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Crude oil futures rose Monday following their best week since April as traders sifted through mixed economic data out of China. U.S. crude oil and global benchmark Brent closed out last week nearly 4% higher, as analysts expect the market to tighten in the third quarter as summer fuel demand draws down inventories. Oil stockpiles should fall by 850,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. "It's more of a sense that this market is likely to get tighter as we go deeper in summer," Croft told CNBC's "Closing Bell Overtime" on Friday. Here are today's energy prices:"After three weeks of losses the oil complex finally made amends and gained some traction," said Tamas Varga, analyst at oil broker PVM.
Persons: Helima Croft, Croft, CNBC's, Tamas Varga Organizations: Brent, RBC Capital Markets Locations: China . U.S
Oil prices are up more than 4.5% for the week, the strongest gains since early April, when futures rose on boiling geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Crude oil futures rose for a fifth day Friday, on pace for the best week in more than two months as analysts see a tighter market heading into the third quarter. Deutsche sees the oil supply deficit expanding to nearly 1 million barrels per day in the third quarter, which should support Brent prices rising to the mid-to-upper $80s per barrel range. "It would only take a minor overshoot to bring Brent to around USD 90/bbl at some point during the second half," Hsueh told clients. Citigroup also sees a tighter market in the third quarter, though the market will likely enter a surplus in 2025 on solid production growth and slowing demand, according to the bank.
Persons: Benny Gantz's, Helima Croft, Michael Hsueh, Brent, Hsueh Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, RBC, OPEC, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, bbl, Citigroup Locations: Israel, Lebanon
The detailed plan laid out by OPEC+ over the weekend to increase oil production delivered a "bearish surprise" to a market in which prices were already under downward pressure, according to Goldman Sachs. OPEC+ plan difficult to reverse The OPEC+ members said the production increases are subject to market conditions and could be reversed. Struyven described OPEC's forecast as "very bullish," with Goldman forecasting demand growth of 1.5 million bpd in 2024. Market could deteriorate in 2025 The oil market will remain in balance or in a slight deficit for the time being, according to Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities. Yet those cuts have failed to limit shale oil production in the U.S., Lipow said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Brent, WTI, Daan Struyven, Bob Yawger, Yawger, Helima Croft, Goldman's Struyven, Andrew Lipow, Struyven, Lipow, Ryan McKay, McKay, Daan Organizations: West Texas Intermediate, Goldman, OPEC, Mizuho Securities, CNBC, RBC Capital Markets, Lipow Oil Associates, TD Securities, JPMorgan Locations: OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, Senegal, Persian, Arabian
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo energy expects discuss oil prices as OPEC+ extends production cuts againAmena Bakr, Senior Research Analyst at Energy Intelligence, and Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, discuss oil prices following the latest OPEC+ production decision.
Persons: Amena Bakr, Helima Croft Organizations: Senior, Energy Intelligence, Global, Strategy, RBC Capital Markets
An offshore oil platform is seen at sunset near Huntington Beach, California, on Feb. 9, 2024. U.S. crude oil was on pace Friday for its worst month of the year, ahead of an OPEC+ meeting this weekend during which the cartel will review its production levels. Here are today's energy prices:OPEC+ members on Sunday are expected to review voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. Oil market analysts generally agree that the group will likely keep those cuts in place. Chinese refiners' output has also slumped, and European refiners have been slow to return from spring maintenance, which has also pressured demand, according to the investment bank.
Persons: Helima Croft Organizations: Brent, Sunday, RBC Capital Markets, JPMorgan Locations: Huntington Beach , California, U.S
OPEC+ meeting: Here's what to expect
  + stars: | 2024-05-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOPEC+ meeting: Here's what to expectFrancisco Blanch, BofA Securities head of global commodity and derivatives research, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what to expect from OPEC this weekend, if Chinese oil demand is rising, and more.
Persons: Francisco Blanch Organizations: BofA Securities
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBofA: Investors are becoming more constructive on the commodity complexFrancisco Blanch, Head of Global Commodity and Derivatives Research at BofA Securities, disucsses the surge in commodity prices, including copper and cocoa.
Persons: Blanch Organizations: Global Commodity, BofA Securities
Wheat futures hit a one-week high on renewed concerns over dry weather in Russia, the world's biggest wheat supplier. In Argentina, corn stunt disease spread by leaf-cutter insects and adverse weather prompted the Buenos Aires grains exchange to slash its estimate for Argentina's 2023/24 corn harvest by 3 millions metric tons to 46.5 tons. In wheat, Russia's IKAR agricultural consultancy cut its forecast for the country's crop to 91 million metric tons from 93 million tons and its wheat exports to 50.5 million metric tons from 52 million tons. Wheat futures jumped as weather forecasts showed the region getting virtually no rain in the coming two weeks. Managed money funds held a net short position in CBOT wheat futures at the beginning of 2024 because of a strong dollar and slow U.S. demand, Zuzolo said.
