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☆ U.S. recession where interest rates rise is unlikely, says Evercore's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. recession where interest rates rise is unlikely, says Evercore's Krishna GuhaMaya MacGuineas, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president, and Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI head of global policy, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming government shutdown deadline, increasing U.S. debt, and more.

Persons: Evercore's Krishna Guha Maya MacGuineas, Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: U.S, Federal

☆ Fed's Powell to take the stage amid a suddenly choppy landscape
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the release of the Fed policy decision to leave interest rates unchanged, at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S, September 20, 2023. Powell's appearance comes less than 48 hours before the beginning of the traditional quiet period ahead of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee's meeting on Oct. 31-Nov. 1. Many in the poll offered the caveat that if progress on inflation stalls out or reverses, the Fed would not hesitate to resume raising rates. Waller said as much on Wednesday: "If the real economy continues showing underlying strength and inflation appears to stabilize or reaccelerate, more policy tightening is likely needed despite the recent run-up in longer-term rates." Reporting by Dan Burns and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Evelyn Hockstein, Powell, Philip, Jefferson, Krishna Guha, Christopher Waller, Waller, Dan Burns, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, U.S, Economic, of New, Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, New York, of New York, U.S

Describing that anticipated outcome while keeping open the possibility of future rate increases will be one challenge Powell faces. Another will be discounting speculation about the prospect of rate cuts or changes to other aspects of Fed policy, such as the ongoing reduction of the central bank's balance sheet. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is just about six-tenths of a percentage point below the Fed's policy rate; when the gap between the two shifts from negative to positive is when monetary policy gets perhaps its truest test. Recent data on balance don't fully back the Fed's view of a gently slowing economy and steadily easing inflation. "Assuming the economy keeps growing ... the Fed will get back to hiking," Blitz said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Larry Meyer, Meyer, Krishna Guha, Powell's, Christopher Waller, Waller, Steven Blitz, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S ., Economic, of New, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Evercore ISI, Hamas, U.S . House, Graphics, TS Lombard, Thomson Locations: U.S . Congress, of New York, Israel, Palestinian, Washington, U.S

"If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," Logan said. The Dallas Fed president said the economy has been stronger than she had expected, as has been the labor market, and that inflation was still too high despite progress in lowering it. But because Logan ran the New York Fed's bond portfolio for years before she took the top job at the Dallas Fed, her views on what's driving long-term rates higher could carry considerable weight as policymakers weigh their next moves. "The expectation of lower Federal Reserve asset holdings over time implies that other investors will need to hold more long-duration securities, which appears to be one factor among the many contributing to higher term premiums," Logan said. Figuring out how much of the higher long-term rates is due to higher term premiums is complex, she added.

Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Mary Daly, Julia Coronado, Lorie, she's, Krishna Guha, Guha, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association for Business Economics, Market, San Francisco Fed, Evercore ISI, Dallas Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, York

☆ Global central banks unite in "higher for longer" credo
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The so-called "higher for longer" mantra is now the official stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as being echoed by monetary policy-makers from Oslo to Tapei. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers had a similar message on Wednesday. Turkey's central bank confirmed its hawkish turn while in Asia, Taiwan's central bank flagged continued tight policy. Reuters Graphics"TIPPING POINT"Belgian central bank chief and ECB board member Pierre Wunsch - an early voice urging tougher central bank action to counter inflation from end-2021 - said on Thursday that monetary policy was now at the right level. That said, the prospect that global interest rates are pretty close to peak will be of huge relief to emerging economies suffering from heavy debt servicing loads.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, COVID lockdowns, Jerome, Powell, Krishna Guha, Howard Schneider, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, U.S . Federal, Swiss National Bank, South African Reserve Bank, People's Bank of, Reuters, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, Economics, Sterling, Swiss, United, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Central, Oslo, Tapei, Europe, Norway, Sweden, Asia, People's Bank of China, Belgian, United States, Ukraine, Washington, Frankfurt, London, Stockholm, Zurich, Ankara

☆ What higher-for-longer Fed policy will mean for the markets and economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

For Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who spoke to the press after the two-day session ended, "Resetting market expectations about real rates was his most important mission," Colas said. But this week's meeting indicated that Fed officials expect rates to stay higher for longer. The thinking there is that if inflation moves lower, the Fed won't need to keep nominal rates as high because real rates will be rising. "But, until one or both of those things happen, higher real rates are the Fed's strategy to tame inflation," Colas said. "This tells us that current equity market churn is unlikely to end until bond markets have settled out."

