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☆ Wall St Week Ahead After breathtaking surge, US stocks' path may rest on economic soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up nearly 18% for the year and less than 2% away from its year-high, reached in July. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, ”, Yung, Yu Ma, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, ” Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Seasonality, LSEG Datastream, Jason Pride, Keith Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, BMO Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, “, CPI, Dakota Wealth, Nvidia, Advisory Services, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead - After breathtaking surge, U.S. stocks' path may rest on economic soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up 17% for the year and about 6% from its record closing high from January 2022. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.

☆ This year has been a ‘nightmare’ for investors with most stocks, assets underperforming, according to Ned Davis Research
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The S & P 500 may have advanced in 2023, but it has been a nightmare for stock pickers, said Ned Davis Research. The S & P 500 is higher by 15% this year, buoyed by gains in megacap tech stocks and, more recently, by falling Treasury yields. In fact, the median return of -1.1% in the S & P 500 has only been lower seven times since 1972. Over the past three months, only 32.5% of stocks beat the S & P 500, the note said. "But in terms of sizeable options for most asset allocators, 2023 has been historically tough," Clissold wrote.

Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Clissold Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Ned Locations: U.S

☆ Wall Street braces for big tech earnings and key economic data in the week ahead as Treasury yields rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Major earnings reports and economic data will be in focus next week as investors seek clarity on how the Federal Reserve will proceed from here. But next week will bring the lion's share of results including reports from mega-cap darlings Alphabet, Amazon , Meta Platforms and Microsoft . While the S & P 500 is higher by 10% in 2023, the equal-weighted index is down slightly. Of note, Tesla shares sank more than 9% on Thursday following a pessimistic economic outlook from CEO Elon Musk during the company's earnings call. Its the S & P 500's first weekly loss in three weeks.

Persons: bode, Elon Musk, We're, Sam Stovall, it's, Raphael Bostic, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Clissold, Katie Stockton, Rob Ginsberg, I'm, CFRA's Stovall, Stovall, Sherwin, Williams, Kimberly, Hess, Raymond James Financial, Keurig Dr Pepper, Northrop, Willis Towers Watson, Stanley Black, Rowe Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Microsoft, Investors, CFRA, Dow Jones, Treasury, Fed, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Wolfe Research, Chicago, P, PMI, P Global PMI Manufacturing, P Global PMI Services, Richmond Fed, Visa, Texas Instruments, General Electric, NextEra Energy, Raytheon Technologies, Dow, Inc, General Motors, Halliburton, Coca, Corning, Hilton Worldwide, General Dynamics, Dominion Freight, Mobile US, Boeing, Raymond, Technology, Whirlpool, International Business Machines, O'Reilly, Honeywell, Northrop Grumman, Mastercard, Amazon, Royal Caribbean Group, Tractor Supply, United Parcel Service, Hasbro, Southwest Airlines, Comcast, Hershey, Intel, L3Harris Technologies, Ford Motor, Energy, Chevron, Decker, Exxon Mobil, Colgate, Palmolive Locations: U.S, Atlanta, AbbVie

☆ Analysis: US stock market technicals suggest possible rebound as earnings, CPI loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 has slid about 5% since reaching its late-July high, but so far this month the benchmark index has rebounded. In 12 of those times the S&P 500 was higher six months later, Turnquist said. Reuters GraphicsStocks have tended to perform well at year end -- with November and December logging the second and third-biggest average S&P 500 monthly gains -- though this year the trends may portend even more favorably. That was followed by a 28% rally in the S&P 500 through late July of this year. Further, notes Delwiche, stock market breadth has been weak.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Clissold, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Willie Delwiche, Delwiche, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Thursday’s U.S, Ned, Ned Davis Research, LPL, Reuters Graphics, American, of, Mount Research, NYSE, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Market seasonality is playing out almost perfectly as Wall Street feels discomfort
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-23 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

In fact, the S & P 500's now-6% decline from its cycle peak began almost too perfectly, exactly as the often-tough month of August got underway, continuing into September, the worst month for stock performance through history. Similar reassuring stats are spit out when accounting for years when the S & P 500 was up more than 10% through July, or for pre-election years. The S & P 500 was oversold by some short-term measures, such as fewer than 15% of S & P 500 stocks sitting above their 10-day average price. That makes sense for sure, though it has meant that the equal-weighted S & P 500 is up only 1% this year and has tentatively broken a multiyear uptrend, while small-cap stocks are suffering worse still. And even for the market-cap-weighted S & P 500, the forward P/E is down from nearly 20 to 18 since late July, as prices have fallen, and analysts' forecasts have continued to plod higher.

