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☆ Sliding yen stokes intervention threat, dollar reigns
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

An employee counts Japanese 10,000 yen banknotes at the Birdy Exchange in Hong Kong, China. Several factors were supporting the recovery in the Japanese yen on Tuesday. Yellen said last week whether Washington would show understanding over another yen-buying intervention by Japan "depends on the details" of the situation. Elsewhere, the euro gained 0.04% to $1.0649, after having fallen to a six-month low of $1.0615 on Friday against a stronger dollar. The dollar index , which on Friday touched an over six-month high, firmed at 105.57 in early Asia trade.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Governor Ueda, Carol Kong, Janet, Yellen, Sterling steadied, Thierry Wizman Organizations: Birdy, Bank of Japan, Reserve, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S, Treasury, Bank, Fed, New Zealand Locations: Hong Kong, China, Washington, Japan, U.S, Asia

Oil prices continued to push higher, with the international benchmark Brent crude price moving past $95 to its highest since November 2022. Reuters GraphicsInvestors and central bankers are contending with a sharp rise in oil prices as demand has picked up but Saudi Arabia and Russia have limited supply. Samuel Zief, head of global FX strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, said central banks should not be overly concerned by the run-up in oil prices, which he said should fade as economies slow. "What the central banks are really, really focused on, it's not really the supply-side energy shocks anymore, it's really the sticky services part of the inflation basket," he said. "Pick whatever central bank you want, they're talking about either they're done already or they'll do one more hike and they'll go on pause."

Persons: Germany's DAX, Duncan MacInnes, Jerome Powell's, Samuel Zief, it's, Kazuo Ueda, Harry Robertson, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Jackson, Stephen Coates, Bernadette Baum, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Brent, FTSE, Nasdaq, Reuters Graphics Investors, . West Texas, JPMorgan Private Bank, of England, Bank of, Japan's Nikkei, Tokyo, Reuters, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Asia, Japan, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Bank of Japan, London, Tokyo

☆ Euro, sterling slide versus dollar ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six peers including yen, euro and sterling, held firm, though moves were subdued, up 0.13% to 104.73, as traders awaited the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) reading for August. The release comes just a week before Federal Reserve officials gather to decide on interest rate policy. The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0731 as markets raised their bets on further ECB rate hikes despite recent data showing the decline in euro zone business activity accelerated faster than initially thought last month. A source told Reuters that the ECB expects inflation in the 20-nation euro zone to remain above 3% next year, bolstering the case for a 10th consecutive interest rate increase on Thursday. YEN RETRACES GAINSThe yen fell as traders further digested comments from Japan's top central banker on a possible early exit from its negative interest rate policy.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, BoE, Stephen Gallo, Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank . Sterling, YEN RETRACES, Hiroshige Seko, Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, Joice Alves, Brigid Riley, Alison Williams, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Federal, ECB, FX, BMO Capital Markets, U.S, CPI, Reuters, Deutsche Bank ., Bank of Japan, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, London, Tokyo

☆ Dollar gains, crosses key 145 yen level
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. In the 12 months through July, the PPI rose 0.8% after a 0.2% gain the prior month. Prior to the inflation data, that chance was already above 85%. The stronger dollar led the yen to briefly touch 145.03 in late afternoon trade, its highest since June 30. Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, which prompted the Finance Ministry to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen.

Persons: Florence Lo, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, Everyone's, Marvin Loh, Loh, Moh Siong Sim, Herbert Lash, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Kirsten Donovan, William Maclean, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Federal, PPI, Labor Department, Treasury, Singapore, Finance Ministry, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Macquarie, New York, Boston, Japan, London, Singapore

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationBENGALURU, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will hold its ground against most major currencies over the coming three months as a resilient domestic economy bolsters expectations interest rates will remain higher for longer, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters. The dollar is unlikely to give up recent gains in coming months, according to the July 31-Aug. 2 Reuters poll of 70 FX strategists, which showed most major currencies would not reclaim their recent highs for at least six months. In response to an additional question, 27 of 40 FX strategists said net short USD positions would either not change much or decrease over the coming month, suggesting the dollar would be rangebound. Typically, these conditions often coincide with a more negative dollar outlook," said Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global FX at Goldman Sachs. At this point in time I wouldn't say so," said ECB President Christine Lagarde last week after delivering a widely anticipated 25 basis points (bps) rate increase.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs, Christine Lagarde, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo Shrivastava, Sujith Pai, Veronica Khongwir, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reuters, greenback, Federal Reserve, Central Bank, Fed, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of England, bps, Bank of, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bank of Japan

