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Both hiked interest rates a quarter point - but only the ECB said more was to come. Without committing to it, the Fed signalled a pause in its 13-month, five percentage point tightening campaign. Money markets do partly agree with Lagarde - seeing one more quarter point rate rise in the pipeline. They now see the so-called terminal ECB rate at 3.5% in September - still a chunky 175 bps below peak Fed rates if you assume that at 5.25%, those have now reached the end of the line. "The extent of policy tightening delivered by the ECB to date is already sufficient to cause a recession," said Fidelity International's Anna Stupnytska.

"We are not pausing - that is very clear," ECB President Christine Lagarde told a press conference. NOT FED DEPENDENTShe also dismissed the notion that the ECB would have to pause if its U.S. counterpart did so, saying the ECB was "not Fed-dependent". The German 10-year yield , the euro zone benchmark, fell as much as 7 basis points to a one-month low of 2.18%. "In a nod to the hawks, the ECB hinted at 'future decisions' in the plural," Holger Schmieding at Berenberg said. Firms in the services sector especially have complained of labour shortages, suggesting that more wage pressures could come this summer.

A 25 basis point move, a slowdown after three straight 50 basis point hikes, appears the most likely outcome, although the bigger increase is still a possibility at what is almost certainly not the end of a historic tightening cycle. Markets see an 80% chance of a 25 basis point move while the vast majority of economists polled by Reuters were also betting on the smaller hike. Supporting a possible ECB downshift, the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and signalled it may pause further increases. At 3%, the ECB's deposit rate is already restricting economic activity, and underlying inflation has also stopped rising - at least for the time being. The ECB will announce its policy decision at 1215 GMT and Lagarde will hold a press conference at 1245 GMT.

☆ Morning Bid: Purchasing managers of the world, diverge
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Softening second-tier data in the U.S. on Thursday put a bid under bonds for the first time in a few weeks, while bitcoin was clobbered. Purchasing manager's index data are the next set of economic figures due as market focus flings back on growth. British (GBPMMF=ECI) and euro zone (EUPMMF=ECI) manufacturing surveys are seen stuck in contraction territory. European and British services PMIs are seen steady and staying in expansion mode. British retail sales are expected to fall, adding up to a somewhat confounding picture.

☆ Exclusive: ECB policymakers converging on 25-bps rate hike in May - sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The ECB has raised rates by at least 50 basis points each at six successive meetings -- the fastest pace on record -- to fight stubbornly high inflation. The sources said that some are advocating no change in May - mostly the same Southern European policymakers who did not support last month's 50 basis point increase, while others - also a small group - argue for another 50 basis point hike. Klaas Knot of the Netherlands said it was unclear whether 50 basis points would be needed or if 25 was enough. Slovakia's Peter Kazimir said the ECB could perhaps slow down the pace of its increases while Austria's Robert Holzmann meanwhile backed another 50 basis point move. Markets currently price 25 basis point hikes each in May and June, while a third such increase is fully priced in by September.

☆ Exclusive: ECB policymakers converging on 25-bps rate hike in May , sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ UniCredit CEO expects ECB to take 'balanced approach' on rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

MILAN, April 6 (Reuters) - The head of Italy's UniCredit (CRDI.MI) expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to take a 'balanced approach' on interest rate hikes, acting on the basis of economic data as they become available given the high level of uncertainty. "I believe that in the end the (European) Central Bank will take a balanced approach, probably raising rates by more than what 'doves' would like, but by less than what 'hawks' would," CEO Andrea Orcel was quoted as saying by Il Messaggero daily on Thursday. Orcel added he expected the ECB's deposit rate could peak in the summer. Reporting by Federico Maccioni, editing by Valentina ZaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB's De Guindos warns of broad risks in financial sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Giancarlo Navach | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

CERNOBBIO, Italy, April 1 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank (ECB) is monitoring current market tensions closely and will act to preserve price and financial stability in the euro area, ECB vice-president Luis de Guindos said in a speech on Saturday. "...In our view, vulnerabilities in the financial system prevail in the non-bank financial sector, which grew fast and increased its risk-taking during the low interest rate environment," De Guindos told the Ambrosetti business forum in northern Italy. Reporting by Giancarlo Navach Writing by Keith Weir, editing by Gavin JonesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB to look for signs of stress but banking crisis unlikely
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary Lagarde says rate hikes are just starting to biteLane says full-blown banking crisis is unlikelyFRANKFURT, March 22 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will watch for signs of stress in bank lending from the ongoing financial turmoil but a full-blown crisis is unlikely for now, the ECB's top brass said on Wednesday. But that's pretty much a tail scenario at this point in time," Lane told a conference on Wednesday. "For inflationary pressures to ease, it is important that our monetary policy works robustly in the restrictive direction," she said. Lane said he expected core prices to ease over time as lower fuel costs filter through to other sectors. Reporting By Francesco Canepa and Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Toby Chopra and Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB to watch bank rates for signs of stress, Lagarde says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, March 22 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank's interest rate increases are just starting to take effect on the economy but their transmission may become stronger as a result of the banking turmoil, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday. Lagarde said the ECB's actions to raise borrowing costs may be magnified if banks become more risk averse and start demanding higher rates when lending -- likely implying the central bank would need to increase its own rates by less. "For inflationary pressures to ease, it is important that our monetary policy works robustly in the restrictive direction," she said. The ECB has increased the rate it pays on bank deposits by a record-breaking 350 basis points to 3% since July and financial markets expect a further increase to 3.5% later this year. Reporting By Francesco Canepa and Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Toby Chopra and Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Goldman Sachs, other banks expect smaller hike from ECB in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Subhadeep Chakravarty | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 17 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and at least two other banks expect the European Central Bank to deliver a smaller quarter-point hike in May, as it grapples with stress in the banking sector and high core inflation. Goldman's terminal rate forecast for the ECB now stands at 3.5%, down from 3.75% expected previously when it forecasted a 50-bps raise in May. For Morgan Stanley, a smaller May hike expectation leaves the peak rate forecast at 3.75% by July, down from 4% expected earlier. The changes in forecast follow the ECB's decision on Thursday to press ahead with a 50-bps hike in its deposit facility rate, taking it to 3%. Traders see the ECB rate peaking at around 3.23% by September or October.

