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The strong consumer spending propping up the US economy may not last, a Bloomberg survey found. Over half of the respondents said they think US personal consumption will shrink in early 2024. High interest rates and a drawdown of pandemic-era savings could hit consumer spending. Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the US economy, any changes in the measure are a big deal. AdvertisementAdvertisementMeanwhile, JP Morgan predicted in an August 17 note that the stock market is set to fall as US consumer spending softens.
Persons: Jim Chanos, Anna Wong, James Knightley, David Rosenberg, JP Morgan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Wall, Bloomberg Economics, ING, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
"We've been spending money like drunken sailors around the world, this war in Ukraine is still going on," he said. Dimon joins a chorus of recent voices warning over the strong US economy powered by consumer spending. "We've been spending money like drunken sailors around the world, this war in Ukraine is still going on. Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the US economy, any changes to the measure are a big deal. AdvertisementAdvertisementAfter all, the resilience of the US consumer has kept the economy going even amid the Federal Reserve's relentless rate hike cycle since March last year.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, We've, Dimon, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Bloomberg, Wall, JPMorgan Locations: Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Spending by the ever-reliable US consumer is about to fizzle out, according to a Bloomberg investor survey. Such resilience has staved off widespread recession fears, but as household savings run out, the fortunes of the US economy could reverse. AdvertisementAdvertisementIndeed, excess savings accumulated since the pandemic are poised to evaporate by as early as the end of September, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has said. "We still have very high prices, but we don't have all of that funny money around anymore, and the excess savings are going negative." The famed investor says the drying up of consumer savings is set to hammer corporate profits as spending declines.
Persons: , Jeffrey Gundlach, Michael Burry Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Billionaire, DoubleLine, Fox Business Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
New York CNN —Azher Abbasi, head of supervision at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco — and a key official with direct oversight over failed Silicon Valley Bank — will retire at the end of October, the regional reserve bank announced this week. Abbasi and Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, came under scrutiny after a post-mortem report undertaken by the Federal Reserve found problems with how SVB was supervised. The San Francisco Fed declined to share additional details with CNN about Abbasi’s departure. Outside of the report, there have been concerns about potential conflicts of interest regarding Greg Becker, the former CEO of SVB, serving as a director on the San Francisco Fed board, potentially having a say over how SVB was supervised. Willardson previously worked at the Minneapolis Fed in a variety of positions from 1990 to 2022, including as senior vice president for supervision, regulation and credit for eight years.
Persons: New York CNN — Azher Abbasi, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco —, Abbasi, Mary Daly, SVB, San Francisco Fed, Greg Becker, Niel Willardson, Willardson Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of San, San Francisco, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Deposit Insurance Corporation Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco Fed, midsized
San Francisco Fed's chief of supervision to retire
  + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
A pedestrian walks near the branch of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, in Salt Lake City, Utah, U.S., April 7, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir Acquire Licensing RightsAug 28 (Reuters) - Azher Abbasi, head of supervision at the San Francisco Federal Reserve, will retire at the end of October, the bank's spokesperson said on Monday. Abbasi will be succeeded by Niel Willardson, who will join the San Francisco Fed as interim executive vice president of supervision and credit, the spokesperson said via email. Abbasi joined the San Francisco Fed in 2015. Reporting by Evelyn Nikhila S in Bengaluru Editing by Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Ann Saphir, Azher Abbasi, Abbasi, Niel Willardson, Willardson, Evelyn Nikhila, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of San, REUTERS, San Francisco Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Salt Lake City , Utah, U.S, Bengaluru
Americans are burning through their savings and could run out funds as early as this quarter, a Fed study showed. As of June, Fed estimates show US households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings. With excess savings dwindling, Americans have leaned on their credit cards for spending. Excess savings refer to the difference between actual savings and the pre-recession trend, Fed researchers said. As of June, Fed estimates show that US households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings.
Persons: Hamza Abdelrahman, Luiz Oliveira, Abdelrahman, Oliveira Organizations: Service, Privacy, Federal Reserve Bank of San, San Francisco Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Washington, DC CNN —Federal Reserve officials were wary that inflation would slow further unless the US economy and labor markets also cool down, according to minutes from their July policy meeting released on Wednesday. There have only been two meetings in which Fed officials dissented with a decision since the central bank began lifting rates in March 2022. “Inflation is still significantly above” the Fed’s 2% target, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said earlier this month. The surprising economic strength this summer raised optimism among investors and Fed officials that the US economy can avoid a recession or a sharp uptick in unemployment as inflation continues to slow. Fed economists are in fact no longer projecting a recession, according to the minutes, which Fed Chair Jerome Powell divulged in his post-meeting news conference last month.
