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The 10-year yield on Thursday afternoon stood at about 4.7%, some 18 basis points from the 16-year highs touched last week. “Every time the Fed pauses, yields come down, but the market is not convinced they’re quite there yet." There's plenty of evidence that financial conditions, which reflect the availability of credit in the economy, have tightened in recent months. Credit market spreads have widened as investors demand a higher yield on riskier assets, such as corporate bonds. Fed funds futures show investors pricing in a roughly 15% chance of the central bank's raising rates next month, from around 27% last week.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Leslie Falconio, they’re, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Mark Dowding, Goldman Sachs, Edward Al, Hussainy, Neuberger Berman, Jonathan Cohn, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, . Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, Dallas Fed, RBC Global Asset Management, Reuters, Treasury, Columbia, Nasdaq, Nomura Securities International, Thomson

Developers, financial advisers and bondholders said that could make debt restructuring terms much worse than expected earlier. DEFAULTING DEVELOPERSThe property sector accounts for roughly a quarter of the world's second-largest economy. That could trigger off one of the world's biggest debt restructuring exercises. However, a turnaround (in the property sector) may need more," said Chuanyi Zhou, Asia corporate analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, which holds Sunac's bonds. Chinese policymakers rolled out a range of support measures in late August and early September to revive the property sector.

Persons: Shimao, Chuanyi Zhou, Yuzhou, Edward Al, Clare Jim, Xie Yu, Davide Barbuscia, Sumeet Chatterjee, Kim Coghill Organizations: HONG KONG, JPMorgan, HK, Shimao, CIFI Holdings, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Developers, Reuters, Kaisa, Columbia, China Index Academy, Thomson Locations: HONG, China, Asia, Hong Kong, New York

Jobs growth for September nearly doubled expectations as nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month, strengthening views that policymakers will need to keep interest rates elevated to cool inflation. Treasury yields move inversely to bond prices. “It’s quite a report,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. On the long end of the curve, 30-year yields surged above 5% hitting their highest since 2007. However, Craig Ellinger, head of Americas fixed income at UBS Asset Management, believes more rate increases could be in store.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Peter Cardillo, Jake Schurmeier, ” Alex McGrath, Tiffany Wilding, Craig Ellinger, Ellinger, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Stephen Culp, Sruthi Shankar, Ira Iosebashvili, Chizu Nomiyama, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Spartan Capital Securities, Harbor Capital, ADP, Fed, UBS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, Americas

So-called bond vigilantes - investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds, driving yields higher - were a feature of markets in the 1990s, when concerns over U.S. federal spending pushed Treasury yields to 8%. Strategist Ed Yardeni, who coined the bond vigilantes term in the early 1980s, has also chimed in. “The bond vigilantes have been challenging (Treasury Secretary Janet) Yellen’s policies by raising bond yields to levels that threaten to create a debt crisis,” he said in a Financial Times opinion piece on Wednesday. Famed bond investor Bill Gross, who co-founded Pacific Investment Management Co., said bond vigilantes will have a muted effect now given the Fed's larger role in markets. Bond investors "are rather powerless pawns in this interest rate chess game," he told Reuters by email.

Persons: Fitch, doesn't, Gene Tannuzzo, Jake Remley, Ed Yardeni, Janet, ”, Bill Gross, Greg Whiteley, Robert Tipp, David Randall, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Bond, Columbia, Treasury, Apollo, Treasury Department, Government, Social, Research, Management, “, Pacific Investment Management Co, Thomson Locations: Wall, Boston

☆ The case for a November rate increase is going down, says WSJ's Nick Timiraos
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe case for a November rate increase is going down, says WSJ's Nick TimiraosNick Timiraos, The Wall Street Journal chief economics correspondent, and Brenda Vingiello, Sand Hill Global Advisors CIO, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the jump in interest rates, the impact on the economy and Fed leaders looking to tame inflation, rising Treasury yields, and more.