☆ Goldman Sachs and other banks expect smaller hike from ECB in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Subhadeep Chakravarty | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 17 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs and two other banks expect the European Central Bank to deliver a smaller quarter-point hike in May as it grapples with stress in the banking sector and high core inflation. Goldman earlier expected the ECB to deliver a 50 bps hike in May. The Wall Street bank's terminal rate forecast now stands at 3.5%, down from 3.75% previously. Traders see the ECB rate peaking at around 3.23% by September or October. Meanwhile, J.P.Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Swedish Bank SEB expect the ECB to deliver a 50 bps hike in May but warned of downside risks to their forecasts given current market volatility and inflation remaining well above the central bank's target.

☆ Silicon Valley Bank collapse: What you need to know now
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

March 14 (Reuters) - U.S. bank stocks jumped on Tuesday, recovering some ground after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) and Signature Bank (SBNY.O) triggered heavy selling by investors who were already anxious about the impact on lenders of rising interest rates. Senator Elizabeth Warren called on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to recuse himself from an internal review of recent bank failures, saying his actions "directly contributed" to them. * Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germans should not have major concerns and that regulators had learned lessons from the global financial crisis in 2008. MARKETS* U.S. regional bank shares bounced, with First Republic Bank (FRC.N) up 42.3% at $44.40 a share, a day after touching a record low of $17.53. * Global shares turned higher, ending a five-session rout, as U.S. inflation data bolstered bets on a smaller interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week.

☆ Euro zone factory output returned to growth in February -PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

S&P Global's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dipped to 48.5 in February from January's 48.8, in line with a preliminary reading but still below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. That healing of supply chain strains led to another sharp diminishing of the cost burden faced by factories. The input prices index slumped to 50.9 from 56.3 in January, its lowest reading since September 2020. However, the output prices index remained high. "Although factory selling prices continued to rise sharply, albeit with the rate of increase easing to a two-year low, this in part reflects the usual lagged effect of changes in costs feeding through to output prices," Williamson said.

☆ Unexpected inflation jump adds to ECB headache
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, jumped to its highest level since 2011 at 2.66% as traders ramped up bets that ECB rates will peak around 4% at year-end. Expectations for the peak in ECB rates have risen by over 40 basis points this month on fears that inflation will be more persistent than expected, particularly for core goods that exclude volatile fuel and food prices. Some investors even think there is a risk of the ECB raising rates by more than 50 basis points in March, despite its explicit guidance for the move. "The February data shows that French inflation has not reached its peak yet," ING economist Charlotte de Montpellier said. In Spain, core inflation also accelerated, adding to the ECB's worries that price growth is becoming persistent.

"Markets are priced for perfection," Schnabel, the head of the ECB's market operations, told Bloomberg. Money markets now show investors betting on a peak ECB rate at around 3.75% by late summer, up from levels around 3.4% earlier this month, as a string of hawkish ECB comments in recent days unwound earlier bets. He and fellow board member Fabio Panetta said the impact of many of the ECB's rate hikes so far had yet to be felt by the economy, with the latter calling for "small steps" going forward. The ECB raised rates by 50 basis points this month and pre-announced another increase of the same size for March 16. But it kept an open mind about future moves, with most policymakers expecting another rate hike in May.

☆ ECB's Panetta calls for small rate hikes as inflation falls
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - The European Central bank should start raising its interest rates in smaller increments and avoid committing to future moves as inflation in the euro zone falls, ECB board member Fabio Panetta said on Thursday. "With rates now moving into restrictive territory, it is the extent and duration of monetary policy restriction that matters," Panetta told an event in London. Financial markets expect the ECB to increase the rate it pays on bank deposits to at least 3.5% by the summer, from 2.5% currently. Panetta also predicted that core inflation, which has become the key variable in the ECB's debate, "would eventually follow" headline inflation in falling and there was no evidence of price expectations getting out of control despite rising wages. He also called for a "a measured approach" to the ECB's unwinding of its bond holdings, which Knot and Nagel, among others, want to accelerate.