Persons: It’s, , Michelle Bowman, dovish, Patrick Harker, , Quincy Krosby, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN — Federal Reserve, Fed, Philadelphia Fed, LPL, Commerce Department, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Washington, June’s, Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
David Rosenberg took a jab at billionaire investor Bill Ackman for his bet against US Treasurys. His view contrasts to Ackman who revealed he's shorting 30-year US Treasurys as a hedge against high inflation. That contrasts to Ackman's view of stubbornly high inflation, which has led him to short US Treasurys. Bond prices tend to have an inverse relationship to interest rates. When interest rates go up, bonds usually fall.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Bill Ackman, Ackman, he's, Rosenberg, Fran Fed's Organizations: US, Service, Rosenberg Research, Reserve, Ackman's, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Federal Reserve, Pershing, stoke Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Washington, DC CNN —Americans became slightly less optimistic about the economy this month, following two straight months of growing confidence. Sentiment had been on an upswing throughout the summer, mostly due to slower inflation, and is well above the record lows reached this time last year. Signs of cooling inflationGas prices, which are highly visible indicators of inflation for consumers, have risen in recent weeks, which could weigh on sentiment in the future. Still, consumers face the resumption of student loan payments later this year, and that could weigh on household budgets. US consumers opened up their wallets this summer, with many flocking to the smash-hit “Barbie” movie, attending concerts by Taylor Swift or Beyoncé, or traveling abroad.
Persons: , , Joanne Hsu, Ryan Sweet, bode, Kieran Clancy, Barbie, Taylor Swift Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan, University of Michigan’s, University, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Pantheon, Consumer, Commerce Department, Federal, Atlanta Locations: Washington, June’s, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Michigan
After steadily increasing, year-over-year shelter inflation has moved down for four consecutive months, from 8.2% in March to 7.7% in July. “Our baseline forecast suggests that year-over-year shelter inflation will continue to slow through late 2024 and may even turn negative by mid-2024,” the researchers wrote. Total inflation will go down when shelter inflation dropsCurrently, there is a disconnect between shelter inflation, which has remained higher, and other components of inflation that have fallen. For renters, shelter inflation includes rent and utility payments. The researchers at the San Francisco Fed crafted models combining several measures of local shelter and rent inflation to help explain how recent trends might affect the path of future shelter inflation.
Persons: San Francisco Fed, , Organizations: DC CNN, Index, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco . Housing, Housing, Federal, San Francisco, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco .
After a year of monthly declines, the year-over-year inflation rate has risen from 3% to 3.2%, still well above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, according to the Labor Bureau's latest consumer index report. Moderating prices for houses and rent are expected to help lower core inflation in future CPI reports, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. To get a better sense of where inflation is headed, the Federal Reserve looks to core inflation, which measures the price of all goods and services excluding volatile food and energy prices. Core inflation continued to cool by 0.2%, as it did in June, after six months of increases closer to 0.4%. In June, Fed chair Jerome Powell said that he didn't anticipate core inflation returning to the central bank's 2% target until 2025.
Persons: Kurt Rankin, Rankin, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor, PNC Financial Services, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Morning Bid: A sticky inflation situation
  + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
With a relentless set of rate hikes, the Federal Reserve has managed to drive consumer price increases down to 3%, from last June's 9.1%. The Atlanta Fed compiles an index of core sticky consumer prices - goods or services for which the cost changes far more slowly. Reuters GraphicsLine chart with data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve shows PCE inflation slowed to 3% year-on-year in June, while core PCE inflation also eased to 4.2%. Chart shows economists polled by Reuters expecting the U.S. consumer price index to have increased 0.2% in July 2023 from the previous month, the same pace as June 2023. * Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks at a webinar, 1500 EDT/1900 GMT.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Amanda Cooper, they're, Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, American Automobile Association, Federal Reserve Bank, Cleveland, Atlanta Fed, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Yahoo Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Manheim
Interest rates are higher and so are prices, credit is drying up and there are signs that the labor market is finally softening. The problem is that no one, not even the Federal Reserve, knows how much longer the American consumer can keep on spending. Personal saving rates soared as a result, with US households amassing about $2.3 trillion in savings in 2020 and through the summer of 2021, according to Federal Reserve economists. Economists know that savings must be dissipating, but haven’t quite figured out just how much of that money is left. Just a few weeks later, economists at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington said just the opposite.
