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☆ Morning Bid: Global pulse picks up, rates creep higher again
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith investors largely assuming recession ahead, an accelerating global economic pulse challenges the narrative and is seeing interest rates tick back higher again as the March banking wobble subsides. With March starts and permits numbers out later, there was also signs of a troughing in the U.S. housing market. Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth straight month in April as a dearth of previously owned homes and falling mortgage rates boosted demand. Wall St futures were higher again on Tuesday, with European bourses and most Asia indices advancing too. With euro zone and UK rate expectations pushing higher too, the dollar slipped back again against the euro and sterling .

☆ Morning Bid: Brittle banks find a berth
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With few fresh weekend developments on the European bank stock rigor late last week, European bourses and bank stocks found a level too. Deutsche Bank, whose stock lurched lower on Friday amid fears about rising bank funding costs, regained about 3% on Monday. Deposits at small banks fell by $120 billion in the week to March 15, while borrowing jumped $253 billion. Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline year-on-year inflation rate to have cooled to 7.2% from 8.5% in February. * U.S. Treasury auctions 2-year notes* U.S. corporate earnings: CarnivalReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Ed Osmond, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Morning Bid: Central banks try to see through stress
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanEven with a nod to greater banking stress, the major central banks all seem determined to tighten the monetary screw another notch. With Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's pushback against suggestions of a blanket insurance of all U.S. banking deposits unnerving investors again after the Fed decision, few believe the financial stress has fully dissipated. Even though stock markets swooned after the Yellen comments on Wednesday, S&P500 futures were back up smartly ahead of Thursday's open. European bourses and banking stocks were only a touch lower in the face of the latest European rate rises. The dollar hit its lowest since early February but regained its footing ahead of the U.S. open and BoE decision.

Concerns that Chinese investors are buying overseas to make a quick profit at home are valid. Since last year, 11 Chinese companies have raised a combined $3.6 billion by selling GDRs on the Six Swiss Exchange, data from Dealogic show. Savvy punters with access to foreign funds can therefore make a quick and relatively risk-free profit by shorting the Chinese stock and buying the discounted GDRs. This helps explain why Swiss shares of Chinese companies barely trade. Since the launch of a China-Swiss stock scheme in 2022, 11 Chinese companies have raised a combined $3.6 billion, according to data from Dealogic.

☆ Morning Bid: Ten-four, Treasury yields soar
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The remarkable sight of 10-year Treasury yields back above 4% for the first time in almost four months is only matched by two-year yields at 15-year highs stalking 5%. Weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the latest Fed speakers take on unusual importance in such a febrile rates market. And 6% Fed rates that seemed fanciful only a month ago are now being openly discussed by banks. Despite year-on-year oil prices now tracking declines of 25%, European inflation fears are a key feature of this week's nervousness. Benchmark German 10-year bond yields soared to 11-year highs at 2.77%.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets March on China boomlet
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

And after a bruising setback for stocks and bonds in February, investors now have to assess whether the unfolding economic rebound is sustainable given the eye-watering revision that it's forcing in inflation and interest rate expectations. This is emboldening both the hawks at the European Central Bank and markets keen to re-price the interest rate horizon. Money markets have already moved beyond that and now price peak ECB rates at year-end almost 150 bps higher at 3.90%. Even though U.S. consumer confidence and housing data on Tuesday questioned some of the reheating narrative, markets now assume peak Federal Reserve rates will be as high as 5.42% by July. And homebuilder Persimmon (PSN.L) dropped almost 10% after it warned the housing slowdown and higher mortgage rates would hit profit and home-building targets.

☆ Morning Bid: A quart and two halves
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. February kicked off on Wednesday without too much trepidation about how all that will pan out. Before the Fed announcement, ADP releases its January private sector employment readout for last month and markets will also scan the December JOLTS job openings report. While markets await the 'Triple-A' of Big Tech releases on Thursday, Meta (META.O) is due to report later today and the dour news from elsewhere in the tech sector kept coming. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Seeing through another shock
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Brazil's weekend political shock reminds world markets of fragile geopolitics, but investors more broadly appear happier to stick with a new year narrative of recovery from a dire 2022. Days after his inauguration, leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva announced a federal security intervention in Brasilia until Jan. 31. Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks on Tuesday but the big data release of this week is Thursday's consumer price report. The gap between positive euro zone economic surprise indices and negative U.S. equivalents is now at its widest since June. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ European shares gain on China recovery optimism
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Bansari Mayur Kamdar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) gained 0.4% to start the holiday-shortened week higher. China on Monday said it would drop its quarantine requirements for inbound visitors, further easing three-year border controls aimed at curbing COVID. While London and Dublin markets remained closed for the Christmas holiday, most European bourses advanced in early trading. Miners (.SXPP) and energy stocks (.SXEP) added 1.0% and 1.4%, respectively, as commodity prices jumped on hopes of demand recovery in top consumer China. Industrials (.SXNP) and banks (.SX7P) gained for a second straight session, lifting the broader European index.

☆ European shares eye upbeat end to week on banks, healthcare boost
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Amruta Khandekar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies STOXX 600 rises 0.2%Banks, healthcare firms gainBavarian Nordic at the top of STOXX 600Italian business morale rises in DecemberDec 23 (Reuters) - Europe's STOXX 600 edged higher on Friday, with gains in healthcare firms and banks putting the index on course to end the last week before Christmas on an upbeat note. The region-wide STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 0.2% at 0915 GMT and was bound for a 0.8% weekly advance. Morale amongst Italian businesses and consumers rose in December, data showed on Friday, although the manufacturing sector was more downbeat. On the economic data front, a report showed Spain's economy expanded 0.1% in the third quarter, slowing from a 2.0% growth rate in the previous three-month period. Among STOXX 600 sectors, shares of retailers (.SXRP) rose 0.6% to lead gains.