Persons: Jim Niewold, Susan Stroud, Mike Zuzolo, Nature, Zuzolo Organizations: Chicago Board of Trade, Global, Analytics Locations: Loda , Illinois, Brazil, Russia, Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul, Argentina, Buenos Aires, South America
High inflation will stay for longer as commodity prices rallied again after falling for two years, World Bank Group says. The bank expects global inflation to jump by a solid percentage point by 2024 due to the flip-flop oil prices driven by geopolitical risks. But this sluggish decline will buoy commodity prices around 38% higher than pre-COVID averages, offering little relief for inflation-weary economies. The World Bank warned that a significant disruption could propel oil prices beyond $100 per barrel, hiking global inflation by almost a full percentage point in 2024. That fear of lower growth and high inflation was on display in the US on Thursday, as first-quarter GDP came in much lower than expected even as consumer prices remained high in the quarter.
Persons: , wanes, Indermit Gill, Ayhan Kose Organizations: World Bank, Service, World Bank Group, Bank Locations: Israel, Iran, Ukraine, Russia
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI've never been more enthusiastic on the outlook for copper, says Freeport-McMoRan CEORichard Adkerson, Freeport-McMoRan CEO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the global commodity supply chain, metal commodity demand, markets in China and more.
Persons: Richard Adkerson Organizations: McMoRan Locations: Freeport, China
CNN —After a disastrous year marked by high costs, accusations of environmental harm and project cancellations in 2023, there’s a sense the US offshore wind industry is on a rebound. But offshore wind is increasingly Trump-proof, according to a top White House climate official, wind CEOs and an industry analyst. “This year will be a significant year for offshore wind development,” BOEM director Elizabeth Klein told CNN in a statement. The US supply chain for offshore wind is still being built; therefore, projects are turning to European manufacturers to get blades, gearboxes, and other components. Now, he said, Northeast governors “just want to make sure their states have energy.”New York has been aggressively pursuing offshore wind projects, rebidding previously canceled projects and accepting those projects at higher prices.
Persons: , Sam Huntington, , aren’t, Donald Trump –, Trump, Ali Zaidi, that’s, ” Zaidi, we’ve, Zaidi, “ We’re, ” Huntington, Elizabeth Klein, Matthew J, Lee, There’s, Clint Plummer, ” Plummer, Pedro Azagra Blázquez, ” Blázquez, rebidding, Plummer, they’re Organizations: CNN, P, White House, White, Biden, US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Vineyard, New, Boston Globe, Power Locations: Wisconsin, Trump, Europe, Gulf of Maine, Oregon, New Bedford, Massachusetts, Huntington, New York, Danish, Asia, Friendly, New England, York
Recent weakness in the market shouldn't deter investors from finding pockets of opportunity, particularly in artificial intelligence-related companies, according to BlackRock's Kate Moore. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 fell for a second week last week. "I think healthy consolidation after an extremely strong return in the first quarter is completely fair, and doesn't change the fundamentals," Moore said in an interview. Moore sees an opportunity in two of BlackRock's highest-conviction themes: AI-adjacent software and semiconductor companies, and global commodity producers and miners, particularly those related to copper. She expects better breadth in terms of earnings growth this quarter, which should support long-term investor confidence in the equity market.
Persons: Kate Moore, Stocks, There's, Moore, it's Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Devices
Before this weekend's tanker seizure, the last vessel Iran hijacked was the St. Nikolas on January 1. A Planet Labs satellite image of the location of the MSC Aries and other tankers recently hijacked by Iran. Planet Labs PBCAs the U.S. considers more sanctions against Iran in response to its recent attack on Israel, Iran has been using the hijacked ships as a means of sanctions retaliation. Iran chose to do this as a way to compensate for sanctions," Madani said. In a note to clients, ClearView highlighted that the House of Representatives added several Iran sanctions bills to its calendar for consideration this week, under suspension rules, including new sanctions on Iranian oil exports to China.