Persons: wasn't, Nicholas Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, Krishna Guha, Claudia Sahm, Guha, Powell, Powell's, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Mericle, Goldman doesn't, Mericle, DataTrek's Colas Organizations: DataTrek Research, Companies, Evercore ISI, U.S ., Fed

☆ Fed's higher for longer decision is due to unemployment data, not inflation: Fmr. CEA Chair Furman
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's higher for longer decision is due to unemployment data, not inflation: Fmr. CEA Chair FurmanJason Furman, Former Council of Economic Advisers Chair and Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI Vice Chairman, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged this month.

Persons: Furman Jason Furman, Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: CEA, Furman, of Economic

☆ Affirmative Action Is Still in Effect. For Men.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Susan Dominus | More About Susan Dominus | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

The trend continued upward, so much so that by 1999 some universities had admissions policies that explicitly favored men. In doing so, the school managed to maintain a ratio of 45 percent men to 55 percent women. The young women’s lawyers argued that the extra points for men violated both the equal-protection clause and Title IX, which guarantees equal educational opportunities for men and women. But Title IX does not prohibit gender-based affirmative action in admissions at all schools. That Title IX exemption still stands, allowing private colleges and universities to privilege men during the admissions process.

Persons: Katie Lew, Marie Bigham, Pérez, ’ ”, — that’s, ”, Sourav Guha, “, You’d, ’ ” Jason England Organizations: University of Georgia, Georgia, system’s, Regents, Princeton, Trinity College, National Association for College, ”, Wesleyan University, Carnegie Mellon, Wesleyan

☆ Powell's tone was hawkish but his comments were very moderate, says Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell's tone was hawkish but his comments were very moderate, says Evercore ISI's Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI head of global policy, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' with reaction to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at Jackson Hole.

Persons: Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha Krishna Guha, Evercore, Jerome Powell's, Jackson

☆ The Fed could be very close to achieving one of its main policy goals
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

If the Federal Reserve's main policy goal these days is to tighten financial conditions, then it should be pretty close to achieving its goals, according to an Evercore ISI analysis. In fact, the Fed recently set up its own measure — the Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth , or FCI-G. "The Fed will have to consider the tightening in financial conditions when setting rates in coming months, including the decision whether to hike in September." "Our base is that the Fed will not raise rates further and developments in financial variables reinforce our call." Market pricing is largely in line with the call that the Fed halts its hiking cycle after raising rates 11 times since March 2022.

Persons: Evervore, Krishna Guha, Guha, Marco Casiraghi Organizations: Federal, U.S ., Fed, FCI, Evercore ISI, Treasury, Traders, Group, Citi, Cleveland

A trader works, as a screen displays a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. The Fed watches an array of asset prices in its monitoring of the economy, including stocks, home prices, and corporate bonds. Reuters GraphicsAs of the Fed's July meeting, most Fed officials said they thought rates would need to increase more, with key measures of inflation still more than double the Fed's 2% target. Normally, Fed officials would be expected to see that sort of economic strength as a reason inflation might stay high and require further rate increases. "It may take sustained higher 10-year yields to slow the economy and the housing sector in particular to re-attain 2% target inflation," wrote economists from Citi.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Krishna Guha, Guha, Howard Schneider, Deepa Babington Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Stock, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, New York Fed, Citi, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

