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"We are looking into ways to express this (China recovery) theme in our portfolio rather than just say 'let's go long China equity'. "Given the higher risk premium of China stocks, the demand for 'shadowing' China will continue to be strong," Jefferies said. The relative cheapness of European stocks, at least at the start of this year, has also been important. Luxury stocks - less vulnerable to sanctions - have performed well, but geopolitical worries have bruised tech firms, and manufacturing difficulties have hurt commodity stocks. "What is doing extremely well this year is luxury; if you'd bought European miners hoping that China would stimulate, you'd have got it wrong."

☆ Regional bank stocks could be a market afterthought in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

For the immediate economic and earnings and growth outlook, it almost seems irrelevant whether regional bank stocks rally, steady or sell off more next week. Regional banks were top of mind for investors this past week, as First Republic failed , the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF tumbled more than 10% — twice the five-day loss in the S & P 500 Energy Index, the hardest hit S & P sector — and lenders such as PacWest Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp lost billions in market value. And, for all that, the S & P 500 only fell about 0.75% this week. Now the conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that regardless of how the regional bank stocks trade, it's a given that bank lending officers are going to pull in their horns and risk management desks will grow more risk averse. But stocks still face a host of issues, none of which are going away next week.

☆ Analysis: China rebound buoys hopes for stronger-than-expected US, Europe earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

But recent data and upbeat comments from major companies like LVMH (LVMH.PA), Europe's most valuable listed company, about business in China have given investors some cause for optimism. Refinitiv I/B/E/S data points to a 2.5% decline in earnings growth in the first quarter for STOXX 600 (.STOXX) companies, down from a forecast for 5.4% growth prior to the banking chaos. Europe is headed for a recession too, the data shows, with a drop in earnings of 5.4% expected in the second quarter. But stubbornly high inflation means major central banks are expected to continue to hike rates, at least in May. European financials are expected to report first-quarter earnings growth of 31%, according to Refinitiv.

A broad measure of European shares, the STOXX 600 index (.STOXX), is trading at 14-month highs, taking this year's gains to almost 10%. James Rutland, a European equities fund manager at Invesco, noted that consistent outflows from European shares last year, when the energy crisis dealt the region a fresh blow, had left valuations at very cheap levels. A broad index of European stocks is trading at a multiple of 12.6, compared with a ratio of 18.1 for the S&P 500, according to Refinitiv data. This 5.5 point premium is above the five-year average of around 4 points, suggesting European shares look cheap compared to their U.S. counterparts. "This has broken European stocks out of their relative downward trend, so we don't think Europe is now a structural underperformer," he said.

LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Banking sector turmoil has not dented demand for equities, with MSCI's world stock index up 7% so far this year. But under the surface, bad omens for world stocks are building. Central bank surveys show U.S. and European banks are already tightening lending standards, historically a predictor of dismal stock market performance. Credit tightening predicts poor stock market returns2/ MANUFACTURING SLOWDOWNRecessions starting in the United States tend to flow to the rest of the world and consequently global stocks. Seven mega-cap tech stocks were responsible for 92% of the S&P 500's first-quarter rise, Citi notes.

☆ Analysis: Boom in European bank earnings hints at a rally with legs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The euro zone is expected to stagnate rather than contract, while cost of borrowing is still rising. The European Central Bank's campaign to raise interest rates as it fights to bring inflation back to its 2% target has been a boon for euro zone lenders. In the meantime, euro zone lenders' earnings per share (EPS) have surged to their highest since the global financial crisis in 2008. In the United State, where the rate cycle is more advanced, there's less potential for earnings upgrades at this point, she said. Earnings euro zone banks($1 = 0.9408 euros)Reporting by Joice Alves and additional reporting by Samuel Indyk in London; editing by Amanda Cooper and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: The deep freeze over UK assets is thawing
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"This does suggest a possible inflection point in sentiment towards UK assets," said Nick Kissack, a UK portfolio manager at Schroders, which manages roughly $910 billion of client funds. "We saw extreme levels of risk aversion," in September, he added, while "the risk premium for UK assets has come down since." That, in short, is an outlook of higher global interest rates, weak growth and high inflation. Reuters GraphicsHowever, analysts expect the FTSE 100's rise to falter with a stronger global growth outlook combined with waning energy inflation. "The UK is the standout global economy where growth prospects have not improved," said Baylee Wakefield, multi-asset portfolio manager at Aviva Investors, who expects gilts to continue outperforming Treasuries.

☆ Stock futures are down on Sunday night as Wall Street tries to rebound from a rocky week: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-12 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on February 10, 2023 in New York City. U.S. stock futures were down on Sunday night after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended their worst week in nearly two months. S&P 500 futures fell by about 0.26%. Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 64 points, or 0.19%, and Nasdaq-100 futures slid 0.31%. The S&P 500 fell 1.11%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 2.41%, marking their biggest weekly losses since December.

☆ Wall Street is bullish on Europe — but analysts warn investors to avoid these 5 stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

And Wall Street is calling Europe a better bet than the U.S. right now . "The region also remains cheap and under-owned unlike the U.S." Amid this bullishness on Europe, however, a number of investment banks have named stocks in the region they think investors should avoid. Underweight stocks One such stock is Danish shipping firm Maersk , which is on Barclays' list of underweight stock calls for the first quarter of 2023. Barclays' price target of 140 Swedish krona ($13.50) on the stock suggests the stock has potential downside of almost 25% to its Jan. 30 closing price. The bank has ascribed a price target of 145 Swedish Krona on the stock, which implies potential downside of 30%.