Persons: doesn't, Ryan Detrick, there's, Goldman Sachs, abetted, Jerome Powell, It's, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Clissold Organizations: Carson, Treasury, Fed, Ned, Ned Davis Research Locations: Friday's, U.S

☆ Fed-induced recession could come to fruition in 2024: Ned Davis Research's Ed Clissold
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed-induced recession could come to fruition in 2024: Ned Davis Research's Ed ClissoldEd Clissold, Ned Davis Research chief U.S. strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss recession risk in the stock market following the Fed decision this week, how Clissold is mananging the current environment, and more.

Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold Ed Clissold Organizations: Ned Davis Research

☆ Wall St Week Ahead: Investor hopes for US soft landing ride on inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Too high a number could fan fears of the Fed leaving interest rates higher for longer or hiking them more in coming months. That would give investors less reason to hold onto stocks after a tech-led drop in which the S&P 500 lost about 5% from summer highs. Reasons for optimism include the relative outperformance of the U.S. economy compared to Europe and China, and signs the so-called profit recession among S&P 500 companies may be over. The S&P 500 Information Technology sector lost more than 2% this week following news that Beijing had ordered central government employees to stop using iPhones for work. Still, much of the bull case for stocks hinges on softer inflation eventually pushing the Fed to lower interest rates.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Michael Purves, Randy Frederick, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Tallbacken Capital Advisors, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Technology, Apple, Huawei, Chief, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Credit Suisse Securities, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Europe, China, Beijing

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investor hopes for US soft landing ride on inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Here's why trillions of dollars in money market funds may not restart the stock market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The 2023 stock market rally caught many investors off guard, with mountains of excess cash sitting in money market funds. "Money market balances are building up, which is unusual given how much the stock market has rallied recently. And history suggests that money market funds are not always fuel for a buy-the-dip trend to support a late-stage rally. Through that lens, the growth of money market funds in 2023 can also be linked to the regional bank crisis earlier this year. Clissold said discussions with wealth advisory clients suggest that "some of that money market fund money does leak into the stock market," albeit over time.

Persons: Emmanuel Cau, Callie Cox, Cox, Todd Sohn, Sohn, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Clissold, John Tobin, Dreyfus, I'm, corporates, Tobin Organizations: Bank of America, EPFR, Investment Company Institute, Nasdaq, Barclays, Money, Federal Reserve, Ned, Ned Davis Research, BNY Mellon Investment Management, CIO Locations: U.S

☆ Nvidia really needs its earnings to come through to justify its rallies, says Ned Davis' Ed Clissold
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNvidia really needs its earnings to come through to justify its rallies, says Ned Davis' Ed ClissoldEd Clissold, Ned Davis Research chief U.S. strategist and Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex chief market strategist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.

Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold Ed Clissold, Kathryn Kaminski Organizations: Nvidia, Ned Davis Research

☆ Most economic data suggests chance of an imminent recession ‘pretty low': Ned Davis’ Ed Clissold
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMost economic data suggests chance of an imminent recession ‘pretty low': Ned Davis’ Ed ClissoldEd Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research, joins ‘Closing Bell’ to discuss why he thinks the bull run on the market is not over yet, whether we are heading into a recession and more.

Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold Ed Clissold, Bell Organizations: Ned, Ned Davis Research Locations: U.S

☆ Dividend payers underperformed in the first half. Here’s why they could make a comeback
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Dividend payers are on track for their worst half against stocks that don't pay dividends since 2009, Ed Clissold, the firm's chief U.S. strategist, wrote in a June 22 report. "Our index of S & P 500 Dividend Payers underperformed Non-Payers by 13.7% year to date," he said. Meanwhile, the ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) is up 3% in 2023. SPYD .SPX YTD line SPDR Portfolio S & P 500 High Dividend ETF versus the S & P 500 in 2023 One of the reasons behind dividend stocks' underperformance is the fact that they have low betas. For starters, dividend payers tend to outperform during the second year of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycles, NDR found.

Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Clissold, Jerome Powell, Michael Bloom Organizations: Ned Davis Research, underperformed, Nasdaq

☆ Stock market heads into the second half with near 15% total return so far in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 had just sustained its worst calendar-year loss in half a generation. Textbook consolidation Last week's modest 1.4% decline in the S & P 500 did little to alter either the favorable underlying market trend or the notion that more consolidation might be in store. The median year-end S & P 500 target among Street strategists is 4250, 100 points below Friday's close, and the most-bullish forecast is for about a 5% further gain. And just as the market's performance has been skewed toward these hit hyper-cap tech stocks, so is the S & P 500's valuation. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 1-year Big picture: The market this year has chewed through plenty of perfectly valid excuses to falter without doing so.

Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Jeremy Schwartz, Lori Calvasina, we'll Organizations: Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Ned Davis Research, New, Nvidia, General Motors, Whirlpool, RBC Capital Locations: DC

☆ Halfway through 2023 Wall Street still can't agree on the earnings outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A strange year: Halfway through, there is a wide difference of opinion on earnings Strategists analyze the macroeconomy to come up with an estimate for corporate earnings. They analyze individual company performance to come up with earnings estimates, which are then aggregated into an overall estimate by agencies like FactSet or Refinitiv. The S & P 500 reported $218 in earnings in 2022, according to Refinitiv. This highlights the difference between analysts and strategists: Analysts have models for earnings of individual companies, not the macroeconomy as strategists do. However, in this case, their reticence to slash earnings estimates in expectation of an imminent recession or a banking crisis has proved to be correct.

Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Mike Wilson's, John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer, David Kostin, Brian Belski, Jonathan Golub, Lori Calvasina, Savita Subramanian, Chris Harvey, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Hatzius Organizations: Here's, BMO, Credit, RBC, Wells, Bloomberg, Bank Locations: U.S

Right now though, the market has never been more top-heavy and the share of market constituents outperforming the broader index has never been lower. According to Ed Clissold at Ned Davis Research, the percentage of stocks outperforming the S&P 500 this year is just 24.5%. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the index on a rolling three-month basis is just 20.3%, a record low. Clissold says that the S&P 500's one-year gain after periods of relative strength by a small group of large caps is an average 1.8%. These five stocks account for over a quarter of the S&P 500's $36.78 trillion market cap, and the top 10 account for a third of the total.

Persons: bode, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Meb Faber, Chuck Prince's, Cambria's Faber, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: NYSE, Barclays, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Ned Davis Research, Reuters, Google, Cambria Investment Management, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida

☆ 'Bears might have it completely wrong' on recession outlook, says Renaissance's Jeff DeGraaf
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Bears might have it completely wrong' on recession outlook, says Renaissance's Jeff DeGraafJeff DeGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research, and Ed Clissold, Ned Davis Research, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the domestic and global markets, recession fears, and a potential bull market.

☆ For battered U.S. bank shares, earnings may make or break
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Even so, the S&P 500 bank index (.SPXBK) is down 16% since March 8, two days before Silicon Valley's collapse, with the failure of Signature Bank and problems at other banks adding to the turmoil. Some say quarterly results could be key to what happens next with bank shares. Among other financials, Jefferies Financial Group (JEF.N) is expected to report quarterly results after the closing bell Tuesday. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to fall 4.6% in the first quarter of 2023 from the year-ago period. They are forecasting S&P 500 financials (.SPSY) to post year-over-year earnings growth in the first quarter of 5.4%, making it among just four sectors whose earnings are expected to climb.