[1/5] A security force trooper rides a vehicle on a highway at Torbung village in Churachandpur district in the northeastern state of Manipur, India, July 24. Modi's first comments on the violence in Manipur came last week, over two months after the trouble started in early May. The data show that in the first week of the violence in early May, 77 Kukis were killed compared to 10 Meiteis. According to government estimates, 2,780 weapons stolen from the state armoury, including assault rifles, sniper guns and pistols, remain with the Meiteis, while the Kukis have 156. Reporting by Krishn Kaushik in Manipur; Editing by YP Rajesh and Raju GopalakrishnanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Adnan Abidi, Modi, Narendra Modi, Ramachandra Guha, Guha, Jangminlun Touthang, Modi's, Biren Singh, Meiteis, Kukis, Haopu Gangte, “, ” Gangte, ” Pramot Singh, Meitei, ”, Krishn Kaushik, YP Rajesh, Raju Gopalakrishnan Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Kuki, YP, Thomson Locations: Torbung, Churachandpur district, Manipur, India, India's Manipur, Kuki, Imphal, Manipur's, Bishnupur, Kangvai, Myanmar, “

[1/2] European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates again next week following similar positive inflation news. Meanwhile on Friday, the Bank of Japan opened the debate on plans to bring its ultra-loose policies to an end. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate now stands in the 5.25%-5.50% range, while the ECB's main rate is 3.75%. While bond markets took a cue from the faster growth, and pushed yields on Treasuries higher, the days of coordinated global tightening may be numbered.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lagarde, Krishna Guha, Howard Schneider, Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi, Leika, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, WASHINGTON, U.S . Federal Reserve, The Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Reuters, U.S, Graphics, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT, TOKYO, Europe, United States, Graphics New, Tokyo

☆ It's important the Fed signals it has a high bar for cutting rates, says Harvard's Jason Furman
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's important the Fed signals it has a high bar for cutting rates, says Harvard's Jason FurmanJason Furman, Fmr. Council of Economic Advisers Chairman and Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI Vice Chairman, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the Federal Reserve's decision to raise rates another 25 basis points.

Persons: Harvard's Jason Furman Jason Furman, Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: Fmr, Economic

A person familiar with the matter said he was Rajaratnam, who was sentenced in 2011 to 11 years in prison and was released early in 2019. Starting in 2018, Tidwell began receiving undisclosed benefits from Rajaratnam and a close friend and business associate of Rajaratnam, according to charging papers and the person familiar with the matter. Later, after Rajaratnam was released from prison, Tidwell in 2020 received a $50,000 loan from the onetime inmate's friend to buy a house. Prosecutors said he lied on a bank loan application about the source of that money. Reporting by Nate Raymond in Boston; Editing by David Bario and Chris ReeseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Raj Rajaratnam, William Tidwell, Rajaratnam, Prosecutors, Goldman Sachs, Tidwell, Samidh Guha, Rajaratnam's, Brad Bailey, Nate Raymond, David Bario, Chris Reese Organizations: eBay, Galleon Group, Federal Medical Center Devens, Google, Thomson Locations: BOSTON, Massachusetts, Boston, Ayer , Massachusetts, York

☆ U.S. jobs report shows the labor market is cooling, says Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. jobs report shows the labor market is cooling, says Evercore ISI's Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Fed's next move after a cool jobs report.

Persons: Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha Krishna Guha, Evercore

☆ The Fed has rolled out a new index for gauging the economy that could have big implications
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve is changing the way it looks at "financial conditions," a move that could have important ramifications for policy ahead. The Fed has been using a series of interest rate increases to tighten financial conditions and, ultimately, to bring down inflation. Essentially, the move allows the Fed to distance itself from other financial conditions models, such as those formulated by Goldman Sachs and the Chicago Fed . By contrast, the Chicago Fed index's current reading is -0.28, implying relatively loose conditions. Capital Economics noted that the FCI-G "does a better job of illustrating the tightness of US financial conditions than various other measures."

Persons: they've, Krishna Guha, Jerome, Powell, Guha, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal, Evercore ISI, Fed, Chicago Fed, Treasury, Dow Jones, U.S, FCI

☆ Bank of England poised to raise rates after inflation shock
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Economists polled by Reuters last week were unanimous that the BoE would raise rates to 4.75%, their highest since 2008, from 4.5%. But after inflation held at 8.7% in May, financial markets priced in a nearly 50% chance that the BoE would opt for a bigger move and raise rates by half a percentage point. "The UK has a uniquely bad inflation problem," Krishna Guha, a vice chairman at U.S. investment banking advisory firm Evercore, said. Core inflation - which strips out more volatile prices to show an underlying trend - rose to a 31-year high in May. "Unfortunately, the Bank of England is in a situation where they will have to hike until something breaks," he said.