☆ Barclays names 6 'cheap, under-owned' UK stocks to buy, saying 2 offer more than 50% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Barclays Capital has named six London-listed stocks to buy as it believes the U.K. stock market is currently "cheap" and "under-owned." Two of the investment bank's picks — Drax Group and IG Holdings — are also predicted to rise by more than 50% in the next 12 months, thanks to several policy tailwinds. Drax Group Drax, which runs one of the last remaining biomass and coal-fueled power stations in the U.K., is one of Barclays' preferred stocks. IG Group Shares of stockbroker IG Group could rise by 55% over the next year to £12 a share, Barclays analysts have said. The investment bank believes a high-interest rate environment allows the stockbroker to earn interest on a customer's deposit, further increasing its profit margins.

☆ The U.S. is massively underperforming global stock markets, and analysts see more of the same
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), January 5, 2023. Andrew Kelly | ReutersComparison chart of U.S. stocks versus European and global peers. "However, if the macro situation in the U.S. were to deteriorate more, history suggests the decoupling between the two markets may not last long." Places like Germany, northern Europe, so I think these again are some of the little factors people have forgotten," he said. "Tourism, again, a big plus for Europe, and then finally the fact that European assets have been undervalued and under owned for some time."

☆ Analysis: Europe Inc earnings season a test for market optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In a sign analysts were unprepared for such optimism, Citi's economic surprise indicator for the euro zone (.CESIEUR) jumped last week to its highest since July 2021. "Companies are telling us that it's going to be harder to pass on rising costs to customers in 2023 as economic growth slows," said Nigel Bolton, co-chief investment officer of BlackRock Fundamental Equities. Fourth-quarter earnings for STOXX 600 companies are forecast to have grown by 10.7% year-on-year, the slowest in two years, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S data. Earnings are seen bouncing back to growth of 11.4% in the final quarter of the year. Analysts downgrade earnings forecastsReporting by Joice Alves Editing by Josephine Mason and Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) was up 0.1% by 0910 GMT, extending gains for a sixth straight day on boost from rate-sensitive technology stocks (.SX8P) and industrials (.SXNP). Richemont (CFR.S) rose 2% on reporting higher quarterly sales as tourists returned to Europe and Japan. Still, the luxury group missed market estimates after sales in China plunged by almost a quarter. "For luxury, China is quite important with more hopes of rebounding activity in the first half of this year," said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays Investment Bank. Reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-PhillipsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ We aren't excited about health-care stocks, Barclays strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe aren't excited about health-care stocks, Barclays strategist saysEmmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at the bank, discusses the outlook for European markets in 2023.

Some top equity strategists predict no profit growth or even a decline in earnings. For the U.S. benchmark S&P 500, analysts project full-year 2023 profit growth of 4.7% following estimated growth of 5.7% for all of 2022, based on Refinitiv data. Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse Securities in New York, recently lowered his profit forecast and expects a decline in year-over-year S&P 500 earnings in 2023. "Our analysis shows that both earnings and margins typically contract when global GDP (gross domestic product) growth ran below trend". Earnings breakdown by regionEarnings growth by global sectorBlackRock in its 2023 global outlook said earnings expectations are not yet pricing in a recession.

☆ China's COVID policy is top of mind for investors as unrest rattled markets this week. Here are 5 things they're watching as Beijing signals willingness to loosen some restrictions.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-03 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Chinese cities this week loosened COVID restrictions in the wake of mass protests, lifting Chinese stocks. China's top pandemic official this week appeared to signal a softening in the zero-COVID policy but the government has yet to pledge a comprehensive step-down. Retail investors should be prepared to move defensively should Beijing's decisions on zero-COVID policy go against their respective positions, Martin said. Here's what some market experts are looking at as global investors watch for developments surrounding the Chinese government's zero-COVID stance. "You have to understand that nobody has an edge as to predicting China policy anymore.

☆ Rates and recession: European shares face rocky start to 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Danilo Masoni | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

For the coming months, though, investors fear euro zone equities could lag other markets. "The economic outlook looks challenging as our economists forecast a recession in the euro zone," said Marc Haefliger, Head of Global Equity Strategy at Credit Suisse in Zurich. The economic slowdown will hit the cyclical euro zone market disproportionately," he added. The STOXX index of the euro zone's top 50 blue chip stocks (.STOXX50E) is seen falling another 7.9% from Friday's close to 3,650 points by mid-2023. Among country benchmarks, Germany's DAX (.GDAXI) is seen ending the first half of 2023 at 13,209, down 9.2% from Friday's close.

☆ Investors' fear of missing out on the upside is back, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors' fear of missing out on the upside is back, analyst saysEmmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays, speaks to CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe."

"The latest round of China reopening hopes have helped drive us higher here again," he told clients. Any change to that scenario may be a positive impulse for cyclical stocks, it said, but it adds to the inflation headache for central banks. "The somewhat negative implication of stronger China growth is that it would likely add to global inflationary pressure. "We suspect Chinese re-opening (will) imply upside risks to commodity prices and global rates." But even with a G20 summit due next week, global cooperation has been in short supply in fractious 2022.

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