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☆ The next revolution in monetary policy is underway
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

LONDON, June 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Monetary policy, Milton Friedman said, acts on the economy with long and variable lags. Monetary policy regimes evolve in response to the changing nature of prevailing economic challenges – though this also takes time. The next revolution in monetary policy may be brewing. One question Gopinath did not address is how the financial system came to dominate monetary policy. When contractions hit, however, central banks eased monetary policy and governments loosened their purse strings, just as before.

Persons: Milton Friedman, Gita Gopinath, Gopinath, ’, “, Peter Thal Larsen, Pranav Kiran, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Bank for International, IMF, Central, SVB, Signature Bank, Credit Suisse, Fed Funds, BIS, Thomson Locations: Portuguese, Sintra, Korean, United States, Europe, Central, England, London, U.S, China, Ukraine, “

SHANGHAI, June 29 (Reuters) - Geopolitics and the national security concerns of some countries are threatening the globalisation of the world’s chip industry and its future growth, the chairman and acting CEO of memory chipmaker Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) said on Thursday. "Our industry itself is cyclical, and each practitioner has his own way of dealing with the cycle. The move barred YMTC's suppliers from shipping U.S. goods to it without a difficult-to-obtain licence. Chen hinted at YMTC's own troubles during his speech, with a direct appeal to equipment suppliers in attendance. "For YMTC that I manage, we can no longer procure parts and components for equipment we had legally bought.

Persons: Chen Nanxiang, Taiwan's TSMC, Morris Chang, Chen, Casey Hall, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Christina Fincher Organizations: Technologies, Huawei Technologies Co, Shanghai Newsroom, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, China, Shanghai, United States, Washington

☆ China's growth to be higher in Q2, projected to hit annual 5% target - Premier Li
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TIANJIN, China, June 27 (Reuters) - China's economic growth in the second quarter will be higher than the first and was projected to reach the annual economic growth target of around 5%, China's Premier Li Qiang told delegates at the World Economic Forum in Tianjin on Tuesday. However, analysts are now downgrading their economic growth forecasts for China for the rest of the year. The pandemic is unlikely to be the last public health crisis the world faces, Li said, adding that it will be over and visible and invisible barriers will disappear. The trend of globalisation remains intact despite some setbacks, said the Chinese premier, reiterating a key theme of his since taking up his post that China remains open for business and welcomes foreign investors. Reporting by Kevin Yao; Writing by Joe Cash; Editing by Michael PerryOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Li Qiang, Li, Kevin Yao, Joe Cash, Michael Perry Organizations: China's, Economic, Thomson Locations: TIANJIN, China, Tianjin, Beijing

☆ Globalisation remains intact despite some setbacks - China Premier Li
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

TIANJIN, June 27 (Reuters) - China's Premier Li Qiang told delegates that globalisation remains intact despite some setbacks at a World Economic Forum summit in Tianjin on Tuesday. The pandemic is unlikely to be the last public health crisis for the world, Li added. Reporting by Kevin Yao; Writing by Joe Cash; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Li Qiang, Li, Kevin Yao, Joe Cash, Kim Coghill Organizations: Thomson Locations: TIANJIN, Tianjin

☆ 3 major companies trying to move supply chains out of China, and how they're faring in their attempts to move away from the factory of the world
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Ted Cannis, a senior executive at Ford, told the Financial Times in December that there is a "large-scale rethinking of logistics operations" across the auto supply chain. "The supply chain is going to be the focus of this decade," Cannis said. Among the companies Apple is relying on to make the Vision Pro is Taiwan's Foxconn — which is the main supplier shifting its supply chain away from China. The move was made after China's COVID-19 lockdowns rocked supply chain and production timelines, but prices are the real driving reason behind the move. "Right now, robustness of our supply chain also needs to be considered to ensure the stable procurement of parts."

Persons: —, Donald Trump, lockdowns, COVID, Ashutosh Sharma, Forrester, Ted Cannis, Cannis, China's, Wellsenn, Cowell, Liu Young, TSMC, Morris Chang, Chips, Dylan Patel, SemiAnalysis, Tim Cook, Fang DongxuFeature, Mazda, China's COVID, Masahiro Moro, ", Moro Organizations: Mazda, Service, Privacy, East, Ford, Financial Times, Apple, Vision, Apple's, Cowell e Holdings, Future Publishing, Reuters Locations: China, India, Zhengzhou, Henan, Vietnam, Mexico, Taiwan, Arizona, Nanjing, Fang DongxuFeature China, Japan Japanese, Japan

Asked if he thought the world was in a new Cold War, Kostin said that it was now a "hot war" that was more dangerous than the Cold War. VTB, Kostin said, was discussing using yuan in settlements with third countries. "We have already entered into a hot war," Kostin said of the crisis with Ukraine. The situation is worse than in the Cold War, it is very difficult and alarming." Asked if Russia's economy would remain a free economy, Kostin said: "I very much hope so."

