greatest hitters of all time and gives Sandy Koufax a run at being the greatest Jewish baseball player of all time. By that time, at age 35, he was well past most baseball players’ prime. The fact that Greenberg was a hero to young Jewish baseball fans (like my father), a great American and incredible human being is not under dispute. Greenberg remains one of only 10 baseball players to ever hit 58 home runs in a single season. Greenberg ranks 62nd among every position player on this metric since major league baseball began way back in the 1870s, according to Baseball-Reference (and different outlets compute WAR7 slightly differently).
Persons: Noam, “ Hank Greenberg, ” Noam, undersold Greenberg, Sandy Koufax, Greenberg, Hitler, Koufax, , ’ ” Greenberg, Hank Greenberg, AP Greenberg, Jackie Robinson, Heck, Greenberg didn’t, Aaron Robinson, It’s, , Koufax’s Organizations: CNN —, Yom Kippur, Detroit Tigers, Detroit Free, Rosh, Tigers, US Army, Japan, , Army, AP, Baseball Locations: Egypt, America, Europe, Yom, Yom Kippur, Pearl
CNN —Two years ago, I could never have predicted the hype which surrounds tonight’s NCAA women’s basketball Final Four. Women’s college basketball is not just on the map for casual fans, it’s a star on the map – thanks at least, in large part, to Iowa star Caitlin Clark. Women’s college basketball is beating America’s pastime. More people have been searching women’s college basketball than for US President Joe Biden. Check the prices for the men’s and women’s college basketball Final Four.
Persons: didn’t, Muffet McGraw, it’s, Caitlin Clark, Let’s, Angel Reese’s, Clark, Reese, Andy Lyons, Dee Vanderhoef, Rebecca Gratz, Joe Biden Organizations: CNN, NCAA, Angel Reese’s LSU, ESPN, Iowa, LSU, Stanley, ABC, Iowa Hawkeyes, Holy Cross Crusaders, UConn, USC, Google Locations: Iowa
CNN —I can’t recall a recent baseball story that has captured the public imagination like the current one involving Los Angeles Dodgers phenom Shohei Ohtani, his former translator Ippei Mizuhara and gambling. That said, assuming Ohtani has done nothing wrong, America’s pastime will emerge from this situation mostly unscathed. Ohtani stalls at second base after hitting a double during the first inning of a game against the St. Louis Cardinals. Yes, one team is favored to win, but we don’t know that team will win for sure. And if it occurs involving someone as beloved as Ohtani, it could be a disaster for not just baseball, but sports around the globe.
Persons: Shohei Ohtani, Ippei, , Ohtani, Will Ireton, Kirby Lee, Reuters Ohtani, it’s, Mike Trout, didn’t, I’ll, won’t, Sean M, I’m, It’s, they’ve, We’ve, Brad Bohannon, Bohannon, Jontay Porter, bettors, Porter, ” Porter wasn’t, Stu Foster, Sandro Tonali, Phil Mickelson, Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe Jackson –, Rose, Jackson, Tyrese Haliburton, JB Bickerstaff, Charlie Baker, Ezra Shaw, Rob Manfred, David, Goliath Organizations: CNN, Los Angeles Dodgers, Major League, Dodgers, USA, Sports, Reuters, League, Baseball, St, Louis Cardinals, American, NFL, Former University of Alabama, Alabama, Toronto Raptors, Italian Football Federation, England’s Football Association, Newcastle United, Major League Baseball, Cincinnati Reds, Black Sox, Chicago White Sox, Famers, Bettmann, Indiana Pacers, Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA, Getty Images, American Gaming Association, Census, MLB, MLB Network Locations: United States, Nevada, Bohannon, Italy, Tonaly, England
Why it will be tough for Biden to defeat Trump
  + stars: | 2024-03-09 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Joe Biden and Donald Trump are set to face off in the first presidential rematch since 1956. It’s that a lead of any margin for Trump was unheard of during the 2020 campaign – not a single poll that met CNN’s standards for publication showed Trump leading Biden nationally. It’s possible that if consumer sentiment continues to improve or border crossings decline, Biden could pick up steam against Trump. This means that it isn’t enough for Biden merely to win voters who dislike both men. For more people to turn against Trump, Biden’s best hope may lie with the four criminal indictments against the former president.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, It’s, Biden, Trump, KFF, , I’ve, isn’t, it’s, I’m, George H.W, George H.W . Bush Organizations: CNN, Trump, The New York Times, Siena College, CBS, Fox News, Street, Biden, Electoral College (, Democratic, Electoral College, New, New York Times Locations: Electoral College ( Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona , Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, George H.W ., New York
New York CNN —The New York Times is facing a sustained wave of backlash. It is your agenda.”The Times is, of course, far from the only news organization that has faced criticism over how it has covered the 2024 race. There is a mountain of thorny issues at the doorstep of outlets like The Times — and often there is no clear answer. For example, after the 2020 election, the conventional wisdom was that the press should largely ignore Trump’s antics. “But if Democrats lose to Trump after all THAT coverage, the fault will not be in the media, but in themselves.”
