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Investors have been increasingly on edge about the prospect of former President Donald Trump winning the election, a possibility for which Wall Street has been preparing to a greater extent. While polls remain effectively dead-even, Trump’s prospects have grown since the start of this month in political betting markets. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the decline, ending the day down by 1.6%; while the S&P 500 and Dow both fell about 1%. Recent strong economic data has led traders to question whether the central bank might maintain higher rates for longer than anticipated. The current market environment suggests continued volatility ahead, said Torres, warning of the potential for further yield curve steepening and increased market turbulence ahead.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, ” Steven Ricchiuto, Kamala Harris, Dow, , José Torres, McDonald’s, Kelly Ortberg, Torres Organizations: New, New York CNN, Mizuho Securities, Treasury, Nasdaq, Dow, Interactive Brokers, Nvidia, Apple, Boeing, Federal Locations: New York, United States
But they’re growing increasingly anxious about mounting credit card debt. Debt balances have been growing, and US consumers are nervous about whether they’ll be able to keep up: Americans haven’t been this worried about missing a minimum debt payment since April 2020. Outside of the pandemic, that’s the highest delinquency expectation reading seen in the monthly survey since January 2017. “For people with good incomes and good credit scores, things are going well; they’re still able to access plenty of credit and, by and large, paying on time,” he said. Now the other half, that can be a much more troublesome situation when you think about potentially longer-term credit card debt.”Lower-income Americans face higher inflation, research shows.
Persons: they’ll, haven’t, Ted Rossman, it’s, that’s, ” Rossman, Rossman, , they’re, Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, The, Consumer, Fed, Bankrate, , Minneapolis Federal, of Labor Statistics, York Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York, Minneapolis
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Winning week for marketsAll major U.S. indexes rose Friday on the back of encouraging inflation data and positive earnings from big banks. That gave them a winning week. Banks' earnings in good shapeJPMorgan Chase , the biggest bank in the U.S., reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat estimates.
Persons: Tesla's, Tesla, Elon Musk, Musk, of Finance Lan Fo'an, Lan, Banks, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, of Finance, JPMorgan, It's Bank of America Locations: New York, Asia, Pacific, Shanghai, Beijing, China, U.S
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Winning week for marketsAll major U.S. indexes rose Friday on the back of encouraging inflation data and positive earnings from big banks. That gave them a winning week. Banks' earnings in good shapeJPMorgan Chase , the biggest bank in the U.S., reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat estimates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Europe's, Tesla's, Tesla, Elon Musk, Musk, of Finance Lan Fo'an, Lan, Banks, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Organizations: US Federal Reserve, National Association of Business Economics, CNBC, of Finance, JPMorgan, It's Bank of America Locations: Nashville , Tennessee, U.K, China, Beijing, U.S
Fed rate cuts are likely to help push bitcoin and other risk assets higher, but some stablecoin issuers could suffer a hit to their revenue. Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) dominate the market, making up 70% and 21%, respectively, according to CryptoQuant. "As rates begin to fall, that has a giant impact on their [profit and loss] and their bottom line." Stablecoins – cryptocurrencies that promise a fixed value peg to another asset, usually the U.S. dollar – are widely seen as crypto's killer app. Jeremy Allaire, CEO of USDC issuer Circle, told CNBC lower interest rates are "a very good thing" for the company because lower interest rates will likely increase investment and economic activity – which would benefit the company.
Persons: Bernstein, Kevin Lehtiniitty, they're, Wainwright, Kevin Dede, Jeremy Allaire, Allaire Organizations: U.S ., CNBC
As the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, investors should review their bond portfolio, which could see a boost from dovish Fed policy. Typically, bond prices and market interest rates move in opposite directions. While it may be tempting to cling to cash, it will become “less attractive, less productive as interest rates fall,” Ward said. Many corporations leveraged rock-bottom interest rates during the pandemic to strengthen balance sheets and refinance debt, said Ward. As interest rates fall, those longer-maturity bonds should reward investors, experts say.
Persons: , Scott Ward, ” Ward, Ted Jenkin, Ward, , Jenkin Organizations: Federal Reserve, dovish Fed, Fed, Morningstar, Bond, CNBC’s Locations: Birmingham , Alabama, Atlanta,
New York CNN —Hopes for avoiding a recession are growing on Wall Street. Now, investors are looking to the upcoming earnings season for clues about the US economy’s health. The earnings season begins in earnest Friday with quarterly updates from big banks including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and BlackRock. Wall Street will also parse the September Consumer Price Index report and wholesale inflation figures due later this week. Wall Street will also eye developments from the tech companies whose mammoth stock returns have helped power this year’s bull market.
