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Fed officials in recent speeches have said they’re pleased with the latest inflation data, acknowledging the steady progress but saying they’re not quite fully comfortable yet with slashing rates. “We set this rate when inflation was over 4%, and inflation is now, let’s call it, 2.5%. He has said that an unexpected weakening in the labor market would prompt the Fed to consider cutting rates sooner than expected. Economic growth in 2024 has been solid so far, despite the highest interest rates in nearly a quarter century. But the Fed’s decision to cut rates will be mainly based on inflation readings, absent any concerning news about the job market.
Persons: they’re, Christopher Waller, Austan Goolsbee, , Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, Jerome Powell’s, ” Kathleen Grace, Waller, ” Powell, Powell Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Fed, Chicago Fed, Wall Street, Cleveland Fed, CNN, Labor
At the end of July, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next decision on interest rates. Some economists have recently been pointing to similar concerns with the Fed keeping interest rates high. As Sahm pointed out, it would take time for reduced interest rates to "flow through to the economy." "You want to begin a process of taking the pressure off of the economy," Sahm said. AdvertisementZandi said interest rates on credit cards and Buy Now, Pay Later rates could come down, along with a decline in auto lending rates and mortgage rates.
Persons: , Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Powell, Claudia Sahm, it's, Sahm, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Brian Rose, Rose, Zandi, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Service, Moody's, Business, Federal, CME FedWatch, Fed, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Sahm Consulting, Federal Reserve, Democratic, UBS, Chicago Federal, Wall Street Journal
Gold eases, but set for weekly gain on Fed rate cut bets
  + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices edged lower on Friday, but were headed for a third straight week of gains as cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data boosted hopes of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. Gold prices edged lower on Friday, but were headed for a third straight week of gains as cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data boosted hopes of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. "Inflation outlook and interest rate picture have moved in favor of gold this week. As we move closer to a lower interest rate environment, conditions could be ripe for gold to set new record highs before the year is out," said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Persons: Tim Waterer, KCM, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, Waterer Organizations: Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed Bank, Chicago Fed Bank Locations: U.S
Washington CNN —A vast swath of the US economy is showing signs of weakness as unemployment rises to its highest point in more than two years. “When you think of services, a lot of it is driven by the consumer, and consumers are key to where the US economy goes,” James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, told CNN. Consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of the US economy, has already moderated over the past few months, government statistics show, and retailers themselves have said they’ve noticed shoppers across the income spectrum change their purchasing behavior. The bottom 60% of households by income accounted for a larger proportion of spending on health care services. These firms have added 168,000 jobs a month, on average, from April through June, according to fresh Labor Department data released Friday.
Persons: , ” James Knightley, “ We’re, Knightley, Scott Hamilton, Gallagher, It’s, Tesla, China’s Geely, Laura He, Elon, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN, Institute, Supply, ING, CNN, Commerce, Service, Labor Department, EV, Volvo, SAIC, Elon Musk’s, Business, Committee, Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Financial Services, Chicago Fed, Pepsico, Delta Air Lines, ConAgra Brands, US Labor Department, Atlanta Fed, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, The, New York Mellon, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, United States, California, Jiangsu, China, Shanghai, Wells Fargo
CNN —The number of available jobs in the US unexpectedly grew in May, signaling continued resilience in the nation’s labor market. Job openings jumped higher to 8.14 million in May, from a downwardly revised 7.91 million in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released Tuesday. While both hires and job openings rates (as a percentage of total employment) ticked higher for May, the quits rate and layoffs rate were unchanged. The labor market appears to be at a crossroads, Nick Bunker, Indeed Hiring Lab’s head of economic research, wrote in commentary posted Tuesday. But some Fed officials have noted that the job market has lost momentum recently and that it’s highly unclear whether it will continue to hold steady or weaken further.
Persons: Economists, , ” Robert Frick, switchers, David Tinsley, Nick Bunker, ” Bunker, , you’ve, Austan Goolsbee, ” Marisa DiNatale Organizations: CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Labor, Navy Federal Credit Union, Industries, Bank of America, Bank of America Institute, , Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg, European Central Bank, Moody’s, Labor Statistics Locations: Sintra , Portugal
Add to that the noise surrounding the US election, and it could be a rougher second half. Central Banks in Canada and the eurozone have both cut interest rates, but inflation rose in both of those regions last month. Australia, meanwhile, saw its inflation rate rise to 4% this week, stoking fears that the Reserve Bank of Australia could soon move to raise rates again. It was already well known that no documentation was found to show who worked on the door plug. Without the bolts, the door plug incident was pretty much inevitable.