Persons: BoE, Tomasz Wieladek, Rowe Price, Krishna Guha, Evercore, Rishi Sunak, Andrew Bailey, Megan Greene, Wieladek, David Milliken, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Sky News, MPC, Nomura, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, United States

☆ Easing inflation pressures give the Fed room to skip a rate hike. But then what?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Softening inflation data for May likely has bought the Federal Reserve at least a month, though not much more, before it has to figure out what to do next. Following the CPI release Tuesday morning, markets priced in a 95% probability that the Fed will skip a hike at its two-day meeting concluding Wednesday, according to CME Group data . "The latest consumer price inflation data doesn't change the Fed outlook for a June rate hike skip, but it illustrates the 'should I stay, or should I go' dilemma that the Fed faces when considering further rate increases," wrote Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. After this week's meeting, Fed officials will release their "dot plot" rate projections for the next few years, plus their collective outlook on inflation, GDP and unemployment. The retreat on inflation, then, presents both an opportunity and a challenge for a Fed that was caught off guard by the big price surge.

Persons: Gregory Daco, Jim Smigiel, Krishna Guha, Guha, Jerome Powell, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Group, SEI, Evercore ISI, Tech, Pantheon Locations: EY

The rate hike "skip" has now become jargon for an emerging compromise between concerns inflation is not yet controlled with fears the economy may slow sharply as banks pull back on credit. "I don't really see a compelling reason to pause," Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester said in an interview published Wednesday in the Financial Times. Jefferson acknowledged inflation remains "too high" and that "by some measures progress has been decelerating recently." While Jefferson does not expect a recession, he noted that there are reasons to be careful after 15 months in which the policy rate was raised by 5 percentage points. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao, Nick Zieminski and Daniel WallisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Jefferson, Jerome, Powell, Krishna Guha, Patrick Harker, Harker, Loretta Mester, Michelle Bowman, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao, Nick Zieminski, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S . Senate, Philadelphia Fed, Cleveland Fed, Financial Times, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington

☆ Most Fed officials think it's appropriate to take a pause, says Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMost Fed officials think it's appropriate to take a pause, says Evercore ISI's Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest on the Fed's interest rate decision, whether he believes a hike or pause is in store, and more.

☆ Priyanka Chopra Jonas's brother played a key role in kickstarting her career
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Alli Rosenbloom | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

CNN —Priyanka Chopra Jonas’s journey in the limelight began in 2000 when she was crowned Miss World – thanks in part to a nudge from her younger brother, Siddharth Chopra. “We just had one guest room,” Chopra Jonas told Wallace, adding that their father said at the time, “‘She’s a young woman. “Technically, he got his room back.”The Miss World 2000 pageant put Chopra Jonas on an international stage that led her screen career we know today. Ultimately, she told Wallace, she wanted to “spread my wings” and began looking toward a move to America. (From left) Madhu Chopra, Priyanka Chopra Jonas and Siddharth Chopra in 2019 in Mumbai.

☆ The Fed could enact a 'substitute' interest rate hike at its June meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve officials could talk tough enough at their June meeting that it would amount to a de facto interest rate hike. "All Fed officials are being careful not to exclude a June hike with more data to come and we would not completely exclude this either," he added. A "substitute" hike could see the rhetoric out of the June meeting reasserting the Fed's stern commitment to fighting inflation and disinclination toward easing anytime soon. But some taming in the inflation data , stronger economic signals and repeated statements from central bankers that cuts are not in their forecast have caused a shift. Fed fund futures contracts are implying a 4.585% funds rate by the end of the year, from the current 5.08%.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Evercore ISI's Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss expectations for a 25 bps Fed hike, the Fed's credibility concerns, and the probability of a recession this year.

☆ I am expecting a 25 bps rate hike, says Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI am expecting a 25 bps rate hike, says Evercore ISI's Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss expectations for a 25 bps Fed hike, the Fed's credibility concerns, and the probability of a recession this year.

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