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In theory, that should be welcome news for stocks and other so-called risk assets, which wilted under the barrage of hikes last year. Yet some investors worry this year's 6.5% rebound in the S&P 500 has made equities expensive. Many are also wary that the Fed's rate hikes may precipitate a recession later this year. Stocks fell on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 ending down 0.7%, after the Fed's latest policy decision in which the central bank also raised rates by 25 basis points, as markets expected. Friday's U.S. employment report and next week's consumer price index data may give investors a sense of how deeply the Fed's rate hikes have seeped into the economy.
In theory, that should be welcome news for stocks and other so-called risk assets, which wilted under the barrage of hikes last year. Yet some investors worry this year's 6.5% rebound in the S&P 500 has made equities expensive. Many are also wary that the Fed's rate hikes may precipitate a recession later this year. Stocks fell on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 ending down 0.7%, after the Fed's latest policy decision in which the central bank also raised rates by 25 basis points, as markets expected. Friday's U.S. employment report and next week's consumer price index data may give investors a sense of how deeply the Fed's rate hikes have seeped into the economy.
"The updated language in the policy statement does suggest the bar is going to be quite high for further rate hikes. The dollar, which was down ahead of the Fed's statement, deepened its losses in volatile trading on the prospect of a rate hiking pause. U.S. Treasury yields edged lower after the Fed's signal that it could keep rates unchanged at the next few meetings. Benchmark 10-year note yields were down 3.6 basis points to 3.403%, from 3.439% late on Tuesday. The 30-year bond yield was last down 1.9 basis points to 3.7128% while the 2-year note yield was last was down 3.9 basis points to 3.9407%, from 3.98%.
[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 3, 2023. While the dollar index fell, long-term U.S. Treasury yields drifted lower while yields on shorter-dated bills ticked up, as investors positioned themselves before the end of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.29% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.12%. The dollar fell ahead of the Fed statement indicating bets that it make indicate a pause in the hiking cycle, which could lead to further dollar declines. The dollar index fell 0.461%, with the euro up 0.5% to $1.1054.
Cryptocurrencies fell on Monday as investors put excitement from Ethereum's "Shapella" upgrade behind them and refocused on upcoming bank earnings and recession concerns. Bitcoin fell 3% to $29,515.35, according to Coin Metrics, falling below the key $30,000 it hit last week for the first time since June. Crypto is coming off a winning week in which prices were boosted by optimism around Ethereum's latest tech upgrade, dubbed "Shapella" (also known as "Shanghai"). Crypto investors are watching bank earnings this week for more insight about the health of the sector and possibility of a coming recession. For this week, any downside potential "should not be severe" or keep bitcoin from continuing on its uptrend, Hasegawa said.
CNBC Daily Open: Reality settles in
  + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The 10-year Treasury yield also fell to its lowest since mid-September, and its spread with the 3-month Treasury yield maintained wide levels. And we'll see what European leaders have to say as they visit Beijing to denounce Russia's invasion, following Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
CNBC Daily Open: Reality sinks in
  + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Such a yield-curve inversion is seen by many on Wall Street as a signal that a recession is near. And we'll see what European leaders have to say as they visit Beijing to denounce Russia's invasion, following Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
April 6 (Reuters) - There will be no Asia Morning Bid on Friday, April 7. Chinese services PMI and Australian trade figures are also on the docket Thursday, while remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe on could shed further light on the RBA's outlook following Tuesday's policy decision. chartIt's a difficult one to call, and after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish surprise on Wednesday, investors would do well to be humble in their predictions. Wall Street is finally buckling, rates markets are now gunning for almost 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year and the dollar is sagging. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
The underlying trend though for the dollar remained tilted to the downside and Wednesday's U.S. private sector jobs numbers affirmed that. The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March, suggesting a cooling labor market. Private employment increased by 145,000 jobs last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 200,000. Another report on Wednesday also indicated continued economic weakness, this time in the services sector.
The kiwi rallied 1% to touch a two-month high of $0.6383 after the decision. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six peers, eased to a fresh two-month low of 101.43, after dropping 0.5% overnight. Markets were pricing in a 43% chance of Fed not raising interest rates a day earlier. "And the Fed may have to perhaps do more and keep rates high for longer." The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 1.3 basis points to 3.350%, having slipped 9 basis points overnight.