Persons: London CNN —, they’ve, Michelle Bowman, she’s, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, stoking, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, , José Torres, Torres, wouldn’t, Joseph Stiglitz, Trump, Trump’s, Max, , Al Michaels, Michaels, Peacock, ” Michaels, , CNN Michaels, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, London CNN, Federal Reserve, foibles, San Francisco Fed, Chicago Fed, Central Banks, Reserve Bank of Australia, Interactive Brokers, Treasury, Trump, Peterson Institute, Oxford Economics, Allianz, CNN, Boeing, Alaska, Alaska Airlines, National Transportation Safety Board, Alaska Air, NBC, Summer Games, Olympics Locations: London, Canada, Australia, Renton , Washington, Paris,
Michelle Bowman, governor of the US Federal Reserve, speaks during the Exchequer Club meeting in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2024. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday the time is not right yet to start lowering interest rates, adding she would be open to raising if inflation doesn't pull back. "However, we are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate." The Commerce Department on Friday will release its reading on the May personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect a 12-month inflation rate of 2.6% on both the all-items and core, which excludes food and energy prices.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Dow Jones, Mary Daly, Daly, CNBC's Deirdre Bosa, it's, Austan Goolsbee, CNBC's Steve Liesman Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, Commerce Department, European Central Bank, San Francisco Fed, Chicago Fed Locations: Washington , DC, London, U.S, San Francisco
London CNN —At the beginning of the year, Federal Reserve officials projected they would cut interest rates three times this year. The labor-force participation rate has leveled off after a post-Covid boom, and the US immigration policy rate may soon become more restrictive, limiting potential new labor market participants. “Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2% over the longer run.”Investors weren’t happy to hear it. That’s why not taking preemptive action when it’s not necessary is so important.”Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has also been particularly hawkish in his views. He also said rate hikes are “certainly not off the table.”Like Bowman and Kashkari, New York Fed President John Williams said rate hikes aren’t part of his baseline outlook.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, she’s, ” Bowman, Bowman, , Dow, Mary Daly, Daly, ” Daly, “ We’re, it’s, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, John Williams, he’s Organizations: London CNN —, Federal Reserve, Exchange, London ., Federal, Market, Nvidia, San Francisco Fed, Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis, Kashkari , New York Fed, Commerce Department Locations: London, San Francisco, Kashkari , New
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: Slowing inflation data would open the door to easier policyCNBC’s Steve Liesman and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, interest rate outlook, and more.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Steve Liesman Organizations: Chicago, Chicago Fed
Washington CNN —America’s top central banker recently said the job market now looks the way it did before the Covid-19 pandemic drastically upended society. Before the Bell spoke with Julia Pollak, chief economist at jobs site ZipRecruiter, about her views of the job market. Before the Bell: Do you agree with Chair Powell’s view that today’s job market is back to a pre-pandemic normal? Why is the job market slower now? The number of job openings is higher than it was by around 15% or so, but online job postings are actually lower by ZipRecruiter’s count.
Persons: Washington CNN —, , Jerome Powell, Powell, it’s, Bell, Julia Pollak, they’re, They’re, Olesya Dmitracova, Emmanuel Macron, Read, Patrick Harker, Lisa Cook, Tom Barkin, Susan Collins, Adriana Kugler, Lorie Logan, Alberto Musalem, Goolsbee Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN, Fed, Labor, EU, National, New York Fed, Manufacturing Index, Reserve Bank of Australia, US Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, Accenture, Kroger, Darden, Bank of England, US Labor Department, Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed, Global, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, France, Wells Fargo
US stocks traded mostly lower on Friday but ended up for the week after a cool May CPI report. The Nasdaq 100 closed at record highs driven by AI excitement and solid earnings from Broadcom and Adobe. AdvertisementUS stocks traded mostly lower on Friday but gained for the week after a cool May inflation report and Apple's unveiling of its AI ambitions at WWDC. The Nasdaq 100 finished the week higher by more than 3%, while the S&P 500 was up about 1.5%. The Dow Jones, which has little exposure to the AI tech trade, finished the week down about 0.5%.
Persons: , Dow Jones, Loretta Mester, we'll, Mester, Austan Goolsbee, We've, Goolsbee Organizations: Nasdaq, Broadcom, Adobe, Service, Federal, PPI, CNBC
US stocks dipped on Friday after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached record highs four days in a row. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates at its September FOMC meeting. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Friday's decline in stocks was preceded by a sharp decline in European stocks, as recent election results continue to make waves in France and Germany. The market currently expects the Fed to begin cutting interest rates at its September FOMC meeting.
