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Search resuls for: "DeQuadros"


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The labor market has remained resilient despite the Federal Reserve's stiff interest rate increases, helping to keep consumer spending and the overall economy afloat. "That tectonic shift in consumer confidence from inflation worries to job concerns is coming though." The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 100.2, the lowest reading since July, from 102.2 in October. Though house prices have came off the record highs reached during the COVID-19 pandemic-driven housing market boom, they remain significantly high. A third report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed house prices increased 11.0% in the 12 months through September after advancing 12.0% in August.
"However, any potential recession could be short and shallow given the tight labor market and the hint that layoffs may not be as bad as feared." The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 100.2, the lowest reading since July, from 102.2 in October. Lower-income households have borne the brunt of inflation that, before October, was marked by annual consumer prices increasing at rates not seen since the early 1980s. Though house prices have came off the record highs reached during the COVID-19 pandemic-driven housing market boom, they remain significantly high. Tight supply will, however, likely keep a floor under house prices.
"While this could be interpreted as evidence of a softening labor market, we would caution against this. They were boosted by a 5,024 jump in California, likely reflecting the technology sector job cuts. Economists, however, did not expect the technology sector layoffs would be a major drag on the labor market and the overall economy. These so-called core capital goods orders decreased 0.8% in September. Shipments of core capital goods jumped 1.3% after dipping 0.1% in September.
But annual revisions to the data showed productivity much stronger in 2020 and 2021 than previously reported. Unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - increased at a 3.5% rate after accelerating at a pace of 8.9% in the second quarter. Unit labor costs advanced at a 6.1% rate from a year ago. Growth in unit labor costs was much slower than previously estimated in 2020 and 2021. Labor costs"Both productivity growth and labor cost growth may be understated," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.
Food prices increased 0.8%, with the cost of food at home advancing 0.7% amid rises in all six major grocery store food groups. The war in Ukraine also poses an upside risk to food prices. In the 12 months through September, the CPI increased 8.2% after rising 8.3% in August, decelerating for a third straight month. The so-called core CPI is being largely driven by the higher costs for rental accommodation. The core CPI jumped 6.6% in the 12 months through September, the most since August 1982, after rising 6.3% in August.
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