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For the bottom 40% by income that means a smaller slice of the pie even as their net worth has risen at the swiftest pace in years. said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington-based think tank focused on labor issues. The newest data suggest that trends of higher wealth and income concentration survived pretty much intact. Yet Dynan noted that the rise in wealth over that period was 30% for families in the 80th to 99th income percentiles and more than 40% for the top 1%. Reuters GraphicsOLD TRENDS HOLD FASTThe Fed's quarterly data on wealth distribution estimates asset holdings and liabilities across racial, educational, age and income groups, and their shares of national totals.

Persons: Elise Gould, They've, Biden, Karen Dynan, Dynan, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Census Bureau, Economic Policy Institute, United Auto Workers, Harvard University, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington

"The markets will also be following what the scenarios are looking like," he said, and whether, after decades of instability in the Middle East, this outbreak of violence evolves differently. "The question will be is this iteration something that will throw the long-term equilibrium out of balance?" "The conflict poses a risk of higher oil prices, and risks to both inflation and the growth outlook," said Karim Basta, chief economist at III Capital Management, leaving the Fed to sort out whether higher prices or slower growth is the greater concern. To the extent the Israeli war with Hamas heightens concerns about the global economy it could reverse that trend if capital rushes towards the relative safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, as often happens at times of potential crisis. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ronen, It’s, Agustin Carstens, Carl Tannenbaum, Karim Basta, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Federal Reserve, Northern Trust, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, III Capital Management, Fed, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Sderot, Israel, Ukraine, U.S, Morocco, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gulf, Suez

[1/2] An employee hiring sign is seen in a window of a business in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., April 7, 2023. The report will be released at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT), based on surveys conducted before a United Auto Workers strike could influence the outcome. "We think the Fed would like to see a bit more evidence of cooling labor market conditions than we expect," Oxford Economics lead U.S. economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote this week. But she said that wage gains were likely to prove a bit stronger than the month before. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Nancy Vanden Houten, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wage, Fed, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, Oxford

[1/2] A view shows the entrance of the venue for the upcoming meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, following last month's deadly earthquake, in Marrakech, Morocco October 1, 2023. Reuters GraphicsThe yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond this week pierced 5% for the first time since 2007. Long-term U.S. yields have climbed roughly 1 percentage point in the past three months compared with a single quarter-percentage-point Fed rate hike during that period. Keeping the world's largest economy out of recession provides steadier demand for other countries' exports, as well as more certainty as Fed rate hikes hit a stopping point. The fallout depends on "how much further, and how quickly, bond yields rise," they said.

Persons: Abdelhak, China's, Goldman Sachs, Gene Tannuzzo, Tannuzzo, Karen Dynan, it's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., Treasuries, Reuters, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Columbia Threadneedle, Harvard University, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Capital Economics, Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, U.S, Washington, California

It needs to translate into changes in economic outcomes," Bostic said in comments to reporters alongside the release of a new policy essay. Part of that adaptation is how the Fed's short-term benchmark is translated ultimately into mortgage rates, corporate bonds yields, and other securities that influence economic activity. In separate comments, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she similarly is watching how the rise in bond yields will play out, even though she feels the Fed's policy rate still needs to rise. It may well be that the Fed's hawkish rate posture is no longer the primary impetus for the rise in yields. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Dan Burns; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael, Bostic, Clodagh, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Mester, Torsten Slok, Slok, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Atlanta Federal Reserve, U.S, Cleveland Fed, Apollo Global Management, Reuters, Fitch, Treasury Department, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Dublin, Ireland, Atlanta, China, York

It needs to translate into changes in economic outcomes," Bostic said in comments to reporters. "I don't think the degree of response to date has been out of bounds" of what would happen "in an ordinary tightening cycle." But even though he agreed that recent jumps in long-term yields have been unusual, Bostic joined several of his colleagues in downplaying their relevance to policy - at least so far. "There is a lot going on and I cannot say I have all the answers," Bostic said. The things we are looking at is the pace at which the economy slows," not the rates themselves.