Persons: New York CNN — There’s, we’ve, , Torsten Slok, Lydia Boussour, Hanna Ziady, Xiaofei Xu, Beijing’s, Laura He, Wei Jianguo, Funflation, Beyflation — Taylor Swift, Fisher, don’t Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Governors, Apollo Global Management, Consumer, Reuters, China Daily, Fisher Investments, National Statistics Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Washington, United States, EY, Boussour, China, Beijing, Japan, Italy, Netherlands, Swiftflation
As the economy proved more resilient than expected, and the US has avoided recession so far, the case for a 2023 recession has been crumbling. The stock market, which entered bull market territory just a few weeks ago, has shown little sign this year that the economy could be headed for a downturn. Still, the bond market tells a different story: The New York Federal Reserve’s recession probability model calculates the probability that the US will enter a recession in the next 12 months by tracking the spread of 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields. US stock market closes early at 1 p.m. Tuesday: US stock market closed for July Fourth.
Persons: Brian Moynihan, “ We’re, , David Grecsek, Jerome Powell, it’s, “ we’re, Russell, Outflows, Brian Mulberry, Tim Courtney, Courtney ., , Niño, Samantha Delouya, El Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, CNN, Vanguard, JPMorgan Chase, Investors, Fed, Investment Company Institute, Zacks Investment Management, New, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Exencial Wealth, Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, PMI, Labor Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, El
Some anticipate the Fed will raise rates again in July in an attempt to bring inflation down to the 2% target. Even if the Fed forgoes a rate increase on Wednesday, Fed officials have suggested the Fed may hike rates again at later meetings. The survey also found people's expectations of job loss fell 1.3 percentage points to 10.9%, suggesting rising job market strength. "I do not think that wages are the principal driver of inflation," Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the Fed's May policy meeting. "For instance, recent evidence shows that wage growth tends to follow inflation, as well as expectations of future inflation."
Persons: , it's, Jerome Powell, Adam Shapiro, Shapiro Organizations: Federal, Service, Committee, Fed, payrolls, Labor Statistics, Labor, Index, BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of San, National Federation of Independent Business Locations: Ukraine, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
LONDON, June 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Pandemic-era lockdowns and government stimulus have left euro zone citizens with 1 trillion euros in extra savings. That will leave consumer goods giants like $445 billion LVMH (LVMH.PA) downcast, but the European Central Bank pretty pleased. Euro zone citizens put as much as 1 trillion euros – or 8% of GDP – in their piggy banks since the health emergency, according to Oxford Economics’ estimates. Finally, euro zone savers have been favouring the higher returns offered by illiquid assets instead of sticking with easily accessible cash. These investments account for 33% of euro zone citizens’ total financial assets, compared to 30% before the pandemic.
Persons: can’t, , lockdowns, Christine Lagarde, George Hay, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, White House, , Federal Reserve Bank of San, San Francisco Fed, Walmart, United Airlines, American Airlines, U.S, U.S . Federal, Allianz, BMW, stingy, Thomson Locations: U.S, Ukraine, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, U.S ., Europe, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, That’s, Asia
Inflation has cooled in the past several months, according to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the Consumer Price Index, though some Fed officials have said that it’s not cooling fast enough. Indeed, the labor market remains on strong footing. “Overheating in the labor market has played a minor role but an increasing one over time. Overall inflation crept up throughout that year, then the Fed began to raise interest rates in March 2022 from near zero. Despite the failures of three regional banks since March, the Fed still raised interest rates two more times during that period.
Persons: Ben Bernanke, ” Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Blanchard, they’re, Mary Daly, ” Daly, isn’t Organizations: DC CNN, Former Federal, Fed, International Monetary Fund, Brookings Institution, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Washington, Washington ,, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has drawn attention to the relationship between the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, which was in charge of overseeing safety and soundness at the lender, and the bank’s former chief executive, Greg Becker, who for years sat on the San Francisco Fed’s board of directors. The bank’s collapse on March 10 has prompted criticism of the Fed, whose bank supervisors were slow to spot and stop problems before Silicon Valley Bank experienced a devastating run that necessitated a sweeping government response. Mr. Becker’s position on the San Francisco Fed board would have given him little formal power, according to current and former Fed employees and officials. The Fed’s 12 reserve banks — semiprivate institutions dotted across the country — each has a nine-person board of directors, three of whom come from the banking industry. Those boards have no say in bank supervision, and serve mainly as advisers for the Fed bank’s leadership.