Gold prices dip as bank angst recedes
  + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SummarySummary Companies Gold down for second sessionGold could decline to $1,920/oz - analystVolumes in SPDR Gold Shares highest since OctMarch 30 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged lower on Thursday as easing concerns about the global banking system fed risk appetite and curbed some safe-haven bullion bids. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,960.52 per ounce, as of 0346 GMT, falling for a second session. Volumes in SPDR Gold Shares, the largest gold-backed ETF, have surged to their highest level since October," they said. The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold rises when interest rates are increased to bring down inflation. Markets see a 43.2% chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The rescue package came shortly after embattled Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) tapped an emergency central bank loan of up to $54 billion to shore up its liquidity. The ECB supervisors saw no contagion to euro zone banks from the market turmoil, a source familiar with the content of the meeting told Reuters, adding that supervisors were told deposits remained stable across euro zone banks and exposure to Credit Suisse was immaterial. "I don't think we are in the crux of a global financial crisis. The ECB pressed forward with its 50 basis point rate hike, arguing that euro zone banks were in good shape and that if anything, higher rates should bolster their margins. Japan's finance ministry, financial regulator and central bank said they would meet on Friday to discuss developments.
Some also worry that the Fed's messaging is becoming erratic as it reacts to successively weak then strong economic data. BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, was among the slew of big Wall Street names raising their views for how high policy rates could go, with a forecast of 6%. Reuters GraphicsFor some investors, a return to 50 and 75 basis point rate increases may be a bridge too far. "Investors fear the Fed is going to overdo it," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. A spate of hotter than expected data would soon show that the economy was stronger than the Fed had expected.
Higher rates benefit the dollar by improving its yield and as traders look for safety while global stockmarkets drop. The dollar hit a two-month high against the euro of $1.0524 , extending Tuesday's 1.2% jump. The Australian dollar has weakened for a similar reason as the Reserve Bank of Australia has softened its tone. Having dropped over 2% on Tuesday, the Australian dollar weakened a bit more to hit a four-month low of $0.6568 on Wednesday. China's yuan finished the domestic session at 6.9706 per dollar, the weakest such close since Dec. 29, 2022.
Higher rates benefit the dollar by improving its yield and as traders look for safety while global stockmarkets drop. The dollar hit a two-month high of $1.0528 to the euro , extending Tuesday's 1.2% jump. The Australian dollar has weakened for a similar reason as the Reserve Bank of Australia has softened its tone. Futures imply U.S. rates peaking above 5.6% and holding higher than 5.5% through 2023. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.2% in Asia trade to a more than three-month high of 105.86.
The hawkish comments from Powell sent U.S. stocks sharply lower, with the risk-off mood continuing in Asian trade. Eurostoxx 50 futures were down 0.19%, German DAX futures fell 0.27% and FTSE futures were down 0.27%. After a series of jumbo hikes last year, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in its last two meetings. "Powell has essentially opened the door to 50 basis point hike," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. Citi strategists said even as-expected payrolls and inflation data could keep the chance of a 50 basis point hike high.
Asian stocks tumble after hawkish Powell comments
  + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
SINGAPORE, March 8 (Reuters) - Asian shares fell sharply on Wednesday, while the dollar advanced after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell raised the possibility of the U.S. central bank returning to large rate hikes to tackle sticky inflation. The Fed will likely need to raise interest rates more than expected in response to recent strong data, Powell said on the first day of his semi-annual, two-day monetary policy testimony before Congress. The hawkish comments from Powell sent U.S. stocks sharply lower, with the risk-off mood continuing in Asian trade. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 1.45% lower, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) fell 0.70%. "Powell has essentially opened the door to 50 basis point hike," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
Powell pushes dollar to three-month high
  + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
SINGAPORE, March 8 (Reuters) - The dollar was riding high on Wednesday, flung to three-month peaks when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell surprised investors by warning that interest rates might need to go up faster and higher than expected to rein in inflation. Overnight it had shot more than 1.2% higher on the euro, its biggest one-day move in five months. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, jumped 1.3% overnight to a three-month peak of 105.65. The blockbuster week of central bank meetings and speakers rolls on later in the day, with the Bank of Canada setting policy and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaking. "If they don't hike, the Canadian dollar will likely fall into a bucket of currencies where the central bank is unwilling to keep up with the Fed."