Persons: Loretta Mester, , DAX, Austan, Mester Organizations: Nasdaq, CNBC, Investors, Federal Reserve, Service, University of Michigan, Fed, Here's Locations: France, Germany
PHOENIX, AZ- The Phoenix skyline is seen from the ferris wheel at the Arizona State Fair on Oct. 8, 2022, in Phoenix, Arizona. Joshua Lott/The Washington Post | Getty ImagesPhoenix is closer to winning the war on inflation than most other cities. "Housing inflation remains my most valuable indicator for the immediate future," Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said last month. And in Phoenix so far, both rents and home sales have cooled down over the last year. 'Past the worst' of a housing crunchRent's impact on inflation
Persons: Joshua Lott, Joe Biden's, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: PHOENIX, Arizona State Fair, Washington Post, Getty, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reserve Bank of Chicago Locations: AZ, Arizona, Phoenix , Arizona, Phoenix, , Maricopa County
New York CNN —When new gross domestic product figures last month showed US economic growth slowed from recent gangbuster levels, many people diagnosed the economy as having a really ugly sickness: stagflation. So March’s ugly inflation report, which showed an unexpected jump in the pace of price increases, and the lackluster GDP report, made the diagnosis seem like a no-brainer. Even JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said last month the US economy “looks more like the 1970s than we’ve seen before” and that stagflation is a growing risk. Economic slack, a term I unfortunately cannot take any credit for, broadly describes a situation where the economy isn’t performing as well as it could be. The most widely recognized symptom of economic slack is a rising unemployment rate.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, we’ve, Jerome Powell, , Powell, you’ve, it’s, Austan Goolsbee, Diane Swonk, wasn’t, stagflation, millennials Organizations: New, New York CNN, JPMorgan Chase, Fed, Chicago Fed, KPMG Locations: New York, stagflation
Gold prices inched up on Thursday following a sharp rise in the last session as the dollar and bond yields weakened on the increasing likelihood of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as September. Spot gold rose 0.1% at $2,388.10 per ounce, as of 0255 GMT, after gaining more than 1% to its highest since April 19 on Wednesday. "Following the April consumer price index data, the odds for a potential September rate cut have firmed, which suits the gold price from a yield perspective," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. However, a potential bounce in the dollar or treasury yields could be the biggest hurdle for gold price in the remainder of the week." Bullion is known as an inflation hedge, but higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Persons: Tim Waterer, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell's Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasury, KCM, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank Locations: .
Federal Reserve regional presidents Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Austan Goolsbee of Chicago said they are taking a patient approach to monetary policy as they weigh surprisingly strong inflation data this year. Let's get a lot more data to see if this inflation is going to continue or if it's stalling," Kashkari said during a joint live interview on CNBC. "We are all committed to getting inflation back" to the Fed's 2% goal. Goolsbee noted the rapid disinflation that occurred in 2023 and said he is hopeful that can resume following the sticky upward trend seen so far this year. Or did we kind of use up all of our good luck and this bump of the beginning of the year is actually a sign of overheating?"
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Goolsbee, Jeff Cox Organizations: Reserve, CNBC Locations: Minneapolis, Chicago
The 2-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, was marginally higher at 4.819%. U.S. Treasury yields were broadly flat early Friday as traders digested the jump in weekly jobless claims and what this could mean for interest rates. Relief at the auction outcome means traders are now firmly focused — once again — on the interest rate trajectory of the Federal Reserve. Weekly initial jobless claims, released Thursday, hit their highest level since August 2023, coming in at 231,000. It comes after the Bank of England on Thursday held interest rates as expected, but raised expectations of a cut in June.
Persons: , Henry Allen, Treasurys, Dallas, Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari, Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Bank of England Locations: U.S, Minneapolis
US stocks jumped on Friday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average vied for an 8-day win streak. The upcoming April CPI report next week is the big data point that could move markets. AdvertisementUS stocks edged higher on Friday, setting the Dow Jones Industrial Average up for a potential eight-day win streak. Next week, investors will be laser-focused on the Wednesday release of April's inflation report, with economists expecting a 0.3% rise in the consumer price index. Fundstrat's Tom Lee said a light CPI report next week could set the stock market up for more gains in May.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, Michael Barr, Tom Lee, Lee Organizations: Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Service, Federal Locations: Fundstrat, Here's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed on rate cut timeline, restrictive monetary policy and inflation targetMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Fed's next move for rate cuts.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Chicago Fed
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 8, 2024. U.S. stock futures were little changed on Thursday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its longest win streak going back to December. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.09%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.1%. The S&P 500 gained 0.51%, closing above 5,200 for the first time since early April. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were higher by 1.7% and 1.2%, respectively.