Persons: Nick Timiraos Nick Timiraos, Brenda Vingiello Organizations: Street Journal, CIO Locations: Sand

REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - A U.S. government shutdown would negatively impact the country's credit, credit rating agency Moody's said on Monday, a stern warning coming one month after Fitch downgraded the U.S. by one notch on the back of a debt ceiling crisis. Moody's has an "Aaa" rating for the U.S. government with a stable outlook - the highest creditworthiness it assigns to borrowers. "Fiscal policymaking is less robust in the U.S. than in many Aaa-rated peers, and another shutdown would be further evidence of this weakness," Moody's said in a statement. The economic impact of a shutdown would likely be limited and short-lived, with the most direct economic impact caused by lower government spending. Of course, the longer the shutdown lasts, the more negative its impact would be on the broader economy, said Moody's.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Moody's, Fitch, William Foster, Foster, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Sharon Singleton, Josie Kao Organizations: U.S . Capitol, REUTERS, U.S, Reuters, P Global, Aaa, Republican Party, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Washington, Aaa, Moody's

REUTERS/Bianca Flowers Acquire Licensing RightsSept 22 (Reuters) - Jeffrey Aznavorian has already cut output about 6% at his small auto parts factory outside Detroit due to the United Auto Workers strike. If the strike expands, it would only be a matter of weeks before some smaller suppliers faltered, said Marick Masters, a professor of business at Wayne State University. He estimates 30% of smaller suppliers carry too much debt to survive a long strike. Other measures also point to a supply base that was strained even before the strike. RapidRatings calculates "core health scores" for privately owned auto parts companies - based on a 100-point scale - which looks at their returns, cost structures, and capital structure.

Persons: Bianca Flowers, Jeffrey Aznavorian, Pittsburgh steelmaker, Laurie Harbour, Marick, James Gellert, Gellert, Timothy Aeppel, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Ford UAW, Detroit, REUTERS, United Auto Workers, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, GM, Anderson Economic, Auto, CIE, Spain’s CIE Automotive, . Steel, Pittsburgh, Reuters, Harbour, Inc, Wayne State University, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, Detroit, Michigan, Midwest, Illinois, Southfield , Michigan, Plymouth , Michigan

The risk, they have warned, is that large basis positions could once again exacerbate vulnerabilities in the U.S. bond market, which is a linchpin of the world's financial system. "These basis positions with these transformations are going to be a part of the equation because it's a necessary evil to get the capital to meet the demand." Higher supply comes as liquidity in Treasuries has been problematic for most of last year, partially due to rising volatility spurred by the Fed's aggressive rate hiking cycle. But Richard Chambers, global head of repo trading and global co-head of short macro trading at Goldman Sachs, told the trading forum on Thursday that the repo market was now more efficient. "We will have more levered investors buying Treasuries into 2024 and so demand for leverage in Treasuries will increase," he said.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, Janet, Yellen, Jason Granet, Mark Wendland, ”, Richard Chambers, Goldman Sachs, Davide Barbuscia, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Carolina Mandl, Laura Matthews, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Bank for International Settlements, Treasuries, Treasury, BNY Mellon, DRW Holdings, Reuters, Goldman, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Treasuries

The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. Broadly speaking, higher rates for longer could be an unwelcome turn of events for stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 lost 0.94% on Wednesday, while the yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflect interest rate expectations, hit 17-year highs. Futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate late Wednesday showed traders were betting the central bank would ease monetary policy by a total of nearly 60 basis points next year, bringing interest rates to about 4.8%. Signs of wobbling growth could bolster the case for the central bank to cut rates far sooner than it had projected.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Josh Jamner, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, …, David Norris, John Madziyire, ”, Norris, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Herbert Lash, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S ., Clearbridge Investments, TD Securities USA, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

☆ WSJ's Nick Timiraos explains why the Fed could be an obstacle to a soft economic landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWSJ's Nick Timiraos explains why the Fed could be an obstacle to a soft economic landingNick Timiraos, The Wall Street Journal chief economics correspondent, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign, the obstacles standing in the way to achieve a soft landing,

Persons: Nick Timiraos Organizations: Street Journal

The trades - typically the domain of macro hedge funds with relative value strategies - consist of selling a futures contract, buying Treasuries deliverable into that contract with repurchase agreement (repo) funding, and delivering them at contract expiry. "Cash-futures basis positions could again be exposed to stress during broader market corrections," Fed economists said in an Aug. 30 note. Separately, in a Sept. 8 note that looked among other things at hedge funds' Treasury exposures, Fed economists said there was a risk of a rapid unwind of basis trade positions in case of higher repo funding costs. "However, the approach they take may not be straightforward as the Fed does not have direct regulatory oversight over hedge funds," he said. "Cash futures basis trades are vulnerable to two risks: higher margin costs on the futures short and higher financing costs on the cash long position," Barclays said in a note on Tuesday.