Persons: Gray, Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden’s, ” Jeff Jarvis, CUNY Craig, ” Jarvis, MSNBC can’t, newsrooms, Biden, Harry Enten, Enten, , ” Clara Jeffery, Mother Jones, , ” Bill Carter, Carter, ” Carter Organizations: New York CNN, The New York Times, The, Times, Biden, Trump, Siena College, CUNY, CUNY Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism, “ NY Times, The Times, ., CNN, MSNBC Locations: New York, American
What to watch in South Carolina’s Republican primary
  + stars: | 2024-02-24 | by ( Gregory Krieg | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
CNN —Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign has for weeks been looking ahead to the Republican primary in South Carolina, her home state where she was twice elected governor. The primary in South Carolina is open, meaning Democrats and independents can cast ballots in the GOP race. The former president does not need to open a larger tent in order to win in South Carolina. It’s obviously not insurmountable, and with 50 at stake in South Carolina, Haley could theoretically jump into the lead. South Carolina awards 29 of its delegates to the statewide winner and three apiece to the leader in each of its seven congressional districts.
Persons: Nikki Haley’s, Donald Trump, Trump, Haley, , Betsy Ankney, ” Haley, I’ll, “ I’m, Nikki Haley, , Nancy Mace, That’s, Mace, Michael Haley, Jake Tapper, South Carolina –, Harry Enten, It’s, it’s, CNN’s Ethan Cohen Organizations: CNN, Republican, Virgin Islands, Palmetto State, Trump, South Carolina National Guard, Confederate, statehouse, GOP, Granite, White, South Carolina Locations: South Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virgin, Palmetto, “ South Carolina, Carolina, Coast, Michigan, Texas, Virginia, Super, Charleston, Richland, California
CNN —The South Carolina Republican presidential primary is usually the most important contest of the nominating season. Since 1980, the only Republican to win the nomination without winning South Carolina was Mitt Romney in 2012. While Haley is unlikely to take South Carolina, she is definitely outperforming her national baseline. Both counties have relatively high levels of college graduates, who have been most hostile to the former president in GOP primaries historically. Trump winning college graduates in the South Carolina primary would match what we’re seeing in national polling of the Republican electorate.
Persons: Mitt Romney, Nikki Haley’s, Donald Trump, Haley, Bernie Sanders ’, Trump, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, didn’t, Will Organizations: CNN, South Carolina Republican, GOP, Republican, South Carolina, Trump, Republicans, Marquette University Law School, Quinnipiac University, South Carolina Republicans, Iowa GOP, Marquette, Quinnipiac, White Locations: Michigan, Florida, South Carolina, Ted Cruz ( Texas, John Kasich ( Ohio, Sanders, Vermont, Charleston, Richland, Columbia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Quinnipiac, Utah, Washington
Taylor Swift performs at the Staples Center in Los Angeles in 2015. From Taylor Swift On her birthday in 2019, Swift shared this photo of herself as a child. From Taylor Swift A 13-year-old Swift sings the National Anthem before an NBA game in Philadelphia in 2002. John Mabangalo/Pool/Getty Images Swift performs during a sold-out show at New York's Madison Square Garden in 2009. Ethan Miller/Getty Images Swift performs onstage at the Staples Center in Los Angeles during her 1989 tour in 2015.