MUMBAI, March 8 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee weakened on Wednesday, as a hawkish tone by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell stoked concerns about interest rates being hiked by 50 basis points (bps) again as soon as this month. Resuming trade after a one-day holiday, the rupee fell to 82.1275 per dollar by 10:34 a.m. IST compared with its previous close of 81.91. Powell, in a speech to lawmakers overnight, said recent stronger-than-expected economic data in the United States suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates could be higher than previously anticipated. "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes." These were Powell's first comments following the higher-than-expected U.S. January jobs and inflation data that had led markets to expect around three more 25-bps hikes.
March 7 (Reuters) - Traders of futures tied to the Federal Reserve's policy rate were pricing in a half-percentage-point hike in interest rates at the U.S. central bank's March 21-22 policy meeting after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that continued strong inflation data could require tougher measures. That was up from the 30% chance seen before Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Futures briefly showed more than a 50% chance of a 50-basis-point (bp) hike immediately after Powell's remarks. The futures contracts pricing also points to firming expectations for the policy rate to rise to a 5.25%-5.50% range by June. Powell's testimony on Tuesday marked a stark acknowledgement that a "disinflationary process" he spoke of repeatedly in a Feb. 1 news conference may not be so smooth.
The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six rivals, made a brief breach of Monday's one-month highs, and was last trading at 103.52, roughly flat on the day. Sterling was last 0.1% higher against the dollar at $1.20275, after tumbling to a one-month low of $1.2006 in the previous session. In Asia, the Japanese yen attempted to make back Monday's losses, with the dollar-yen pair down 0.6% at $131.78, moving away from Monday's one-month low of 132.90 per dollar. A newspaper report on Monday said Japan's government has sounded out Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya to succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda as central bank governor. Reporting by Rae Wee and Susan Mathew; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Kenneth Maxwell and Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Morning Bid: Bursting bubbles
  + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Alun John. China's yuan hit a four-week low in both on and offshore markets Monday , and Chinese stocks sold off. The offshore yuan was last at 6.784 per dollar, having firmed from the 6.832 per dollar it hit in early trade. ING say a move into the 6.85-6.9 range would show investors are including more negative trade implications in their thinking. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Gold bars are displayed at a bullion merchant's, Baird & Co., in London, U.K., on Friday, March 14, 2008. LONDON — Gold traded near an 8-month high Tuesday as the precious metal's strong start to 2023 continued, buoyed by lower yields and a weaker dollar. Hansen said focus this week will be on Thursday's U.S. CPI inflation print, and placed the "next major hurdle" for gold at $1,896/oz. "I think as you look forward, you start to look around and think 'where is the safest place for your investment in terms of assets?' and the only place really to go as an alternative now is gold, in terms of knowing that you are not going to see that debasement of your assets," Neuhauser told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe."
Morning Bid: Seeing through another shock
  + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Brazil's weekend political shock reminds world markets of fragile geopolitics, but investors more broadly appear happier to stick with a new year narrative of recovery from a dire 2022. Days after his inauguration, leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva announced a federal security intervention in Brasilia until Jan. 31. Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks on Tuesday but the big data release of this week is Thursday's consumer price report. The gap between positive euro zone economic surprise indices and negative U.S. equivalents is now at its widest since June. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Morning Bid: Minutes come, minutes go
  + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Now, how fast that recovery will be is something that remains to be seen, especially with rising infections taking a toll. Market focus will switch to Friday's U.S. payrolls data but before that a clutch of European data could provide more clues as to where inflation is headed in Europe. French inflation, which unexpectedly dropped below 7%, added to the hope that the worst of the cost-of-living crisis in Europe is over. Over in the corporate world, the tech industry's layoffs, which amounted to more than 150,000 workers in 2022, don't seem to end. Salesforce Inc (CRM.N) says it plans to eliminate about 10% of staff, while Amazon.com (AMZN.O) will cut more than 18,000 jobs.
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