Persons: Nikolas, Houthis, Samir Madani, Eyal Ofer's, Madani, Janet Yellen, Helima Croft, Andy Lipow, Brent, Lipow, Kevin Book, Book Organizations: Anadolu, Getty, MSC Aries, U.S . Naval Forces Central Command, Galaxy Leader, MSC, Planet Labs, U.S . Energy Information Agency, United Arab, JPMorgan, CNBC, Lipow Oil Associates, ClearView Energy Partners, US, UN Locations: Gulf of Oman, Hormuz, Anadolu, Iran, Israel, Gaza, U.S, Iranian, Khuran, China, Russia, Malaysia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Strait, Tehran, East, North Africa, India, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, France, Germany
But the calm could be short lived, as world leaders and markets focus on Israel’s response. Military clashes don’t always sink the markets, as was the case when Hamas attacked Israel in October and Israel retaliated. “We may be entering one of the most treacherous geopolitical eras since World War II,” Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s C.E.O., warned last week. “Take the win,” President Biden reportedly told Israel’s embattled prime minister after the attack was rebuffed with American help. Iran has signaled that the attack was a one-and-done, but Israel’s war cabinet hasn’t indicated its next move.
Persons: Israel, ” Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s, Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden, hasn’t, Helima Croft Organizations: JPMorgan, , RBC Capital Markets Locations: Israel, Ukraine, United States, Iran
Mounting geopolitical tensions stemming from conflict in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have helped drive oil prices to five month highs, challenging the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation. U.S. crude oil gained 4.5% this week, touching $87 a barrel on Friday before settling at $86.91. Rising energy prices may affect the timing or magnitude of interest rate cuts, he said. The Federal Reserve is focused on bringing down core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices. Escalating attacks are coming against a backdrop of an already tightening global crude market.
Persons: Brent, Bart Melek, Andy Lipow, Lipow, Bob Yawger, Yawger, Netanyahu, Manish Raj, White, Biden, John Kilduff, Kilduff, Melek, Saudi Arabia doesn't Organizations: Federal, American Automobile Association, West Texas, TD Securities, Lipow Oil Associates, Mizuho Americas, Valero, Philips, Marathon Petroleum, Velandera Energy Partners, Kyiv, JPMorgan, Financial Times, Again Capital, Bank of America, Saudi Locations: East, Eastern Europe, Iran, Israel, Ukraine, Damascus, Kyiv, Ukrainian, Russia, Saudi Arabia
Energy stocks rise after crude oil prices touch five-month highs
  + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEnergy stocks rise after crude oil prices touch five-month highsFrancisco Blanch, BofA Securities head of global commodity and derivatives research, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss what's driving energy prices, geopolitical impacts on energy supply and demand, and more.
Persons: Francisco Blanch Organizations: Energy, BofA Securities
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOil, copper and gold prices on the rise: BofA Securities' Francisco Blanch on commodity price trendsFrancisco Blanch, BofA Securities head of global commodity and derivatives research, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the oil, copper and gold markets, why prices are reaching their highest levels in months, impact of interest rates, and more.
Persons: Francisco, Francisco Blanch Organizations: Email, BofA Securities
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSlowing oil demand will keep barrel prices between $60-80 into 2029, says BofA's Francisco BlanchFrancisco Blanch, BofA Securities head of global commodity and derivatives research, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss BofA's forecast for oil prices, the impacts these prices would have on oil-producing countries, and more.
Persons: BofA's Francisco Blanch Francisco Blanch Organizations: BofA Securities
Rerouting of oil is starting to impact the market, analyst says
  + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRerouting of oil is starting to impact the market, analyst saysAndy Critchlow, head of news, EMEA, at S&P Global Commodity Insights, discusses the outlook for the oil market amid geopolitical tensions.
Persons: Andy Critchlow Organizations: P, Commodity
Photographer: Lionel Ng/Bloomberg via Getty Images Lionel Ng | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesSingapore's central bank left its policy unchanged on Monday in its first quarterly monetary policy decision of 2024, as expected. The central bank strengthens or weakens its currency against those of its main trading partners, thus effectively setting the S$NEER. The central bank estimates core inflation to average between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2024, unchanged from its October forecast. Economists will monitor for clues on when Singapore's central bank will begin to loosen monetary policy. Singapore's central bank ended its policy tightening cycle in April after five consecutive decisions to tighten.
Persons: Lionel Ng, Goldman Sachs, Yun Liu, CNBC's, Liu Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Monetary Authority, Singapore, MAS, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: Singapore, Central, ASEAN
Kevin Dietsch | Getty ImagesCongressional lawmakers are demanding President Joe Biden strike Iran after three U.S. troops were killed Sunday night in Jordan in a drone strike claimed by the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, an Iranian-backed militia group. Iran has not commented on the attack, while Jordan's government denied it took place on its soil. "I am calling on the Biden Administration to strike targets of significance inside Iran, not only as reprisal for the killing of our forces, but as deterrence against future aggression," Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham said in a statement. Elmurod Usubaliev | Anadolu | Getty ImagesThe attack marks another regional escalation in a war that the Biden administration has tried to contain. Meanwhile, Lebanese Shia militia group Hezbollah and Israel are exchanging fire along the Israeli-Lebanese border, while Iran earlier this month struck targets in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan.