☆ Explaining the relative calm of the stock market as the Fed hikes rates into a mini-financial panic
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

.SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year So, are equities under-reacting to a badly contorted bond market, a potentially trapped Fed and faltering economy? This has allowed the S & P 500 excluding financials and real estate to outperform the headline index by a couple percentage points year to date. Microsoft alone has added some $240 billion in market value since that date, more than the entire market cap of the S & P 500 regional-banks sub sector. Only about 60% of the S & P 500 members are positive over the past six months even as the index is up 7.5%, a loss of internal energy. The flash S & P Global U.S. Composite PMI for March, reported Friday, was up to 53.3 from 50.1 the prior month and above the 49.5 forecast, a reading S & P says is consistent with around a 2% real GDP pace.

☆ Ned Davis' Ed Clissold on the recipe for a Q2 rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNed Davis' Ed Clissold on the recipe for a Q2 rallyEd Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research, joins 'Closing Bell' as tech stocks have outperformed this year while investors flock to the sector amid more rate hikes and bank turmoil.

The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes will be a key focal point for investors in the week ahead, as they seek clarity on the central bank's interest rate hiking path. Fed meeting minutes For Wall Street, there will be greater emphasis next week on the minutes from the Fed's latest meeting, which are set to be released Wednesday. Following some recent comments from central bank officials suggesting greater rate hikes ahead, investors will parse the meeting minutes for further signs of hawkishness. ET: Fed minutes 5:30 p.m. ET: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (February) Earnings: Alibaba , Beyond Meat , Block , Booking Holdings , Warner Bros Discovery Friday 8:30 a.m.

☆ Stocks have transitioned from ‘quiet quitting’ to a ‘quiet rebuilding,’ Ned Davis Research says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The benchmark index also entered a bear market, dropping more than 20% from its record high set in early January 2022. Ned Davis Research's Ed Clissold noted that stocks were "quiet quitting" heading into 2022, as market breadth deteriorated. Quiet quitting is a term that came about during the Covid pandemic and refers to employees choosing not to go above and beyond their job requirements. .SPX mountain 2021-01-13 From 'quiet quitting' to 'quiet rebuilding'? CNBC's Market Strategist Survey shows the median S & P 500 strategist target sits at 4,100, implying upside of just 6.8% for 2023.

☆ The stock market's biggest risk in 2023 is a drop in corporate earnings, even if the economy avoids a recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market's biggest risk in 2023 is a decline in corporate earnings, according to Ned Davis Research. "The direction of earnings revisions is likely to be down regardless of whether Powell can find some of Greenspan's 1994 soft-landing magic." In a non-recession scenario, NDR estimates that earnings revisions "in the ballpark of 8% would be a reasonable assumption." "If the economy falls into a recession, [earnings] revisions could be the biggest since 2020 COVID-19 shutdown and possibly larger than during the 2015 oil collapse," Clissold said. "Unless economic conditions improve quickly, earnings revisions could be severe."

☆ Analysis: U.S. stock investors face recession fears as they bid good riddance to 2022
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The issue is how much has the market already discounted a recession, and that’s where it gets a little bit thornier." Concerns that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance helped drive the S&P 500 down 1.45% on Thursday. The S&P 500 marked a 2022 closing low of 3,577.03 in October, just over 6% below its current level. Yet earnings fall by an average annual rate of 24% during recessions, according to Clissold, leaving plenty of downside for profits if a slowdown hits. Bear markets on average have bottomed four months before the end of a recession, according to Clissold, of Ned Davis.

☆ 2023 should be a brighter year for the traditional 60/40 portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Investors who stuck to the traditional portfolio breakdown of 60% allocated to stocks and 40% allocated to bonds were hit hard this year as both asset classes shed value. Bonds also lost value for investors this year, going against the traditional correlation where they act as a hedge to stock market volatility. Still, most analysts don't expect the year to yield a worse performance than 2022 for the standard 60/40 portfolio. That bodes well for investors who still have a traditional portfolio balance. And even though the traditional 60/40 portfolio had a dismal 2022, investors shouldn't write it off.

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