Persons: Motors, , , Sarah Henry, Wells, Mark Malek, Siebert, Dave Sekera Organizations: New, New York CNN, Economic, PepsiCo, Conagra Brands, Logan Capital, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, Tech, , FactSet, Apple, Nvidia, Communication, Morningstar Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, BlackRock
Why a key borrowing rate is above 4% again
  + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
New York CNN —A key borrowing rate for American consumers has jumped to a level not seen in months. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note breached 4% on Monday for the first time since August. The 10-year yield closed at 3.98% on Friday, up from 3.85% on Thursday. The 10-year yield tracks the rate on everything from mortgages to student loans to car loans, leaving consumers looking to borrow for big-ticket purchases with elevated costs. Investors will parse the Consumer Price Index report for September and wholesale inflation figures.
Persons: , Karl Schamotta Organizations: New, New York CNN, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Solutions, Fed Locations: New York
Last month, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point and signaled that more cuts are coming. He hopes interest rate cuts will increase his buying power. Mortgage rates have steadily fallen in anticipation of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Mortgage rates have steadily fallen in anticipation of further interest rate cuts from the Fed, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping to 6.12% in the week ended October 3, according to Freddie Mac. “Even a decent interest rate today far exceeds what we’ve been planning and budgeting on since we bought this home,” said Tony, who said his interest rate was 3.75%.
Persons: Robert Galvez, , Galvez, , ” Galvez, Kamala Harris ’, homebuyers, Brandon Bell, Tony, Freddie Mac, it’s, Safiya Reid, Nico Williams, Reid, Nico Williams “ I’m, ” Reid, she’s Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, Federal Housing Administration, NACA Locations: New Hampshire, Atlanta, Okinawa, Japan
What a hot job market means for inflation
  + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
New York CNN —The US job market is still piping hot. That comes after the Federal Reserve last month cut interest rates by a jumbo half-point, signaling that it is turning its attention from tamping down inflation to keeping the job market steady. But some warn that a still-strong labor market could make it more difficult for inflation to continue cooling. That’s because a low unemployment rate and hot job market underline a strong American consumer, whose spending helps drive up the cost of goods and services. Consumer inflation eased to its slowest annual pace since February 2021 in August, continuing a trend of cooling down in recent months.
Persons: FactSet, , Seema Shah, , Gina Bolvin Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Investors, , Fed, Asset Management, Labor Statistics, Bolvin Wealth Management Group, International Longshoremen’s Association, United States Maritime Alliance Locations: New York, July’s, Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine
“Did the Fed even need to cut rates in September, let alone cut by 50bps (basis points)?” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote in a note on Friday. Second-guessing the Fed isn’t new, of course. Central bank officials themselves note the uncertainty inherent in their work, especially when the economy reaches inflection points. Even Fed officials don’t always agree with the central bank’s actions, such as Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, the lone dissenter to the Fed’s decision to cut rates by half a point in September. ‘This isn’t exact science’Fed officials aren’t shy about admitting that they don’t always have confidence in how the US economy will evolve.
Persons: Washington CNN —, Jerome Powell, Philipp Carlsson, Seema Shah, James Knightley, Powell, don’t, Michelle Bowman, wouldn’t, , ” Carlsson, Szlezak, , ” Gina Bolvin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Boston Consulting, Asset Management, ING, Bolvin Wealth Management Locations: Wall, Washington
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference on September 18 in Washington, DC. Anna Moneymaker/Getty ImagesThe Federal Reserve’s recent half-point cut will take some time to work through the system, Noah Yosif, chief economist and head of research at the American Staffing Association, told CNN. “Just because the Federal Reserve votes to decrease interest rates in September does not mean that employers are going to see lower costs in October,” he said, adding that it could take three to six months to filter through to businesses. More rate cuts are expected for later this year, but the extent will depend on the health of the labor market, and that outlook could be quite murky due to impact from the strikes and Hurricane Helene. Fed officials, who are scheduled to make the central bank’s next interest rate decision just days after the October jobs report lands, will do their best to look through the noise and what are likely idiosyncratic factors, said Ryan Sweet at Oxford Economics.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Anna Moneymaker, Noah Yosif, , , Helene, Ryan Sweet, Ejindu Ume Organizations: American Staffing Association, CNN, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Miami University in Locations: Washington , DC, Miami University in Ohio
CNN —US job growth surged in September, blowing past expectations and providing solid reassurance for the ongoing stability of the labor market. Employers added an estimated 254,000 jobs in September, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. “The outlook for the economy in the months ahead is quite favorable, according to the September jobs report. As job gains dropped off from their once breakneck pace, economists were quick to note that the labor market was merely slowing and not at risk of imminent collapse. “The labor market is strong,” she said.
