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☆ What to expect from the jobs report: Steady, but cooler growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

But markets and economists are expecting another solid jobs report Friday morning. And while economic data isn’t typically the sexiest of topics, the government’s jobs report has in recent months delivered plenty of excitement and its fair share of surprises. Last July, for example, the US economy added 568,000 jobs — more than double the 250,000 that economists had expected. Come Friday, the government’s jobs report for this July might not end up being quite so shocking. In fact, it could be relatively humdrum: A slight cooling in job growth, and unemployment holding steady.

Persons: Minneapolis CNN — Fitch, ”, Daniel Zhao, Refinitiv, Chris Rupkey, That’s, Michael Gapen, Janet Yellen, Glassdoor’s Zhao, ” Zhao, there’s, ” Andy Challenger, Challenger, ” Gus Faucher, they’re, Becky Frankiewicz, “ Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Glassdoor, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, Business, Conference Board, Fitch, Challenger, “ Companies, Labor Department, “, PNC Financial Services Group, CNN, Labor Statistics, BLS, “ Employers, ManpowerGroup Locations: Minneapolis, United States

☆ What to expect from the July jobs report: Steady, but cooler growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN —Despite Tuesday’s credit rating downgrade amid concerns about the challenges facing the United States, markets and economists are expecting another solid jobs report on Friday. And while economic data isn’t typically the sexiest of topics, the monthly jobs report has in recent months delivered plenty of excitement and its fair share of surprises. Come Friday, the government’s jobs report for this July might not end up being quite so shocking. In fact, it could be relatively humdrum: A slight cooling in job growth, and unemployment holding steady. The broader economic scorecard for the United States makes the downgrade all the more “bizarre” and puzzling, noted top economists, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Persons: ”, Daniel Zhao, Refinitiv, Chris Rupkey, That’s, Michael Gapen, Janet Yellen, Glassdoor’s Zhao, ” Zhao, there’s, ” Andy Challenger, Challenger, Gus Faucher, they’re, Becky Frankiewicz, “ Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Glassdoor, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, Fitch, Challenger, “ Companies, PNC Financial Services Group, CNN, Labor Statistics, BLS, “ Employers, ManpowerGroup Locations: Minneapolis, United States

☆ Wage Growth Slowed in Second Quarter, a Sign the Economy is Cooling
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Wage growth, by various measures, has softened in recent months, but inflation has fallen by even more. Workers are better off as a result: Pay, adjusted for inflation, rose in the second quarter for the first time in two years. The slowdown in wage growth has surprised some economists because the unemployment rate remains very low, which ordinarily would put pressure on companies to raise pay to attract and retain workers. But other evidence suggests that the labor market has softened even without a big increase in joblessness. Employers are posting fewer job openings, are adding fewer new jobs and are poaching fewer employees from competitors, all signs that demand for workers has slowed.

Persons: ”, Beth Ann Bovino, Michael Gapen Organizations: Workers, “, U.S . Bank, Fed, Bank of America Locations: joblessness

☆ U.S. Economy Grew at 2.4% Rate in Second Quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Instead, layoffs were mostly contained to a handful of industries, the banking crisis did not spread and even the housing market has begun to stabilize. “The things we were all freaked out about earlier this year all went away,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said on Wednesday that the central bank’s staff economists no longer expected a recession to begin this year. Still, many economists say consumers are likely to pull back their spending in the second half of the year, putting a drag on the recovery. And although unemployment remains low, job growth and wage growth have slowed.

