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Ukrainian state energy firm Naftogaz said in a Tuesday tweet that “Gazprom accused Ukraine of stealing gas. Russia is also sending gas to Europe via the TurkStream pipeline that runs through Turkey to Bulgaria. If Russia halted exports through Ukraine, Europe would lose about 4 billion cubic meters of gas — or just 1% of its estimated gas demand for 2022 — between December and March, Filippenko said. The continent’s gas storage facilities are nearly 95% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. In this context, a total shut off of Moscow’s pipeline gas through Ukraine would cause “minimal” damage, Filippenko said.

LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Europe’s gas storage probably peaked this week ahead of the winter after a refill season that shattered records for its length and the volume of gas injected into storage sites across the region. Inventories in the European Union and the United Kingdom reached 1,079 terawatt-hours (TWh) on Nov. 13, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, GIE, Nov. 18). Chartbook: European gas inventoriesEuropean inventories have been boosted by record high prices, government storage mandates, reduced consumption by households and industries, and unusually mild temperatures through October and early November. As a result, Europe’s record refill and plentiful inventories have left consumers in countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh at risk of gas shortages, rationing and power cuts this winter. Related columns:- Europe’s gas prices retreat as storage almost full (Reuters, Oct. 13)- Mission accomplished?

☆ Europe Needs Luck to Escape the Worst of Gas Crisis
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Carol Ryan | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Europe has just begun drawing on the gas it hurriedly put into storage after Russia cut pipeline flows. To be in as good shape next year, the region can’t afford to deplete it too much this winter. This week, the European Union flipped from making net injections of gas into storage to withdrawals for the first time this season. In 2021 and 2020, the switch happened much earlier, in mid-October and late September respectively, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data. Mild weather has delayed the need to turn on the heating in Europe’s homes and commercial buildings, which normally accounts for around half of the region’s annual gas needs.

☆ Europe still can't live without Russian LNG exports
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN Business —Europe may be closer than ever to breaking its energy dependence on Moscow, but it still can’t live without one type of Russian natural gas. Russian imports doubled in the year to September to 1.2 million tons, Rystad data shows. The majority of the Russian LNG imports come from privately owned Novatek, the country’s second-largest natural gas producer after Gazprom. “I expect that Russian LNG will continue to play an important role in filling European storage going into winter of 2023,” he told CNN Business. “[Europe] would rather get whatever [it] can in terms of Russian pipeline gas and Russian LNG… it would take a lot before [it] would think about sanctioning gas or LNG from Russia,” Ramesh said.

Chartbook: European gas inventories and consumptionInventory accumulation since the start of April has been the fastest on record (+770 TWh) and stocks have continued rising much later into the autumn than normal. Onshore storage is 95% full compared with the prior 10-year seasonal average of 89% ("Aggregated gas storage inventory", GIE, Nov. 4). Seven countries (Germany, Italy, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Belgium and Poland) account for 80% of the EU's total gas consumption. Related columns:- Europe’s gas inventories, the risk from complacency (Reuters, Oct. 26)- Europe's gas prices retreat as storage almost full (Reuters, Oct. 13)- Mission accomplished? Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule (Reuters, Oct. 4)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ Goldman Sachs expects European natural gas prices to tumble 30% in the coming months
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European gas prices are expected to drop to 85 euros megawatt hour in the coming months, said Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs predicts that European natural gas prices would drop by about 30% in the coming months as nations gain a temporary upper hand on supply issues. The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) is Europe's main benchmark for natural gas prices. It traded at around 120 euros per megawatt hour on Tuesday. But Goldman Sachs expects this benchmark to fall to 85 euros per megawatt hour in the first quarter of 2023, according to a research note published last week. Indeed, the latest data compiled by industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe shows storage levels in Europe are sitting at 94%.

The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) is Europe's main benchmark for natural gas prices. In addition, intraday European gas prices even went negative at the start of the week — meaning that holders of natural gas paid buyers to take the cargo off their hands. Nikoline Bromander, analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy, said high output from wind power and political agreement within the EU on cooperative measures to reduce gas prices and consumption have contributed to lowering gas prices. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the EU was obtaining about 40% of all its natural gas from Moscow. Several experts have warned that Europe's high storage levels were to a large extent achieved with Russian gas.