Persons: Steven Zeng, Deutsche's Zeng, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, repo, Futures Trading Commission, Deutsche Bank, U.S, Barclays, Thomson Locations: U.S, Treasuries

The company logo of Chinese developer Country Garden is pictured at the Shanghai Country Garden Center in Shanghai, China August 9, 2023. It has around $14.8 billion worth of debt due within 12 months, while its cash levels are around $13.8 billion. Country Garden declined to comment. Despite those measures, China's new home prices fell for the fourth month in August, according to a private survey on Friday, as the property debt crisis kept confidence at a low ebb. "Country Garden will probably make full use of the grace periods…it still looks challenging for them to generate enough cash for the upcoming payments, both onshore and offshore," said Ting Meng, a senior credit strategist at ANZ.

Persons: Aly, Edward Al, Ting Meng, Benjamin Bennett, they've, Xie Yu, Davide Barbuscia, Sumeet Chatterjee, Muralikumar Organizations: Shanghai Country Garden, REUTERS, HONG KONG, Country Garden Holdings, HK, Columbia, U.S, Country Garden, ANZ, General Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG, Country, Hong Kong, New York

REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsSept 5 (Reuters) - A post Labor-day rush of bond issuance by U.S. investment-grade-rated companies added renewed pressure on long-end U.S. Treasuries, as some investors switch to buying top-rated corporate debt offering higher yields than those on government bonds. Investors told Reuters they expect anywhere between $100 billion and $150 billion in new bond issuance this month. Ten-year Treasury bond yields were last about nine basis points above Friday's market closing, at 4.27% from 4.180%, and 30-year yields similarly climbed about 9 bps to 4.38% from 4.285% on Friday. Other factors have also contributed to the selloff, from higher government bond supply to rising concerns around U.S. debt sustainability, as highlighted by Fitch’s downgrade of U.S. debt last month. "For right now, it’s just all about supply, and I think that’s what’s pushing yields higher," he said.

Persons: Florence Lo, Gennadiy Goldberg, Tom di Galoma, it’s, Philip Morris, Matt Tracy, Davide Barbuscia Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Financing, Investors, Reuters, Fed, ICE, TD Securities USA, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase, Tuesday's, Unilever Capital Corp, Philip Morris International, Volkswagen, Thomson Locations: U.S

The BlackRock logo is pictured outside their headquarters in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., May 25, 2021. "We prefer short-term government bonds over credit," the institute, an arm of BlackRock (BLK.N), the world's largest asset manager, said in a note. "We go underweight high quality credit on a strategic view of five years and longer and trim our overall underweight to sovereign bonds." "We think high quality credit offers limited compensation for any potential hit to returns from wider spreads and sensitivity to interest rate swings," the institute said. "To turn positive on long-term bonds, we would need to see term premium rise much more or think market expectations of future policy rates are too high.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Davide Barbuscia, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, BlackRock Investment, ICE, Thomson Locations: BlackRock, Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

REUTERS/Jordan Vonderhaar Acquire Licensing RightsAug 31 (Reuters) - Even a robot invasion can't beat a slowing economy. Robot sales boomed through the pandemic, as producers scrambled to use the machines to churn out badly needed goods. Burnstein added that A3 expects the softness in robot orders to continue until the fourth quarter or early next year. In the past, they were concentrated in auto factories and their suppliers, which still make up a large share of all robot orders. Since construction projects vary in size and complexity, he said, there are spells when the robot isn't needed at all.

Persons: Jordan Vonderhaar, Nancy Kleitsch, Kleitsch, Jeff Burnstein, Burnstein, Aaron Anderson, Anderson, Timothy Aeppel, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, Association for Advancing Automation, Commerce Department, Reuters, Labor Department, Thomson Locations: San Antonio , Texas, U.S, North America, Phoenix, Concord , California

Stocks - which have wobbled in August as rising bond yields threatened to dull the allure of equities - were little changed with the S&P 500 up 0.22%. REVIVING RECESSION WORRIESSome investors were worried that higher rates could weigh on growth and increase the chances of a recession next year. Such a scenario, in theory, would force the Fed to cut rates, pulling bond yields lower. But while risks remained that long-term bond yields could move higher, he was looking to extend the duration of his portfolio. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia and David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, John Williams, Ann Saphir, Powell, ”, Cindy Beaulieu, Jackson, “ Powell, Anders Persson, Mike Sewell, Rowe Price, Josh Emanuel, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Fed, Kansas, Fed, REUTERS, Kansas City, Financial, Treasury, Investors, Futures, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S

