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The 10-year yield on Thursday afternoon stood at about 4.7%, some 18 basis points from the 16-year highs touched last week. “Every time the Fed pauses, yields come down, but the market is not convinced they’re quite there yet." There's plenty of evidence that financial conditions, which reflect the availability of credit in the economy, have tightened in recent months. Credit market spreads have widened as investors demand a higher yield on riskier assets, such as corporate bonds. Fed funds futures show investors pricing in a roughly 15% chance of the central bank's raising rates next month, from around 27% last week.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Leslie Falconio, they’re, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Mark Dowding, Goldman Sachs, Edward Al, Hussainy, Neuberger Berman, Jonathan Cohn, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, . Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, Dallas Fed, RBC Global Asset Management, Reuters, Treasury, Columbia, Nasdaq, Nomura Securities International, Thomson

Developers, financial advisers and bondholders said that could make debt restructuring terms much worse than expected earlier. DEFAULTING DEVELOPERSThe property sector accounts for roughly a quarter of the world's second-largest economy. That could trigger off one of the world's biggest debt restructuring exercises. However, a turnaround (in the property sector) may need more," said Chuanyi Zhou, Asia corporate analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, which holds Sunac's bonds. Chinese policymakers rolled out a range of support measures in late August and early September to revive the property sector.

Persons: Shimao, Chuanyi Zhou, Yuzhou, Edward Al, Clare Jim, Xie Yu, Davide Barbuscia, Sumeet Chatterjee, Kim Coghill Organizations: HONG KONG, JPMorgan, HK, Shimao, CIFI Holdings, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Developers, Reuters, Kaisa, Columbia, China Index Academy, Thomson Locations: HONG, China, Asia, Hong Kong, New York

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 1.2% at $1,854.10 per ounce. Among those is the potential of a rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

Persons: Brent, ”, Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Noel Randewich, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 0.9% at $1,849.40 per ounce. Among those is a potential rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

Persons: Brent, ”, Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Sylvest Wealth Management, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany

Jobs growth for September nearly doubled expectations as nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month, strengthening views that policymakers will need to keep interest rates elevated to cool inflation. Treasury yields move inversely to bond prices. “It’s quite a report,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. On the long end of the curve, 30-year yields surged above 5% hitting their highest since 2007. However, Craig Ellinger, head of Americas fixed income at UBS Asset Management, believes more rate increases could be in store.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Peter Cardillo, Jake Schurmeier, ” Alex McGrath, Tiffany Wilding, Craig Ellinger, Ellinger, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Stephen Culp, Sruthi Shankar, Ira Iosebashvili, Chizu Nomiyama, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Spartan Capital Securities, Harbor Capital, ADP, Fed, UBS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, Americas

☆ Soaring Treasury yields ignite turbulence throughout markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Because the $25-trillion Treasury market is considered the bedrock of the global financial system, soaring yields on U.S. government bonds have had wide-ranging effects. Higher Treasury yields can curb investors' appetite for stocks and other risky assets by tightening financial conditions as they raise the cost of credit for companies and individuals. With some Treasury maturities offering far above 5% to investors holding the bonds to term, rising yields have also dulled the allure of equities. Reuters GraphicsWith Treasury yields surging, credit market spreads have widened as investors demand a higher yield on riskier assets, such as corporate bonds. The MOVE index (.MOVE), a measure of expected volatility in U.S. Treasuries, has surged to a 4-month high, signaling expectations for continued Treasury market ructions.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, That's, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: United States Department of, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Global Research, Reuters, Traders, Reuters Graphics, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Silicon

So-called bond vigilantes - investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds, driving yields higher - were a feature of markets in the 1990s, when concerns over U.S. federal spending pushed Treasury yields to 8%. Strategist Ed Yardeni, who coined the bond vigilantes term in the early 1980s, has also chimed in. “The bond vigilantes have been challenging (Treasury Secretary Janet) Yellen’s policies by raising bond yields to levels that threaten to create a debt crisis,” he said in a Financial Times opinion piece on Wednesday. Famed bond investor Bill Gross, who co-founded Pacific Investment Management Co., said bond vigilantes will have a muted effect now given the Fed's larger role in markets. Bond investors "are rather powerless pawns in this interest rate chess game," he told Reuters by email.