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Andrei Kostin, Kostin, Vladimir Putin, Putin, VTB, Guy Faulconbridge, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., European Union, Reuters, U.S, JPMorgan, VEB, EU, West ., Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Russian, China, MOSCOW, Russia, Ukraine, United States, Moscow, Australia, Britain, Soviet Union

☆ Securonomics is fuzzy new lodestar for investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

During the era of free trade and financial liberalisation, the politicians danced to the economists’ tune. President Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor explained that the era of unqualified support for free markets is over. The state will explicitly subsidise “specific sectors that are foundational to economic growth (or) strategic from a national security perspective,” Sullivan explained. Internationally, meanwhile, free trade is no longer the pole star. Sullivan’s 5,000-word speech devoted just three sentences to the World Trade Organization.

Persons: Rachel Reeves, Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden’s, ” Sullivan, Jacob Soll, Jean, Baptiste Colbert, Alexander Hamilton, Adam Smith, securonomics, Colbert, Hamilton, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, ”, Soll, Peter Thal Larsen, Pranav Kiran Organizations: Reuters, Labour, Bank of England, White, U.S . Treasury, U.S . Trade Representative, Joe Biden’s National, Biden, offshoring, World Trade Organization, Industries, BAE Systems, Dow, Aerospace, Defense, U.S, Treasury, University of Southern, European Central Bank, Soviet, Russia, Thomson Locations: Washington, Tellingly, States, French, Scottish, University of Southern California, China, United States, Europe, Saudi Arabia

☆ Rich world has three ways to win over global South
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Another reason to care about developing countries is that their actions will help determine whether the planet fries. Even rich democracies in temperate regions will feel the consequences, mainly in the form of mass migration unlike anything they have yet experienced. THREE P’SThe rich democracies’ goal should not be to pull the global South into their camp in advance of a possible clash with China. When it comes to promoting prosperity, rich democracies are similarly vulnerable to accusations of double standards. As one developing world observer told former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers: “When we’re engaged with the Chinese, we get an airport.

Analysts say what may appear as mixed messaging is the result of President Xi Jinping's renewed focus on national security, steeled by rock-bottom relations with rival superpower, the United States. A later speech in March at the National People's Congress was more pointed: China's security is being challenged by U.S. attempts to contain its rise, he said. In his October speech, he added "external security" and "international security", in what analysts say signals a new focus to counter foreign threats, namely Washington. Asked for its response to a list of questions for this story, China's foreign ministry said it was "not aware of the situation". BUSINESS JITTERSChina's security focus also risks isolating the country economically.

☆ Here are the 4 issues that will determine the future of the global economy, according to Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mohamed El-Erian says there are four issues that will shape the future of the global economy. El-Erian say the Fed's efforts to reduce inflation and the US debt ceiling are key factors looking ahead. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyIt is an uncertain time for the global economy. As narratives continue to shift, Wall Street's views range from predictions of a full on stock market crash to a soft landing of the economy.

LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - As "fragmentation" of politics and economics becomes the new buzzword for a world that appears to be splintering into blocs, the related costs of the new order are only now being totted up. Corporate rethinking of foreign direct investment (FDI) - bricks-and-mortar developments overseas as well as mergers and acquisitions - would make the hit even scarier. And if FDI fragmentation is defined by a permanent rise in cross-bloc barriers to imported investment inputs, the IMF said developments could cut world output by 2% in the long term. "Fragmentation of the global economy will likely put inflation at a higher structural level, and the cost of capital will likely go up, squeezing low-quality and leveraged companies." Reuters GraphicsBIS chart on global trade as share of GDPBCG projections on world trade to 2031The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

Macron last visited China in 2019 while it will be von der Leyen's first trip since becoming European Commission president that year. However, some analysts said ostentatious deal-signing would appear opportunistic at a time of heightened frictions between the United States and China. "Both (Macron and von der Leyen) have not only business in mind but also Ukraine," said Joerg Wuttke, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China. Macron and von der Leyen are expected to echo the message that Xi should also talk to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. China and EU decoupling will only serve U.S. interests, but make both China and Europe suffer," it said.