Some analysts warn that rising yields could push up borrowing costs, causing the economic slowdown investors are now betting against. The key question is how much further bear steepening the market needs to see for "investors to become nervous," he added. In 2018, for instance, the curve shifted to a bear-steepening dynamic as the economy appeared to hold up well despite the Fed's tightening. Risks remain, however, warned Jonathan Cohn, head of US Rates Desk Strategy at Nomura Securities International, including the pain for companies refinancing debt at higher rates and China's weakening growth. BEARISH BETSSome investors are worried that Powell’s speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, could trigger a short squeeze.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Michael Harris, Gennadiy Goldberg, Alfonso Peccatiello, Peccatiello, Jonathan Cohn, Powell, Harris, Eoin Walsh, Jim Cahn, Cahn, Michael Edwards, Weiss, there'd, Edwards, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Megan Davies, Mark Porter Organizations: Treasury, Futures, Quest Partners, Securities USA, Fed, Nomura Securities International, Investors, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Carolina

NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - A recent spike in U.S. bond yields has come alongside muted expectations for inflation, a sign to some bond fund managers that economic resilience and high bond supply are now playing a larger role than second-guessing the Federal Reserve. Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, tend to rise in an inflationary environment because inflation erodes the value of a future bond payout. But while higher moves in bond yields in the last several months were often driven by investors pricing in higher interest rates as the Fed sought to tame rising inflation, expectations on the pace of price rises have moved lower in recent weeks. Long-term Treasury yields account for factors such as inflation expectations and term premiums, or what investors demand to be compensated for the risk of holding long-term paper. A recent string of strong economic data despite higher interest rates has strengthened investor beliefs that interest rates will remain higher for longer, even if inflation is tamed.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Bond, ”, Calvin Norris, John Madziyire, Anthony Woodside, “, Aegon's Norris, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Anna Driver Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Aegon Asset Management, Investors, Bank of Japan, BMO Capital Markets, Treasury, Securities, Reuters, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, America

NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Deflationary pressures in China could spill over into global markets, which is potentially near-term good news for Western central banks as they seek to curb inflation, U.S. asset manager PIMCO said on Wednesday. The economic deterioration could moderate inflation in China and, increasingly, also in the markets served by Chinese goods, PIMCO Economist and Managing Director Tiffany Wilding said in a note. "Deflation, weakening trade, collapsing loan demand, and a paralysed property sector dampen our risk appetite," it said. "For China, the risk of more pronounced deflationary pressure depends crucially on the government’s policies in the coming months," said Wilding. "Adequate fiscal stimulus to boost domestic demand may reaccelerate inflation, while delayed or inadequate policy measures could lead to a downward spiral," she said.

Persons: PIMCO, Tiffany Wilding, “, spillovers, Wilding, Davide Barbuscia, Mark Potter Organizations: PIMCO, Oxford Economics, Zhongrong International Trust Co, Thomson Locations: China, Western

For investors who had expected more economic strife, sticking to those calls has become increasingly difficult. "It's going to take longer for rates to rally," said John Madziyire, senior portfolio manager and head of U.S. Treasuries and TIPS at Vanguard Fixed Income Group. "Recession or no recession, we think the probability of higher-for-longer interest rates is far greater than the likelihood of near-term cuts," credit investment firm Oaktree Capital said in a recent note. A re-acceleration in inflation could lead to higher rates than the market has priced in. Some are navigating the uncertainty by combining exposure to higher-yielding short term bonds with long-term bonds in case of a downturn.

Persons: –, Felipe Villarroel, John Madziyire, Oaktree Capital, Danielle Poli, Anthony Woodside, Woodside, Stephen Dover, Chip Hughey, Davide Barbuscia, Richard Chang Organizations: Bond, Federal Reserve, TwentyFour Asset Management, Bank of, Fitch's U.S, Treasury, Oaktree, Fund, Reuters, U.S, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, Truist Advisory Services, Vanguard, Thomson Locations: U.S, Oaktree

Edward Marrinan, macro credit strategy desk analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities America, added: "Credit risk at this point is mispriced." The move prompted a sell-off in equities and slight widening in corporate credit spreads. The average investment-grade bond spreads as of on Thursday were just a few basis points wider than the tightest levels touched this year in July and 16 basis points tighter from January. Junk-bond spreads are 98 basis points inside January levels. "With market consensus now expecting a soft landing, the credit markets are arguably underpricing default risk," BMO’s Krieter said.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Cindy Beaulieu, Edward Marrinan, Moody's, Daniel Krieter, Krieter, Marrinan, Manuel Hayes, Hayes, BMO’s Krieter, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Davide Barbuscia, Paritosh Bansal, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: NYSE, American Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Investors, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, London, Insight Investment, Informa, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