Persons: Lindsey Graham, Kevin Dietsch, Joe Biden, Republican Sen, Roger Wicker, Biden, Elmurod, Helima Croft Organizations: Sen, U.S, Capitol, Getty, Islamic, Hamas, Biden Administration, Republican, Senate Armed Services Committee, Anadolu, Lebanese Hezbollah, RBC Capital Markets Locations: Washington , DC, Iran, Jordan, Iraq, Iranian, U.S, Israel, Ankara, Turkiye, Yemeni, Gaza, Israel's, Yemen, Lebanese, Syria, Pakistan, Iraqi, United States
A commodity "super squeeze" is denoted by higher prices driven by supply constraints more than a robust growth in demand, he explained. "If it's a supply constraint that's driving high commodity prices, it's a very different story for global growth," he told CNBC via Zoom. Higher prices as a result of a super squeeze are "not as positive." The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected. He highlighted that extreme weather events and geopolitics have also impacted the agricultural and energy commodity baskets.
Persons: Li Xin, Paul Bloxham, Bloxham, Brian Luke S, Dow, HSBC's Bloxham, Ian Waldie, Brian Luke, Matty Zhao Organizations: Technology, Getty, Visual China, HSBC, CNBC, Paul Bloxham HSBC, Energy, Commission, Commodities, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, of America Securities Locations: SUIXI, CHINA, Anhui, Suixi County, Huaibei City, Anhui Province, China, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, Red, Australia, Asia, Pacific
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Tesla shares plunge 12%Shares of electric vehicle maker Tesla plunged 12%, their biggest drop in over a year. Commodity markets in 'super squeeze' spotSupply disruptions and lack of investment are putting global commodity markets in a "super squeeze," according to HSBC. Some investors have been wary since Beijing has been struggling with a property debt crisis that has triggered financial risks across the broader economy.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Tesla Organizations: CNBC, U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, HSBC, Pro Locations: Emmaus, Emmaus , Pennsylvania, Asia, Pacific, Tesla, China, Beijing
Supply is forecast to grow by 1.5 million barrels per day to a new high of 103.5 million barrels per day, according to the IEA. Demand will grow by 1.2 million barrels daily, down from 2.3 million in 2023, with the post-pandemic recovery over and major economies set to slow. WTI and Brent closed out 2023 down more than 10% and OPEC+ production cuts have so far failed to lift prices. Goldman Sachs, for example, says oil prices could double if there is a prolonged disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. 'Golden era' Stronger U.S. oil production in 2023 surprised even oil industry CEOs such as Chevron's Wirth and Occidental's Vicki Hollub, they told CNBC in recent interviews.
Persons: Michael Wirth, Wirth, CNBC's Brian Sullivan, Goldman Sachs, Walt Chancellor, Daniel Yergin, Brent, Adi Imsirovic, Imsirovic, Yergin, Bob Yawger, Yawger, Matt Smith, Smith, Chevron's Wirth, Occidental's Vicki Hollub, I'm, Macquarie, Chancellor, Hollub, Organizations: P, Energy Information Agency, Chevron, P Global, CNBC, Economic, West Texas, Center for Strategic, International Studies, OPEC, Bank of America, Oil, International Energy Agency, IEA, Brent, Mizuho, Gulf, Americas, Western Hemisphere Locations: East, U.S, Macquarie, Davos, Switzerland, Canada, United States, United Kingdom, OPEC, Brazil, Guyana, Americas, Europe, Red, Kpler, Iran, Hormuz
China was due Wednesday to release GDP figures for 2023, and previously announced an official target of around 5% growth for the year. Despite significant growth in sectors such as tourism and electric cars, China's economy last year did not rebound from the pandemic as quickly as many banks had initially expected. watch nowThe International Monetary Fund in November also cited China's policy announcements as a reason for its decision to raise the 2023 growth forecast to 5.4%, from 5% previously. However, the IMF said it still expected China's growth to slow in 2024 to 4.6% "amid continuing weakness in the property market and subdued external demand." In the long term, analysts generally expect China's economy to slow further from a high base.
Persons: Pan Jianyong, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Li Qiang, Haibin Zhu, Li Organizations: Co, Getty, Visual China, BEIJING —, Economic, Tuesday, UBS, Citi, JPMorgan, CNBC, China, China Economic, Monetary Fund Locations: MEISHAN, CHINA, Sichuan, Meishan, Sichuan Province, China, Davos, Beijing, decelerating
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