Persons: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael, Bostic, Clodagh, Raphael Bostic, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Atlanta Fed, Thomson Locations: Dublin, Ireland, U.S, China

YORK, Pa., Oct 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is still dealing with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said during a meeting with community and business leaders in York, Pennsylvania. "We are still coming through the other side of the pandemic," Powell said, noting labor shortages in healthcare, ongoing difficulties with access to child care, and other issues heightened by the health crisis. He did not comment on current monetary policy or the economic outlook in brief opening remarks. Reporting by Howard Schneider; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Howard Schneider, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Thomson Locations: Pa, U.S, York , Pennsylvania

Families are "squeezing to make ends meet," caught between rising prices and a lack of accessible child care, Kim Bracey, chief executive of the YWCA York, told Powell. Julie Keene, owner of Flinchbaugh’s Orchard, zeroed in on inflation, and pressed Powell on the uncertain environment businesses have having to navigate. In conversations with shopkeepers, Powell and Harker focused on aspects of the businesses and the owners' backgrounds - not inflation or the impact of interest rates. Speaking with Reuters ahead of their arrival at her shop she said high interest rates were pressing her hard. "I mean, lower the interest rates," she said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Evelyn Hockstein, Powell, Kim Bracey, Julie Keene, Keene, Bracey, Gallup, Alan Greenspan, Patrick Harker, Michelle Wright, Mane, Wright, Harker, Drayden, Jennifer Heasley, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Monday, YWCA York, Philadelphia Fed, Luxe, York Central Market, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Pennsylvania, York , Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Flinchbaugh’s Orchard, zeroed, Keene, Powell

Consumer price inflation rose for the second straight month, to 3.7% in August versus 3.2% in July. While the overall picture is somewhat mixed, the inflation data in recent months likely doesn't change the policy outlook. Reuters GraphicsRETAIL SALES (Released Sept. 14, next release Oct. 17):Retail sales rose more than expected in August, increasing 0.6%. Investors viewed the overall data as leaning against any further Fed rate increases. Weekly data on bank lending shows bank credit has fallen on a year-over-year basis since the middle of July.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, University of Michigan, Reuters Graphics, Investors, Labor, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Silicon

The central bank's quest for a "soft landing" of more slowly rising prices and continued economic growth looks increasingly probable. In fact, the U.S. may hit a sweet spot just as the 2024 presidential election campaign crescendos next year. Rather than cheering, though, after years of economic turbulence since the coronavirus pandemic erupted in 2020, Americans grumble, at least if you ask them about the economy. With fast rising prices and the end of an array of pandemic-era government benefit programs, inflation-adjusted household income fell last year, and the poverty rate increased. A Biden adviser said the White House understands that the economy and inflation are a critical issue, and the campaign has a big media push planned on "Bidenomics."

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Jerome Powell, crescendos, grumble, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Jimmy Carter's, Ronald Reagan, George H, Bush, Democrat Bill Clinton, Clinton, Biden, They've, that's, Robert Shiller, stupidly, Shiller, Powell, Howard Schneider, Trevor Hunnicutt, Heather Timmons, Paul Simao Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Rights, . Federal, Reuters, Republican, Biden, Democrat, U.S . Consumer, Yale University, McKinsey & Company, McKinsey, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, U.S

"I expect rates may have to stay higher, and for longer, than previous projections had suggested," said Collins. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are scheduled to make remarks later on Friday as the Fed's "blackout" period on post-meeting policy comments lifted. The central bank's decision to hold its benchmark overnight interest rate steady this week was unanimous. Collins does not currently have a vote on rate policy under a Fed system that rotates votes among the 12 reserve bank presidents year by year. New projections issued at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday showed 12 of 19 Fed officials expect one additional quarter point rate increase this year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Michelle Bowman, Susan Collins, Collins, Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, Bowman, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, . Federal, Independent Community Bankers of, Maine Bankers Association, Boston, Fed, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Thomson Locations: Independent Community Bankers of Colorado

The spokesperson, who would not speak for direct attribution, said the staff cuts represented a combination of attrition, including retirements, and layoffs. While small compared to the size of the Fed, it is the first time budgeted headcount has fallen since 2010. SELF-FUNDEDThe staff reductions are happening at a sensitive time for the Fed. Unlike federal agencies that spend tax dollars allocated by Congress, the Fed is self-funding. In most years the Fed generates a profit that is turned over to the U.S. Treasury.

Persons: Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S . Federal, Fed, of Governors, Reuters, Governors, Congress, U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, Congress

The Fed expects to get inflation back to its 2% target in 2026, which is later than some officials had thought possible. Financial markets had widely expected that the Fed would leave rates unchanged. Ahead of the Fed meeting, investors had been banking on significant Fed rate cuts next year, an expectation clouded by the projections that show 10 of 19 officials see the policy rate remaining above 5% through next year. Federal funds futures showed traders had downgraded their estimates of Fed rate cuts ahead. The Fed statement was approved unanimously after a two-day meeting that marked new Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's debut on the central bank policymaking stage.