Persons: , ” Brian Bethune, , Chris Rupkey, , Elise Gould, Gould, Jerome Powell, September’s, it’s, ” Bethune, , , Josh Hirt, ” Hirt, they’ve Organizations: CNN, Employers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Boston College, Service, Federal Reserve, FwdBonds, Economic Policy Institute, Federal, Vanguard, Boeing
CNN —September’s jobs report, due out Friday morning, is expected to show that the US labor market has slowed somewhat but remains on solid footing. While September’s employment data is expected to stay relatively tame, the same can’t be said for the October jobs report, which is set to be released on November 1, just days before the presidential election. The strikes and hurricane-related effects “are not going to permanently alter the trajectory of the labor market; but September is probably our last clean reading on the labor market for a while,” Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, told CNN earlier this week. The August jobs report, which showed better-than-expected estimated 142,000 payroll gains and a drop in the unemployment rate, went a long way to quell those fears. It showed that the jobs market is in “stasis,” Wells Fargo economists wrote in a note issued Tuesday.
Persons: bode, Lydia Boussour, ” Ryan Sweet, Helene, , Erica Groshen, They’ve, , Andrew Challenger, Wells, Noah Yosif, ’ Sweet, Ejindu Ume, “ We’re, ” Ume Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Boeing, Gulf Coasts, Oxford Economics, of Labor Statistics, Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Employers, Challenger, Labor Department, Pantheon, Labor, BLS, , American Staffing Association, Oxford, Miami University in Locations: EY, Hurricane, East, Gulf, Miami University in Ohio
But we are not on any preset course,” he told the National Association for Business Economics in prepared remarks. A basis point equals 0.01%. “We do not believe that we need to see further cooling in labor market conditions to achieve 2 percent inflation,” Powell added. For his part, Powell expressed confidence in economic strength and sees inflation continuing to cool. Broader economic conditions also set the table for further disinflation.”Following the speech, Powell was scheduled to sit for a question-and-answer session with Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , ” Powell, Powell, , Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, Committee, Fed Locations: Nashville
New York CNN —The stock market is racking up record highs again. Investors are wasting no time moving into riskier assets from bitcoin to tech stocks after last week’s long-awaited rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Fresh data this week has offered further encouragement that the economy is on solid footing. Applications to refinance a mortgage soared 20% last week from the prior week, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data. Meanwhile, tech shares have continued to gain this week on rate cut optimism and after Micron reported strong earnings.
Persons: Dow, FactSet, , Gregory Daco, Freddie Mac, Bitcoin Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Mortgage Bankers Association, Investors, Employers, Micron, Nvidia, Meta, Financial Times Locations: New York, China, Saudi Arabia
Moo Deng crypto. Given the sudden popularity of Moo Deng, the Thai national treasure whose name roughly translates as “bouncy pork,” it was only a matter of time before someone turned her into a digital asset. And given the nature of such memecoins, which have zero underlying value and trade purely on vibes, it’s no surprise Moo Deng Coin has shot up 1,400% since it was created less than three weeks ago. (It should be noted that crypto traders suspect this anonymous Moo Deng booster is an “insider,” since they bought the coin four hours after its creation, per the crypto news site Decrypt. Moo Deng coin is just the latest product of a niche online culture that also birthed Dogecoin (created as a joke to dunk on bitcoin) and Shiba Inu coin (a joke to dunk on Dogecoin).
Persons: Moo Deng, it’s, Deng, Shiba Inu Organizations: New, New York CNN Locations: New York, Thai
The Treasury market, though, hasn’t been paying attention. Officials penciled in another 50 basis points in reductions by the end of the year and another 100 by the end of 2025. That sentiment is evident in the “breakeven” inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. Taken together, the various dynamics in the Treasury market are making it a difficult time for investors.
Persons: hasn’t, , Jonathan Duensing, — haven’t, , Robert Tipp, We’re, Jerome, Powell, ” Duensing, Tom Garretson, “ They’d, There’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation, RBC Wealth Management
Stock futures traded near the flatline Thursday night as Wall Street awaits a key inflation reading. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed, as were S&P 500 futures . In the fiscal fourth quarter, the warehouse retailer reported earnings of $5.29 per share on $79.70 billion in fourth-quarter revenue. The so-called PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, and policymakers and Wall Street alike are hoping for figures that show a cooling trend. The three major indexes are higher for the week, with the S&P 500 up nearly 0.8% and the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to rise 0.3%.