Benchmark gas futures prices for nearby months have already slumped as storage space starts to run out, while inventories continue to accumulate at unusually fast rates for the time of year. Calendar spreads from November through January have shifted into contango as inventories are expected to be plentiful in the first part of winter. Inventories are now 128 TWh (14% or 1.20 standard deviations) above the 10-year seasonal average for 2012-2021 (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, Gas Infrastructure Europe, Oct. 26). Related columns:- Europe's gas prices retreat as storage almost full (Reuters, Oct. 13)- Mission accomplished? Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule (Reuters, Oct. 4)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

London CNN Business —Europe has more natural gas than it knows what to do with. Now, EU gas storage facilities are close to full, tankers carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) are lining up at ports, unable to unload their cargoes, and prices are tumbling. The price of benchmark European natural gas futures has dropped 20% since last Thursday, and by more than 70% since hitting a record high in late August. Prices turned negative because of an “oversupplied grid,” Tomas Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at the Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS), told CNN Business. The bloc has ramped up imports of LNG from the United States and Qatar as natural gas imports from Russia plummeted.

LONDON, Oct 26 (Reuters) - European benchmark gas prices have been steadily declining over the past few months to near their levels before war broke out in Ukraine. WHY HAVE GAS PRICES BEEN FALLING RECENTLY? The European Union as a whole also met a target for refilling gas storage sites to 80% by Nov. 1 ahead of time. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply and Norwegian pipeline supply have been strong. Added to that, wind power output has been quite high, which reduces demand for gas from power plants.

☆ Mercedes CEO says Europe’s gas crisis will accelerate its shift to renewables
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Michelle Toh | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Hong Kong CNN Business —Europe’s gas crisis will be “a catalyst” for Mercedes-Benz to push deeper into clean energy, says its CEO. The German government had already set in motion a crisis management plan that could see rationing gas to businesses if that happened. The group has also signed on to use a wind energy facility in the Baltic Sea that will “add another 25%” of capacity, said Källenius. “We’re going to diversify, we’re going to make ourselves more resilient, and of course we’re going to go carbon-free,” he added. The company unveiled the electric vehicle Sunday at the Paris Motor Show, as part of efforts to further diversify its lineup.

Chartbook: Europe gas prices and storageMAXIMUM STORAGEInventories in the European Union and the United Kingdom (EU28) have climbed to 1,029 terawatt-hours (TWh), according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. Stocks are +110 TWh (+12% or +1.0 standard deviations) above the seasonal average for the previous ten years ("Aggregated gas storage inventory", GIE, Oct. 13). STILL NOT ENOUGHThe combination of falling nearby prices with firming prices later in the winter and the rest of 2023 highlights the limitations of Europe's storage system. In that case, the market will still need much higher prices or some form of physical rationing to conserve stocks later in the winter. Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule (Reuters, Oct. 4)- Europe tops up gas stocks, but winter demand cuts essential (Reuters, Sept. 7)- EU prepares public opinion for winter gas siege (Reuters, July 27)- Europe forced to pay even higher prices to fill gas storage (Reuters, July 5)- Europe fills gas storage at record rate as Asia's buyers step aside (Reuters, May 17)- Europe makes rapid start on refilling gas storage (Reuters, May 4)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ Europe has enough energy to survive the winter. Next year might be different
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Cornelius Poppe/NTB/AFP/Getty ImagesBut success has come at a heavy cost to the economy: the scramble for alternative sources has sent energy prices soaring. Alexei Miller, CEO of Russian state energy giant Gazprom, said on Wednesday that there was “no guarantee” that Europe would survive the winter with its current reserves. “Adopting policies that prevent the pass-through of high energy prices to consumers is an expensive gamble that is doomed to fail if wholesale energy prices will stay high in the future,” he added. Carlos Torres Diaz, head of power analysis at Rystad Energy, told CNN business that Europe’s energy transition “has been put on hold” as it prioritizes energy security. “These sources of energy also help reduce the dependency on energy imports,” Torres Diaz added.

☆ Rocketing energy costs are savaging German industry
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-07 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

“We don’t need a crystal ball to see a further weakening of German industry in the coming months. The full impact of higher energy prices will only be felt in the last months of the year,” he said. Energy prices started rising last fall, and then shot even higher when Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, sparking an energy standoff between Europe and Moscow. Energy costs at Prysmian’s six German factories are expected to soar to €20 million ($20 million) this year from just €5 million ($5 million) in 2021. “German industry, the so-called ‘Mittlestand’, the small and medium [sized] companies, are quite resilient and adaptable,” he said.

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