Persons: Jerome Powell, We're, Bond, Stocks, Chris Wattie, I've, Powell, Olu Sonola, Omair Sharif, Adriana Kugler's, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Market, Reuters Graphics, Reserve, REUTERS, Fed, Reuters, Fitch, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Washington , DC

The new projections and the Fed's latest policy statement will be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to hold a press conference half an hour later. With inflation slowing, that would allow interest rates to decline also. The last set of projections envisioned that the Fed's policy rate would fall by a percentage point in 2024, and by 1.2 percentage points in 2025 to end that year in the 3.25%-3.50% range. It hasn't happened so far, with economic growth through the first half of the year above the 1.8% rate that Fed officials view as the economy's non-inflationary trend, and continuing that way through the third quarter.

Persons: Matthew Luzzetti, Jerome Powell, Powell, Joseph Davis, Davis, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Commerce, Vanguard, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON

WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday with officials widely expected to keep interest rates on hold for now, but also flagging in new economic projections whether they feel rates still need to rise further before the end of the year. A new policy statement and interest rate decision will be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Wednesday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. to elaborate. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsIn June the Fed paused, but the quarterly economic projections accompanying that decision showed 12 of 18 policymakers still anticipated two more quarter-point rate increases by the end of the year. But how fast and when that occurs remains a matter of debate within the Fed and depends on how fast inflation falls. But it may mean rates stay higher for longer than the public currently expects.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Morgan, Michael Feroli, Feroli, Powell, Michael Gapen, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Bank of America, Thomson Locations: synch

Student loan repayments restart in October after a three-year suspension during the COVID-19 pandemic. In isolation, none would likely shift policymakers' sense of the short-term risks or change their focus on quelling still-elevated inflation. By Goldman's estimate the economy would still be growing at a 1.3% annual rate at that point. But the amounts they see sliced from GDP are more than the 1% growth rate Fed officials expected the economy to muster as of June, and beyond many private forecasts as well. Some economists say the resumption of student loan repayments for tens of millions of borrowers may already be reshaping behavior.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Vincent Reinhart, Reinhart, Michael Pearce, Ian Shepherdson, Kieran Clancy, They've, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, Federal, Republicans, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Mellon, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Congressional, U.S . Department, Education, Thomson

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsMonth-to-month inflation numbers "will inevitably hop around," wrote Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson, who sees underlying consumer inflation nevertheless slowing to a "benign" level of below 3% by early next year. Since their meeting in July, only two Fed policymakers have said they felt rates do not need to rise further, while others noted their outlook for slowing inflation was built around a slightly higher federal funds rate. Overall bank credit has been falling on a year-over-year basis since mid-July, evidence of financial firms tightening access either through higher rates or stricter standards. By and large Fed officials feel the economy can grow about 1.8% a year with inflation at the 2% target and assuming "appropriate monetary policy." The outlook has diminished prospects for a U.S. recession, but may well keep Fed concerns about high - or higher - inflation alive.

Persons: Jessica Rinaldi, Ian Shepherdson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Torsten Slok, Goldman Sachs, Steven Blitz, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Investors, Apollo Global Management, Lombard Chief U.S, Fed, Thomson Locations: Flushing , New York, U.S

The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed 2.3% of nonfarm payroll workers quit their jobs in July, down from a rate as high as 3% during the pandemic-driven "Great Resignation." The hiring rate last month hit its lowest point since April 2020. The JOLTS data for July "are moderating back to either pre-pandemic levels or levels that we have not seen in quite some time. Because the 401(k) data tends to capture higher-paying jobs, slowed hiring in that cohort could be particularly relevant to the Fed's inflation outlook. Data later this week will provide an updated view on inflation as well as for hiring and wages in August.

Persons: Fiona Greig, Greig, Christopher Waller, Beveridge, Oren Klachkin, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor, Reuters, Vanguard, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Conference, Fed, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: U.S, joblessness

That sobering view of a post-pandemic global economy emerged from research organized by the Kansas City Federal Reserve and debated here this past weekend. "This puts us in a bleak setting, thinking about the parts of the world that are labor rich but capital poor," he said. "I do remember a time, maybe a more naive time...when more trade would create friends," said Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the Bank of England. If there was a potential bright spot, it was around the discussion of advances in artificial intelligence as a possible driver of higher productivity. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: JACKSON, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Maurice Obstfeld, Barry Eichengreen, Eswar Prasad, Donald Trump, Biden, Jared Bernstein, Bernstein, Ben Broadbent, Ngozi Okonjo, Iweala, Trump, Nela Richardson, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Kansas City Federal Reserve, U.S, Monetary Fund, Fed, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, University of California, Cornell University, U.S . White House Council, Economic, Biden, Bank of England, Trade Organization, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, Ukraine, China, West, Washington . China, U.S, Berkeley, Japan, Nigeria, Russian, Europe

