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The inverted yield curve and The Conference Board's LEI are two indicators that inform his view. Instead, investors should be paying attention to indicators like the Treasury yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and money growth. Here's the yield curve. And the start of a recession typically comes a bunch of of months after the yield curve inverts. The yield curve didn't invert until less than a year ago.
Persons: Bob Doll, LEI, Doll, Wall, — Bank of America's Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli —, we're, Louis, It's, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Greg Boutle, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, — Bank of America's, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Louis Investors, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, BNP, Institute for Supply, Institute for Supply Management, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wells
Crossmark's Bob Doll: Valuations are stretched
  + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCrossmark's Bob Doll: Valuations are stretchedBob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments CIO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss why the market performance year-to-date hasn't created more of a chasing environment, when the market weakness will show itself, and more.
Persons: Bob Doll, hasn't Organizations: Global Investments
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFernandez: Markets are performing atypically, so you can't always rely on history as a guideVictoria Fernandez, Chief Market Strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, discusses the new trading month and where she's putting money to work.
Persons: Victoria Fernandez Organizations: Fernandez, Crossmark Global Investments
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLatest jobs data shows the Fed is going to have to stay high for longer, says BD8's Barbara DoranBarbara Doran, BD8 Capital Partners CIO, and Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments CIO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss the day's market action, the U.S. jobs report, and more.
Persons: Barbara Doran Barbara Doran, Bob Doll Organizations: BD8 Capital, Global Investments Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with John Mowrey, Adam Parker and Victoria FernandezVictoria Fernandez, Crossmark Global Investments chief market strategist, John Mowrey, NFJ Investment Group CIO, and Adam Parker, Trivariate Research, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the best risk to reward equation in the markets, the investors' current positioning, and more.
Persons: John Mowrey, Adam Parker, Victoria Fernandez Victoria Fernandez Organizations: Crossmark Global Investments, NFJ Investment, Research
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMega cap's resilient profit margins helped stocks recoup 2022 losses, says NFJ's John MowreyVictoria Fernandez, Crossmark Global Investments chief market strategist, John Mowrey, NFJ Investment Group CIO, and Adam Parker, Trivariate Research, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the best risk to reward equation in the markets, the investors' current positioning, and more.
Persons: NFJ's John Mowrey Victoria Fernandez, John Mowrey, Adam Parker Organizations: Crossmark Global Investments, NFJ Investment, Research
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're seeing people position for more volatility in back half of the year: WSJ's Gunjan BanerjiVictoria Fernandez, Crossmark Global Investments chief market strategist, and Gunjan Banerji, lead writer for The Wall Street Journal’s live markets coverage, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the recent market trends, whether a pullback is coming, and more.
Persons: WSJ's, Victoria Fernandez, Gunjan Banerji Organizations: Crossmark Global Investments
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCharles Schwab's Kevin Gordon on markets: Neither a bull nor a bear marketVictoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, Kevin Gordon, senior investment research manager at Charles Schwab, and Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the debate between a bull and bear market, the rising cost of debt, and lagging performance in staples and value names.
Persons: Charles Schwab's Kevin Gordon, Victoria Fernandez, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, Tom Lee Organizations: Crossmark Global Investments, Fundstrat Global Advisors
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCrossmark's Bob Doll: Now's the time to be cautious and 'take a little off' on ralliesBob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments CIO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss last Friday's jobs report, when the Federal Reserve's interest rate push will go through the economy, and more.
Persons: Bob Doll Organizations: Global Investments
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOptions trading shows some volatility in Disney, says Crossmark's Victoria FernandezVictoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss her expectations from Disney earnings.
Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 8%. Plus, when the Consumer Price Index is between 4-6% like it is now, it usually dictates that the S&P 500 trades at a lower multiple than it is. "For example, at the current S&P 500 P/E of 19, the earnings yield for stocks is 1 divided by 19, or ~5.2%. While he sees 15% downside in the months ahead, he also believes the S&P 500 will return to current levels by the end of 2023. Morgan StanleyWilson has also repeatedly warned of an earnings recession ahead, and recently said that the pullback in lending from banks strengthens his case.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFind cheap value stocks that have momentum, says Crossmark's Bob DollBob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments CIO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss finding growth and value stocks, Kevin McCarthy's debt ceiling comments, and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBanking crisis increases the probability of a recession, says Crossmark’s Bob DollBob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments CIO, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss why he suggests trimming mega-cap tech, why the Treasury market is a good place to be, and more.