Persons: Fitch, doesn't, Gene Tannuzzo, Jake Remley, Ed Yardeni, Janet, ”, Bill Gross, Greg Whiteley, Robert Tipp, David Randall, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Bond, Columbia, Treasury, Apollo, Treasury Department, Government, Social, Research, Management, “, Pacific Investment Management Co, Thomson Locations: Wall, Boston

☆ US government shutdown possible later this year but no impact on rating - Fitch
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A jogger runs by the U.S. Capitol as the deadline to avert a partial government shutdown approaches at the end of the day on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 30, 2023. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Credit rating agency Fitch said on Wednesday the ousting of U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy meant a government shutdown later this year was possible, although it would not affect its U.S. sovereign rating. "Given the fact that the House speaker was ousted right after the continuing resolution was agreed, we expect political brinkmanship around government funding negotiations will remain tense and a shutdown later this year can't be ruled out," Richard Francis, a senior director at Fitch, said in a podcast. A shutdown would not impact Fitch's rating as the country's "deterioration in governance" was already captured in Fitch's downgrade of the U.S. in August, Francis said. Reporting by Davide BarbusciaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ken Cedeno, Fitch, Kevin McCarthy, Richard Francis, Francis, Davide Barbuscia Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Fitch, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - A U.S. government shutdown would negatively impact the country's credit, credit rating agency Moody's said on Monday, a stern warning coming one month after Fitch downgraded the U.S. by one notch on the back of a debt ceiling crisis. Moody's has an "Aaa" rating for the U.S. government with a stable outlook - the highest creditworthiness it assigns to borrowers. "Fiscal policymaking is less robust in the U.S. than in many Aaa-rated peers, and another shutdown would be further evidence of this weakness," Moody's said in a statement. The economic impact of a shutdown would likely be limited and short-lived, with the most direct economic impact caused by lower government spending. Of course, the longer the shutdown lasts, the more negative its impact would be on the broader economy, said Moody's.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Moody's, Fitch, William Foster, Foster, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Sharon Singleton, Josie Kao Organizations: U.S . Capitol, REUTERS, U.S, Reuters, P Global, Aaa, Republican Party, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Washington, Aaa, Moody's

The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. Broadly speaking, higher rates for longer could be an unwelcome turn of events for stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 lost 0.94% on Wednesday, while the yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflect interest rate expectations, hit 17-year highs. Futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate late Wednesday showed traders were betting the central bank would ease monetary policy by a total of nearly 60 basis points next year, bringing interest rates to about 4.8%. Signs of wobbling growth could bolster the case for the central bank to cut rates far sooner than it had projected.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Josh Jamner, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, …, David Norris, John Madziyire, ”, Norris, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Herbert Lash, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S ., Clearbridge Investments, TD Securities USA, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

The risk, they have warned, is that large basis positions could once again exacerbate vulnerabilities in the U.S. bond market, which is a linchpin of the world's financial system. "These basis positions with these transformations are going to be a part of the equation because it's a necessary evil to get the capital to meet the demand." Higher supply comes as liquidity in Treasuries has been problematic for most of last year, partially due to rising volatility spurred by the Fed's aggressive rate hiking cycle. But Richard Chambers, global head of repo trading and global co-head of short macro trading at Goldman Sachs, told the trading forum on Thursday that the repo market was now more efficient. "We will have more levered investors buying Treasuries into 2024 and so demand for leverage in Treasuries will increase," he said.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, Janet, Yellen, Jason Granet, Mark Wendland, ”, Richard Chambers, Goldman Sachs, Davide Barbuscia, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Carolina Mandl, Laura Matthews, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Bank for International Settlements, Treasuries, Treasury, BNY Mellon, DRW Holdings, Reuters, Goldman, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Treasuries

The trades - typically the domain of macro hedge funds with relative value strategies - consist of selling a futures contract, buying Treasuries deliverable into that contract with repurchase agreement (repo) funding, and delivering them at contract expiry. "Cash-futures basis positions could again be exposed to stress during broader market corrections," Fed economists said in an Aug. 30 note. Separately, in a Sept. 8 note that looked among other things at hedge funds' Treasury exposures, Fed economists said there was a risk of a rapid unwind of basis trade positions in case of higher repo funding costs. "However, the approach they take may not be straightforward as the Fed does not have direct regulatory oversight over hedge funds," he said. "Cash futures basis trades are vulnerable to two risks: higher margin costs on the futures short and higher financing costs on the cash long position," Barclays said in a note on Tuesday.