Fitch told the U.S. Treasury about its ultimate decision about 24 hours ahead of the announcement. Fitch's recent talks with the Treasury did not include the actual downgrade decision, Francis said, because it had not yet been made by the agency's ratings committee. On Monday, Fitch's credit committee met, made a decision, and Treasury officials received the Fitch press release of the downgrade. "The timing of the committee was pure coincidence," Francis told Reuters on Friday, noting the date was set weeks ago. Debt ceiling votes have been "acrimonious for decades," one U.S. official complained, referring to a long history of standoffs.

Persons: Dylan Martinez WASHINGTON, Biden, Donald Trump, Harvard's Larry Summers, Jamie Dimon, Fitch, Joe Biden, Richard Francis, Fitch's, Francis, Mark Sobel, Sobel, Alexander Hamilton, David Lawder, Davide Barbuscia, Heather Timmons, Alistair Bell Organizations: Fitch, REUTERS, White House, Reuters, U.S . Treasury, Republicans, Congress, U.S, AAA, Treasury, Social Security, Capitol, Trump, longtime Treasury, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, U.S

In the past, he would have swiftly chopped 10% of the workers that run his bag-making machines, or about 15 people. Faced with the tightest job market in decades, many have become less trigger-happy with layoffs, even in the face of a cooling economy. But, so far, the economy has continued to grow, albeit more slowly, and the job market has powered onward. Reuters Graphics'HOLD ONTO YOUR LABOR FORCE'At least one major company has adopted a formal strategy of hoarding workers. "I don't think it's the case that many businesses are holding onto workers who are idle," she said.

Persons: Kevin Kelly, Nathan Frandino, Kelly, Alan H, Shaw, they're, Dana Peterson, Peterson, Arnold Kamler, Julia Pollak, Thomas Simons, We're, Timothy Aeppel, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Emerald Packaging, REUTERS, Packaging, Employers, Federal Reserve, Labor, Reuters Graphics, Norfolk, Reuters, U.S, Survey, Labor Department, Conference Board, Business Council, Kent International, Jefferies, Thomson Locations: California, Union City , California, U.S, San Francisco, Norfolk Southern, downturns, Atlanta, New York, South Carolina, rehire, Los Angeles

In a July update of its credit opinion on the sovereign rating, Moody's maintained its Aaa rating and stable outlook, which means likelihood of a new rating over the medium term is low. Moody's did not offer comment beyond referring Reuters to its latest credit opinion, which it said reflected its latest thinking on the U.S. sovereign credit profile. In Moody's view, these factors counterbalance "lower fiscal strength," which the agency expects will weaken. In its latest credit opinion, Moody's said it had confidence in the strength of U.S. institutions, adding that monetary and macroeconomic policies have "a long history of effectiveness." It said, however, that other aspects of policymaking are "less robust than in many Aaa-rated peers," particularly when it comes to fiscal policy effectiveness.

Persons: Fitch, Lawrence Gillum, Ryan Detrick, Moody’s, it’s, Moody's, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Diane Craft Organizations: Moody's Corporation, AAA, U.S, OECD, LPL, Carson Group, Aaa, Reuters, TRIPLE, U.S ., Treasuries, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York, U.S, United States, Australia, Canada, Fitch

That deterioration, as well as increased polarization in the country’s political climate, was visible in the Jan. 6 insurrection, which the agency highlighted in meetings with the Treasury ahead of the downgrade. "It was something that we highlighted because it just is a reflection of the deterioration in governance, it's one of many," he said. "You have the debt ceiling, you have Jan. 6. The latest debt ceiling suspension, agreed in June, will last until early 2025, when another political debate around the borrowing limit is likely, he added. "That would just highlight the real political polarization and the kind of deterioration in governance that we've already noted ... to have a two-notch downgrade would be pretty harsh."

Persons: Donald Trump, Leah Millis, Fitch, Richard Francis, Francis, Janet Yellen, Jared Bernstein, “, we've, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Fitch, Reuters, AAA, Republicans, Hearst, Standard, Treasury, CNBC, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, States, United States

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