Persons: CNN — It’s, Donald Trump, Taylor Swift, Joe Biden’s, Swift, she’s, Trump, Oprah Winfrey, Michael Smerconish, Winfrey, Barack Obama, Obama, Hillary Clinton, Christopher Polk, Scott, Andrea Swift, Jesse D, Tim McGraw, Kevin Winter, John Mabangalo, Chad Batka, Bryan Bedder, Larry Busacca, Miley Cyrus, Lucas Till, Hannah Montana, Sam Emerson, Everett, Jonas, Frank Masi, Taylor, I'm, West, Beyonce, Jeff Kravitz, Lucy Nicholson, Christopher Morris, Josh Haner, Kevin Mazur, James Taylor, Charles Sykes, Matt Sayles, Mark J, Terrill, Invision, Jimmy Fallon, Douglas Gorenstein, Nicholas Harvey, Kanye West, Kim Kardashian, Laraine Newman, Bill Hader, Taran Killam, Kristen Wiig, Keenan Thompson, Fred Armisen, Kerry Washington, Betty White, Bradley Cooper, Dana Edelson, Andrea, Ethan Miller, Tim Boyles, Selena Gomez, Jordan Strauss, Mike Coppola, John Shearer, Andrew Lloyd Webber, Brandon Urie, Katy Perry, Republic Records Jack Antonoff, Aaron Dessner, Will Heath, Seth Wenig, Terence Rushin, Travis Kelce, Patrick Smith, propping, It’s, birther, There’s Organizations: CNN, Monmouth University, Marist College, Trump, Democratic, Biden, Staples Center, NBA, of Country, Garden, New York Times, New York's Rockefeller Center, Walt Disney Co, Kanye, Madison, MTV, NBC, ACM, Academy of Country, Getty, New York's Metropolitan Museum of Art, Universal Pictures, Coachella, Republic Records, New York University, Kansas City Chiefs, Chiefs, AFC, Super, Swift, Republicans, NFL, Republican Locations: America, Monmouth, Los Angeles, West Reading , Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Las Vegas, New York, Auburn Hills , Michigan, Newark , New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Frankfurt, Germany, London, Arlington , Texas, Tampa, Chicago, Atlanta, United States, Hawaii
The trial date in his New York hush money case was confirmed to be March 25. Trump’s lawyers are hoping to get the Georgia case thrown out or at least delayed over Willis’ conduct. That well could be the case if the New York case finishes first, which looks most likely given that it will probably start first. Of course, the Georgia case is currently on an uncertain timeline with a lead prosecutor who may not end up being the prosecutor who brings the case to trial. The bottom line is that no one wants to be on trial, but if Trump had to pick, he’d much rather go first with the New York case.
Persons: Donald Trump, Fani Willis, Willis ’, Trump, Stormy Daniels, Alvin Bragg’s, Joe Biden, he’s, Willis Organizations: CNN, Quinnipiac University, Quinnipiac, Capitol, White, AP, Georgia, Trump, Biden Locations: New York, Fulton County, Georgia, York
The special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District to succeed the infamous George Santos offers perhaps the best chance to test Democrats’ theory ahead of the presidential election. The candidate favored by Democrats won a Wisconsin Supreme Court race, which gave the more liberal justices a majority on that court. Of course, we’re now in a presidential election year, and there are also signs that these off-year results may have been pointing at something important. All the other competitive races were state elections, and voting patterns between US House and presidential elections are far more correlated than they are for state offices and presidential elections. Moreover, that 3-point Republican edge in 2022 looks a lot like Trump’s current advantage over Biden among registered voters nationally.
Persons: Joe Biden’s, George Santos, Tom Suozzi, Mazi Pilip, Biden, Santos, we’re, Donald Trump, Pilip, hasn’t, there’s Organizations: CNN — Democrats, Congressional District, Biden, Newsday, Siena, Republicans, Senate, Kentucky, Virginia Senate, Virginia House, Democrats, Wisconsin Supreme, Voters, Democratic, New York Times, Republican Locations: New York’s, Nassau, Long, Nassau County, Queens, Long Island, Virginia, Wisconsin, York
The final poll from Iowa’s premier pollster, Ann Selzer, has Trump at 48% followed by former South Carolina Gov. If the final outcome Monday night mirrors the poll, Trump will have won the highest Iowa GOP caucus vote share for a non-incumbent ever. A Haley win in the first primary race in the nation would indicate that Trump is not invincible. He did more than 5 points better than where his final Iowa poll had him. (His 28-point margin over Bradley was the same as the final poll found, as both Bradley and Gore won some undecided voters.)
Persons: Donald Trump, Ann Selzer, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Trump, , They’re, Haley, Chris Christie –, George W, Bush, didn’t, Steve Forbes, John McCain, Patrick Buchanan, Bob Dole, Buchanan, McCain, Gary Hart, Walter Mondale, Hart, Haley isn’t, DeSantis, Al Gore, Gore, Bill Bradley, Bradley, Trump . Gore, Dole Organizations: CNN, Trump, South Carolina Gov, Florida Gov, Iowa GOP, Granite State, New, New Jersey Gov, University of New, Dole, Democratic, Republican, Trump . Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, Granite, New Jersey, University of New Hampshire, Hampshire, Granite State, Trump, South Carolina, Florida
No one behind in the national polls by as much as Haley at this point in the primary calendar has ever ended up winning the nomination. A late October Des Moines Register poll had Trump at 43% to Haley and DeSantis each at 16% in Iowa. They both went on to win Iowa. Haley, however, doesn’t need to win Iowa to secure the GOP nomination. Hart’s overperformance in Iowa was a big reason he went to win the New Hampshire primary in 1984.