While an ISM survey offered a tough assessment of U.S. manufacturing conditions, so-called hard data suggest the sector is shuffling along. Federal Reserve data in June showed factory production rebounded in the second quarter, ending two straight quarterly declines. Meanwhile, U.S. construction spending increased solidly last month and May's data was revised higher, boosted by outlays in both single and multifamily housing projects, the Commerce Department said. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) missed analysts forecasts and showed the first decline in activity since April. Money markets now see a 60% probability that the Bank of England will hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Steven Ricchiuto, Carlos Casanova, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Herbert Lash, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Alex Richardson, Hugh Lawson, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, outlays, Commerce Department, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Mizuho Securities USA, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, U.S, Natixis Investment, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Bank of England, London, Singapore

☆ Aussie set for biggest one-day drop since March, yen at 3-week low
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Aussie fell 1.4% to $0.6626, wiping out the 0.87% gains it clocked in July and set for its sharpest daily drop since March. "I think it was right that the RBA held today, given trimmed mean inflation and unemployment matched the RBA's forecasts. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) missed analysts forecasts and showed the first decline in activity since April. The euro eased 0.2% to $1.0975, not too far from an almost three-week low touched on Friday. Money markets now see a 60% probability that the Bank of England will hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

Persons: David Gray, Matt Simpson, Carlos Casanova, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Alex Richardson, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan's, City, Federal, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, China, Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Bank of England, London, Singapore

☆ Morgan Stanley: Lower inflation has an unusual downside for companies reporting earnings right now, but these 11 stocks will be able to survive and thrive
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Earnings season will reveal which companies will suffer a top line decline, Morgan Stanley says. At first glance, lower inflation seems like a boon for market watchers worried about a recession. While investors curse higher inflation, companies have come to see it as a blessing. He anticipates that disinflation will dig away at sales this earnings season, and is prepared for disappointment. The results are the 11 stocks below that Wilson believes will have strong FCF yields and healthy operating margins through the earnings season.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs, They've, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Wilson isn't Organizations: FX, Federal Reserve

Deutsche Bank's emerging market carry strategy index had its best year on record in the 12 months to May. Reuters GraphicsOVERCROWDING FEARSInvestors, however, are becoming concerned the carry trade might be becoming too popular for its own good. "You have to be worried about some of these more crowded positions," said Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO Capital Markets. "I think that is big enough to offset any carry trade income," said Yujiro Goto, head of FX strategy for Japan at Nomura. A hypothetical $50,000 invested in a short Norwegian crown, long dollar carry trade in the first three weeks of July would have lost $3,000, according to Refinitiv.

Persons: Refinitiv, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs, Stephen Gallo, Gallo, James Athey, Yujiro Goto, Oliver Brennan, Brennan, Robin Winkler, Goldman's Trivedi, Geoff Yu, BNY Mellon, Harry Robertson, Alun John, Ankur, Rae Wee, Bernadette Baum Organizations: LONDON, Bank of America, FX, Deutsche, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, BMO Capital Markets, Nomura, BNP Paribas, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Reuters Graphics, Federal, Deutsche Bank, Swiss, Reuters, Korean, BNY, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Japan, European, U.S, America, Asia, London, Singapore

☆ The weaponization of the dollar will reverse globalization and kill the WTO, it was warned. That's a real threat today as dedollarization gathers force.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

US economic sanctions have spawned something of a global backlash, in the form of the dedollarization movement. This was anticipated as early as 2019, by an expert who warned the weaponization of the dollar could have serious consequences for the global economic system. Back in 2023, dedollarization is a thingFast forward to 2023, and some of the recent rumblings across the global currency and monetary landscape are strikingly in line with Sen's prognostications. All that could come at a huge cost to the global economy – and drive a "complete reversal of global economic integration," he wrote. The dollar's share of global reserves could slowly decline, but no alternatives exist that could completely displace the US currency, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last month.

Persons: Julius Sen, Donald Trump, Sen, prognostications, Emmanuel Macron, Elon Musk, –, optimists, Paul Krugman, Janet Yellen, Putin Organizations: London School of Economics, Service, UN, SWIFT, Allianz, WTO, FX Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Brazil, Iran, Tehran, Russia, Ukraine, India, Europe

☆ Dedollarization of global FX reserves? Not so fast, Allianz says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recent moves led by China and Russia to challenge the dollar's global dominance has attracted much attention. But Allianz says the greenback's supremacy faces no serious threat, saying "any significant switch will take a long time to evolve". Dollar assets' unmatched liquidity and the private sector's heavy reliance on the greenback will support it over the longer term, according to the German financial services giant. But the greenback's status as the world's reserve currency faces no real threat for the foreseeable future, according to Allianz. The dollar still makes up almost 60% of all global reserves – while China's yuan accounts for just 3%, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Persons: Ludovic Subran, It's Organizations: Allianz, Service, International Monetary Fund Locations: China, Russia, Wall, Silicon, Argentina, Beijing