☆ TSMC founder says he supports US efforts to slow China's chip advances
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Sarah Wu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/3] Morris Chang, the founder of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), speaks on stage during a Chip War book event in Taipei, Taiwan March 16, 2023. In Taiwan, TSMC, Asia's most valuable listed company and a major Apple Inc (AAPL.O) supplier, is widely regarded as the "sacred mountain protecting the country," because of its economic importance. U.S. "onshoring" and "friendshoring" efforts to boost chip manufacturing stateside or in allied countries present a predicament for Taiwan. TSMC is expanding its global production footprint, even as it keeps its most advanced technology in Taiwan. Meanwhile, the Chinese government is plowing billions into bolstering its chip sector, but Chang said China's chip manufacturing technology lags that of Taiwan by "at least five or six years".

☆ Analysis: Macron wins Pyrrhic victory on pension bill, risks fuelling anger
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Michel Rose | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

By using special constitutional powers instead of risking lawmakers rejecting the reform, Macron has given ammunition to the opposition and to trade union leaders who cast the reform as undemocratic. LE PEN AMBUSHTo be sure, claims of authoritarianism by the pension bill's critics are far-fetched. Political observers say Le Pen played her hand well. "Mrs Le Pen is ready for the ambush," Laurent Berger, the head of the moderate CFDT union said on Thursday, hours before the vote. But the end of debates in parliament may do little to quell anger on the streets.

☆ The life and times of Pope Francis as he marks his 10th anniversary as pontiff
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

[1/3] Pope Francis greets people as he attends the weekly general audience in St. Peter's square at the Vatican, March 8, 2023. REUTERS/Guglielmo MangiapaneVATICAN CITY, March 8 (Reuters) - Following are some of the major events of the life and ministry of Pope Francis, who marks the 10th anniversary of his election as pontiff on March 13. 2017Jan. 2 - Pope Francis says in a letter bishops must show zero tolerance to clergy who sexually abuse children. May 18 - In unprecedented move, all Chile's bishops offer to resign after attending crisis meeting with Pope Francis. In March 2022, he introduces a reform saying Catholic women could in future take charge of most departments.

For many economists, globalization appears to have stalled after three decades of low inflation, easy credit, China's integration into the world economy and a relatively peaceful period. As a share of global GDP, trade likely increased from the previous year's 57% and exports as per World Bank data. It is not really evident in the data," Nicita says, estimating that global trade grew by about 3% last year, at a pace similar to the global economy. "Trade and globalization are not on the wane, but they are changing," she told the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum in November, citing growth in service- and digital-based trade. UNIPOLAR V MULTIPOLARThis 'regionalization' will continue assuming Beijing's economic, trade and financial ties to the U.S. gradually loosen.

☆ Morning Bid: War and PCE
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith world headlines focussed on first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the inflationary consequences that pounded world markets last year still smoulder. Curiously, the initial energy shock from the Ukraine war is already less of a problem than the change in pricing behaviour that it seeded - especially in services still distorted by the pandemic, in corporate margin building and rising wage settlements. But it's the pickup and stickiness in underlying "core" prices, excluding energy and food, that is irking the central banks and the Federal Reserve most of all. Alongside another tight U.S. weekly jobs report, markets got another glimpse of those price pressures on Thursday. And increasingly buoyed by the still intense geopolitical fallout from a year of the war in Ukraine, the dollar pushed higher yet again.

A year from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, fracturing geopolitics seems to be rolling back world trade links and financial interdependence at speed. But global financial conditions - and the strength of the U.S. dollar as a proxy for that - may be playing a bigger part than the more dramatic political narrative lets on. "A stronger dollar tends to go hand in hand with tighter global financial conditions and more subdued supply chain activity." Compensating somewhat for dollar exchange rate strength over the decade were historically low real dollar borrowing rates. There's little doubt that the pandemic and the geopolitics surrounding Ukraine and Taiwan have been major potential disruptions to world trade by themselves.