Persons: CNN — We’ve, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Haley, She’s, Ron DeSantis, Trump, DeSantis, It’s, Republican George H.W, Republican George H.W . Bush, Dick Gephardt, Gary Hart, Walter Mondale, Hart’s, Republican Pat Buchanan, Hart, it’s, Chris Christie, Christie, Mondale, Jesse Jackson, John Glenn, George McGovern –, Trump’s Organizations: CNN, Republican, South, Trump, Florida Gov, Des Moines Register, Iowa, GOP, Hawkeye State, Granite State, New, University of New, Winthrop University Locations: South Carolina, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, That’s, Republican George H.W ., Hampshire, Granite, Granite State, University of New Hampshire, New Jersey, Haley’s
Younger Democrats are far more likely than older Democrats to view Israel skeptically when it comes to this war as well as the larger geopolitical context. It’s the inverse among older Democrats. Perhaps not surprisingly, these younger Democrats don’t think we should be supplying military aid to Israel in its war with Hamas. He won voters younger than 35 by more than 20 points in 2020. It’s not clear that Biden’s handling of the war is causing his decreased backing from younger voters, but it can’t be helping him.
Persons: Joe Biden, It’s, Israel, Biden, don’t, Quinnipiac, Donald Trump, – Trump Organizations: CNN, Democratic, Quinnipiac University, Democrats, Hamas, Health, Israel, Republicans Locations: Israel, Gaza, America
All five give Trump an advantage of 2 to 4 points over Biden among registered or likely voters. Consider the New York Times/Siena College polls released earlier this month from the six closest states Biden won: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan. A massive 71% of registered voters in those states said Biden was too old to be an effective president. Back in 2020, half that percentage of registered voters (36%) said Biden was too old to be an effective president. The fact that so many voters feel Biden is too old makes sense given that he is the oldest president ever.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden, Franklin Roosevelt, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Obama, I’m, don’t, Grover Cleveland Organizations: CNN, Electoral, Biden, CBS News, Fox News, Marquette University Law School, Quinnipiac University ., Trump, eventual, Democratic, Quinnipiac, Pew Research, Fox, New York Times Locations: Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Israel, Siena, Georgia, Arizona , Wisconsin , Pennsylvania
He, along with other non-major-party candidates, has a real chance to affect the outcome of the 2024 election. Perot is a bit of an exception in that independent or third-party candidates usually fade as an election nears. George Wallace topped out at 21% in pre-election polling as a third-party candidate before picking up 14% when the votes were cast. Given all that, it’s no surprise we’re seeing other independent and third-party candidates jumping or potentially jumping into the 2024 race. He was entertaining the idea of running as a third-party candidate earlier this year.
Persons: Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kennedy, Ross Perot, Perot, John Anderson, George Wallace, Biden, Trump, They’re, Democrat Hillary Clinton, it’s, Independent Cornel, Jill Stein, West Virginia Sen, Joe Manchin, Manchin, don’t Organizations: CNN, Democrat, Republican, Quinnipiac University, Alabama Gov, New York Times, Siena College, Trump :, The Times, Trump, Times, Independent, Independent Cornel West, Green Party, Clinton, West Locations: Siena, Trump, Trump : Georgia, Arizona , Wisconsin , Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, West Virginia
CNN —Why should you care about Tuesday’s elections in Ohio, Kentucky, Mississippi and Virginia? The storylines to watch include abortion, disinformation, dirty money and a test of that elusive but essential creature known as the red state Democrat. John Avlon CNNLet’s start with the Buckeye State, where abortion rights are on the ballot. Beshear is also the rare red state Democrat who can connect with rural voters — something Democrats desperately need more of. Meanwhile in Mississippi, there’s another governor’s race that The Washington Post is calling the most competitive in 20 years.
Persons: John Avlon, , there’s, Dobbs, There’s, Andy Beshear, Daniel Cameron, Mitch McConnell, Sen, Rand Paul, Beshear, James Carville, Cameron, McConnell, Tate Reeves hasn’t, Haley Barbour, Reeves, ” That’s, Elvis Presley —, Brandon Presley, Presley, Harry Enten, bode, , Glenn Younkin, Ron DeSantis ’ Organizations: CNN, John Avlon CNN, Buckeye State, Republican, Ohio Senate, Buckeye, GOP, Democratic, Washington, Republicans, Mississippi Today, don’t, Virginia Legislature, Twitter, Facebook Republican, Florida Gov, Virginia GOP Locations: “ Lincoln, Ohio , Kentucky , Mississippi, Virginia, Montana , Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, Mississippi, Florida
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