A jump in the number of people working part-time for economic reasons also suggested a weaker labor market, but the pace of job growth remains strong and with inflation still double the Fed's target rate, a rate hike this month is likely. "The Fed is being hawkish and that prevents the dollar from depreciating too much. After the jobs data, futures pointed to an 88.8% probability that the Fed hikes in three weeks. Adding a tailwind to the rally in the yen was some position-squaring among speculators, who have built up sizeable bearish positions, Hardman said. The Australian dollar rose 0.8% to $0.6681, but it is still battered by weak Chinese economic data and broad risk aversion.

Persons: Joe Manimbo, We're, Thierry Wizman, They've, Lee Hardman, Hardman, YEN, Herbert Lash, Amanda Cooper, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes, Mark Potter, Barbara Lewis, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Federal Reserves, Labor Department, Treasury, ECB, Strong U.S, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, New York, London, Singapore

☆ Dollar eases after strong labor market reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - The dollar eased after a brief rebound on Thursday as data showing the U.S. labor market remains strong increased chances the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month. "Take it together with how equity markets have responded, that gives a clear picture of the dollar today. The dollar index , measuring the U.S. currency against six others including the euro and Japan's yen, fell 0.18% to 103.13. "The FX market is taking more of a 'one-dimensional approach' to trading the British disease," said Stephen Gallo, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets. The Chinese yuan last traded down slightly at 7.2575 per dollar in the offshore market , a day after falling about 0.4%.

Persons: payrolls, Brian Daingerfield, Lorie Logan, Brad Bechtel, Stephen Gallo, Gallo, Bitcoin, Herbert Lash, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, David Holmes, Mark Potter, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Reserve, Labor Department, Institute for Supply Management, NatWest Markets, Fed, Dallas, FX, Jefferies, of England, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, Stamford , Connecticut, London, Singapore

With economic and monetary policy outlooks varying, currency moves are increasingly out of sync with each other. More pain is also anticipated for the yuan, trading near seven-month lows, as well as smaller Asian currencies. It's continuing to weaken against some European currencies and also Latin American currencies," he said. MULTI-LAYERED CRISISKit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Societe Generale, said the focus on monetary policy differences was also a result of uncertainties elsewhere. "We've got a one-in-a-100-years pandemic and once-in-75-years war and a-once-in-25-years energy crisis all thrown into the mix together," said SocGen's Juckes.

Persons: Yen, Pound, Jordan Rochester, Nomura, Lee Hardman, Hardman, Juckes, Morgan Stanley reckons, We've, SocGen's, You’ve, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alun John, John Stonestreet Organizations: The Bank of, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Rochester, Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Europe, COVID, Ukraine, The Bank of Japan, United States, Beijing, Scandinavia

Any optimism could be punctured, however, by inflation data from China. April's CPI report showed inflation virtually evaporated, highlighting Beijing's challenge to stimulate enough economic activity and growth to kill the threat of deflation. The weak jobless claims figures torpedoed the dollar more broadly, sank Treasury yields, and cooled Fed rate hike expectations. Remarkably, the main measure of U.S. stock market volatility is at a pre-pandemic low, and implied global FX volatility is its lowest in over a year too. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- China CPI inflation (May)- China PPI inflation (May)- South Korea current account (April)By Jamie McGeever; editing by Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Deepa Babington Organizations: Nasdaq, Treasury, Wall, China PPI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, China, Japan, South Korea

May 28 (Reuters) - Good news of a tentative deal for the U.S. debt ceiling impasse may quickly turn out to be bad news for financial markets. "That's where the debt ceiling matters." In that case, "the impact on broader financial markets would likely be relatively muted," Daniel Krieter, director of fixed income strategy, BMO Capital Markets, said in a report. Some bankers said they fear financial markets may not have accounted for the risk of a liquidity drain from banks' reserves. Bankers put it to hope that the debt ceiling impasse would be resolved without significant dislocation to markets, but warn that's a risky strategy.

☆ ANALYST VIEW Investors react to tentative US debt ceiling deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Where there were the most distortions from the uncertainty was in the credit markets and in the Treasury bill market... And so, I think Treasury bond yields will stay high for a while that supply is absorbed. "As far as the dollar goes, I'm inclined to think that it could strengthen the dollar a little bit because it will weaken the argument for de-dollarization. But not by much just a little bit more, because the dollar has already strengthened in the last few weeks quite a bit." Or whether those matters are going also going to be resolved with a long-term deal.