☆ Morning Bid: A year in reverse
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 14, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew KellyA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. The EV firm's ailing stock popped up about 2% from two-year lows in pre-market trading on the news. Reuters GraphicsBroader world markets headed into the holiday-strewn year-end in only a slightly less gloomy mood on Wednesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Hanging tough
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

As the world's major central banks turned the interest rate screw this week and insisted on more tightening ahead, their economies showed more signs of buckling under the pressure. And while markets lurched lower on the potentially toxic combination of a higher peak for interest rates into a looming recession, there are reasonable questions over whether the central banks will act as tough as they are talking. U.S. manufacturing declined 0.6% last month and reports from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve's showed business conditions in their regions remaining depressed in December. Even though after Wall St stocks plunged 2-3% on Thursday, futures remained deep in the red ahead of Friday's open. Led by the jump in euro zone sovereign borrowing rates after the ECB rethink, bond yields were higher across the board.

☆ Morning Bid: Still a ways to go?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

For markets navigating the barrage of major central bank interest rate rises this week - there's a ways to go, much as Fed chief Jerome Powell insists about the tightening cycle. Central banks in the Philippines, Norway and Taiwan also raised rates by 50bp, 25bp and 12.5bp respectively. But the policy message all around is that more pain is coming unless there's further evidence of sky-high inflation rates returning to 2% targets. Peak Fed rates implied in futures markets on Thursday remain 20bp below that official Fed projection and year-end market pricing is some 70bp below it. The economy there lost more steam in November as factory output slowed and retail sales extended declines, both missing forecasts and clocking their worst readings in six months.

☆ Morning Bid: China reopening as volatility ebbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

What's more, Wall Street's 'fear index' is showing little if any trepidation about the final month of the year. Even though it backed up a bit today, the VIX index of implied S&P500 volatility (.VIX) closed at its lowest in 8 months on Friday. Morgan Stanley updated its China equity recommendation to overweight, citing "multiple positive developments alongside a clear path set towards reopening." China's yuan , surged past 7 to the dollar in onshore and offshore markets - its best levels in almost three months. The China re-opening optimism buoyed the oil price even as OPEC+ nations at the weekend held their targets steady despite last week's market speculation of another output cut.

☆ Morning Bid: Shot across the bow
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The euro lost 1.5 cents as the news from Poland unfolded but has regained all of that since. European bourses have been less quick to rebound and remain in the red, with aerospace and defence stock outperforming. "Tighter money has not yet constrained business activity enough to seriously dent inflation," Bostic wrote on the Atlanta Fed's website. U.S. attention will turn to retail sales on Wednesday as October data is due for release alongside industry readings. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Fed peak rate talk meets China curbs, grain strain
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. That lifted short and long-term Treasury yields on Monday , , with the dollar rising again across the board. China's factory and services activity unexpectedly fell in October, weighed by softening global demand and strict domestic COVID-19 curbs. In banking, Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) on Monday unveiled details of its plan to raise 4 billion Swiss francs ($4.01 billion) from investors to tackle the biggest crisis in its 166-year history. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Fed peak rate talk meets China curbs, grain strain
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Morning Bid: Earnings vs Rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Oct 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Market tension is building between surprising positivity still coming from the unfolding corporate earnings season and the anxiety in interest rate markets and macro gloom. But earnings may be just a rearview mirror of the economy and the inflation and interest rate backdrop showed little sign of improvement across the western economies. U.S. 10- and 30-year bond yields were now both above 4% this week for the first time in 12 years. Oil prices steadied after Tuesday's slide amid reports U.S. President Joe Biden plans to release more of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

☆ Morning Bid: British bond burn
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

read moreAhead of the open, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were again flirting with the year's highs above 4% and global stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) were heading for new 2022 lows. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday:* U.S. Sept NFIB small business index. * International Monetary Fund publishes World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report at annual IMF/World Bank meeting in Washington. * Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, BoE deputy governor Jon Cunliffe, Swiss National Bank chief Thomas Jordan, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane, ECB board member Fabio Panetta, ECB bank supervisor Andrea Enria speak in United States. Long Gilt Yields SoarRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterBy Mike Dolan, editing by Ed Osmond, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Morning Bid: Eye of the storm
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton TPX IMAGES OF THE DAYA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. As Hurricane Ian raged and set its sights on Cuba and Florida, a global financial storm in bond and currency markets calmed moderately - though likely only temporarily. read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterFor all its potential destruction, Ian doesn't yet appear on the world markets radar. UK debt auctions this week will be watched very closely. But this may be the eye of the storm.

☆ Stocks muted, Sweden kicks off salvo of central bank hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The MSCI all country stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) was 0.2% ahead, leaving it down about 20% from a lifetime high in January. Sweden's central bank hiked rates by a greater than expected full percentage point on Tuesday and warned of more to come. read moreLuca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, said the U.S. central bank would likely ease the pace of hikes going into next year. "The market, in a way, is probably expecting a peak in rates," Paolini said, adding that market focus would then switch to how higher rates were affecting economies and company earnings. Terminal rate projection also leapsCONTRARIAN CHINAChina's central bank kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged at a monthly fixing on Tuesday, as expected.

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