Persons: ”, Michael Gapen, Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Tech, Bank of America, Fed, Savings

☆ The Federal Reserve just hiked interest rates to their highest level in 22 years. Here's how Wall Street is reacting, where the pros think investors should be putting their money, and why inflation is
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The Federal Reserve hiked rates in July, and it could be the final rate hike of the cycle. But while the latest rate hike was all but certain, there are still plenty of questions about what lies ahead. In a note from Wednesday evening, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius pointed out that Powell made it clear any further hikes will depend on inflation data. But Bank of America analysts led by US economist Michael Gapen remain unconvinced that the rate hike cycle is truly over. As for equities, Wall Street widely expected this week's rate hike, so there are no major changes to their second-half investing recommendations.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Henry Allen, shouldn't, Allen, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Powell, Hatzius, Gurpreet Gill, Gill, Peter Hooper, Michael Gapen, Gapen, Goldman's Gill, America's Gapen, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson Organizations: Federal, shouldn't, Deutsche Bank, Fed, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Bank of America, Bank, America's Locations: Wall

☆ Fake Rolex watches make up half of the luxury replica market, exec says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Half of replica watches are Rolex replicas, according to Watchfinder's CEO. The exec told Bloomberg that the brand sees the highest demand on replica markets. Meanwhile, prices for luxury watches have fallen near two-year lows on secondary markets. The replica watch market is getting more and more sophisticated, and roughly half the market is comprised of Rolex fakes, according to the chief executive of Watchfinder & Co. "You see replica or clone watches — very, very high quality watches — of virtually all of the big luxury brands," van de Vall told Bloomberg.

Persons: Arjen van de Vall, van de Vall, it's, Joe Biden, Michael Gapen Organizations: Bloomberg, Morning, Rolex, Watchfinder, JPMorgan, Bank, America's Locations: Swiss

☆ Bank of America's top stock picks for the third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America is out with its latest short-term stock picks as the third trading quarter of the year gets underway. "Over the last quarter, the BofA Macro view has evolved," strategist Anthony Cassamassino wrote in a note Monday. Bank of America gathered its 10 best ideas for the new quarter, all of them buy-rated, Cassamassino said. The bank also sees multiple growth drivers this year and improvements in merchandise margins as cost inflation and freight expenses normalize. Its $135 price target on the stock is more than 50% above its closing price Friday.

Persons: Anthony Cassamassino, Savita Subramanian, Michael Hartnett, Michael Gapen, Stephen Suttmeier, Cassamassino, it's, Lamb Weston, Wells, defensibility Organizations: of America, U.S, Our U.S . Economist, " Bank of America, Body, Bank of America, Disney, Wells Fargo Locations: Our

☆ The global economy is slowing down. Just look at the luxury watch market.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Prices for luxury watch brands like Rolex and Patek Philippe have fallen near two-year lows on secondary markets. Bloomberg's Subdial Watch Index has dropped about 19% in the last 12 months. Bloomberg's Subdial Watch Index, which tracks the 50 most-traded pre-owned watches, has fallen roughly 19% over the last 12 months. Meanwhile, the Patek Philippe Nautilus Travel Time has fallen 28%, and the Rolex Daytona 116506 has dropped 25%. President Joe Biden reiterated this week that he doesn't anticipate a recession, but Wall Street firms aren't so sure.

Persons: Patek Philippe, —, Philippe, Jerome Powell, Joe Biden, Michael Gapen Organizations: Rolex, Service, Bloomberg, Philippe Nautilus, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Bank, America's

☆ We see two more Fed rate hikes in July and September, says BofA's Michael Gapen
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe see two more Fed rate hikes in July and September, says BofA's Michael GapenMichael Gapen, BofA head of U.S. economics, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest economic data, the Fed's rate hike campaign, and more.

Persons: BofA's Michael Gapen Michael Gapen

☆ Just days after pausing rate hikes, Fed official calls for more increases
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington, DC CNN —The dust has barely settled on the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its aggressive rate-hiking campaign — but in public appearances Friday, central bank officials have a clear message: Keep hiking. In one of the first speeches, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that additional rate increases are necessary to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target. The Fed’s decision to restart hikes depends on what data show in the coming weeks and months. It is the job of bank leaders to deal with interest rate risk and nearly all bank leaders have done exactly that,” Waller said. A representative of the event said the conference wasn’t being recorded and that only registrants who paid a fee were able to attend.

Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, ”, Gregory Daco, Ernst & Young, ” Powell, Waller, “, Michael Gapen, Gapen, they’re, Louis President James Bullard, Thomas Barkin Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Norges Bank, International Monetary Fund, Ernst &, Bank, BofA Global Research, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Maryland Government Finance, Association Locations: Washington, Oslo, Norway, ”

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with BofA's Michael Gapen and Fitz-Gerald Group's Keith Fitz-Gerald
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with BofA's Michael Gapen and Fitz-Gerald Group's Keith Fitz-GeraldMichael Gapen, Bank of America Research head of U.S. economist, and Keith Fitz-Gerald, principal at the Fitz-Gerald Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's pause and next move.

Persons: BofA's Michael Gapen, Gerald Group's Keith Fitz, Gerald Michael Gapen, Keith Fitz, Gerald, Gerald Group Organizations: Bank of America Research

☆ The economy will move into 2024 without any downturn, says BofA's Michael Gapen
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy will move into 2024 without any downturn, says BofA's Michael GapenMichael Gapen, Bank of America Research head of U.S. economist, and Keith Fitz-Gerald, principal at the Fitz-Gerald Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's pause and next move.

Persons: BofA's Michael Gapen Michael Gapen, Keith Fitz, Gerald, Gerald Group Organizations: Bank of America Research

☆ The US will face a mild recession, but the risk of a 'hard landing' is currently low, Bank of America's chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy is currently resilient but will face a mild recession, Bank of America's Michael Gapen said. "Unless bank stress gets worse and a credit crunch is revealed, it's harder to see where that hard landing risk is coming from," he said. A correction of labor-market imbalances is needed to bring inflation back down to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and that typically looks like a mild recession, Gapen told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday. "The bank stress situation is in stasis – it's not getting a lot better, but it's not getting materially worse. Underneath that, the employment and other spending data show an economy that's generally resilient," he said.

Persons: of America's Michael Gapen, —, Michael Gapen, Gapen, it's Organizations: of America's, Service, Bank of, Yahoo Finance

☆ What happens next with debt deal? Wall Street economists gauge the odds on passage from here
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

An agreement on the United States' debt ceiling doesn't necessarily mean a smooth path to President Joe Biden's desk. Several Wall Street economists agree the deal will likely get signed, but not without some bumps along the way. House Committee on Rules meeting Before the legislation reaches the House for a vote, it must go through the 13-member House Committee on Rules — nine Republicans and four Democrats. "If all three vote against and no Democrat votes in favor, the bill will fail," Hatzius wrote in a Monday note. Tight House vote It's expected to be a tight vote in the House.

☆ Initial jobless claims increase for fourth consecutive week
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Minneapolis CNN —The number of first-time claims for weekly jobless benefits fell last week to 242,000, down 22,000 from 264,000 the week before, according to data published Thursday by the Department of Labor. Continuing claims, which are filed by people who have received jobless benefits for more than one week, dipped to 1.799 million for the week ended May 6 from a revised 1.807 million the week prior. The outsized influence of Massachusetts’ claims was an anomaly, BofA economists wrote, noting that the state’s total employment accounts for under 3% of overall US employment, and its initial jobless claims are typically under 3% of all weekly US claims. When excluding and recalculating filings in Massachusetts, initial claims have instead moved “sideways,” pointing to limited layoffs, economists Stephen Juneau and Michael Gapen wrote. Weekly jobless claims remain below historical averages: In the decade before the pandemic, weekly claims averaged 311,000.

"Put simply, inflation is more than double the Fed's target rate and the unemployment rate is below every FOMC participant's estimate of the natural rate. "In our view, rather than lean against a mild recession, the Fed would view it as an acceptable price for bringing inflation back down to target." A slight majority, 22 of 41 respondents, said the risk of a default was higher this time compared to prior episodes of debt ceiling brinkmanship. Elevated worries about a default will push U.S. Treasury yields higher over the coming weeks, a separate Reuters poll showed. The macroeconomic consequences of a short default would be somewhat more severe."