☆ Euro zone inflation could fall faster than thought, ECB's De Cos says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MADRID, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation could fall faster than earlier thought given a host of positive developments in recent months but past price hikes and a tight labour market could still exert upward pressure on underlying prices in the near term, European Central Bank policymaker Pablo Hernandez de Cos said on Wednesday. "Recent data on euro area inflation and some of its key determinants are somewhat encouraging, but the overall situation still requires caution", De Cos said in a speech posted on the webpage of the Bank of Spain. He also mentioned the possible effects of the Chinese reopening, the resilience of the euro area economy and the transmission of ECB monetary policy decisions. "All these will have to be assessed as part of the full projections exercise under way in the run-up to our March meeting," De Cos said. Reporting by Jesús Aguado; Editing by Balazs KoranyiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB lays out balance sheet run-off, will further favour green firms
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The ECB is laying out details after it announced in December it would run bonds off its balance sheet at an average pace of 15 billion euros per month from March through June. The ECB will allocate proceeds remaining after the rundown proportionally to upcoming maturities across its public sector, corporate, covered bond and asset-backed security portfolios, it said in a statement. For its public sector holdings, it will reinvest in proportion to upcoming redemptions by each country and across governments versus supranational debt, the bank said. The ECB said it will also would skew remaining corporate debt reinvestments "more strongly" towards companies with a better climate performance, enhancing a process it first started in October. By raising longer-term borrowing costs, the winding-down of its bond portfolio should tighten financial conditions, making it more expensive for firms and governments to borrow.

This would take the rate the ECB pays on bank deposits to the highest level since November 2008, after a steady climb from a record low of -0.5% in July. Reuters GraphicsThe ECB said in December that rates would be increased "at a steady pace" until it is happy inflation is heading back down to its 2% target. BNP Paribas also thought the ECB might take out the reference to a "steady pace" of rate hikes or offset it so that a 50-basis-point increase would be "not predetermined (but) still a possible outcome". And an ECB survey showed banks were tightening access to credit by the most since the 2011 debt crisis - usually the harbinger of lower growth and slowing inflation. To some observers, this meant the ECB would be wise not to commit to any future policy move.

☆ Major central banks set to signal interest rate glide path in crucial week for monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

A screen displays the Fed rate announcement as a trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), November 2, 2022. Brendan McDermid | ReutersThe U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England are all expected to hike interest rates once again this week, as they make their first policy announcements of 2023. Economists will be watching policymakers' rhetoric closely for clues on the path of future rate hikes this year, as the three major central banks try to engineer a soft landing for their respective economies without allowing inflation to regain momentum. The market is now pricing in this eventuality, but the key question is what the FOMC will indicate about further rate hikes in 2023. "Fewer hikes might be needed if the recent weakening in business confidence captured by the survey data depresses hiring and investment more than we think, substituting for additional rate hikes," Mericle said.

"That would be a problem for any central bank." TUG OF WARLagarde's commitment also puzzled ECB-watchers because the central bank had previously said it wouldn't make such public predictions - known as forward guidance - anymore, but instead take each decision based on incoming data. This of course leads to a tug of war between the ECB and the markets on the narrative," he added. ING's Brzeski said the ECB lacked a clear thought-leader on its Governing Council who could steer markets like Lagarde's predecessor, Mario Draghi. "The cacophony of diverging voices and the lack of clarity on who is the leading voice keeps hurting the ECB," Brzeski said.

☆ ECB's Holzmann expects at least two rate increases in H1 -newspaper
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

VIENNA, Jan 20 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymaker Robert Holzmann expects at least two interest-rate increases of 50 basis points each in the first half of this year, he said in an interview with Austrian newspaper Die Presse published on Friday. Holzmann said that while headline inflation has eased, core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, had not. He said that as long as core inflation had not fallen significantly interest rates would have to keep rising. "Core inflation is currently at more than 5%, which is still two-and-a-half times our target," he said. Reporting by Francois Murphy; Additional reporting by Frank Siebelt in Frankfurt; Editing by Hugh LawsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

There's a reason investors are warned not to fight the Fed, but sometimes they still need to learn the hard way. When the second most powerful central bank in the world is standing shoulder to shoulder with the Fed too, markets are bound to get a bloody nose. And this is the economy into which central banks around the world are still jacking up interest rates? Annual core CPI inflation is expected to inch up to 3.7% in November from 3.6% in October, marking a fresh 41-year high. Will there be a Santa rally, even a mini one, in the last week before Christmas?

☆ ECB to start offloading bond holdings in March
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It will do so by not reinvesting part of its maturing bond holdings. More detailed parameters for the reduction will be provided at its February meeting, the ECB said. "The asset purchase programme (APP) portfolio will decline at a measured and predictable pace," the ECB said in a statement. The 3.3 trillion euros of purchases made under the APP account for the bulk of the ECB's debt holdings. Investors will now watch for further details expected at ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference at 1345 GMT news conference.

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