Persons: Steven Zeng, Deutsche's Zeng, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, repo, Futures Trading Commission, Deutsche Bank, U.S, Barclays, Thomson Locations: U.S, Treasuries

The Federal Reserve has tamed inflation via interest rate increases, but it may need to take further action, he said. Still, optimism that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession is leading to a reopening of capital markets, Solomon said. "They're meaningful, they're going well," he said. "I do think these capital rules will have an impact on economic growth and that will affect large businesses and small businesses and their access to capital," Solomon said. JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) CEO Jamie Dimon blasted the proposed rules, telling investors on Monday that they could prompt lenders to pull back and stymie economic growth.

Persons: Mohamed Azakir, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Solomon, Treasuries, it's, Goldman, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Saeed Azhar, Lananh Nguyen, Davide Barbuscia, Sharon Singleton, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal Reserve, SoftBank Group Corp, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Beirut, Lebanon, U.S, New York

The company logo of Chinese developer Country Garden is pictured at the Shanghai Country Garden Center in Shanghai, China August 9, 2023. It has around $14.8 billion worth of debt due within 12 months, while its cash levels are around $13.8 billion. Country Garden declined to comment. Despite those measures, China's new home prices fell for the fourth month in August, according to a private survey on Friday, as the property debt crisis kept confidence at a low ebb. "Country Garden will probably make full use of the grace periods…it still looks challenging for them to generate enough cash for the upcoming payments, both onshore and offshore," said Ting Meng, a senior credit strategist at ANZ.

Persons: Aly, Edward Al, Ting Meng, Benjamin Bennett, they've, Xie Yu, Davide Barbuscia, Sumeet Chatterjee, Muralikumar Organizations: Shanghai Country Garden, REUTERS, HONG KONG, Country Garden Holdings, HK, Columbia, U.S, Country Garden, ANZ, General Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG, Country, Hong Kong, New York

☆ Possible Fed overtightening makes recession more likely than not, Deutsche Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Despite recent optimism around the U.S. economy, a recession remains a more likely scenario than a so-called "soft landing" as the Federal Reserve seeks to curb inflation by tightening monetary conditions, Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday. "Given that inflation peaked significantly above target, the Fed should err on the side of tightening too much, rather than too little," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note. "A US recession remains more likely than not." In contrast to Deutsche Bank's forecasts, several banks have in recent months revised or pushed out their earlier recession calls. Goldman Sachs analysts on Monday said they had further reduced their 12-month U.S. recession probability to 15% from a previous 20% estimate.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Davide Barbuscia, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, Thomson Locations: U.S

REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsSept 5 (Reuters) - A post Labor-day rush of bond issuance by U.S. investment-grade-rated companies added renewed pressure on long-end U.S. Treasuries, as some investors switch to buying top-rated corporate debt offering higher yields than those on government bonds. Investors told Reuters they expect anywhere between $100 billion and $150 billion in new bond issuance this month. Ten-year Treasury bond yields were last about nine basis points above Friday's market closing, at 4.27% from 4.180%, and 30-year yields similarly climbed about 9 bps to 4.38% from 4.285% on Friday. Other factors have also contributed to the selloff, from higher government bond supply to rising concerns around U.S. debt sustainability, as highlighted by Fitch’s downgrade of U.S. debt last month. "For right now, it’s just all about supply, and I think that’s what’s pushing yields higher," he said.