"The economy is a global economy, right? Yet Fed officials remain puzzled, and somewhat concerned, over conflicting signals in the incoming data. But gross domestic product is still expanding at a pace well above what Fed officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%. Difficulties in China, meanwhile, may drag down global growth the longer they fester. Its slowdown after a short-lived growth burst earlier this year could pinch Germany's exports and slow Europe's growth, for instance.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann Saphir, JACKSON, Jackson, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Loretta Mester, Mester, Lagarde, Biden, Nathan Sheets, Powell, Gourinchas, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Monetary Fund, Cleveland Fed, Reuters, Citigroup, Consumer, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming, Brazil, Chile, China, Ukraine

"The longer we let inflation remain above 2%, we're building in a higher and higher price level," she said, and that hurts American households. "I'm going to have to reassess that because, again, it's going to be, how quickly do you think inflation is moving down?" "I do not want to be in a position of prematurely loosening policy," Mester said. Fed projections submitted in June show a median forecast for 2.1% inflation by the end of 2025; Mester said hers was for 2% inflation. The Fed's next and possibly last rate hike "doesn't necessarily have to be September, but I think this year," she said.

Persons: JACKSON, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Loretta Mester, Mester, Ann Saphir, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: , WYOMING, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

It is not even certain that the decline in China's U.S. import share represents a true delinking, they said. Yet in the background, the researchers noted that China had "stepped up" its trade and investment activity with Vietnam and Mexico, as well as other countries. "The U.S. could well remain indirectly connected to China through its trade and global value chain links with these third-party countries," they argued. Prices for goods from some countries, moreover, were beginning to rise. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: JACKSON, deglobalization, Laura Alfaro, Davin Chor, Alfaro, Chor, What's, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Biden, Trump, Federal, Harvard Business School, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth, Fed, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, China, Ukraine, freefall, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Vietnam, Mexico

"We will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data," Powell said in a keynote address to the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. "It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so. The Fed has raised rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022, and inflation by the Fed's preferred gauge has moved down to 3.3% from its peak of 7% last summer. Although the decline was a "welcome development," Powell said, inflation "remains too high." Fed policymakers will also meet in November and December.

Persons: JACKSON, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, Elizabeth Frantz, “ Powell, Michael Arone, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Michael S, Lewis Krauskopf, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve, Committee, REUTERS, Fed, State Street Global Advisors, Cleveland Fed, Chicago Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, U.S, Washington , U.S

The U.S. economy has avoided a threatened banking crisis and financial markets have not only aligned with the Federal Reserve's tight-credit policies but of late even helped the process by bidding up market interest rates. "I think Powell’s main effort is going to be explaining to what degree you want to hold (interest rates) higher for longer in the current outlook." Investors in contracts tied to the Fed's benchmark interest rate currently expect the Fed to begin reducing the policy rate next year from the current level set between 5.25% and 5.5%. Fed officials in fact have begun discussing the possibility of rate cuts down the road, at least in the context of steadily falling inflation. If inflation does decline as expected, Fed officials including Powell have suggested rate reductions might be appropriate to maintain a roughly constant inflation-adjusted "real rate."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jim Urquhart, JACKSON, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, who've, isn't, Adam Posen, William English, Donald Kohn, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Kansas, Fed, Northern Trust, Bank of England's, Committee, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Yale School of Management, Brookings Institution, Thomson Locations: Teton, Jackson , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming, Washington

Even as inflation has slowed from last summer's 40-year highs, Fed officials have been reluctant to declare their job finished until there are clearer signs the economy is slowing. If, as some argue, the interest rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy has shifted higher, it means Fed policy is putting less pressure on the economy than expected. Partly to let its policies play out, the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates on hold at its Sept. 19-20 meeting. Will the bulk of policymakers feel higher rates will be needed to finish the job? "I do expect some rise in unemployment will be required to get underlying inflation into a zone where the Fed is comfortable."

Persons: Chris Albrecht, what's, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, Charles Evans, Richard Clarida, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Caesars, Richmond Fed, Reuters, Fed, Chicago Fed, Workers, U.S, Thomson Locations: DANVILLE, Virginia, Danville , Virginia, Caesars Virginia, Danville, U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

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