Persons: Dow, Chris Hyzy, Stocks, Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari, Michelle Bowman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, Fed Locations: New York City, U.S, Dallas, Minneapolis, Chicago
Markets started were revived last week as the April jobs report renewed hopes of rate cuts. Investors will tune in to Fed speakers this week for further clues about Fed policy. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Morning gains stretched the stock rally into its fourth day, a move up first sparked by Friday's jobs report. A lineup of Fed speakers this week could potentially deepen this notion or, otherwise signal that markets are turning too optimistic.
Persons: Stocks, , David Morrison, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Trade Nation, Fed, Minneapolis, Chicago
The recent equity rebound stalled as investor rate cut bets were made uncertain by Fed commentary. Fed President Neel Kashkari said rates might not be restrictive enough to clamp down on inflation. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks were mostly higher Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average continuing to pull slightly higher. His remarks followed similar hawkishness from Fed President Tom Barkin on Monday, who indicated that the economy will need to slow down more before policy can pivot.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, , Tom Barkin, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Disney, Service, Dow Jones, Dow, Minneapolis Federal, Chicago Locations: Minneapolis, Here's
But now that extra spending money is gone, economists are concerned about what comes next. That means many Americans have more debt than savings and suggests “that American households fully spent their pandemic-era savings as of March 2024,” they wrote in a recent report. Consumer spending plays a crucial role in driving economic growth in the United States, and it has shown remarkable strength over the past two years. “A continuing strong labor market could help consumers maintain spending patterns similar to those observed recently, even without pandemic-era savings,” they wrote. What comes next: Disney, Airbnb, Uber, Anheuser-Busch, Tapestry and Dillards all report later this week — investors will look for any comments about how consumer spending, or lack thereof, is altering revenue forecasts for 2024.
Persons: Hamza Abdelrahman, Luiz Edgard Oliveira, , Austan Goolsbee, ’ ”, Fitch, Sarah Wyeth, Chris Kempczinski, Abdelrahman, Airbnb, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Greg Abel, Buffett, , Abel, isn’t, Boeing “, Scott Stocker, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, San Francisco Federal Reserve, Chicago Federal, Society for, , Shoppers, Tyson Foods, , Disney, Anheuser, Busch, Berkshire, International Monetary Fund, Industries, Nvidia, Microsoft, FAA, Boeing, Federal Aviation Administration, CNN Locations: New York, United States, Omaha , Nebraska, Omaha, scamming
Gold rises on Fed rate cut hopes, Middle East tensions
  + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices ticked higher on Monday, as expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates later in the year and tensions in the Middle East lifted bullion's appeal. "Investors will look at the political situation in the Middle East and how the ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire play out. "Weaker U.S. data offers more policy flexibility for the Fed in terms of rate cuts," paving way for gold prices to stabilize, said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. Markets are pricing in a 67% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September, as per CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the Perth Mint's gold product sales in April jumped two-fold from a month earlier, while silver sales fell to their lowest since December.
Persons: Kelvin Wong, Benjamin Netanyahu, Yeap Jun Rong, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Co, Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific, New York Fed Bank, Chicago Fed, Perth Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, OANDA, Gaza, U.S
Invigorating growth is critical: When the economy expands, it improves standards of living, promotes innovation and makes households wealthier. Economic growth in Spain and France was stronger than expected last year. But the US is outperforming mainly for one key reason: Robust productivity growth. Productivity growth came in well below expectations in the first three months of the year, according to Labor Department data released last week. A “course correction” isn’t an even stronger US economy: Economic policymakers around the world need to address a range of key issues.
Persons: ” Kristalina Georgieva, ” Georgieva, ” Stephen Gallagher, Gallagher, , , Hande Atay Alam, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel Katz, John Williams, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, Krispy Kreme, John’s, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Washington CNN, Monetary, IMF, European Central Bank, Labor Department, Societe Generale, CNN, Reuters, Palantir Technologies, Tyson Foods, Marriott Worldwide, New York Fed, Disney, UBS, Duke Energy, Suncor, Bros, Minneapolis, Toyota, Uber, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Airbnb, Fox Corporation, News Corporation, Duolingo, Icahn Enterprises, New York Times Company, AMC Entertainment, Honda, Warner Bros Discovery, Warner Music Group, Hyatt, Hilton, Bank of England, US Labor Department, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, University of Michigan, . Chicago Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Europe, China, United States, Spain, France, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Israel, Gaza, Olesya, “ Turkey, Lyft, TripAdvisor
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