☆ 'Welcome to the recession:' Most of Wall Street still sees trouble ahead for the U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In fact, excluding the drag from inventories, GDP growth actually would have been closer to 3.4%, well above trend. However, most economists and strategists on Wall Street think the U.S. economy is still on the path to recession. We continue to expect the drag from higher interest rates and tightening credit conditions to push the economy into a mild recession soon." Jim Baird, chief investment officer, Plante Moran Financial Advisors "For all the discussion of recession risk – which is very real – consumers remain willing and able to spend. Recession risks remain elevated; the first estimate of Q1 GDP confirms that the economy continues to slow.

☆ EUROPE All aboard the tech hype train as earnings rumble in
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It's been a subdued start to a busy week studded with tech earnings and major data from both sides of the Atlantic. Analysts at Wedbush Securities are tipping upside surprises from the tech majors, with an accent on cost cutting and job shedding across the industry. Another risk bubbling away in the background is the U.S. debt ceiling with the House set to vote on the Republican plan to extend the debt limit in exchange for spending cuts. The cost of insuring exposure to U.S. sovereign debt rose to the highest level since 2011 last week. One-year CDS have climbed to around 100 bps, well above the 82 bps seen during the 2011 U.S. sovereign debt downgrade.

Nearly 90% - 94 of 105 - of the economists who participated in the latest Reuters poll, predicted the U.S. central bank would hike its key policy rate by 25 basis points to the 5.00%-5.25% range at a May 2-3 meeting, in line with market pricing. Beyond that, 59 of 100 economists expected the Fed to keep its policy rate unchanged through at least this year. Only 26 respondents with an end-2023 view forecast a cut, similar to market expectations. "We maintain the first rate cut in March 2024. In an exclusive interview with Reuters this week, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard called for a much higher peak policy rate than currently expected, as inflation remains stubbornly high.

☆ Analysis: End of central bank rate hikes now firmly on the horizon
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all raised rates as expected in the last week, but each of them signalled caution about their next move, leaving investors unsure where borrowing costs are going. Central banks have also been quick. This is lightning-fast by central banking standards and ECB's Knot said policymakers needed to have a deeper look at how it is affecting lenders. Combined, these factors suggest that big central banks are nearly done, and that upcoming rate moves may be their last. If so, our view is that it could indeed substitute for further rate hikes," Michael Gapen at Bank of America said.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Janet Yellen's guarantee to banks comes with a catch
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But investor confidence is currently so low that any reassuring comment, vague as it might sound, will sound like a promise. Tomorrow, we'll hear from the Federal Reserve and find out whether it's hiking interest rates even amid the turmoil in banks. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Regional banks popped — but can the rally last?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Stocks, bond yields fall as Fed, with eye on inflation, signals pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Koh Gui Qing | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Markets initially interpreted the omission as a sign that rates might be peaking, and drove Treasury yields to session lows after the Fed's statement was released. The two-year yield , which falls with traders' expectations of a less hawkish Fed, fell to 3.9597% from Tuesday's close of 4.177%. Data also showed British inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% in February, lifting expectations for a quarter point rate hike at Thursday's Bank of England meeting, boosting sterling. German two-year yields overnight recorded the biggest daily jump since 2008 as markets went back to pricing in more ECB hikes. The dollar index fell on the Fed's dovish note, shedding 0.62%, and a softer dollar lifted the yen to 131.39 .

☆ The Fed is likely to hike rates by a quarter point but it must also reassure it can contain a banking crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Investors will be looking for assurances from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank can contain the banking problems. Expectations for Fed rate hikes also moved dramatically: What was expected to be a half-point hike two weeks ago is now up for debate at a quarter point or even zero. He said the Fed will not likely say it is going to pause, but its messaging could be interpreted that way. Depending on their [projections], I think the market will think this is the final hike." Swonk also expects the Fed to withhold its so-called dot plot, the chart on which it shows anonymous forecasts from Fed officials on the path for interest rates.

☆ BofA's Michael Gapen expects a 'dovish 25 bps hike' and maintained balance sheet runoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBofA's Michael Gapen expects a 'dovish 25 bps hike' and maintained balance sheet runoffMichael Gapen, Bank of America Research head of U.S. economist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's next move.

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