Manchester United, INEOS, Tesla and Musk did not reply to requests for comment. "For potential buyers, football clubs like Manchester United are considered trophy assets driven by the perception of exclusivity. The size of that bid has fuelled speculation Manchester United will attract significantly more. Manchester United is the fourth richest soccer club in the world, according to analysis by Deloitte. A small portion of Manchester United shares is listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

☆ Analysis: Shock of war hits a world economy at the crossroads
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

But its deeper impact will be felt in how the conflict plays into shifts that were already reshaping the global economy before Russia's tanks rolled in. Economic sanctions on Moscow came as hurdles to world trade were mounting after an era of rapid globalisation. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsNO ENDGAME IN SIGHTSome might conclude that means the world economy has taken the conflict in its stride. That would take the outlook for both the global economy and wider peace into uncharted territory. For the economy, the risk is that energy prices - and hence inflation - will be squeezed higher if shortfalls are not met.

☆ Nearly a year on from the supposed Russian exodus, most major companies have yet to withdraw
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

PATRIK STOLLARZ | AFP | Getty ImagesAfter Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February 2022, companies across the G-7 major economies and the European Union announced plans to cease business operations in Russia. The report published earlier this month documented a total of 2,405 subsidiaries owned by 1,404 EU and G-7 companies that were active in Russia at the time of the first military incursion into Ukraine. Of the EU and G-7 companies remaining in Russia, the research found that 19.5% were German, 12.4% were American owned, and 7% were Japanese multinationals. Various companies told Barclays that there were a host of challenges to fully divest. "There have also been suggestions that the assets (including intellectual property) of companies that leave Russia will be nationalised."

☆ Germany's education advantage over European peers at risk - IW Study
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BERLIN, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Germany is well positioned in education levels when compared with its European peers, but a study conducted by the IW economic institute showed that this privileged position could be at risk. Having a strong education and vocational training system is important to Germany's economy, Europe's largest, which relies on skilled labour to support its high-end products and services. "Germany has been left behind to a certain extent in the strong expansion of education that has taken place throughout the European Union in recent years," according to the study of the IW, to which Reuters had access on Saturday. "This should be seen against the background of the very special position of vocational education and training in Germany," the IW said. If one looks at the segment of young professionals with tertiary and secondary vocational training together, Germany has a significantly higher share of 77.0% of educated professionals than the 73.4% for the European Union.

☆ Davos 2023: Global trade rethink: 'race of the big pockets'?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SummarySummary Companies US climate bill concerns dominate Davos trade talkSome fear "rich-country game" of rising state subsidiesRevamped globalisation must benefit all, Davos toldDAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The United States pitched its vision of "worker-centric" trade. "I am very concerned," World Trade Organization (WTO) chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told Reuters on the sidelines of the meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Three decades of free global trade have, the International Monetary Fund estimates, lifted more than a billion people out of extreme poverty. The United States notably built into its trade pact with Mexico a mechanism for identifying and dealing with the denial of worker rights. U.S. Trade Representative Tai told a panel on Wednesday the United States wanted to "lead a conversation" on a new version of globalisation.

☆ Meat bans, soaring gold prices and ‘un-Brexit’? One bank's ‘outrageous’ predictions for 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-25 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Meat bans, soaring gold prices and Britain voting to 'un–Brexit' could be on the cards for 2023, according to Saxo's Outrageous Predictions. Bloomberg / Contributor / Getty ImagesSaxo Bank's "outrageous predictions" for 2023 include a ban on meat production, skyrocketing gold prices and Britain voting to "un-Brexit." "I think gold is going to fly," he added. Meat production to be banned Meat is responsible for 57% of emissions from food production, according to research published by Nature Food, and with countries across the world having made net-zero commitments, Saxo says it is possible at least one country could cut out meat production entirely. Meat is responsible for 57% of emissions from food production, according to research published by Nature Food.

☆ Japan's consumer inflation hits fresh 40-year high, eyes on BOJ policy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Japan's core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes energy costs, rose 3.7% in November from a year earlier, data showed on Friday, matching market forecasts and perking up from a 3.6% gain in October. Reuters GraphicsAside from utility bills, prices rose for a broad range of goods from fried chicken, smartphones to air conditioners, in a sign of mounting inflationary pressure, the data showed. But an index stripping away such one-off factors may remain elevated and keep pressure on the BOJ to remain vigilant to the chance of a demand-driven rise in inflation. "We'll likely see a rush in price hikes next year that could be more intense than this year," as companies face rising labour and distribution costs, Teikoku Data Bank said. The CPI data will likely be among key factors the BOJ will scrutinise when it produces fresh quarterly inflation forecasts at a two-day policy meeting ending on Jan. 18.

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