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☆ The Bank of Japan just shocked markets with a policy tweak — here's why it matters
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe Bank of Japan announced Friday "greater flexibility" in its monetary policy — surprising global financial markets. The central bank loosened its yield curve control — or YCC — in an unexpected move with wide-ranging ramifications. When asked if the central bank had shifted from dovish to neutral, he said: "That's not the case. MUFG said that Friday's "flexibility" tweak shows the central bank is not yet ready to end this policy measure.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Shigeto Nagai, CNBC's, —, Duncan Wrigley, MUFG, Governor Ueda, Michael Metcalfe, Metcalfe Organizations: Bank of Japan, Bloomberg, Getty, of Japan, Nasdaq, Oxford Economics, disinflation, Capital Economics, U.S, U.S . Federal, Bank, Pantheon, Street Global Locations: Europe, Japan, U.S ., China, dovish

☆ Bank of Japan may keep ultra-low rates, debate tweak to yield cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Nikkei newspaper reported the central bank will maintain its 0.5% cap for the 10-year government bond yield, but discuss allowing long-term interest rates to rise above that level by a certain degree. Under yield curve control (YCC), the BOJ guides the 10-year bond yield around 0% and sets an allowance band of 0.5% above and below that target. At the two-day meeting ending on Friday, the BOJ is widely expected to maintain the 10-year yield target and a -0.1% target set for short-term interest rates. The BOJ's meeting comes after the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday to raise interest rates, a move that further widens the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan. That changed last year, when soaring commodity prices pushed inflation above the 2% target and gave investors reason to attack the yield cap.

Persons: Ueda, Kazuo Ueda, Shinichi Uchida's, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes, Conor Humphries Organizations: Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Federal, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, United States, Japan

The yuan firmed by more than 0.5% in both the onshore and offshore markets as investors cheered comments at the closely watched Politburo meeting, though many were still seeking specific details on greater stimulus measures. The yuan traded offshore was last at 7.1444 per dollar and in the onshore market it was at 7.1454 per dollar. Also propping up the yuan were China's major state-owned banks selling U.S. dollars to buy yuan in both onshore and offshore spot markets on Tuesday, sources told Reuters. The positive sentiment from China lifted the Australian dollar, often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, which rose 0.4% to $0.6767. In Europe, the pound rose 0.22% to $1.2854, its first day of gains after seven straight sessions of losses, its longest such streak since March 2020.

Persons: Tommy Xie, Guillermo Felices, Ueda, Aninda Mitra, Rae Wee, Alun John, Shri Navaratnam, Lincoln, Christina Fincher Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, LONDON, China, Europe, Asia, Singapore, London

☆ Asia shares hesitant, yen slide stokes intervention risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Markets imply a 90% probability of a rate hike to 3.75% in July and a peak around 4.0%. The euro responded by climbing to $1.0957, while surging on the low-yielding yen to a 15-year peak of 157.97. The dollar rose to a near eight-month peak of 144.18 yen, before easing back to 143.87 as Japanese officials again protested the weakness in the yen. Yet, a rally in the yen looks unlikely while the Bank of Japan maintains its super-easy monetary policy. “So we now see a higher risk Japanese authorities will step into the market to prop up the JPY.”In commodities, gold steadied at $1,915 an ounce, after finding support at the recent three-month low of $1,909.99.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, ”, Goldman Sachs, “, Masato Kanda, Ueda’s, Carol Kong, Brent firmed Organizations: SYDNEY, National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, ANZ, Japan’s Nikkei, Nasdaq, Wall, Washington, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, CBA Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Portugal, U.S, Asia, Pacific, China, Europe

☆ Asia shares subdued, yen shunned as euro shines
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

“The data indicated a firmer pace of residential, inventory, and equipment investment in the second quarter,” wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs. Markets imply a 90% probability of an ECB rate hike to 3.75% in July and a peak around 4.0%. That underpinned the euro at $1.0950, while keeping it near a 15-year peak of 157.97 yen. The dollar had hit a near eight-month top of 144.18 yen, before easing back to 143.96 as Japanese officials again protested against the yen’s weakness. Yet, a rally in the yen looks unlikely while the Bank of Japan maintains its super-easy monetary policy.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, ”, Advantest, Goldman Sachs, “, Masato Kanda, Ueda’s, Carol Kong, Brent firmed Organizations: SYDNEY, National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, ANZ, Wall, Journal, Nvidia, Nikkei, Chip, Tokyo, Federal Reserve, CBA Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Portugal, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Beijing, Washington, China, Europe

The BOJ's decision contrasts sharply with that of the European Central Bank, which raised borrowing costs to a 22-year high on Thursday and signalled the likelihood of further hikes. Also this week, the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday signalled it was not yet done with its fight against inflation. As widely expected, the BOJ maintained its -0.1% short-term interest rate target and a 0% cap on the 10-year bond yield set under its yield curve control (YCC) policy. An upgrade to the BOJ's inflation forecast in a quarterly review in July is seen as a done-deal, though central bank officials have said a rise in inflation alone won't automatically trigger a policy shift. Ueda has said solid, sustained wage growth must accompany rising inflation for the BOJ to contemplate a policy tweak.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda's, Shigeto Nagai, Izuru Kato, Shunichi Suzuki, Ueda, Leika Kihara, Kantaro Komiya, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Totan, Graphics, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan

The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food, but includes energy costs, rose 3.1% in March from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, matching a median market forecast. The year-on-year rise in the so-called "core core" index was the fastest since December 1981, when Japan was experiencing an asset-inflated bubble economy. Persistent rises in global commodity prices have prodded many Japanese companies, long reluctant to hike prices, to finally pass on their higher costs to consumers, pushing up consumer inflation to well above the BOJ's 2% target. Markets are focusing on the BOJ's quarterly outlook report due after the meeting, which will include inflation forecasts extending through fiscal 2025. Reporting by Leika Kihara and Takahiko Wada; Editing by Clarence FernandezOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Have payrolls resurrected the 'soft landing'?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] An employee hiring sign with a QR code is seen in a window of a business in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., April 7, 2023. Earnings for Citi, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase & Co later in the week will be in focus for colour on financial conditions. Inflation figures due Wednesday can also help markets to gauge how aggressive the Federal Reserve may need to be. Friday's jobs data lifted yields, but didn't substantially shift a bigger picture view that hikes are all but finished and cuts are coming. China is running military exercises in the wake of Taiwan's president visiting the United States, while the U.S. scrambles to find the source of a damaging document leak.

☆ Dollar jumps to six-week high on higher rate expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar surged on Friday to hit a six-week high against a basket of currencies as a bout of resilient economic data out of the United States raised market expectations that more interest rate hikes were in the offing. The latest data releases gave the U.S. dollar a leg up, knocking sterling to a fresh six-week low of $1.1952 on Friday. Similarly, the kiwi tumbled to a six-week trough of $0.6228, while the euro bottomed at $1.0652, its lowest since Jan. 9. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index rose to a fresh six-week top of 104.31 and was on track for a third straight week of gains. U.S. Treasury yields have also surged on the back of further hawkish rate repricing, with the two-year yields last at 4.6762%.

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