Persons: Florence Lo, Gennadiy Goldberg, Tom di Galoma, it’s, Philip Morris, Matt Tracy, Davide Barbuscia Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Financing, Investors, Reuters, Fed, ICE, TD Securities USA, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase, Tuesday's, Unilever Capital Corp, Philip Morris International, Volkswagen, Thomson Locations: U.S

The BlackRock logo is pictured outside their headquarters in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., May 25, 2021. "We prefer short-term government bonds over credit," the institute, an arm of BlackRock (BLK.N), the world's largest asset manager, said in a note. "We go underweight high quality credit on a strategic view of five years and longer and trim our overall underweight to sovereign bonds." "We think high quality credit offers limited compensation for any potential hit to returns from wider spreads and sensitivity to interest rate swings," the institute said. "To turn positive on long-term bonds, we would need to see term premium rise much more or think market expectations of future policy rates are too high.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Davide Barbuscia, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, BlackRock Investment, ICE, Thomson Locations: BlackRock, Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

Coins and banknotes of China's yuan are seen in this illustration picture taken February 24, 2022. Country Garden, China's largest private developer by sales, did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment. Lower deposit rates will partially offset various pressures on banks' narrowing net interest margins - a key gauge of profitability, said Nicholas Zhu, a banking analyst at Moody's. "The impact of the deposit rate cut is material, given that close to three-quarters of Chinese banks' liabilities are deposits," Zhu said. China's mortgage loans totalled 38.6 trillion yuan ($5.29 trillion) at the end of June, representing 17% of banks' total loan books.

Persons: Florence Lo, Nicholas Zhu, Zhu, Ziyi Tang, Ryan Woo, Wang Jing, Davide Barbuscia, Anne Marie Roantree Organizations: REUTERS, HK, Industrial, Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank Corp, Agricultural Bank of China, Reuters, Industrial Bank Co Ltd, China Bohai Bank Co Ltd, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China, Washington, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, New York, Lincoln

Stocks - which have wobbled in August as rising bond yields threatened to dull the allure of equities - were little changed with the S&P 500 up 0.22%. REVIVING RECESSION WORRIESSome investors were worried that higher rates could weigh on growth and increase the chances of a recession next year. Such a scenario, in theory, would force the Fed to cut rates, pulling bond yields lower. But while risks remained that long-term bond yields could move higher, he was looking to extend the duration of his portfolio. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia and David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, John Williams, Ann Saphir, Powell, ”, Cindy Beaulieu, Jackson, “ Powell, Anders Persson, Mike Sewell, Rowe Price, Josh Emanuel, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Fed, Kansas, Fed, REUTERS, Kansas City, Financial, Treasury, Investors, Futures, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S

Some analysts warn that rising yields could push up borrowing costs, causing the economic slowdown investors are now betting against. The key question is how much further bear steepening the market needs to see for "investors to become nervous," he added. In 2018, for instance, the curve shifted to a bear-steepening dynamic as the economy appeared to hold up well despite the Fed's tightening. Risks remain, however, warned Jonathan Cohn, head of US Rates Desk Strategy at Nomura Securities International, including the pain for companies refinancing debt at higher rates and China's weakening growth. BEARISH BETSSome investors are worried that Powell’s speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, could trigger a short squeeze.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Michael Harris, Gennadiy Goldberg, Alfonso Peccatiello, Peccatiello, Jonathan Cohn, Powell, Harris, Eoin Walsh, Jim Cahn, Cahn, Michael Edwards, Weiss, there'd, Edwards, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Megan Davies, Mark Porter Organizations: Treasury, Futures, Quest Partners, Securities USA, Fed, Nomura Securities International, Investors, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Carolina

REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG/AMSTERDAM, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Global investors fleeing China have one simple message for the country's leadership: put prudence aside for a short while, and start spending big. "At this point there is confusion and, as long as there is confusion, then there's lack of credibility and that means investors are more likely to stay away," said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors in London. Prominent examples are heavy Chinese government spending during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and its swift intervention during the 2015 market crash. But the subsidies need to come from local governments, many of which are cash-strapped or even drowning in debt and unable to pay their civil servants. The lack of concrete stimulus measures now is prompting many China watchers to downgrade their growth estimates for the next few years.

