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Investors who took short positions in Tesla stock have made an $11.5 billion profit so far this year, according to Wall Street analytics firm S3 Partners, as Tesla shares lost about half their value. That’s a nearly 60% return on the $19.6 billion invested in short positions on Tesla this year. And it’s a nearly 180-degree reversal in how they did in 2021, when their short positions resulted in a combined $10.3 billion loss, after Tesla shares rose 50%. And let’s not forget the $40.7 billion loss short sellers suffered in 2020, when shares of Tesla climbed 743%. The problems for Tesla stock, and the gains for short sellers, actually began about a year ago.
September, meanwhile, is the worst month of average for stocks, with a 0.7% average decline. Gains would be welcomed by many investors after seeing the S&P 500 Index (.SPX) fall around 16% so far this year. Still, weighing on the market has been the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions to aggressively tighten interest rates to fight inflation. The average Santa rally has boosted the S&P 500 by 1.3% since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. The painful double-digit declines in both U.S. stocks and bonds, meanwhile, have made both asset classes more attractive for long-term investors, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.
Oil stocks have been huge winners this year, thanks to the spike in crude prices…which boosted sales and profits. For now, at least, energy investors are reaping the rewards. And there are also opportunities for investors looking for a little more risk…and potential reward. Finally, investors who’ve bet against the stock market also can give thanks for this year’s volatility. PC giants Dell (DELL) and HP (HPQ) also report results this week.
While hedge fund Muddy Waters revealed a bet against payment processor dLocal , other short sellers appear to be eyeing several fintech companies. S3 Partners examined 66 stocks in the FINX fintech ETF for CNBC Pro and found $15.25 billion betting against the basket of stocks in total. Others might see structural headwinds for a company before it is fully reflected in the share price. Coinbase had a total of 27.53 million shares – or 18% of free-floating shares – betting against the share price. The fintech company, led by Twitter's co-founder Jack Dorsey, has seen its shares decline by 56.94% over this year.
It's a sign of how powerful this recent market rally has become. While long buying has been a factor in the rally, "I am seeing short covering recently as the market is surging," he told me. In the second week of November, he saw traders cover $22.1 billion in short bets on S & P 500 stocks. "It is now consensus the Fed will be almost done in the next few months, that China's zero Covid [policy] will be eased, so that is priced into the market," Johnston told me. "If you think the upside for stocks is only 4% [in the near future], you might as well buy a money market fund," Johnston said.
The stock's Monday volume, which stood at over 10 million shares after the close, far exceeded the 506,000 shares investors have shorted, he said. "There is no way today’s price move is due to a short squeeze, it is virtually all long buying pressure," Dusaniwsky said. Many meme stocks have been pounded this year as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, sapping investors’ appetite for risk. Shares of GameStop Corp (GME.N), which put meme stocks into the spotlight with its epic rally in 2021, are down 24% for the year to date while AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (AMC.N) has fallen 60%. "If that’s the case that would further tamp down Treasury yields and create a tailwind for equities."
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