Doll says the S&P 500 will drop to 3,400 if a mild recession unfolds. If a more normal recession (more severe than a mild downturn) comes, Doll said the index could fall to 3,000. The Fed's recession probability tracker based on the yield curve also now puts the odds of a recession at 57%. Subramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall as low as 3,000, a view shared by Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. If trouble hits, like Doll and much of Wall Street expects, stocks could extend their fall to new lows.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation is still way above what the Fed would like it to be, says Crossmark's Bob DollBob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments CIO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his thoughts on the bond market, inflation, and earnings estimates.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed's efforts to dampen demand aren't working, says Crossmark's Victoria FernandezVictoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss indicators of a mild recession, anticipations for Fed funds futures, and more.
Watch CNBC's full interview with Crossmark's Bob Doll
  + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Crossmark's Bob DollBob Doll, CIO at Crossmark Global Investments, joins 'TechCheck' to break down his top predictions for 2023.
Has inflation finally peaked?
  + stars: | 2023-01-08 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
But for investors, consumers and the Federal Reserve, inflation remains a major economic concern, just as it was in 2022. The hope is that inflation pressures will cool even more dramatically as the year progresses. We believe inflation peaked in June,” said Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer with Laffer Tengler Investments, in a report. Inflation impact on the Fed and housingWhat’s more, lower levels of inflation should allow the Fed to keep slowing its pace of interest rate hikes. But if inflation pressures continue to abate – and the Fed acknowledges that by pulling back on rate hikes – then the housing market may rebound.
Crossmark's Bob Doll sees another lackluster year ahead for stocks. 2022 was a rough year for the stock market, with the S&P 500 closing out the year down nearly 20%. "2023 is shaping up to be another challenging year for investors," Doll said in his yearly predictions note on Tuesday. The cumulative effect of tight policy will eventually catch up to the economy this year, and send it into a mild recession, Doll believes. Finally, given the muted returns he sees this year for the broader market, Doll expects active fund managers to beat passive index funds this year.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFernandez: A recession mid-next year will be driven by earnings and a resilient consumerVictoria Fernandez, Chief Market Strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, joins Worldwide Exchange to discuss how to position your portfolio.
Investors hoping that the stock market's rally since mid-October is sustainable are bound for disappointment, according to top investors at wealth management firm Glenmede. The current bear market (highlighted below in green) is 11 months in, and the S&P 500 is down 18% over that time. Glenmede"The current bear market appears to be close to 2/3rds of the way through the typical bear-market decline. The current market appears to be following a similar trajectory of an average historical bear market so far," they said. "We've had a nice little run here in the stock market — it's the third double-digit percentage gain since the bear market started," Doll said.
The S&P 500 is down 16% on the year as the Fed tightens policy to fight inflation. The S&P 500 fell as much as 25% this year as the Federal Reserve pulled its support for the US economy. To return to normal valuation levels, the market would have to fall 58% further from where it sits currently, he said. The most bearish strategists among major Wall Street institutions see the S&P 500 falling to around the 3,000, about -25% assuming a recession plays out. He's more bearish than Wilson in the short term, however, with a three-month price target of 3,600 for the S&P 500.
Jon Wolfenbarger thinks stock-market investors are still too optimistic that a bear market bottom is coming sometime in the immediate-to-near future. When bear markets occur when valuations are relatively high, the bear markets tend to drag on longer. The median bear market length during periods of high valuation among those listed above is 17 months, Wolfenbarger said, compared to 13 months when valuations are attractive. Given that the current market sell-off began amid some of the highest valuations in history, Wolfenbarger said he expects the bear market to last 17 months or longer. Wolfenbarger's views in contextIn June, Societe Generale conducted a similar analysis to Wolfenbarger's and looked at bear markets over the last 150 years.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFernandez: The Fed is telling us that while things are better, we're nowhere near where we want to beVictoria Fernandez of Crossmark Global Investments says the Fed likely isn't going to be happy with inflation at 5-6%, and will continue to push rates higher, which may lead to a shallow recession next year.
But according to Bill Smead, a 42-year market vet and the founder and CIO of Smead Capital Management, the group is still overvalued. Smead Capital Management"As you can see, it took years for the tech bubble stocks of 1999 to get interesting. Smead also included a chart on the average valuation of the top 100 tech stocks, which still shows historically elevated levels. Smead Capital Management"Hannibal Lecter said to Clarisse in the movie The Silence of the Lambs, 'Have the lambs stopped screaming?' Smead's views in contextSmead's view that tech stocks are overvalued is shared by some.
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