May 15 (Reuters) - Greg Becker, the former chief executive officer of Silicon Valley Bank, is set to appear before the U.S. Congress on Tuesday, two months after the collapse of his bank sparked panic among bank customers and investors, forcing the government to backstop deposits. California banking regulators moved quickly to shut down Silicon Valley Bank on March 10 after depositors withdrew $42 billion in 24 hours. Becker will testify before the Senate Banking Committee alongside Scott Shay and Eric Howell, the former chair and president, respectively, of Signature Bank. When his manager left to work for Silicon Valley Bank, Becker followed, he said on a 2021 Bloomberg podcast. Before becoming president and CEO of SVB Financial Group, Becker co-founded SVB Capital, the company's investment arm.
California banking regulator says SVB oversight inadequate
  + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Regulators have since pledged tougher oversight of the banking sector while lawmakers have also complained that officials were too slow to address its poor risk management. Former SVB chief executive Gregory Becker is due to testify before Congress next week. According to the report released Monday, DFPI played a supporting role, with primary oversight for SVB conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, which could devote more staff to supervision. SVB "was slow to remediate regulator-identified deficiencies, and regulators did not take adequate steps to ensure SVB resolved problems as fast as possible," according to the report. In just one eight-hour period on March 9, SVB depositors submitted withdrawal requests amounting to about $42 billion.
Help Still Wanted: Fewer Job Openings Won’t Faze the Fed
  + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Justin Lahart | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Fed policy makers have been arguing that a drop in the number of job vacancies could effectively cool off the job market. Photo: Jeff Chiu/Associated PressThere was a big debate among economists and U.S. policy makers last year over whether job openings could come down without tanking the job market. Well, job openings are down and the job market is still strong, but the debate is hardly resolved. Newsletter Sign-up Markets P.M. Agenda-setting analysis and commentary on the biggest corporate and market stories from our Heard on the Street team. Data on job openings from the Labor Department and, before December 2000, from a series constructed by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economist Regis Barnichon that goes back to 1951, shows that there has never been a decline of 20% or more in job openings without a substantial increase in the unemployment rate.
The bank had a large share of deposits above the government’s $250,000 insurance limit. The bank’s leaders also made a big bet on interest rates staying low. That became a problem as the Fed, trying to control rapid inflation, carried out its most aggressive rate increase campaign since the 1980s. The bank held longer-term bonds that dropped in value as interest rates rose, because newer debt issued at the higher rates became more attractive for investors. Was it a problem at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, which supervised the bank, or did the fault rest with the Federal Reserve Board, which has ultimate responsibility for bank oversight?
WASHINGTON, March 30 (Reuters) - The secretive world of Federal Reserve bank supervision has been laid bare by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and critics say it needs an overhaul to make it more nimble, transparent and decisive. Typically, bank supervisors do most of their work behind closed doors. Bank supervision is typically conducted behind closed-doors because of concerns that publicizing bank missteps could spur bank runs and undermine confidence in the overall system. SVB's rapid growth also was a factor for Fed supervisors. Barr said part of his review would look at whether Fed supervision was appropriate for the bank's "rapid growth and vulnerabilities."
US Federal Reserve watchdog launches probe of SVB supervision
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
March 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve's Office of Inspector General (OIG) has launched an independent review of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), an OIG spokesperson said on Tuesday. The review, which was launched on March 14, will assess the board's and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's supervision of the failed lender, the spokesperson told Reuters in a statement. The independent oversight authority plans to complete its investigation within six months, the spokesperson added. The probe was reported earlier by Bloomberg News. Reporting by Rahat Sandhu in Bengaluru and Pete Schroeder; Editing by Leslie Adler and Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
“Executives at SVB and Signature [Bank] took wild risks and must be held accountable for exploding their banks,” Warren said. Republican Senators say the Fed’s focus on climate change led to banking turmoilRepublican Senators repeatedly insinuated on Tuesday that the recent US banking turmoil came as a result of the Federal Reserve’s focus on climate change. In his opening statement, Republican Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, the ranking member of the banking committee, called the Fed’s focus on climate change a waste of time. It’s what our supervisors do all the time.”In an interview with Montana Public Radio in 2014, Daines said that “the jury’s still out” on whether climate change is real. The public reasonably expects supervisors to require that banks understand, and appropriately manage, their material risks, including the financial risks of climate change.”
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