Persons: LSEG, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: NYSE, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Costco Wholesale, Financial, Traders Locations: U.S
After two years of the double pain of inflation and high interest rates, those things are normalizing. Sure, jobs were plentiful and the economy was growing, but the combination of high prices and high interest rates felt demoralizing. It’s hard to overstate how much interest rates can change the economic mood, Brendan Duke, a senior director for economic policy at the Center for American Progress, told me. And while both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have proposed ways to increase the housing supply, the process will take years. “There are economic trends like falling interest rates, and there are policies like making an investment in housing supply that can move the needle,” Duke says.
Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN —, Matt Phillips, Dow, That’d, Brendan Duke, ‘ it’s, ’ ”, that’s, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, It’s, ” Duke, they’re Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Dow, Wall, Center for American Progress, National Association of Realtors Locations: New York, Canada, Australia, New Zealand
Gold, traditionally perceived as a haven, has climbed roughly 30% this year, outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 index’s 20% gain. Fresh consumer confidence data on Tuesday indicated that Americans are feeling pessimistic about the US economy and future of the job market. JPMorgan Chase researchers said in a note on Monday that they expect the yellow metal to continue running toward their 2025 target price of $2,850 an ounce as the Fed brings down rates. Silver, another precious metal that tends to move in tandem with gold, has jumped roughly 34% this year, outperforming the yellow metal. New moves from China to revive its economy also has the potential to lift precious metals, said Rhind.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Kristina Hooper, JPMorgan Chase, “ There’s, Will Rhind, Rhind Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Traders, JPMorgan, Treasury, GraniteShares, Citi Locations: New York, China, Turkey, India, China’s
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday she thought her colleagues should have taken a more measured approach to last week’s half percentage point interest rate cut as she worries that inflation could reignite. In explaining her rationale, Bowman said the half percentage point, or 50 basis point, reduction posed a number of risks to the Fed’s twin goals of achieving low inflation and full employment. Though Bowman favored a reduction, she preferred the Fed lower by a quarter percentage point, more in line with the traditional moves at the central bank. In recent statements, Fed officials have cited easing inflation and a softening labor market as justification for the cut. At last week’s meeting, individual policymakers indicated they expect another half percentage point in cuts this year and another full point in 2025.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Organizations: Federal Locations: Kentucky
Lynn Song, chief economist for greater China ING, called the repo rate cut announcement “the most important” move made during the news conference. “If we see a large fiscal policy push as well, momentum could recover heading into the fourth quarter.”The headquarters of the People’s Bank of China in Beijing. During his first news conference as central bank governor in January, Pan said the PBOC would cut the reserve requirement ratio. Unlike the Fed’s focus on a main interest rate, the PBOC uses a variety of rates to manage monetary policy. Pan has indicated he would like the 7-day rate to become the main policy rate.
Persons: Pan Gongsheng, Pan, Lynn Song, , , Jiang Qiming, ” Edmund Goh, Goldman Sachs, Li Yunze, Li, Nomura Organizations: People’s Bank of China Gov, China ING, , U.S . Federal Reserve, People’s Bank of China, China News Service, Getty, Pan, National Financial Regulatory Administration Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing, abrdn
Americans are fretting over the job market
  + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Washington CNN —America’s slowing job market is taking a toll on people’s moods. The Conference Board’s latest consumer survey showed that Americans became much more pessimistic about the US economy’s current health and the future of the job market. “September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated.”The US job market is in decent shape, but it is clearly running at a much slower pace these days than it has in recent years. Peterson said the weaker-than-expected survey results “reflected consumers’ concerns about the labor market and reactions to fewer hours, slower payroll increases, fewer job openings — even if the labor market remains quite healthy, with low unemployment, few layoffs and elevated wages.”The job market’s fate is unclear. Employers might be holding back on hiring for two good reasons: Uncertainty over the upcoming US presidential election and the fate of interest rates, CNN previously reported.
Persons: , Dana Peterson, mightily, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: Washington CNN, Conference Board, Employers, Federal Reserve, CNN
Two of Walz’s false claims are related to Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation think tank’s detailed right-wing blueprint for the next Republican administration. Project 2025 has been the subject of multiple false or misleading claims from Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign this summer. Project 2025 does not propose to make people register with any federal agency when they get pregnant. Project 2025 is firmly anti-abortion; it proposes, among other things, to criminalize the mailing of abortion medication and devices. In fact, Vance made the comment before Project 2025 was even created.
Persons: Tim Walz, Sen, JD Vance, Ohio, Donald Trump ., Kamala Harris ’, Walz, Trump, , , ” Walz, Roger Severino, ” –, Walz didn’t, , Vance, Harris Organizations: Washington CNN, Minnesota Gov, Democratic, Republican, Heritage Foundation, Trump, for Disease Control, Prevention, CDC, Department of Health, Human Services, United States Agency, International Development’s, Gender, , Women, USAID, ” CNN, Federal, Biden Locations: North Carolina, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Raleigh , North Carolina
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