Persons: Aly, China's, Seema Shah, Chen Zhao, Zhao, hasn't, Frederik Ducrozet, Ducrozet, Principal's Shah, Yan Wang, Xi Jinping's, we’ve, Lorraine Tan, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Yoruk, Xie Yu, Ankur Banerjee, Tom Westbrook, Li Gu, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Global, Global Investors, policymaking Politburo, Pictet Wealth Management, Local, UBS Bank, Federated Hermes, Foreigners, Asia, Morningstar, Thomson Locations: Huangpu, Shanghai, China, HONG KONG, AMSTERDAM, London, Beijing, Japan, United States, New York, Amsterdam, Hong Kong, Singapore

NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - A recent spike in U.S. bond yields has come alongside muted expectations for inflation, a sign to some bond fund managers that economic resilience and high bond supply are now playing a larger role than second-guessing the Federal Reserve. Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, tend to rise in an inflationary environment because inflation erodes the value of a future bond payout. But while higher moves in bond yields in the last several months were often driven by investors pricing in higher interest rates as the Fed sought to tame rising inflation, expectations on the pace of price rises have moved lower in recent weeks. Long-term Treasury yields account for factors such as inflation expectations and term premiums, or what investors demand to be compensated for the risk of holding long-term paper. A recent string of strong economic data despite higher interest rates has strengthened investor beliefs that interest rates will remain higher for longer, even if inflation is tamed.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Bond, ”, Calvin Norris, John Madziyire, Anthony Woodside, “, Aegon's Norris, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Anna Driver Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Aegon Asset Management, Investors, Bank of Japan, BMO Capital Markets, Treasury, Securities, Reuters, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, America

For investors who had expected more economic strife, sticking to those calls has become increasingly difficult. "It's going to take longer for rates to rally," said John Madziyire, senior portfolio manager and head of U.S. Treasuries and TIPS at Vanguard Fixed Income Group. "Recession or no recession, we think the probability of higher-for-longer interest rates is far greater than the likelihood of near-term cuts," credit investment firm Oaktree Capital said in a recent note. A re-acceleration in inflation could lead to higher rates than the market has priced in. Some are navigating the uncertainty by combining exposure to higher-yielding short term bonds with long-term bonds in case of a downturn.

Persons: –, Felipe Villarroel, John Madziyire, Oaktree Capital, Danielle Poli, Anthony Woodside, Woodside, Stephen Dover, Chip Hughey, Davide Barbuscia, Richard Chang Organizations: Bond, Federal Reserve, TwentyFour Asset Management, Bank of, Fitch's U.S, Treasury, Oaktree, Fund, Reuters, U.S, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, Truist Advisory Services, Vanguard, Thomson Locations: U.S, Oaktree

NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Deflationary pressures in China could spill over into global markets, which is potentially near-term good news for Western central banks as they seek to curb inflation, U.S. asset manager PIMCO said on Wednesday. The economic deterioration could moderate inflation in China and, increasingly, also in the markets served by Chinese goods, PIMCO Economist and Managing Director Tiffany Wilding said in a note. "Deflation, weakening trade, collapsing loan demand, and a paralysed property sector dampen our risk appetite," it said. "For China, the risk of more pronounced deflationary pressure depends crucially on the government’s policies in the coming months," said Wilding. "Adequate fiscal stimulus to boost domestic demand may reaccelerate inflation, while delayed or inadequate policy measures could lead to a downward spiral," she said.

Persons: PIMCO, Tiffany Wilding, “, spillovers, Wilding, Davide Barbuscia, Mark Potter Organizations: PIMCO, Oxford Economics, Zhongrong International Trust Co, Thomson Locations: China, Western

☆ Analysis: Country Garden undone by promise to bring 5-star life to China's hinterland
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Clare Jim | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The company logo of Chinese developer Country Garden is pictured at the Shanghai Country Garden Center in Shanghai, China August 9, 2023. Smaller Chinese cities, whose revenues have already been deteriorating, could have a glut of unfinished homes, a social problem Beijing is trying to avoid. But as China's economy started slowing during and after its COVID-19 lockdowns, property sales in those areas has plummeted along with values of the homes themselves. Country Garden's sales in 2020 were 570.7 billion yuan ($78.22 billion), but that slipped to 357.5 billion yuan in 2022. Country Garden has nearly 1 million homes to complete, according to estimates from Japanese investment bank Nomura.

Persons: Aly, HONG KONG, Oscar Choi, Yang Huiyan, Lu Ting, Nomura, Gerwin Bell, Clare Jim, Liangping Gao, Matt Tracy, Davide Barbuscia, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: Shanghai Country Garden, REUTERS, Country, HK, National Bureau, Statistics, Partners Capital, China Evergrande, Oxford Economics, Nomura, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG, Beijing, Dezhou, Hong Kong, Asia, Washington, New York

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