☆ Asia shares inch higher, U.S. inflation test looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The survey should point to further broad-based tightening in bank lending standards," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. "Though our analysis suggests that the impact of a credit tightening against an otherwise healthy backdrop tends to be limited." S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both off 0.1%, after jumping on Friday in the wake of Apple's (AAPL.O) upbeat results. The dollar stood at 135.19 yen , with the euro at 148.93 and not far from its recent 15-year peak of 151.55. Brent was last up 3 cents at $75.33 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 5 cents to $71.39 per barrel.

The Swedish crown weakened sharply after the country's central bank was less hawkish than expected, while the euro rebounded 0.65% from losses on Tuesday when jitters over U.S. regional banks buoyed the safe-haven dollar. But the market expects further rate hikes from the European Central Bank, a difference with the Fed that is driving currency moves. The euro rose 1.05% against the crown to a high of 11.426, set for its biggest one-day gain since early March. Sterling was last trading at $1.2462, up 0.44% on the day, while the yen strengthened 0.28% at 133.34 per dollar. Investor attention will firmly be on the slate of central bank meetings in the next few weeks with the Bank of Japan, under the new Governor Kazuo Ueda, holding its policy meeting later this week.

Analysis of global central bank coffers does show the dollar's share of overall reserve holdings is gradually being chipped away - but the official sector is not selling dollar-denominated assets. In fact it's still buying them on aggregate, and the private sector is too. The overseas private sector was also a solid buyer of U.S. agency debt, further calling into question the narrative in some market quarters that the dollar's status as the world's preeminent currency is rapidly eroding. Jen calculates that the dollar's share of official global reserves slumped to 47% last year, down from 55% the year before and 73% in 2001. Including the private sector, total foreign inflows into Treasuries over the past two years have been substantial.

☆ The yen could reach 120 per dollar, up 20% from October's peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A Japanese 10,000 yen and a U.S. 100 dollar banknote juxtaposed against each other in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, June 20, 2016. The Japanese yen could strengthen to 120 per dollar by the end of the year on the back of a change in the central bank policy. "We have quite high conviction in our view — we're looking at 125 [per dollar] by the end of June, and we're actually looking at 120 by the end of this year," said Craig Chan, Nomura's head of global FX strategy. "We believe the Fed is at the peak. There's certainly, in our view, still tweak risk around BOJ policy," said Chan.

EURNOK and inflationGoldman Sachs and UBS said that the rising cost of borrowing would likely support the Norwegian crown. But those daily sales are well down from the 4.3 billion crowns per day the central bank sold in October. "Any budget surplus that was generated from the commodity exports was basically being neutralized by the Norges bank," said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex. Much of the crown's fate could also depend on what the U.S. central bank does. If the Fed stops hiking rates, this would likely boost global equities, which have a strong positive correlation to the Norwegian crown.

The underlying trend though for the dollar remained tilted to the downside and Wednesday's U.S. private sector jobs numbers affirmed that. The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March, suggesting a cooling labor market. Private employment increased by 145,000 jobs last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 200,000. Another report on Wednesday also indicated continued economic weakness, this time in the services sector.

☆ Dollar towers on lingering effects of Powell's testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

In the second day of his testimony to Congress on Wednesday, Powell reaffirmed his hawkish message, though struck a cautious note that debate on the scale and path of future rate hikes was still underway and would be data-dependent. As a result, the U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six peers, slipped 0.02% to 105.61. Conversely, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday left its key overnight interest rate on hold at 4.50%, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its monetary tightening campaign. The Canadian dollar stood at 1.3808 per U.S. dollar on Thursday, after having weakened to a more than four-month low in the previous session following the decision. Elsewhere, the kiwi rose 0.03% to $0.6107, having slumped to a near four-month low in the previous session.

☆ Dollar advances, Aussie slides as Australia economy slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Australia's economy grew at the weakest pace in a year last quarter while the country's monthly consumer prices rose less than expected in January, separate data showed on Wednesday. The Aussie slumped in the aftermath of the data to a two-month trough, and was last 0.47% lower at $0.6697. "We see the Fed going to 5.5%, with a growing risk of 6%," said Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank. Elsewhere, the dollar rose 0.12% against the Japanese yen to 136.38, after having spiked close to 5% against the yen in February, its largest monthly gain since last June. The kiwi fell 0.28% to $0.6167, while the Chinese offshore yuan slipped marginally to 6.9603 per dollar.

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